[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bitebits]

[...] If we assume an average unwealthy investor whose cost basis is 200ksat and XMR is 10% of the portfolio [...]

You indicated before that currently you are not trading, but you must have studied the market well: that is just almost scary :p

I wonder though what differs for a 'wealthy' investor, the percentage or the cost basis? As well I can only assume that even when the percentage is lower?, the cost basis is higher since the buying has an influence on the market?

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[rpietila]

I wonder though what differs for a 'wealthy' investor, the percentage or the cost basis? As well I can only assume that even when the percentage is lower?, the cost basis is higher since the buying has an influence on the market?

During the accumulation phase which may or may not be ending, the global market cap of XMR has been <$10 million. What matters is that there is a declining return for a large, non-manipulative (non-strategic) investor, if they invest "too much" as a percentage of the total XMR in existence.

For a portfolio investor, seeking for profits in the long term, and not caring about the trading short term, it makes sense to buy 1-3% of the market cap, since that is an amount that can still be exited at some point. Buying 30% is not only being "a dinosaur in a china store" with huge slippage in the buy phase, but also it is impossible to sell such an amount.

So the issue is: buying 1-3% of all XMR has never costed more than $100k, so for a wealthy investor, let alone an institution, this is an insignificant fringe amount, and should not rationally cause an exit pressure even if it rises 10x to the current value.

The fundamentals of XMR can easily support 10-figure marketcap. We have just broken to 8 figures. When the rise takes place, the unwealthy should sell some to diversify, unless they want to keep XMR at 50%+ of their portfolio, which I do not recommend. For the wealthy, it just takes longer until XMR becomes 50% of their total assets, and when this becomes the case, they should start selling as well  

Even for me, XMR is not nearing 50% of my total, so there is no reason to sell (nor to buy more since I have what I need).

[griffen1102]

Can we break through this liquidity pool?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Obviosuly everybody decides their exit points individually.
My personal situation is, I am not thinking exiting Monero (=selling without a plan to rebuy the same amount or more later) any time soon even if Monero costs 10-50 usd each.
In fact, no reason to dump since when it is time to diversify, I hope I can do it without dumping (buying gold coins and other assets directly with XMR).
Also, I am working full time in two jobs which I love + I have several rental units around Finland which alone can sustain my lifestyle without working so I am not selling in the need of money but when others need some of my Moneros.
I know this might sound a scam but it really isn't. It is time to diversify when people are literally begging to be able to throw money into your bosoms (this is a sure sign of bubble, happened in dot-com-bubble 15 years ago people were sleeping in their sleeping bags so that they are able to invest in some kind of vague tech company that went 1-2 yrs later to bankcrupt).

[rpietila]

Actually TueCryptonaire seems a sensible guy. I was also regarded as a troll in the beginning 

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero mentioned:

https://bullbearanalytics.com/2016/02/25/the-bba-show-episode-5-hk-swans-monero/

(Starts from ~24:30)

[kurious]

Monero mentioned:

https://bullbearanalytics.com/2016/02/25/the-bba-show-episode-5-hk-swans-monero/

(Starts from ~24:30)

Nice!

"Light years ahead.."  these guys really get it and are big fans (for good, well-informed reasons)

[dEBRUYNE]

Dr. Nicolas T. Courtois, who spoke positvely about Monero before, has put out a 5 BTC bounty for discovery of attacks bugs or flaws in, among others, ring signatures:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48y9lm/dr_nicolas_t_courtois_who_spoke_positvely_about/

[e-coinomist]

Actually TueCryptonaire seems a sensible guy. I was also regarded as a troll in the beginning 

Congratulations for your accolade Sir TueCryptonaire, now your are a knight 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Buying under 100 usd XMR is a bargain.
The market cap of XMR with 100 usd and 18 000 000 emission means the value of XMR network is only 1.8 billion usd which is pretty conservative and IMO a price an institutional investor will see as a value play and still is able to increase the value at least 500-1000 times.
These are obviosuly best case scenarios and may now realize. However, better to keep the goals high so that we will achieve at least something.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Actually TueCryptonaire seems a sensible guy. I was also regarded as a troll in the beginning 

Congratulations for your accolade Sir TueCryptonaire, now your are a knight 

Hahaha! I am honored to be a knight! 

[dEBRUYNE]

Breaking out on high volume again:

[griffen1102]

Let the good times roll! I see there is a mini 10 btc wall that is now 19 @29189.

looks like that got eaten, not more significant walls until 297.2k sats (~9BTC)

[TrueCryptonaire]

Let the good times roll! I see there is a mini 10 btc wall that is now 19 @29189.

looks like that got eaten, not more significant walls until 297.2k sats (~9BTC)

LOL
XMR walls are worth of 4000 usd or less. 

[phishead]

Obviosuly everybody decides their exit points individually.
My personal situation is, I am not thinking exiting Monero (=selling without a plan to rebuy the same amount or more later) any time soon even if Monero costs 10-50 usd each.
In fact, no reason to dump since when it is time to diversify, I hope I can do it without dumping (buying gold coins and other assets directly with XMR).
Also, I am working full time in two jobs which I love + I have several rental units around Finland which alone can sustain my lifestyle without working so I am not selling in the need of money but when others need some of my Moneros.
I know this might sound a scam but it really isn't. It is time to diversify when people are literally begging to be able to throw money into your bosoms (this is a sure sign of bubble, happened in dot-com-bubble 15 years ago people were sleeping in their sleeping bags so that they are able to invest in some kind of vague tech company that went 1-2 yrs later to bankcrupt).

I agree, I would love to be at the point where I could buy an ounce of gold with a couple of my moneros... That's what I'm personally looking forward too... But as of now, I'm living from pay check to pay check, so unfortunately I don't even have the opportunity to buy more if I even wanted too.

[griffen1102]

Let the good times roll! I see there is a mini 10 btc wall that is now 19 @29189.

looks like that got eaten, not more significant walls until 297.2k sats (~9BTC)

LOL
XMR walls are worth of 4000 usd or less. 

Support was thin up here too, looks like someone is bashing price right now.

[Mr Felt]

Good quality discussion here recently.  Thanks for the edu - I'm learning tons.

Who are the most credible tweeters talking about xmr so I can follow and stay up to date there too (It is possible i'm following most of these folks already, but don't want to overlook anyone w/ really solid insights)?

[rdnkjdi]

Geez ... I guess I popped in just in time.

Should be an interesting year with the supply drying up and most of the accumulators sitting at a loss for the last year.  Doubt they are going to be in a hurry to sell.  .005 - .006 seems like a reasonable jump to me if btc keeps being dumb and eth stays pumped.

[novag]

If peoples have in ETH going to XMR, XMR will price rise to the moon!

[iCEBREAKER]

Actually TueCryptonaire seems a sensible guy. I was also regarded as a troll in the beginning 

iCEBREAKER's Razor:

"Sufficiently advanced thought leadership is indistinguishable from trolling."