[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bitebits]

Instructions for building Win32 binaries of v0.9.2 - Hydrogen Helix:

https://forum.getmonero.org/5/support/2510/building-monero-v0-9-2-on-win32Monero

Did I miss something, is there already a release 0.9.2? On getmonero.org the latest binaries are 0.9.1

Yeah, Debruyne has been spreading the word on the various channels. It isn't up yet on getmonero.org, but the github has it:
https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

Thanks. Now noticed it is on https://www.reddit.com/r/monero as well. Just upgraded both nodes since there are "Huge bug fixes to the database hard fork handling".

[americanpegasus]

Would you say the same thing if there was a XMR bully bull whale?

PirateAt40 got burned because he thought he could hold the BTC price down in 2012.

I look at it as there is no manipulation if they bought their XMR legitimately. The price of XMR is what the price is right now.

Just my TWO 0.02XMR.

The solution is still the same: buy every spot Monero you can, don't use margin, and never capitulate your position once you own a spot Monero - regardless of what the (heavily manipulated) market depth is showing.  
  
Take XMRs one-by-one from those who either don't want them (and don't understand what they are holding), or those who would use their XMR to try to acquire more cheaper.  Then never give it back; it's simple.  Pennies now are thousands of dollars later.

[Billy Bunter]

I just really hate this XMR bully whale.  I watch as he/she/it ruthlessly works the stack for profit, using their hundreds of thousands of Monero to (try to) force holders to capitulate their positions, all the while scraping the asks and picking up cheaper ones - before releasing their price suppression walls just long enough to bully down any new exuberance.  
  
You say consolidation is good, but what is not good is when a community can't even discern something's true price because it constantly gets forcefully manipulated.  I just long for the day when one of the Bitcoin whales decides to make a grand entry into Monero and soaks up every single XMR being used for price suppression for good.  
  
Until then the only answer is for HODL'ers not to give these tactics a single inch.  Buy every spot Monero you can afford, attack fake ask walls when you see them, and never try to flip out of a position to get a lower price.  If we as a community show these asses that these tactics aren't profitable, they'll stop.

I've been a daily reader of this thread for a couple of months now but I'm not a trader and though I've tried to understand what's going in Poloniex, it is still something of a mystery to me even though I watch it assiduously .

SoI have a couple of questions if you don't mind.

First, what is the effect of a 'buy' and 'sell' wall? What does it do, and what does it aim to do - its purpose? Can you give me an example of how it might either raise or lower the price of xmr? How it might affect someone's behavior?

Second, I see many of the other currencies being heavily traded. In the last few days, some seem to have done very well. I don't visit any other threads besides this one, but sometimes I get the impression that someone(s) has it in for Monero - that there is a deliberate intention to keep the price down. Is that just me being paranoid? Would you find, on other currency threads, people complaining about buy and sell walls? Does it happen all over? Could there be a rationale for doing so?

I'm a fairly big holder of Monero so of course I want to see the price go up. I'm also in no hurry for it to do so. But still...

[Dotto]

BAAAZINGAAAA!!!!

[rangedriver]

[dEBRUYNE]

Instructions for building Win32 binaries of v0.9.2 - Hydrogen Helix:

https://forum.getmonero.org/5/support/2510/building-monero-v0-9-2-on-win32Monero

Did I miss something, is there already a release 0.9.2? On getmonero.org the latest binaries are 0.9.1

Yeah, Debruyne has been spreading the word on the various channels. It isn't up yet on getmonero.org, but the github has it:
https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

Fluffypony temporarily pointed the getmonero.org downloads back to 0.9.1 because some users were incurring and subsequently reporting errors. This only happened for two guys on Linux when they switched from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2 (the blockchain is compatible, thus no resync is needed). However, syncing from scratch seems to work fine on 0.9.2.

[Arux]

BAAAZINGAAAA!!!!

[bitebits]

Yeah, Debruyne has been spreading the word on the various channels. It isn't up yet on getmonero.org, but the github has it:
https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

Fluffypony temporarily pointed the getmonero.org downloads back to 0.9.1 because some users were incurring and subsequently reporting errors. This only happened for two guys on Linux when they switched from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2 (the blockchain is compatible, thus no resync is needed). However, syncing from scratch seems to work fine on 0.9.2.

