[XMR] Monero Speculation

[boolberry]

Let's remember the present Dash pump started several hours after Monero broke through two huge points of resistance.

Unlike Monero's long-overdue upward correction, I don't think Dash's rise is organic.

It looks like Otoh is pumping Dash in a desperate attempt to keep the Evan's Gate cultists inside the compound, rather than leaving for the Wild & Free^® greener pastures of Monero Mountain.

Especially after the high-profile ShadowTrash debacle, I've been expecting an acceleration in the leakage from Dash's market cap into Monero's, and today's "me-too" try-hard Dash pump is just an insta-mine bagholder's futile effort to hold back the tide.

The timing seemed strange to me too. The only "justification" I saw for the DASH rise was some "technical analysis" on bitcointalk and a mention of how "ASICs will be great for the DASH network" in the Poloniex trollbox.  I don't really agree with either of those "justifications" and think your theory (whether stared by Otoh or someone else) is more likely.

Today was about Monero, not those who saw it moving upwards and decided to "follow" with a non organic pump hours later on much lower volume.

[1715231988]

1715231988

[iCEBREAKER]

The only question is what will be the new support after this? Hopefully more than 170-180k.

This assumes anon is the reason. My take is that the blocksize issue in Bitcoin is starting to be a significant factor here.

If anyone really cared about Bitcoin being smothered by popularity, Litecoin would be exploding because it's the logical first choice for substitution (IE marginal user spillover).

I'm trying to put some XMR profit into LTC, but just can't.

Why?  Because deep below the surface there are more subtle and powerful currents than the superficial eddies disturbing the surface foam....

"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  - Adam Back 2014

[ArticMine]

Monero has been rising so much that Crypto Kingdom is experiencing short-term pain with price adjustments.

Deflation has hit Crypto Kingdom. It could turn into hyper deflation.

CKG is still near ATH in fiat terms and up +272% y-o-y.

CON is unchanged.

Land price has suffered but it's harder to track. There is a great glut of land currently, but that's what I am buying. It is cheap, and Building module opens soon.

You were correct that we needed to devalue the consumer items.

Even at the current activity (which is a fraction of % of our target in 2 years) Town can pay the weekly 450 XMR on consols very easily even if XMR goes to 0.01, so you can buy as many as you can get. They will be harder to get in the future as:
1) Town costs are contracted in fiat, rising XMR means less XMR raised
2) Rising CON means less CON issued per XMR raised
=> causing a quadratic reduction on new issues.

When I am mentioning hyper deflation I mean in terms of Monero which is the currency of Crypto Kingdom. In terms of fiat I would expect most CK assets to rise in price except for basic consumer items which should be stable; other wise the game becomes very expensive to play.

When evaluating the ability of Town to pay the weekly 450 XMR on CON one has to consider scenarios where 1 XMR = 1 XBT, 1 XMR = 1000 EUR or more etc.

[ArticMine]

...

If anyone really cared about Bitcoin being smothered by popularity, Litecoin would be exploding because it's the logical first choice for substitution (IE marginal user spillover).

I'm trying to put some XMR profit into LTC, but just can't.

Why?  Because deep below the surface there are more subtle and powerful currents than the superficial eddies disturbing the surface foam....

"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  - Adam Back 2014

The market is not moving to Litecoin because Litecoin has fundamentally the same blocksize issue as Bitcoin. The market has chosen Ethereum and MaidSafeCoin even though both of these coins are designed to do something that is fundamentally different from Bitcoin. I suspect to a large degree this is because the market does not see a blocksize issue in either of these coins.

Time will tell but if the Market gets the idea that Monero has a solution to the Bitcoin blocksize issue watch out.

[rdnkjdi]

One thing I'm really curious about is how network security deals with so much less funding as block emissions tank.  I have been accumulating some before the pump due to bitcoin being seemingly incapable of doing simple sensible changes after years of debate.

Crypto has a bright future imo.  Bitcoin not so much.

