[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rdnkjdi]

I've made 2% in 20 days lending to some dude ... wonder if he forgot he borrowed em?

Many times when I checked XMR lending rates have actually been lower than BTC lending rates.

I'm actually really puzzled by poloniex's handling of the situation.  It seems if a borrower agrees to pay .1% a week ago and today there are multiple loans for .03% that poloniex would borrow an available .03%, kick back the borrowers .1% and pocket the .07% difference.

Very confusing to me why I am going on 20 days at .1% with XMR.

[Monerobuyer0]

I've made 2% in 20 days lending to some dude ... wonder if he forgot he borrowed em?

Many times when I checked XMR lending rates have actually been lower than BTC lending rates.

I'm actually really puzzled by poloniex's handling of the situation.  It seems if a borrower agrees to pay .1% a week ago and today there are multiple loans for .03% that poloniex would borrow an available .03%, kick back the borrowers .1% and pocket the .07% difference.

Very confusing to me why I am going on 20 days at .1% with XMR.

Was your loan period less than that?  Do you have autorenew on?
Thats a long time for that guy to hold a short, what a silly trader.  He must be desperately hoping it will come back down.

[smooth]

I've made 2% in 20 days lending to some dude ... wonder if he forgot he borrowed em?

Many times when I checked XMR lending rates have actually been lower than BTC lending rates.

I'm actually really puzzled by poloniex's handling of the situation.  It seems if a borrower agrees to pay .1% a week ago and today there are multiple loans for .03% that poloniex would borrow an available .03%, kick back the borrowers .1% and pocket the .07% difference.

Very confusing to me why I am going on 20 days at .1% with XMR.

It doesn't work that way. Only when the trade is closed or the term expires is the loan paid back.

[explorer]

...

The trouble with CDN is that (despite the recent bounce ) it is on a downward trajectory against USD.  Holding it is a losing proposition. I bought some more BTC the other day just to take advantage of what I guessed to be a CDN high mark.  So far so good.  That BTC is easily and quickly  tradable for XMR or USD for  very reasonable fees, compared to CDN in the legacy banking system.  Days and days to transfer with many times higher fees.  WTF.  Might as well courier bullion.  CDN limit buy BTC right at market, then after a couple dollar rise (typically within a few hours) to more than cover fees, into USD where it can more safely wait for an entry point that I like.  Covoluted, but I dislike losing 1% overnight holding CDN just because oil dropped 50 cents.

You mean CAD. For someone in Canada I would argue that holding CAD can make sense over USD, especially if the idea is to hedge a significant XMR position. My take is that the over the medium to long term the fundamentals of the Canadian economy are stronger than those of the US economy, the Canadian banking system has historically been safer than the US banking system and last but not least CAD does not have the loss of reserve currency status risks associated with USD. When holding gold was made illegal in the United States in the 1930's many Americans kept their gold in Canada. The social and political risks can also be lower in Canada that in the United States.

As for XBT when it takes a day to get one confirmation from the Bitcoin network, as has recently been the case, the legacy fiat banking system actually becomes competitive,

Ultimately this is about one's comfort level. My comfort level is stronger with the smaller currencies, XMR and CAD than with the larger currencies XBT and USD.  

Edit: I am not interested in day trading here but rather in holding over the medium to long term.

    Unfortunately I don't hold a significant position in anything to hedge right now, though I'm getting a foothold again this last year or so.  For what I do have, I feel that CAD is  a poor choice in the next 6-12 months at least.  As a resource based economy, we are in a world of hurt.  I have zero faith in CDN banks or government; they think they are going to grow the economy by doubling down on infrastructure spending, while resource markets dwindle to nothing    I disagree on the long term.  CDN economy either goes drastically down before the US, or with it.  It certainly will not stand without it. If When USD starts to crack up, its time to divest ALL fiat, because not only is the world on fire, but the fall into the sea has begun.  I don't see that happening inside of 12 months, though I wouldn't want to bet on anything over 24 months at this time.  There is still considerable capital inflow to USD, and more to come as the world burns.  Interesting Times, to say the least.

