[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

To be x10 from 20 days ago XMR should be 0.037 right now.  Many here would agree on your prediction.


Let me add a bit more here. Monero price gained x10 in about less then 3 months. That was right before Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving suppressed price of all altcoins so as Monero.  Even I had few dark thoughts to buy BTC. If BTC would ATH i would buy back Monero soon after and wait for Monero growth. But BTC did not ATH and that would be really bad decision if I would do it.
Another reason why all alts grow last 3 months was Ethereum debacle. Many thought ETH will replace BTC. Altho is quite different technology, but it seems people just dont care about that. After ETC, those that saw only ETH started looking around. Not only in Monero but also in Monero. All alts at least doubled prices in last months.


Withouth BTC halving price would be way higher in July. And today we would not see such jumps.

[1715186389]

1715186389

[1715186389]

1715186389

[1715186389]

1715186389

[1715186389]

1715186389

[1715186389]

1715186389

[rpietila]

When the market cap of Monero will exceed the marketcap of bitcoin that will be a great day. When shall it happen?

In the beginning I thought alts are secondary to Bitcoin, so can only serve niches that entitle them to at max a few % of marketcap. Bitcoin used to be between 90-95% of total crypto marketcap then.

Some time after I had bought into Monero, I realised that it does everything that Bitcoin does, but better (by being anonymous by design). This lead me to think that normal innovation adoption rules apply, and even if Commodore 64 has 100% of the markets at some point, it can be replaced by IBM PC, or NES, or both, subsequently. For this stage, I even formulated the wealth preservation theorem that stated "if any of the alts reaches 20% of BTC marketcap for the reason that it is better than BTC, this will cause 2-5% of BTC wealth to move to that alt for wealth preservation/hedging, which will snowball the alt to become 80% instead of 20% (hence trump BTC in market cap).

Now I am unsure if such a mechanism would actually take place, due to so much inertia that has been accumulated in the system. So I am leaning towards peaceful coexistence, which allows multiple coins to live and have higher and lower market caps. The history shows this is not a winner-takes-it-all market, even if I had thought so. The opposite is true: small things grow and die, BTC stays. But BTC does not account for 90-95% of the market cap any more, as the small things have grown faster.

Yes, there is still a scenario that some coin will take over Bitcoin, and the only coin that has realistic chance to do it is Monero. This will likely require a major flaw in Bitcoin first, but it is already suffering from a death by thousand cuts, if we are honest and clear-sighted.

[Its About Sharing]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

I just don't trust them. A "legitimate" anonymous cash, in the end, I just don't think will be anonymous. You can be sure the agencies are following them closely, if not involved (though I do believe the source will be made public?) I just think they must have been compromised along the way - we are talking enslavement, I mean money here.

I'm sure a lot of work is going into here: https://z.cash/blog/auditing-zcash.html

[nanobrain]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

I just don't trust them. A "legitimate" anonymous cash, in the end, I just don't think will be anonymous. You can be sure the agencies are following them closely, if not involved (though I do believe the source will be made public?) I just think they must have been compromised along the way - we are talking enslavement, I mean money here.

I'm sure a lot of work is going into here: https://z.cash/blog/auditing-zcash.html

Yes,  I completely agree with those thoughts.  There is something of a disconnect as if you are being sold something illicit by a bunch of people who work in the criminal justice system. 

What seems so disappointing is that so many* of the younger folks here seem ready to follow this rather than XMR.

*completely anecdotal judgement based on a small and unscientific sample

[wachtwoord]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

I just don't trust them. A "legitimate" anonymous cash, in the end, I just don't think will be anonymous. You can be sure the agencies are following them closely, if not involved (though I do believe the source will be made public?) I just think they must have been compromised along the way - we are talking enslavement, I mean money here.

I'm sure a lot of work is going into here: https://z.cash/blog/auditing-zcash.html

Yes,  I completely agree with those thoughts.  There is something of a disconnect as if you are being sold something illicit by a bunch of people who work in the criminal justice system. 

What seems so disappointing is that so many* of the younger folks here seem ready to follow this rather than XMR.

*completely anecdotal judgement based on a small and unscientific sample

Heavily premined coin plus the fact you need to trust them 100% to have destroyed the initialization seed made me decide to not buy Zerocoin at all. Even though purely technical it's math is superior to Monero. But with Moneoro I don't need to trust anyone (let alone untrustworthy people!)