[hiddensphinx]

shit i was sleeping! what happened? did the 200k wall finally get breached or is this just another pump?

steady rise would be much better imo

[iCEBREAKER]

If anyone really cared about Bitcoin being smothered by popularity, Litecoin would be exploding because it's the logical first choice for substitution (IE marginal user spillover).

I'm trying to put some XMR profit into LTC, but just can't.

Why?  Because deep below the surface there are more subtle and powerful currents than the superficial eddies disturbing the surface foam....

"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  - Adam Back 2014

The market is not moving to Litecoin because Litecoin has fundamentally the same blocksize issue as Bitcoin. The market has chosen Ethereum and MaidSafeCoin even though both of these coins are designed to do something that is fundamentally different from Bitcoin. I suspect to a large degree this is because the market does not see a blocksize issue in either of these coins.

Time will tell but if the Market gets the idea that Monero has a solution to the Bitcoin blocksize issue watch out.

We'll need a little more than Two Weeks of hype to establish any kind of market preference (as opposed to noisy pumping) for Maid.  I'm not even convinced Maid qualifies as an altcoin, despite the tenuous linking of its distributed storage system to the overcapitalized SafeCoin chimera.

If Maid is so great, why aren't cypherpunk/distributed p2p system luminaries like Bram Cohen, Prof. Szabo, and Dr. Back tweeting about it?

The general idea behind ETH is wildly popular, but it remains to be seen if Vitalik's specific enterprise is capable of bringing it to fruition.

Litecoin doesn't need to solve the (perhaps intractable/intrinsic) "blocksize issue."  It just needs to keep running and be available to absorb excluded marginal use cases as BTC fees inexorably rise.

But to your point, ETH and Maid do appear to be making the right kind of noises about fungibility and privacy (perhaps having learned from Bitcoin's present accession to the blockchain analysis industry).

[wpalczynski]

If anyone really cared about Bitcoin being smothered by popularity, Litecoin would be exploding because it's the logical first choice for substitution (IE marginal user spillover).

I'm trying to put some XMR profit into LTC, but just can't.

Why?  Because deep below the surface there are more subtle and powerful currents than the superficial eddies disturbing the surface foam....

"Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect."  - Adam Back 2014

The market is not moving to Litecoin because Litecoin has fundamentally the same blocksize issue as Bitcoin. The market has chosen Ethereum and MaidSafeCoin even though both of these coins are designed to do something that is fundamentally different from Bitcoin. I suspect to a large degree this is because the market does not see a blocksize issue in either of these coins.

Time will tell but if the Market gets the idea that Monero has a solution to the Bitcoin blocksize issue watch out.

We'll need a little more than Two Weeks of hype to establish any kind of market preference (as opposed to noisy pumping) for Maid.  I'm not even convinced Maid qualifies as an altcoin, despite the tenuous linking of its distributed storage system to the overcapitalized SafeCoin chimera.

If Maid is so great, why aren't cypherpunk/distributed p2p system luminaries like Bram Cohen, Prof. Szabo, and Dr. Back tweeting about it?

The general idea behind ETH is wildly popular, but it remains to be seen if Vitalik's specific enterprise is capable of bringing it to fruition.

Litecoin doesn't need to solve the (perhaps intractable/intrinsic) "blocksize issue."  It just needs to keep running and be available to absorb excluded marginal use cases as BTC fees inexorably rise.

But to your point, ETH and Maid do appear to be making the right kind of noises about fungibility and privacy (perhaps having learned from Bitcoin's present accession to the blockchain analysis industry).

I wonder what the chances are that if Bitcoin becomes the settlement layer due to high fees the regular daily transactions will go to LTC.

[iCEBREAKER]

I wonder what the chances are that if Bitcoin becomes the settlement layer due to high fees the regular daily transactions will go to LTC.

There's room for more than one settlement layer.  Litecoin and Primecoin can also easily provision Lightning-style payment channels.

So long as it enjoys the highest network hash rate and concomitant security, Bitcoin is poised to be the backbone, or Mother Of All (Transparent) Settlement Networks.