I see. Just upgraded these three nodes without any issues from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2:

- Windows 7 x64
- Ubuntu 15.10 x64
- Ubuntu 14.04.4 LTS x64

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Yeah, Debruyne has been spreading the word on the various channels. It isn't up yet on getmonero.org, but the github has it:
https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

Fluffypony temporarily pointed the getmonero.org downloads back to 0.9.1 because some users were incurring and subsequently reporting errors. This only happened for two guys on Linux when they switched from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2 (the blockchain is compatible, thus no resync is needed). However, syncing from scratch seems to work fine on 0.9.2.

I see. Just upgraded these three nodes without any issues from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2:

- Windows 7 x64
- Ubuntu 15.10 x64
- Ubuntu 14.04.4 LTS x64

For fresh Linux installations (sync from scratch) are you currently still recommending 0.9.2 over 0.9.1?

[GingerAle]

I just really hate this XMR bully whale.  I watch as he/she/it ruthlessly works the stack for profit, using their hundreds of thousands of Monero to (try to) force holders to capitulate their positions, all the while scraping the asks and picking up cheaper ones - before releasing their price suppression walls just long enough to bully down any new exuberance.  
  
You say consolidation is good, but what is not good is when a community can't even discern something's true price because it constantly gets forcefully manipulated.  I just long for the day when one of the Bitcoin whales decides to make a grand entry into Monero and soaks up every single XMR being used for price suppression for good.  
  
Until then the only answer is for HODL'ers not to give these tactics a single inch.  Buy every spot Monero you can afford, attack fake ask walls when you see them, and never try to flip out of a position to get a lower price.  If we as a community show these asses that these tactics aren't profitable, they'll stop.

I've been a daily reader of this thread for a couple of months now but I'm not a trader and though I've tried to understand what's going in Poloniex, it is still something of a mystery to me even though I watch it assiduously .

SoI have a couple of questions if you don't mind.

First, what is the effect of a 'buy' and 'sell' wall? What does it do, and what does it aim to do - its purpose? Can you give me an example of how it might either raise or lower the price of xmr? How it might affect someone's behavior?

Second, I see many of the other currencies being heavily traded. In the last few days, some seem to have done very well. I don't visit any other threads besides this one, but sometimes I get the impression that someone(s) has it in for Monero - that there is a deliberate intention to keep the price down. Is that just me being paranoid? Would you find, on other currency threads, people complaining about buy and sell walls? Does it happen all over? Could there be a rationale for doing so?

I'm a fairly big holder of Monero so of course I want to see the price go up. I'm also in no hurry for it to do so. But still...

Effects of buy and sell walls: Say you have lots of resources. 1,000 bitcoin, 100,000 monero. Your goal: make more money.

You enter the market, and see that on the books there's a nice curve between buy and sell. No walls are visible on the chart. The current market price (the price around where the buy and sell orders meet) is 0.01. A lot of people are willing to buy monero for cheaper. So to drive the price down to 0.001, it costs you 10,000 xmr. So you do that - you sell some portion of your monero holdings to drive the price down, either in one fell swoop or with bots so it appears "natural". The activity creates a panic in the market, because people see the price dropping, so some decide to sell. You then place a large buy order (a buy wall) at 0.005 with, say, 200 bitcoins. Someone who just watched the market tank will say "im gettin outta this" and then dump into your buy wall. So, at the end of the day, you lost 10k xmr due to your initial market manipulation, but made some BTC doing that, and hopefully got > 10k xmr at 0.005 when people panicked.

Now, to move the market the other way you just do the opposite. You use your bitcoin to move the price from 0.01 to 0.1. Once this creates enough momentum in the market (other people going "whoooa boy we going to the moon!!") you then place a sell order of 5,000 xmr (a sell wall) at 0.05 (or wherever things sorta leveled out). If the manipulation was done right, others in the market will view this as a good time to buy-in and will eat your sell wall at 0.05.

edited to add:

but what really happens with the walls is they define limits. So if there's a sell wall at 0.05, people will place buy orders at 0.049. So you can then dump into their buy order.

edit2: luigi is going to kill me. I fixed my "your"

[needmoney90]

BAAAZINGAAAA!!!!

