[XMR] Monero Speculation

[bitjedi]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

*raises hand*

[smooth]

Does that make sense? Is Monero the most free market crypto currency right now?

It is a plausible claim. It is certainly true that almost anyone can mine, at worst at a small loss, and in many cases at a small profit. When at a loss, the loss is generally small enough in absolute terms that suggesting people just mine if they support the coin and want it to succeed is not absurd, and some actually do it. The proposed idea of "egalitarian mining" from the white paper seems to have held up reasonable well after two years.

It is a loss when you obtain your coins anonymously without needing to exchange through fiat? That is probably worth something extra to some people.

Maybe not. Only really useful for small timers if you only need a small amount of coins though. I do think that some newcomers do this to obtain coins in order to be able to experiment, making it a nice onboarding tool (and then they may bother with exchanges if they want to obtain larger amounts later). For larger amounts it is impractical as you would need to become a semi-pro miner to mine enough.

Why would being semi-pro diminish your ability to be anonymous?

I didn't mean that it would, only that most people won't bother. If you have a strong need, then you might.

[TPTB_need_war]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

*raises hand*

I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.

[smooth]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

To me this is easy to answer. They left the scene altogether.

I can tell a personal story here, about some guy I met locally and sold Bitcoins p2p a while back. He told me he was using to buy some hot P&D coin, which was in the process of a moon shot at the time. He bought Bitcoins from me several times, until the P&D coin collapsed. Then I never saw or heard from him again.

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

The fact that big losers often just quit and become invisible helps perpetuate the game. We're still here, and there are still plenty of P&D scams. But at the same time growth of the crypto community is limited. We chew up and spit out a lot of newcomers.

[tifozi]

Exactly my thoughts, it is mostly embarrassment and that male pride. No one is inclined to share their bad trades but tons of fake gloating goes about in the altcoin scene and crypto in general.

[TPTB_need_war]

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

The fact that big losers often just quit and become invisible helps perpetuate the game. We're still here, and there are still plenty of P&D scams. But at the same time growth of the crypto community is limited. We chew up and spit out a lot of newcomers.

Wish the CC news sites would put some effort into doing a study on this. To put some realistic sober data out there instead of the incessant prostituting of half-assed research in articles pumping shitcoins to newcomers.

[TPTB_need_war]

RFC:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1426481.0

[elrippo]

Where have I repeatedly harassed someone about something that isn't even accurate, and refused to stop even when the issue was done?

Trolls like this guy and a couple others are pure scum. They should have grown up before computers so someone could knock some respect into their punk asses.

LAY OFF PEOPLE. I'm sick of it and I'm just about done with this "community".

Calm down, everybody in here is nervous about Monero so don't let it grab you too. Just take a cup of tea, make your predictions and trade as you like 

[americanpegasus]

I made a lot (like $10k) buying Dogecoin from $300 per million all the way up to $1800 per million.  Then as it fell I gave a lot of it back.  
  
Then I moved half of that money into Nyancoin and let it sit.  
  
Today those are both relatively worthless investments, so you could say I lost quite a bit.  
  
 
  
Today I am happily and successfully 'bagholding' cryptonotes but I don't fault my losses from the animal-coin era.  I learned a lot about crypto, and it only cost me a few thousand dollars.  That's tuition well spent.  Perhaps if cryptonotes take off we might even see a long awaited ROI from that tuition.

[elrippo]

I made a lot (like $10k) buying Dogecoin from $300 per million all the way up to $1800 per million.  Then as it fell I gave a lot of it back.  
  
Then I moved half of that money into Nyancoin and let it sit.  
  
Today those are both relatively worthless investments, so you could say I lost quite a bit.  
  
 
  
Today I am happily and successfully 'bagholding' cryptonotes but I don't fault my losses from the animal-coin era.  I learned a lot about crypto, and it only cost me a few thousand dollars.  That's tuition well spent.  Perhaps if cryptonotes take off we might even see a long awaited ROI from that tuition.