Of course that's only addressing the visible tip of the financial/socioeconomic iceberg.  Meanwhile, Monero is preparing to be the Father Of All (Opaque) Settlement Networks.   

Freedom is on the march; central banks tremble.

[TrueCryptonaire]

A great buying opportunity now in XMR.
In moments like these of a small breathers it is time to reload the bags full of treasures.

It is a sign of a bear market when XMR is rising "only" 24 % in 24 hrs.

[ArticMine]

One thing I'm really curious about is how network security deals with so much less funding as block emissions tank.  I have been accumulating some before the pump due to bitcoin being seemingly incapable of doing simple sensible changes after years of debate.

Crypto has a bright future imo.  Bitcoin not so much.

In Monero there is a fixed minimum tail emission to ensure that there is a mining incentive to secure the network. This allows for adaptive blocksize limits without jeopardizing the security of the network. In Bitcoin this is not the case and the theory is that a fee market will somehow "develop" to address this. The trouble is it is very unclear how this market is supposed to develop and at the same time allow for Bitcoin to scale. This lies at the heart of the blocksize dispute, and is why so many are very afraid to allow a blocksize increase in Bitcoin.

[aminorex]

Either the jump was an inevitable correction because we were operating at suppressed levels for too long, or it was an impulsive overshoot, due to a large accumulator, and once they are full, the trend will be towards an intermediate level -- both could be true simultaneously, in fact.  Level bumps like that tend to cluster, so the probability of another level bump is elevated, but declining over time, until the next event creates the opportunity for a cluster to form.  The other major forces driving price are declining supply and spreading information / sentiment.  Since these are all positive, I would say the situation is broadly bullish, just on market dynamics alone, disregarding technology and infrastructure progress, competitive landscape, &c.

240k-260k trading range seems well stocked with liquidity.  A lot of ask has been consumed, about a quarter of it -- the quarter which was "realistic" in ambition -- i.e. devoid of longer-term vision, hot, fast money -- weak hands.  But the bid sum has generally been growing by large increments-- now about 20x greater in USD terms than it was a year ago (when USD was weaker than today).  I reduced a wee bit in the 270s -- it seemed the responsible thing to do, for everyone concerned -- but I'm starting to feel pretty good about this level, sociologically, so I will be adding my support back.  Probably the hot money portion of that bid will drain away when they feel the jump phase is over (assuming no jump cluster forms), and get bored.  That will create the opportunity to fill low-ball orders occasionally, so a ladder strategy seems likely to play well as the noise tends towards homoskedasticity.

If we do see a cluster of level jumps in the near future, I hope everyone with large bags will try to share a bit, yes, but not too much:  Keep in mind that large jumps are due to large accumulators.  Sharing with them is not as beneficial to the development of the economy as is sharing with myriads of smaller players.  Every XMR denominated business needs XMR paying customers.  Yes, adding a whale to the network can sometimes do great things -- but only if that whale is a supernode, a highly connected vertex in the graph of economic interactions.  If the whale just sits on a big bag, all they have done is reduced supply and hence bumped the level.  Mostly we need lots of little people, consumers.  People who eat lunch in Brussels, get therapy in Manhattan, or need VPN links, wall art, medical cannabis, whatever.  For that reason, I feel more generous when the price trend is more gradual, more diffuse, but very strong.

[opennux]

A great buying opportunity now in XMR.
In moments like these of a small breathers it is time to reload the bags full of treasures.

It is a sign of a bear market when XMR is rising "only" 24 % in 24 hrs.

For all the shit people give you, deserved or not, you often make me lol. I think you're also having a pretty fun time. 

Sometimes I think you're just hitting a button on a statement generator and more often that not sounding like a bot. But still, it's good fun!

[owm123]

A great buying opportunity now in XMR.
In moments like these of a small breathers it is time to reload the bags full of treasures.

It is a sign of a bear market when XMR is rising "only" 24 % in 24 hrs.