I can't handle this, popcorn harder!

[dEBRUYNE]

Yeah, Debruyne has been spreading the word on the various channels. It isn't up yet on getmonero.org, but the github has it:
https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

Fluffypony temporarily pointed the getmonero.org downloads back to 0.9.1 because some users were incurring and subsequently reporting errors. This only happened for two guys on Linux when they switched from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2 (the blockchain is compatible, thus no resync is needed). However, syncing from scratch seems to work fine on 0.9.2.

I see. Just upgraded these three nodes without any issues from 0.9.1 to 0.9.2:

- Windows 7 x64
- Ubuntu 15.10 x64
- Ubuntu 14.04.4 LTS x64

For fresh Linux installations (sync from scratch) are you currently still recommending 0.9.2 over 0.9.1?

0.9.2 certainly. There is some annoying transaction bug in 0.9.1 which gets fixed.

EDIT: 0.9.2 binaries (except for linux 32 bit) aren't available on the getmonero.org website because fluffypony hasn't GPG signed them yet. However, you can download them from Github (bear in mind that those aren't signed yet too though).

[dnaleor]

Let's hope the pattern continues

[Billy Bunter]

Effects of buy and sell walls: Say you have lots of resources. 1,000 bitcoin, 100,000 monero. You're goal: make more money.

You enter the market, and see that on the books there's a nice curve between buy and sell. No walls are visible on the chart. The current market price (the price around where the buy and sell orders meet) is 0.01. A lot of people are willing to buy monero for cheaper. So to drive the price down to 0.001, it costs you 10,000 xmr. So you do that - you sell some portion of your monero holdings to drive the price down, either in one fell swoop or with bots so it appears "natural". The activity creates a panic in the market, because people see the price dropping, so some decide to sell. You then place a large buy order (a buy wall) at 0.005 with, say, 200 bitcoins. Someone who just watched the market tank will say "im gettin outta this" and then dump into your buy wall. So, at the end of the day, you lost 10k xmr due to your initial market manipulation, but made some BTC doing that, and hopefully got > 10k xmr at 0.005 when people panicked.

Now, to move the market the other way you just do the opposite. You use your bitcoin to move the price from 0.01 to 0.1. Once this creates enough momentum in the market (other people going "whoooa boy we going to the moon!!") you then place a sell order of 5,000 xmr (a sell wall) at 0.05 (or wherever things sorta leveled out). If the manipulation was done right, others in the market will view this as a good time to buy-in and will eat your sell wall at 0.05.

edited to add:

but what really happens with the walls is they define limits. So if there's a sell wall at 0.05, people will place buy orders at 0.049. So you can then dump into their buy order.

Thanks for the detailed and helpful response. I'm going to use this to help me as I go forward.

Is a pump going on at the moment? it seems we have some upward movement.

[Monerobuyer0]

Effects of buy and sell walls: Say you have lots of resources. 1,000 bitcoin, 100,000 monero. You're goal: make more money.

You enter the market, and see that on the books there's a nice curve between buy and sell. No walls are visible on the chart. The current market price (the price around where the buy and sell orders meet) is 0.01. A lot of people are willing to buy monero for cheaper. So to drive the price down to 0.001, it costs you 10,000 xmr. So you do that - you sell some portion of your monero holdings to drive the price down, either in one fell swoop or with bots so it appears "natural". The activity creates a panic in the market, because people see the price dropping, so some decide to sell. You then place a large buy order (a buy wall) at 0.005 with, say, 200 bitcoins. Someone who just watched the market tank will say "im gettin outta this" and then dump into your buy wall. So, at the end of the day, you lost 10k xmr due to your initial market manipulation, but made some BTC doing that, and hopefully got > 10k xmr at 0.005 when people panicked.

Now, to move the market the other way you just do the opposite. You use your bitcoin to move the price from 0.01 to 0.1. Once this creates enough momentum in the market (other people going "whoooa boy we going to the moon!!") you then place a sell order of 5,000 xmr (a sell wall) at 0.05 (or wherever things sorta leveled out). If the manipulation was done right, others in the market will view this as a good time to buy-in and will eat your sell wall at 0.05.

edited to add:

but what really happens with the walls is they define limits. So if there's a sell wall at 0.05, people will place buy orders at 0.049. So you can then dump into their buy order.