+1
Well, i also thought i can stack up my stash with trading (nOOb trying to "read" the candels), lost a few €k on Monero and now i am getting back my losses by ASIC trading to make up these lost Moneroj. Time, a month or two, will tell if i succeed in doing so.
I also learned it the hard way, like i always did, and i am glad to watch people sharing their knowledge and learning from them, like we all do 

"Errors are there to be made, the main thing is to learn from these!"

[Johnny Mnemonic]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

To me this is easy to answer. They left the scene altogether.

Probably, but I think it's easy to forget how few of us (real people) there are in a sea of scammers and shill accounts all trying to defraud one another.

Additionally, there's a difference between people who are generally interested in cryptocurrency and its future and those who simply want to make money trading it. The latter tend to get bored and disappear after losing their shirt a couple times.

[meme magic]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

*raises hand*

I think it is because it is a topic victims find embarrassing and would rather forget? We are males (mostly here) and I presume we don't like to be perceived as weak or having failures of judgement.

sometimes there are stories in other sections of btct (here too), but for the most part theres really no reward mechanism for coming here with a losing story. most people here come to make money. most people stay here to make money.

i would imagine the reason that such stories are rarely heard is because typically sob stories wont make you richer here. what will provably make you more money is more money. you could try lobbying for legislation, enforcement or control if you dont have money.

control is probably much easier had by scamming. and not much happens as far as enforcement unless its over a certain marketcap amount.

legislation, you seem to have made the point that its on its way in two years, a while out

apart from 'male ego', theres no real reason to share a sordid story.

[TPTB_need_war]

Calm down, everybody in here is nervous about Monero so don't let it grab you too. Just take a cup of tea, make your predictions and trade as you like  

Monitoring the short-term exchange(s) noise continuously can be very stressful.

Monero won't have Bitcoin's scaling problem until the transaction rate and market cap are much higher. Interim it should have an upgrade to RingCT, so I think it is given that 2016 - 2017 Monero will have a very significant rise as priced in BTC. Clearly XMR has broken out above of the downwedge as priced in BTC. I do think we still have a correction in BTC coming though, so I'd be keeping some dry US dollar powder on the table for a few months before going all in.

Beyond that it gets murkier. Because for example, I presume I will launch in 2017 with a real solution to the economies-of-scale economics of the scaling problem but even I recognize there is a long way to go between that plan and the actual accomplishment, so even I can't predict with 100% surety that event, much less all the other variables in play.

I don't see any other altcoin in 2016 ready to displace Monero as the free market, reliable alternative for parking money escaping the accelerating collapse of the peripheral markets (outside the USA) with Europe ready to march over the cliff after the BREXIT vote. I might have a Seedr IPO within 2016 at best, but that will be for the corporation not the token (which will be separately fair proof-of-work launched).

I am not referring to other pumps that are approaching as I can't predict the timing irrationality of gamblers, scammers, and the n00b prey who are learning by fire. I am referring to those well informed, serious investors who need to hedge against Bitcoin's scalepocalyspe and increasing centralization of mining especially 65% pool control in China. Look around and there is no other option with a CPU friendly hash function that is ready for prime time. Note I have not analyzed for example Lisk and Waves. I presume Lisk is more smart contract nonsense. Waves appears to be about colored coins, but I haven't studied thoroughly. We don't know yet when Zerocash (Z.cash) will launch and whether it will really be ready for prime time. One would presume it will have issues given the inexperience in crypto-currency of the developers.

Fluffypony et al, IMO now is the time to double-down on your coding effort and get the upgrade out as well as the GUI (if that is still an issue).

To others and their altcoins, I am not saying you have no chance to see a free market driven (not pump scam) rise in price also. On a case-by-case basis.

Disclaimer: I haven't really been paying close attention (because my head also needs to be in the sand on my own work) and others may have more well researched opinion.

[Casmatesid]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

There are too many scam coins out there. Those coins divert the funding flowing into Monero, so the price is low.