  XBT has been questionable to me since it's fungibility came blatantly into question with coinbase et al and has not reassured me since.  That doesn't preclude a new XBT bubble, however, as market valuations have little to do with fundamentals, it seems.   Every day the case for XMR gets reinforced by TPTB, as capital controls, taxation, and surveillance spiral out of control.  It may be wishful thinking on my part, but aside from tangibles, there is no better choice than XMR.  Profit is incidental, though growth is necessary for the security and longevity of the project.  All we can do is position ourselves as best we can to survive and prosper.  Most people won't, but hopefully enough recognize the potential here to build a thriving economy outside the flames of the legacy system.

[smooth]

I've made 2% in 20 days lending to some dude ... wonder if he forgot he borrowed em?

Many times when I checked XMR lending rates have actually been lower than BTC lending rates.

Yes that is usually the case. There is relatively little interest in shorting XMR most of the time, while people are very happy to short BTC* against whatever hot coin is being pumped.

* aka buying on margin.

[slapper]

Looks like someone is butthurt because I didn't answer him.

I wasn't looking for an answer from you. Don't flatter yourself. It was a stab at your imaginary trade, something you are always so eager to point out how you are doing, because again .. Daddy didn't care 

BTW Slapper You have been on ignore for so long I forgot about you. If You hadn't been quoted I would not have looked at your post history to see what gems it contained and found that one. They are rather childish and transparent still. You should work on that and one day maybe you'll get un-ignored and replied to by other than new people.

The inner child in you is what we all enjoy. Tell us again if you also won a candy today, don't hold back.

I only day traded a few times the last month to increase my holdings without using coinbase.

Of course you did. Daddy will be proud. Come back again tomorrow and let us know how you did. With screenshots, so others can also applaud. Lets keep selling to the next noob in this thread and we will all get rich. XMR ATH baby !!

[aminorex]

I don't see that happening inside of 12 months

12 months from now we might be close to the third month of a Trump presidency.  Or, depending on his choice of V.P., a Sarah Palin presidency.

Positive for XMR?

[Monerobuyer0]

20k sell wall.  A chance for Heuristic to buy back in.

[nioc]

I don't see that happening inside of 12 months

12 months from now we might be close to the third month of a Trump presidency.  Or, depending on his choice of V.P., a Sarah Palin presidency.

Positive for XMR?

It seems that Uruguay is nice.

Edit:  once more I nibbled while I slept.  It was my last, no more btc on exchange, and lowest bid of the last days.

[lolikop]

Why this sell wall of 19k? i can only think of 1 answer XMR is gonna skyrocket with lots of green fuel

[Monerobuyer0]

Why this sell wall of 19k? i can only think of 1 answer XMR is gonna skyrocket with lots of green fuel

It took it like 15 minutes to get bought.

[wpalczynski]

Why this sell wall of 19k? i can only think of 1 answer XMR is gonna skyrocket with lots of green fuel

Very nice gift.

[lolikop]

Wall gone and after 5 min 13k XMR sold lol someone is really trying to keep the price down but unfortunately will not succeed

[meme magic]

I've made 2% in 20 days lending to some dude ... wonder if he forgot he borrowed em?

Many times when I checked XMR lending rates have actually been lower than BTC lending rates.

I'm actually really puzzled by poloniex's handling of the situation.  It seems if a borrower agrees to pay .1% a week ago and today there are multiple loans for .03% that poloniex would borrow an available .03%, kick back the borrowers .1% and pocket the .07% difference.

Very confusing to me why I am going on 20 days at .1% with XMR.

It doesn't work that way. Only when the trade is closed or the term expires is the loan paid back.

I also have a few .1% loans out for 20 days and am looking forward to the 25/26 when its due back.