[Billy Bunter]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

I just don't trust them. A "legitimate" anonymous cash, in the end, I just don't think will be anonymous. You can be sure the agencies are following them closely, if not involved (though I do believe the source will be made public?) I just think they must have been compromised along the way - we are talking enslavement, I mean money here.

I'm sure a lot of work is going into here: https://z.cash/blog/auditing-zcash.html

Yes,  I completely agree with those thoughts.  There is something of a disconnect as if you are being sold something illicit by a bunch of people who work in the criminal justice system. 

What seems so disappointing is that so many* of the younger folks here seem ready to follow this rather than XMR.

*completely anecdotal judgement based on a small and unscientific sample

Heavily premined coin plus the fact you need to trust them 100% to have destroyed the initialization seed made me decide to not buy Zerocoin at all. Even though purely technical it's math is superior to Monero. But with Moneoro I don't need to trust anyone (let alone untrustworthy people!)

You and I might feel that way but will the rest of the market? ZCash will be the New Kid in Town and, as such, the Poloniex kids are going to love it. The market thrives on shiny new coins and ZCash will be the shiniest of them all given the money and backing it has.

I admit that I'm worried it will affect Monero's recent rise.

[dewdeded]

We won't loose any real talent (mid-term & long-term) to Z.Cash, that is pretty obvious.

Everybody with a brain, that really shares the advertised values, will be supportive and positive towards Monero.
Even, if he is traped (by being a public face) or otherwise locked-in into competing privacy-preserving coin/project/concepts/companies/solutions.

[Its About Sharing]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

I just don't trust them. A "legitimate" anonymous cash, in the end, I just don't think will be anonymous. You can be sure the agencies are following them closely, if not involved (though I do believe the source will be made public?) I just think they must have been compromised along the way - we are talking enslavement, I mean money here.

I'm sure a lot of work is going into here: https://z.cash/blog/auditing-zcash.html

Yes,  I completely agree with those thoughts.  There is something of a disconnect as if you are being sold something illicit by a bunch of people who work in the criminal justice system. 

What seems so disappointing is that so many* of the younger folks here seem ready to follow this rather than XMR.

*completely anecdotal judgement based on a small and unscientific sample

Heavily premined coin plus the fact you need to trust them 100% to have destroyed the initialization seed made me decide to not buy Zerocoin at all. Even though purely technical it's math is superior to Monero. But with Moneoro I don't need to trust anyone (let alone untrustworthy people!)

You and I might feel that way but will the rest of the market? ZCash will be the New Kid in Town and, as such, the Poloniex kids are going to love it. The market thrives on shiny new coins and ZCash will be the shiniest of them all given the money and backing it has.

I admit that I'm worried it will affect Monero's recent rise.

Yeah, there will be that new interest for sure. And even some larger money might move in. Really hard to predict where this space goes but I get the feeling some "directed money" is going to be a distraction. If that seed is at all compromised, and who is to say they can't Patriot Act their way into it, then it can be the perfect Trojan Horse for a continuation of their Surveillance State.

[elrippo]

Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump


This Pump

[nanobrain]

Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump
snip
This Pump
snip

Minus one point for 'landies'  
Minus one point for 'shematics'  
Minus several points for calling market rises 'pumps'.  

Other than that your basic point 'markets go down as well as up' is valid.  

However, you fail to recognise that if you had bought in on Mar 26th (close to .004) you would now be sitting on profits of 500% and wouldn't have had to go through all the uncertainty of "when should I buy back".  

[obit33]

Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump


This Pump

couldn't care less... even if you bought at the top of what you call the previous pump, you still made out like a bandit right now...

and again, this is not your ordinary pump, monero has utility now... you seem to be the only one who doesn't get this... would you say that bitcoin reaching 600$ was a pump & dump? Sure, there were pumps, but all in all bitcoin is worth this much now because of utility...

let's hope the same happens with monero, good luck trading it... I won't try it for sure

best regards

[TrueCryptonaire]

Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump
CHART

This Pump
CHART

couldn't care less... even if you bought at the top of what you call the previous pump, you still made out like a bandit right now...

and again, this is not your ordinary pump, monero has utility now... you seem to be the only one who doesn't get this... would you say that bitcoin reaching 600$ was a pump & dump? Sure, there were pumps, but all in all bitcoin is worth this much now because of utility...

let's hope the same happens with monero, good luck trading it... I won't try it for sure

best regards

I agree. The previous pumps were orchestrated by whales, now it is different.
There is a real world use case and therefore I am more hopeful the current bullish trend continues and will make a different charts this time on which you can base your trading in the years to come.
There are fundamentals now backing it up.