[TPTB_need_war]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

There are too many scam coins out there. Those coins divert the funding flowing into Monero, so the price is low.

They are not in the market for Monero. They want to get rich quick which makes them ripe for manipulation and falling for the good story and pump. They have to learn by fire and only some will readjust their perspective. I don't see any solution to that even if you eliminated the scams they would go find them some where else, but I am trying to think of ways to present data more objectively to help some open their eyes.

Edit: If serious money moves into crypto, they will surely see Monero is the investor's choice.

I think many people are looking for the next huge adoption coin. So they are ripe for bullshit about smart contracts, etc.. Monero afaics is targeting at this point (near-term) more to investors than to users (apology if Monero's long range plans chart is not imprinted on my mind). Although more of the former could form the economy-of-scale to drive more of the latter as it did for Bitcoin (e.g. XMR.to and did that precede and form the idea for ShapeShift.io?), although Monero's main use case (for now) is anonymity and investment afaics.

Edit#2: let us not forget how much work developing crypto is. Monero has a solid open source methodical forward movement. I see other coins as quick flames, e.g. Come-from-Beyond's 12 Java files source code for Iota. I am a programmer so I understand how the man-hours pile up on this shit. To sustain that coding effort for one or two devs, is very intense. I did that in the late 1980s and again in late 1990s; and both times it was a huge sacrifice (eating and sleeping at your desk 14 x 7 for years). I tried to gear it up again in the late 2000s but mid-life maelstrom made it implausible. Trying to gear up for the late 2010s one more time. Much older now. This isn't easy but if it is fun then that is the key. Nobody will do this well and sustained if they aren't enjoying it. Appears to me Shen-noether and fluffy are enjoying this.

[vuduchyld]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

Post of the Week right there.  Fascinating topic.

Some of it is due to the power of the anonymity of an internet forum.  People simply don't interact here in the same way they would in a localized, less anonymous environment.

Related to that, I suspect that people assume it negatively impacts their credibility when they admit to making mistakes about backing the wrong horse.  There is no real incentive to admitting one made a mistake, especially if that makes other statements one makes (anonymously) less well-received. 

There may also be an element of something like a selection bias.  If you're currently holding a bag, it's easy to believe that it's about to turn around.  My guess, which is pure projection because I've done this, is that you keep holding some coin on which you're way underwater, not because you believe the hype you believed when you bought it, but because you HOPE for that hype to take hold again, if even for a day, so you can get out with less pain.  If you haven't sold at a loss and realized those losses, again, there may be no self-admission that it's a bag you're holding.

Finally, I think it's REALLY EASY to be infected by a common problem among gamblers and speculators.  When you're successful, it's because you're smart.  When you are not successful, it's because you were unlucky or it's due to manipulation.  So our "winning" trades are due to our brilliance, which we will shout to the rooftops.  Our "losing" trades are just bad luck and not worth mentioning.  That totally happens IRL, as well.

This would be a great thread for the Alt Discussion board!

[TPTB_need_war]

This would be a great thread for the Alt Discussion board!

Done.

[dEBRUYNE]

If it weren't for a plethora of scam coins fooling newbies/newcomers and even guys with 2-3 year experience in cryptos, XMR would have had enjoyed lofty high valuations even now. It's a shame that money is always tied up chasing bad decisions and investments, crypto or otherwise.

What I don't understand is where are all the people who lost money on P&Ds? Why do we never hear from them?

The problem right now is I only read in this Altcoin Discussion forum about how excited people are about having bought some altcoins low and selling them for multi-baggers. I don't ever hear from the people who lost money. Where are they? Where did they go?

Without the sordid stories from the losers, everyone thinks it is silly to not try to get rich quick.

Post of the Week right there.  Fascinating topic.

Some of it is due to the power of the anonymity of an internet forum.  People simply don't interact here in the same way they would in a localized, less anonymous environment.

Related to that, I suspect that people assume it negatively impacts their credibility when they admit to making mistakes about backing the wrong horse.  There is no real incentive to admitting one made a mistake, especially if that makes other statements one makes (anonymously) less well-received.  