[dEBRUYNE]

Edit: Is this acceptable for holding a decent stash for long term storage?

https://moneroaddress.org/


Is this the best and safest way?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48cgmd/an_extensive_guide_for_securely_generating_an/

Yes and yes. The guide I made (big thanks to GingerAle also for the vids + descriptions) basically ensures that the only way your coins could get stolen is physical access, which is extremely rare.

I should clarify that I think it is only acceptable for holding a decent stash if you use the guide's method. This is my opinion though and the guide is kind of for extreme paranoia, but better safe than sorry.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Added: BTW I hold no XMR atm. Fucking shark this morning. !@#$%#%!#@@%#@%

Teach me to try to help suppress while I buy to stop the bots.

Hello friend, thank you very much for the sell wall to help me get in with less slippage.  I appreciated it.  It has been very hard to get very much Monero, you have to wait days for a significant dump.  You won't be getting that XMR back from me, but maybe some weak hand will be kind enough to let you back in by putting up another sell wall or dumping into your buy.


As Monero rises it will leave behind part of its community who sold too much along the way, and never got the pullback they needed.  This is inevitable, some of the people posting now in this thread are going to mistime their trading and lose their Monero, and watch in agony for years as it rises.  But they will be replaced with new people as we grow.


I would recommend that we all limit our XMR trading sells to a reasonable percentage of our Monero, and if we mess up and can't get it back, hold on to what remains even harder.  This is better for Monero in the long term than losing some of its strong community members to their trading mistakes.  

You are so right. Monero is pretty hard to acquire any significiant amount without causing the price to rise. Even buying 1000 XMR will have an impact on price without sell walls near the spot.
I agree that we need to say farewell to part of the community on the way to the moon. I am sure some of people will sell all their coins and get replaced by several more coin holders. That's life, and the sellers are the ones who regret the most in the end when looking how rich they could have been by being a bit more patient and perhaps adding their collections a bit every day.

[explorer]

Added: BTW I hold no XMR atm. Fucking shark this morning. !@#$%#%!#@@%#@%

Teach me to try to help suppress while I buy to stop the bots.

Hello friend, thank you very much for the sell wall to help me get in with less slippage.  I appreciated it.  It has been very hard to get very much Monero, you have to wait days for a significant dump.  You won't be getting that XMR back from me, but maybe some weak hand will be kind enough to let you back in by putting up another sell wall or dumping into your buy.


As Monero rises it will leave behind part of its community who sold too much along the way, and never got the pullback they needed.  This is inevitable, some of the people posting now in this thread are going to mistime their trading and lose their Monero, and watch in agony for years as it rises.  But they will be replaced with new people as we grow.


I would recommend that we all limit our XMR trading sells to a reasonable percentage of our Monero, and if we mess up and can't get it back, hold on to what remains even harder.  This is better for Monero in the long term than losing some of its strong community members to their trading mistakes.  

You are so right. Monero is pretty hard to acquire any significiant amount without causing the price to rise. Even buying 1000 XMR will have an impact on price without sell walls near the spot.
I agree that we need to say farewell to part of the community on the way to the moon. I am sure some of people will sell all their coins and get replaced by several more coin holders. That's life, and the sellers are the ones who regret the most in the end when looking how rich they could have been by being a bit more patient and perhaps adding their collections a bit every day.

There are many reasons that entities/holders might sell or spend their moneroj.  Maybe, just maybe, becoming a gazillionaire is not the be all and end all goal for some. 
As far as 1000 XMR having an impact, our definitions of impact would appear to differ.  10 000 XMR tends to move a few percent for a few minutes.  In recent market conditions, it would be fairly easy to accumulate 100K coins within a pretty tight window of price and time, and leave no lasting effect.   Of course, it would be more fun to time it just right, so that you shoot a green candle right out the top of the monitor, but it isn't necessary if you don't have the funds to waste on such childish pleasures

[aminorex]

Indeed, just the other night, someone placed a 100 BTC offer about 10ksat below the market, which kindly bowed down to meet him, and made return visits to 270k repeatedly, until he was completely filled after a few hours.  I am not sure just how many thousands you could pick up this way in a week, but it would likely be more than any one party should own for very long.  More often, however, FOMU overtakes them after one or two visits to their passive bid, and they chase the rest up the bid stack.