Personally I hope all the people selling too early will not get a chance to buy significiant lower because it makes the future rises harder and harder.

[TrueCryptonaire]

When the market cap of Monero will exceed the marketcap of bitcoin that will be a great day. When shall it happen?

In the beginning I thought alts are secondary to Bitcoin, so can only serve niches that entitle them to at max a few % of marketcap. Bitcoin used to be between 90-95% of total crypto marketcap then.

Some time after I had bought into Monero, I realised that it does everything that Bitcoin does, but better (by being anonymous by design). This lead me to think that normal innovation adoption rules apply, and even if Commodore 64 has 100% of the markets at some point, it can be replaced by IBM PC, or NES, or both, subsequently. For this stage, I even formulated the wealth preservation theorem that stated "if any of the alts reaches 20% of BTC marketcap for the reason that it is better than BTC, this will cause 2-5% of BTC wealth to move to that alt for wealth preservation/hedging, which will snowball the alt to become 80% instead of 20% (hence trump BTC in market cap).

Now I am unsure if such a mechanism would actually take place, due to so much inertia that has been accumulated in the system. So I am leaning towards peaceful coexistence, which allows multiple coins to live and have higher and lower market caps. The history shows this is not a winner-takes-it-all market, even if I had thought so. The opposite is true: small things grow and die, BTC stays. But BTC does not account for 90-95% of the market cap any more, as the small things have grown faster.

Yes, there is still a scenario that some coin will take over Bitcoin, and the only coin that has realistic chance to do it is Monero. This will likely require a major flaw in Bitcoin first, but it is already suffering from a death by thousand cuts, if we are honest and clear-sighted.

I am not saying btc and xmr cannot coexist peacefully.
I am more interested in pondering how probable it is more will gain higher marketcap than bitcoin.
I have no doubt btc will lose to some alt coin in market cap. The real question here is if the revolution is orchestrated by Monero or some other coin existing today or in the future.
Bitcoin wise it looks it barely can dump and each  time it has a significiant dump, somewhere is a hack case which takes 30-50 % of bitcoin's market cap. That is not certainly good when it comes to the network effect of bitcoin. In order to create a network effect you need a bullish trend just like bitcoin used to have from the beginning until the end of 2013.

[slapper]

Just read his post history for real shits and giggles https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=448172;sa=showPosts

Probably the alt of Trade_BTC and you haven't seen the last of the free financial advisors.

Key takeaway: He sold (according to him at 0.0085, in reality probably much lower because at that time 0.009 was peak). So now he has to play cuntrag on a daily basis. He won't understand your language either. So everyone has to read his shitposts about doom and gloom and red regularly.

[obit33]

and you haven't seen the last of the free financial advisors.

This. tons of newbie accounts coming out giving financial advice, bah...

I predict a new ATH by tomorrownight for XMR, based on voodoo, sorcery and far from superior TA-skills!

[cAPSLOCK]

Minus one point for 'landies'  
Minus one point for 'shematics'  

Wasn't "Landies and Gents" the second album by The Shemantics?

[coinism]

it's indeed plausible XMR continues to x2 - x4 from it's current mc until end oct. once zc comes out i would predict a similar scenario as what we saw with BTC just now. i suppose the recent BTC rally was mostly triggered by XMR exits etc. i would imagine people to trade and hedge XMR profits into zc hoping to make some more profit and play the market in end oct. But until zc comes out i'd imagine XMR to be the favorite day trading and / or holding crypto. Couple of more main stream news stories, GUI release etc and more fans = 0.05-0.1. why not..  

[coinism]

Just about 15% + to top LTC mc

[Globb0]

Landies and Gents, please be careful with your XMR!
IF this pump follows the same shematics as the last one, i would sell my XMR now and buy back in way lower.
Just look at the similarities from the last pump, only the timeframe and volume from this august-september pump is more intense.

Last Pump


This Pump

I managed to hold on to my hands as it was dumping, but I was there early enough. Watching. Just expecting the counter pump any second that never came.

Be nice if I could make my 800 back into the original 1400 from a few years back though. But maybe that's greedy.

I invested in better times and now we are struggling so no new money can come in from me. But I always considered this a long term thing and not an option for just collecting a few dollars to fritter on nothing.

[Drhiggins]

Wow!  483 nodes up and running.   Most I've ever seen and I look a few times each day.

https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html