There may also be an element of something like a selection bias.  If you're currently holding a bag, it's easy to believe that it's about to turn around. My guess, which is pure projection because I've done this, is that you keep holding some coin on which you're way underwater, not because you believe the hype you believed when you bought it, but because you HOPE for that hype to take hold again, if even for a day, so you can get out with less pain.  If you haven't sold at a loss and realized those losses, again, there may be no self-admission that it's a bag you're holding.

Finally, I think it's REALLY EASY to be infected by a common problem among gamblers and speculators.  When you're successful, it's because you're smart.  When you are not successful, it's because you were unlucky or it's due to manipulation.  So our "winning" trades are due to our brilliance, which we will shout to the rooftops.  Our "losing" trades are just bad luck and not worth mentioning.  That totally happens IRL, as well.

This would be a great thread for the Alt Discussion board!

Most of bolded is explained by the dispostion effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect

Interesting biases/theories that are related to this are the endownment effect and prospect theory. All boil down to behavioral finance, which is in my opinion an interesting subject.

[rdnkjdi]

Calm down, everybody in here is nervous about Monero so don't let it grab you too. Just take a cup of tea, make your predictions and trade as you like  

Monitoring the short-term exchange(s) noise continuously can be very stressful.

Monero won't have Bitcoin's scaling problem until the transaction rate and market cap are much higher. Interim it should have an upgrade to RingCT, so I think it is given that 2016 - 2017 Monero will have a very significant rise as priced in BTC. Clearly XMR has broken out above of the downwedge as priced in BTC. I do think we still have a correction in BTC coming though, so I'd be keeping some dry US dollar powder on the table for a few months before going all in.

Beyond that it gets murkier. Because for example, I presume I will launch in 2017 with a real solution to the economies-of-scale economics of the scaling problem but even I recognize there is a long way to go between that plan and the actual accomplishment, so even I can't predict with 100% surety that event, much less all the other variables in play.

I don't see any other altcoin in 2016 ready to displace Monero as the free market, reliable alternative for parking money escaping the accelerating collapse of the peripheral markets (outside the USA) with Europe ready to march over the cliff after the BREXIT vote. I might have a Seedr IPO within 2016 at best, but that will be for the corporation not the token (which will be separately fair proof-of-work launched).

I am not referring to other pumps that are approaching as I can't predict the timing irrationality of gamblers, scammers, and the n00b prey who are learning by fire. I am referring to those well informed, serious investors who need to hedge against Bitcoin's scalepocalyspe and increasing centralization of mining especially 65% pool control in China. Look around and there is no other option with a CPU friendly hash function that is ready for prime time. Note I have not analyzed for example Lisk and Waves. I presume Lisk is more smart contract nonsense. Waves appears to be about colored coins, but I haven't studied thoroughly. We don't know yet when Zerocash (Z.cash) will launch and whether it will really be ready for prime time. One would presume it will have issues given the inexperience in crypto-currency of the developers.

Fluffypony et al, IMO now is the time to double-down on your coding effort and get the upgrade out as well as the GUI (if that is still an issue).

To others and their altcoins, I am not saying you have no chance to see a free market driven (not pump scam) rise in price also. On a case-by-case basis.

Disclaimer: I haven't really been paying close attention (because my head also needs to be in the sand on my own work) and others may have more well researched opinion.

Don't you think zcash is a factor in this?  Maybe I'm misreading the tea leaves but the ethereum market cap seems to indicate that people are more comfortable funding development via premine / taxed mining rewards than not having any subsidies and slower development.  (XMR and Dash would be another comparison ... and those are two coins where the economic winner is clearly not the technical winner).

[vuduchyld]

Most of bolded is explained by the dispostion effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect

Interesting biases/theories that are related to this are the endownment effect and prospect theory. All boil down to behavioral finance, which is in my opinion an interesting subject.

Very interesting.  Thank you.