I would say the good opportunity was yesterday, before the increase. Now I would just wait and see where it goes. I think xmr will go down, but not less than 200k in near future. So while its 250k now, I would not buy. Just my speculation:-)

[aminorex]

Some wild action.  Bid side passed 1000 BTC for a while.  Probably margin long action, which does not bode well for stability.  Most of those punters will lose money, and sell their XMR too cheap.  Definitely time to place low-ball bids.

[mathgal23]

246-250k will first act as major support zone now, because that was the 2nd breakout zone on high volume, which already has been tested twice by dumps on high volume. If that breaks 210-214k will probably act as support zone, because that was the 1st breakout zone on high volume.

Maybe I am overly optimistic but with so many good things in the pipeline we may never see 210-214k again.

[rpietila]

Either the jump was an inevitable correction because we were operating at suppressed levels for too long, or it was an impulsive overshoot

We are still in the quantum foam territory where the price does not matter. In the future, it will be higher than today, or nothing. So only the quantity matters: if you bought those 10k BTC in 2010, or not. Many could have, but did not.

Just replace BTC with XMR and 2010 with 2015.

For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position (unless lazy and does not care about diversification, or needs to keep the wealth private).

The quantum foam territory will end when we make ATH.

[klee]

Either the jump was an inevitable correction because we were operating at suppressed levels for too long, or it was an impulsive overshoot

We are still in the quantum foam territory where the price does not matter. In the future, it will be higher than today, or nothing. So only the quantity matters: if you bought those 10k BTC in 2010, or not. Many could have, but did not.

Just replace BTC with XMR and 2010 with 2015.

For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position (unless lazy and does not care about diversification, or needs to keep the wealth private).

The quantum foam territory will end when we make ATH.

Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually).

Maybe someone should sell half there.

IMO it is 100k satoshi.

So at 1M everybody sell half lol

[rpietila]

For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position

Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually).

Maybe someone should sell half there.

IMO it is 100k satoshi.

So at 1M everybody sell half lol

I don't mean that you sell in chunks of half of your position. You can as well divide the selling more evenly, but always sell at ATH, which provides more coins to the market when they need it, and diversifies your portfolio when you need it.

Many who are reading this are behind their accumulation phase already. We had 2 years of cheap coins so you have to be slow to not have time to buy what you wanted. If we assume an average unwealthy investor whose cost basis is 200ksat and XMR is 10% of the portfolio, the reduction of position by half until the time it is 2M makes perfect sense. If this does not happen, XMR becomes 50% of the portfolio which is rather much.

Btw, while I see the latest action as part of the quantum foam, technicals still apply and the intraday triple top at the historical strong resistance zone of 275k indicates a Fib retracement in the following days, my target is 230k.

If it is breached however, next stop is 400-430k. Place your bets if you are onto trading.

[smooth]

For every 10x in price, it is prudent to share half of the position

Where would be the x10 base objectively? (For XMR in general, not individually).

Maybe someone should sell half there.

IMO it is 100k satoshi.

So at 1M everybody sell half lol

I don't mean that you sell in chunks of half of your position. You can as well divide the selling more evenly, but always sell at ATH, which provides more coins to the market when they need it, and diversifies your portfolio when you need it.

Many who are reading this are behind their accumulation phase already. We had 2 years of cheap coins so you have to be slow to not have time to buy what you wanted. If we assume an average unwealthy investor whose cost basis is 200ksat and XMR is 10% of the portfolio, the reduction of position by half until the time it is 2M makes perfect sense. If this does not happen, XMR becomes 50% of the portfolio which is rather much.

Btw, while I see the latest action as part of the quantum foam, technicals still apply and the intraday triple top at the historical strong resistance zone of 275k indicates a Fib retracement in the following days, my target is 230k.

If it is breached however, next stop is 400-430k. Place your bets if you are onto trading.

Agree.

I think it will either spike just above 300 (320) or above 350 (360).

klee, red is not allowed except for moderation. I deleted your post but quoted it fully above using blue instead