Thanks for the detailed and helpful response. I'm going to use this to help me as I go forward.

Is a pump going on at the moment? it seems we have some upward movement.

This describes the effect of dumps more than the effect of walls.  When one dumps a lot of XMR to drive the price down, hoping to buy more back cheaper.


But a wall is different from a market order. 

The effect of a sell wall is sometimes just a desire to sell monero at that price (a 'real' wall).  But sometimes it is a bluff (a 'fake' wall).


The purpose of a bluff sell wall is to cause other people to panic sell because they see your wall and think the price cannot rise.  You place smaller buy orders below the price and hope that you catch this panic selling.  Once you do, you remove the sell wall and allow the price to rise, while the panic sellers are upset.  The goal of the wall is to get your limit orders filled at a better price.

If it works, its a way to buy cheaper. 

Sometimes it fails because a whale actually munches your wall, then you are sad.



Its hard to tell if a wall is real or fake.  Usually if a wall stays in place for a long time its real.  Usually if you buy part of a wall and its fake, the rest of it will be removed.   

There can be fake buy walls as well as fake sell walls, the goal of fake buy walsl is to allow the person to sell some at a higher price. 

[GingerAle]

Effects of buy and sell walls: Say you have lots of resources. 1,000 bitcoin, 100,000 monero. You're goal: make more money.

You enter the market, and see that on the books there's a nice curve between buy and sell. No walls are visible on the chart. The current market price (the price around where the buy and sell orders meet) is 0.01. A lot of people are willing to buy monero for cheaper. So to drive the price down to 0.001, it costs you 10,000 xmr. So you do that - you sell some portion of your monero holdings to drive the price down, either in one fell swoop or with bots so it appears "natural". The activity creates a panic in the market, because people see the price dropping, so some decide to sell. You then place a large buy order (a buy wall) at 0.005 with, say, 200 bitcoins. Someone who just watched the market tank will say "im gettin outta this" and then dump into your buy wall. So, at the end of the day, you lost 10k xmr due to your initial market manipulation, but made some BTC doing that, and hopefully got > 10k xmr at 0.005 when people panicked.

Now, to move the market the other way you just do the opposite. You use your bitcoin to move the price from 0.01 to 0.1. Once this creates enough momentum in the market (other people going "whoooa boy we going to the moon!!") you then place a sell order of 5,000 xmr (a sell wall) at 0.05 (or wherever things sorta leveled out). If the manipulation was done right, others in the market will view this as a good time to buy-in and will eat your sell wall at 0.05.

edited to add:

but what really happens with the walls is they define limits. So if there's a sell wall at 0.05, people will place buy orders at 0.049. So you can then dump into their buy order.

Thanks for the detailed and helpful response. I'm going to use this to help me as I go forward.

Is a pump going on at the moment? it seems we have some upward movement.

i forgot to add my usual "i have no idea what im talking about" disclaimer. Im just callin em as I sees em. And I have no idea whats going on at the moment. This market is crazy. I don't give money advice, but the best thing for your piece of mind is to buy a little bit everyday - known as cost averaging.

Actually, the best thing to do is buy hardware to mine monero. That way if the price ever crashes and monero is worth as much as the bits on the blockchain, you can then sell your hardware to someone who wants to play games on their computer. On top of that, you support the network and make the network more secure. Our hashrate is paltry for something as powerful as Monero.

[Billy Bunter]

i forgot to add my usual "i have no idea what im talking about" disclaimer. Im just callin em as I sees em. And I have no idea whats going on at the moment. This market is crazy. I don't give money advice, but the best thing for your piece of mind is to buy a little bit everyday - known as cost averaging.

Actually, the best thing to do is buy hardware to mine monero. That way if the price ever crashes and monero is worth as much as the bits on the blockchain, you can then sell your hardware to someone who wants to play games on their computer. On top of that, you support the network and make the network more secure. Our hashrate is paltry for something as powerful as Monero.

