[XMR] Monero Speculation

[opennux]

I've had one bitcoin lent for 30 days and it's pulled an extra .1 btc.  Hit the lending market right and you can get lucky.  Wish I'd realized that six months ago and I would've minted a pretty nice sum.

Exactly! My first teeny loan of BTC went at 0.055%. As I write this, the low offer's 0.0483%. The rates are actually higher than the ones for Ethereum right now.

When you think about it, the Loan Market is a HODLer's dream! Not only do you get paid for HODLing, but also (if you're reasonably good at timing the market) it encourages you to buy-and-HODL more when the sentiment's gloomy. The worse the sentiment, the higher the loan rate (to short sellers). Add the theory of contrary opinion - "buy when the blood is running on the streets" - and you've got a sweet setup.

Lending out is not a "hodler's" dream. Having it on an exchange is not exactly hodling. But if you want to make some xmr like this more power to you.

[1714703445]

1714703445

[explorer]

I love when the plan comes together

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

A bit fast, for my liking.  I sold the top rather well, but failed to buy the bottom.  So I'll wait.  If you don't have bids placed to get dumped into, its near impossible to buy any volume close to market on the way back up     

[TrueCryptonaire]

Trading xmr doesn't make sense due to the high slippage. Smaller amounts you can trade for sure but I am not sure if it is worth your time.

[sandiman]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

[TPTB_need_war]

As far as I can see, Monero has not solved the Tragedy of the Commons in Satoshi's design. I reiterated my rebuttal to ArticMine:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1441959.msg14599446#msg14599446

Clarification:

Security of a coin will be very tied to its transaction rate × average transaction size, i.e. velocity adoption and wealth of the velocity. The problem I have with the fixed size tail reward as compared to the design I am contemplating is that tail reward only captures those metrics indirectly through exchange price appreciation. I am not sure if the two models are equally powerful. I will need to think more deeply about it. My design also has an orthogonal tail reward.

Edit: some aspects of Monero's tail reward and block size adjustment algorithm are analogous to aspects of my design. There are some other things I didn't mention. I will need to really take the time to distil this into a carefully written white paper. So I would caution readers not to form any concrete conclusions (either for or against any design mentioned here) from these vague discussions.

BTW, I would suggest that Tragedy of the Commons is an ineffective analogy for explaining whatever it is you are trying to explain because obviously-intelligent people such as ArticMine don't understand it. It may be that you are entirely correct, but if you want to communicate effectively you need a differently-worded explanation.

Agreed at the appropriate time. I deem it necessary to be vague since I am months (or moar!) away from implementing my design.

[nioc]

ShapeShift is back but as of now only between btc and eth

[dEBRUYNE]

I love when the plan comes together

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

Congratulations on the call. Though it is worth mentioning that the drop was, alas, (again) done by one single entity.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it really risky to loan XMR (or other cryptocurrencies) ? how likely is it that someone won't pay you back?

If you have no collateral and you are giving out a personal loan it is very likely not to get your money back.
However, if you have collateral you significiantly lower the risk of default. Yes you might have some risk (like the collateral is not good enough in case of forced liquidation) or the service operator will go to bankcrupt (like Gox did with btc).

[inca]

I love when the plan comes together

[...] neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

So far so good. Not so sure now if 27k is the top or we can enter 28-30k territory. Whatever a retest to 23k or lower seems quite plausible before resume the minirally

Impressed for the fast recovery, even with the BTC wanting to rally in parallel. Still thinking in another 23k retest and recover to 26 as baseline

Congratulations on the call. Though it is worth mentioning that the drop was, alas, (again) done by one single entity.

Who may well be Dotto..

[TrueCryptonaire]

Probably whales are hunting now for the coins of smaller fish species.

[spatula]

Probably whales are hunting now for the coins of smaller fish species.

Yea, but I'm pretty sure you are wrong on which coin they want.

[inca]

It will be fascinating to see how xmr reacts to a bitcoin price bubble. Just staying in the 0.002 - 0.003 range will be a great result if bitcoin doubles here.

The super bull outcome would be a repeat of 2013 with selected alts bubbling with bitcoin surge. Not impossible to see xmr either crater here or go up 10x (and still have a tiny market cap).  All depends on the mini whales pulling the strings

[TPTB_need_war]

This may or may not apply to crypto-currency:

The deadcat bounces are almost done. Prepare for the (more and more likely) fakeout crash V bottom slingshot:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/central-banks-are-trapped-higher-interest-rates-the-only-answer/

[Monerobuyer0]

It will be fascinating to see how xmr reacts to a bitcoin price bubble. Just staying in the 0.002 - 0.003 range will be a great result if bitcoin doubles here.

The super bull outcome would be a repeat of 2013 with selected alts bubbling with bitcoin surge. Not impossible to see xmr either crater here or go up 10x (and still have a tiny market cap).  All depends on the mini whales pulling the strings

Given that a 2% bitcoin rise apparently causes -13% or worse in monero, it seems that a bitcoin rally will cause Monero to go to negative values.

[vokain]

It will be fascinating to see how xmr reacts to a bitcoin price bubble. Just staying in the 0.002 - 0.003 range will be a great result if bitcoin doubles here.

The super bull outcome would be a repeat of 2013 with selected alts bubbling with bitcoin surge. Not impossible to see xmr either crater here or go up 10x (and still have a tiny market cap).  All depends on the mini whales pulling the strings

Given that a 2% bitcoin rise apparently causes -13% or worse in monero, it seems that a bitcoin rally will cause Monero to go to negative values.

Sample set range?

[luigi1111]

It will be fascinating to see how xmr reacts to a bitcoin price bubble. Just staying in the 0.002 - 0.003 range will be a great result if bitcoin doubles here.

The super bull outcome would be a repeat of 2013 with selected alts bubbling with bitcoin surge. Not impossible to see xmr either crater here or go up 10x (and still have a tiny market cap).  All depends on the mini whales pulling the strings

Given that a 2% bitcoin rise apparently causes -13% or worse in monero, it seems that a bitcoin rally will cause Monero to go to negative values.

I will accept 100 Monero from you for every Bitcoin you give me.

Deal of the century, don't miss out!

[Monerobuyer0]

Are the whales that sold ready to get back into XMR yet?  Or are they going to let the community shrink back to what it was in January first?

[kurious]

Are the whales that sold ready to get back into XMR yet?  Or are they going to let the community shrink back to what it was in January first?

Wait and see...

[dEBRUYNE]

This is kind of scary if it would materialize:

https://petertodd.org/2016/mit-chainanchor-bribing-miners-to-regulate-bitcoin

Predicted by dnaleor almost a year ago already:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/374ss5/the_problem_with_bitcoin_that_everyone_seems_to/

[Monerobuyer0]

This is kind of scary if it would materialize:

https://petertodd.org/2016/mit-chainanchor-bribing-miners-to-regulate-bitcoin

Predicted by dnaleor almost a year ago already:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/374ss5/the_problem_with_bitcoin_that_everyone_seems_to/

But, but..."only terrorists, drug users, criminals, and pedophiles care about anonymity!"