It does take a fairly large order, not too awfully far from the market, however, to entice liquidity seekers.  We monerists are a patient bunch - with the exception of a few evidently short-sighted miners, who tend to dump whatever they can scrape together, and the occasional short-seller endowed with more bravado than wisdom. That the experience of a 5x rise in 15 months, in combination with far grander ambitions for the future, can instill steely resolve into the heart of the most flaccid milquetoast punter should surprise no one.

I watched this market far too much, the past week, as the drama intrigued me so.  I hereby resolve to desist.

[americanpegasus]

So I've been meaning to put some money on /u/fluffyponyza's Monerodice.net for a while now and give it a spin, but for some reason only just got around to it.

Before we begin though, what's the #1 rule of gambling? Look at the money you're about to gamble, pretend its already gone and the only thing you got in return was the entertainment of gambling it away. Is that ok? If so, proceed. If not, reduce the size of your bankroll.

Setup

For me, I had 10 Monero in my Tippero account that I didn't mind losing, and a long boring day of lectures to sit through. So I transferred them over from Tippero to Monerodice, and poof - no transaction difficulties or excessive confirmations. I checked back a few minutes later and everything was there.

The site also lets you add 2FA to your account which is nice, and gives it an air of legitimacy. It's especially nice since I can't always be bothered to login to a dice site with a secure computer - yesterday I wanted to play on a mobile for example.

Play

You surely already know how a dice site works, and this one has a tiny < 1% house edge, a portion of which goes to support the devs anyway. You can set your rolls and odds all the way from a "x2" where you have to beat a roll of 50.50, all the way to a moonshot chance of 5,000x'ing your money where you have to beat a number well above 99.98.

However my favorite bet was the 1.10x multiplier which carries a 90% chance of winning. Maybe I'm just bad at arithmetic (I am), but this bet seems to carry no house edge? I can bet 10 Monero, and if I roll less than 90.00 (or greater than 10.00, players choice), I win eleven back. This also seems to be the most popular bet on the site.

While bored out of my mind in my lectures, I devised what I call "Gauntlet One", which aims to 5x your initial wager with descending chances of ruin, assuming you pass the initial x2 wager.

    Roll 1: x2 (50%)
    Roll 2: x1.5 (66%)
    Roll 3: x1.33 (75%)
    Roll 4: x1.25 (80%)

I'm sure if you work out the probability of surviving all the rolls, it equates to approximately 20%, but this is far more exciting than a one-off shot at 5x'ing a bet.

Anyhow, with a couple of lucky button presses, scaling up a few winning bets, and scaling back bets on losses, I managed to work that initial 10 Monero to 15, then 25, then 33, and ended the night with a win of 40 Monero! Thanks for the free money, and I figured I would write this review now before I lose it all today.

In any case, the site works fine on my iPhone, but you have to remember to click the roll button one time to highlight it, and a second to roll it (if you double click it, that's two rolls so be careful!). Also be warned if you click a 'Go' instruction on the iPhone keyboard that's permission to go ahead and roll too.

Other Features

The site also has great stats where you can see recent bets/wins/losses as well as big bets recently. It also has a basic troll/whine box where you can complain about losing all your Monero, and you can also see a graph of the site's profit/loss (part of the provably fair metric). Players have the option to invest a little of their money into the site and share in the small house edge, but who has time for having a house advantage when you can beat long odds for much more?

I also like that the site explicitly shows you a "maximum win" amount, which is significant but also fair. It prevents me from wondering if the owner would toss me into the back alley should I accidentally hit a real moonshot. For those who want to test their fortunes, that amount is currently set at a whopping 28,000 Monero. Remember not to gamble more than you can afford to lose!