No, I get it - I'm not here for financial advice. I've made my Monero bed and I'm happy to lie in it. I do run a node, though I don't mine. As to my last question, do you think Monero suffers from walls more than other coins? I see much greater movement in the other top 10 coins, whereas Monero seems stuck in a relatively narrow band.

[GingerAle]

i forgot to add my usual "i have no idea what im talking about" disclaimer. Im just callin em as I sees em. And I have no idea whats going on at the moment. This market is crazy. I don't give money advice, but the best thing for your piece of mind is to buy a little bit everyday - known as cost averaging.

Actually, the best thing to do is buy hardware to mine monero. That way if the price ever crashes and monero is worth as much as the bits on the blockchain, you can then sell your hardware to someone who wants to play games on their computer. On top of that, you support the network and make the network more secure. Our hashrate is paltry for something as powerful as Monero.

No, I get it - I'm not here for financial advice. I've made my Monero bed and I'm happy to lie in it. I do run a node, though I don't mine. As to my last question, do you think Monero suffers from walls more than other coins? I see much greater movement in the other top 10 coins, whereas Monero seems stuck in a relatively narrow band.

My favorite theory is that botnet operators intentionally keep the price low to keep the GPU miners away from the coin. This assumes that Monero will have an inevitable rise in price. But in this scenario with an inevitable rise in price, you try to keep the mining network as small as possible so your botnets can mine a greater percentage of the supply.

When monero reaches 5 - 10$ (or something), the GPU farmers will come in and eat the hashrate (I don't know where they are now... ethereum, decred, dash, maybe some litecoin still). Monero is the *only* cpu-mineable coin that is worth *anything*, so if I was a botnet operator I would protect the longevity of my resource... in this case, my theory is that they protect the longevity of their exploitation of the mine by keeping it unnattractive for the high-power (meaning, watts) miners.

and these bonnet operators have lots of monero (in this hypothetical scenario).

But this is purely speculation.

[Billy Bunter]

This describes the effect of dumps more than the effect of walls.  When one dumps a lot of XMR to drive the price down, hoping to buy more back cheaper.


But a wall is different from a market order. 

The effect of a sell wall is sometimes just a desire to sell monero at that price (a 'real' wall).  But sometimes it is a bluff (a 'fake' wall).


The purpose of a bluff sell wall is to cause other people to panic sell because they see your wall and think the price cannot rise.  You place smaller buy orders below the price and hope that you catch this panic selling.  Once you do, you remove the sell wall and allow the price to rise, while the panic sellers are upset.  The goal of the wall is to get your limit orders filled at a better price.

If it works, its a way to buy cheaper. 

Sometimes it fails because a whale actually munches your wall, then you are sad.



Its hard to tell if a wall is real or fake.  Usually if a wall stays in place for a long time its real.  Usually if you buy part of a wall and its fake, the rest of it will be removed.   

There can be fake buy walls as well as fake sell walls, the goal of fake buy walsl is to allow the person to sell some at a higher price. 

Thanks for your response. So can anyone put up a fake wall or do you have to have the potential resources to do so before Poloniex allows you to do it? In other words, can only real whales put up fake walls?
Lastly, are walls, either fake or real, an issue for all currencies or is Monero blighted by them more than most?

[Febo]

i forgot to add my usual "i have no idea what im talking about" disclaimer. Im just callin em as I sees em. And I have no idea whats going on at the moment. This market is crazy. I don't give money advice, but the best thing for your piece of mind is to buy a little bit everyday - known as cost averaging.

Actually, the best thing to do is buy hardware to mine monero. That way if the price ever crashes and monero is worth as much as the bits on the blockchain, you can then sell your hardware to someone who wants to play games on their computer. On top of that, you support the network and make the network more secure. Our hashrate is paltry for something as powerful as Monero.

No, I get it - I'm not here for financial advice. I've made my Monero bed and I'm happy to lie in it. I do run a node, though I don't mine. As to my last question, do you think Monero suffers from walls more than other coins? I see much greater movement in the other top 10 coins, whereas Monero seems stuck in a relatively narrow band.

The point of fake walls is to actually make it more volatile. So without those, Monero price would be more stable over time.