Summary

It would be hard to ask for a better dice site than this, but that doesn't mean the field isn't wide open. There is still room for a quality poker site, blackjack game, as well as something with a bit more flash and dazzle (like slots). Play responsibly, legally, and if you are an entrepreneur consider what other sites you might create to help bolster the Monero universe!

[Billy Bunter]

So I've been meaning to put some money on /u/fluffyponyza's Monerodice.net for a while now and give it a spin, but for some reason only just got around to it.

Before we begin though, what's the #1 rule of gambling? Look at the money you're about to gamble, pretend its already gone and the only thing you got in return was the entertainment of gambling it away. Is that ok? If so, proceed. If not, reduce the size of your bankroll.

Setup

For me, I had 10 Monero in my Tippero account that I didn't mind losing, and a long boring day of lectures to sit through. So I transferred them over from Tippero to Monerodice, and poof - no transaction difficulties or excessive confirmations. I checked back a few minutes later and everything was there.

The site also lets you add 2FA to your account which is nice, and gives it an air of legitimacy. It's especially nice since I can't always be bothered to login to a dice site with a secure computer - yesterday I wanted to play on a mobile for example.

Play

You surely already know how a dice site works, and this one has a tiny < 1% house edge, a portion of which goes to support the devs anyway. You can set your rolls and odds all the way from a "x2" where you have to beat a roll of 50.50, all the way to a moonshot chance of 5,000x'ing your money where you have to beat a number well above 99.98.

However my favorite bet was the 1.10x multiplier which carries a 90% chance of winning. Maybe I'm just bad at arithmetic (I am), but this bet seems to carry no house edge? I can bet 10 Monero, and if I roll less than 90.00 (or greater than 10.00, players choice), I win eleven back. This also seems to be the most popular bet on the site.

While bored out of my mind in my lectures, I devised what I call "Gauntlet One", which aims to 5x your initial wager with descending chances of ruin, assuming you pass the initial x2 wager.

    Roll 1: x2 (50%)
    Roll 2: x1.5 (66%)
    Roll 3: x1.33 (75%)
    Roll 4: x1.25 (80%)

I'm sure if you work out the probability of surviving all the rolls, it equates to approximately 20%, but this is far more exciting than a one-off shot at 5x'ing a bet.

Anyhow, with a couple of lucky button presses, scaling up a few winning bets, and scaling back bets on losses, I managed to work that initial 10 Monero to 15, then 25, then 33, and ended the night with a win of 40 Monero! Thanks for the free money, and I figured I would write this review now before I lose it all today.

In any case, the site works fine on my iPhone, but you have to remember to click the roll button one time to highlight it, and a second to roll it (if you double click it, that's two rolls so be careful!). Also be warned if you click a 'Go' instruction on the iPhone keyboard that's permission to go ahead and roll too.

Other Features

The site also has great stats where you can see recent bets/wins/losses as well as big bets recently. It also has a basic troll/whine box where you can complain about losing all your Monero, and you can also see a graph of the site's profit/loss (part of the provably fair metric). Players have the option to invest a little of their money into the site and share in the small house edge, but who has time for having a house advantage when you can beat long odds for much more?

I also like that the site explicitly shows you a "maximum win" amount, which is significant but also fair. It prevents me from wondering if the owner would toss me into the back alley should I accidentally hit a real moonshot. For those who want to test their fortunes, that amount is currently set at a whopping 28,000 Monero. Remember not to gamble more than you can afford to lose!

Summary

It would be hard to ask for a better dice site than this, but that doesn't mean the field isn't wide open. There is still room for a quality poker site, blackjack game, as well as something with a bit more flash and dazzle (like slots). Play responsibly, legally, and if you are an entrepreneur consider what other sites you might create to help bolster the Monero universe!

Great review Mr. Pegasus. Very useful and thanks for doing it.