[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation. 
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

[Anon136]

TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation.  
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

Its like you said. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. If there isnt that yet the price is still high, this is an indication that maybe the price ought not be so high. A high price on low liquidity is not healthy. Short sellers help to keep this in check. They are useful little parasites. Like medical leeches.

[ArticMine]

[

When the market cap of Monero will exceed the marketcap of bitcoin that will be a great day. When shall it happen?

In the beginning I thought alts are secondary to Bitcoin, so can only serve niches that entitle them to at max a few % of marketcap. Bitcoin used to be between 90-95% of total crypto marketcap then.

Some time after I had bought into Monero, I realised that it does everything that Bitcoin does, but better (by being anonymous by design). This lead me to think that normal innovation adoption rules apply, and even if Commodore 64 has 100% of the markets at some point, it can be replaced by IBM PC, or NES, or both, subsequently. For this stage, I even formulated the wealth preservation theorem that stated "if any of the alts reaches 20% of BTC marketcap for the reason that it is better than BTC, this will cause 2-5% of BTC wealth to move to that alt for wealth preservation/hedging, which will snowball the alt to become 80% instead of 20% (hence trump BTC in market cap).

Now I am unsure if such a mechanism would actually take place, due to so much inertia that has been accumulated in the system. So I am leaning towards peaceful coexistence, which allows multiple coins to live and have higher and lower market caps. The history shows this is not a winner-takes-it-all market, even if I had thought so. The opposite is true: small things grow and die, BTC stays. But BTC does not account for 90-95% of the market cap any more, as the small things have grown faster.

Yes, there is still a scenario that some coin will take over Bitcoin, and the only coin that has realistic chance to do it is Monero. This will likely require a major flaw in Bitcoin first, but it is already suffering from a death by thousand cuts, if we are honest and clear-sighted.

There is an aspect of Monero that is still not understood my many if not most market participants and the above post is a good example. This is of course the maximum 1 MB blocksize in Bitcoin issue, which is not mentioned in the post. Ironically I was introduced to Monero in 2014 when I came across rpietila's old Altcoin Observer thread by accident while researching the blocksize issue in Bitcoin. At the time I considered the 1 MB blocksize issue in Bitcoin a serious but fixable flaw that was not getting the attention that it warranted. Now I am convinced that it is a major flaw with no clear solution and it is possible that a solution may not exist at all, making it a fatal flaw. In order to address this flaw the only solutions that I am aware of require both an adaptive blocksize limit and a tail emission.

The economics then become rather stark. If one eliminates tokens whose primary purpose is or was something other than use as a currency by end users. Then one gets Bitcoin, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Dogecoin and we are down to number 13 in market cap. Litecoin has the same major or fatal flaw as Bitcoin. Then we get Monero. Next on the list is Dash which also has the same major flaw. One could argue however the flaw in the case of Dash as not fatal because unlike Litecoin or Bitcoin, Dash has at least a very small chance of incorporating a tail emission. Ironically this is because of the controversy surrounding the instamine launch of Dash. The next in line is Dogecoin which already has a tail emission. If it implements an adaptive blocksize for example similar to that in Monero it could become a contender.

If we consider that there is a valid pent up demand for transactions that Bitcoin has not been able to meet for close to three years nor for that matter can any of its other major competitors , then I would consider the highly toxic position of someone that is caught short Monero at this point, if even a small fraction of the growth in Bitcoin, that could have occurred were it not for the 1 MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin, were flow instead to Monero. Crypto Kingdom by the way just recently got a very minuscule dose of this deadly financial poison, and is now on the way to a full recovery.

[Hueristic]

TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation. 
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

That's right! Everyone listen to Mr. LendAtStupidLowRates since margin opened!

TA is very apt for a speculation thread.  I find it comforting when many are predicting correction.  It implies money on the sidelines.

Who is the "vulture" guy?

People on the sidelines might be the very same people pumped bitcoin up on Sunday. Monero dump can possibly be also just manipulation with excessive dumps on margin.
I do not like the fact that the margin dumpers can make money with Monero. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. Dumping should not be the way to make money - nobody benefits from it. It hurts the community as a collective when their investments lose value. Also those who dump can very well be in long position and make their money in that way, win-win situation. 
That can be achieved if there are enough bids close to the market.

Its like you said. We need enough liquidity to eat all the dumpers alive. If there isnt that yet the price is still high, this is an indication that maybe the price ought not be so high. A high price on low liquidity is not healthy. Short sellers help to keep this in check. They are useful little parasites. Like medical leeches.

The leechers are the ones doing the lending and telling everyone else to shore up the price.

[coinism]

Just a 10% push more at current mc's to top LTC. That will be some kind of a milestone imho.

[Anon136]

Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

[owlcatz]

Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

yes. it's been off and on for a bit now.

[smoothie]

Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

time to take a nap? 

[aminorex]

Just a 10% push more at current mc's to top LTC. That will be some kind of a milestone imho.

We passed that milestone once already then slipped back.

Anyhow, I know the walrus was Paul, but who is the vulture?

[Anon136]

Were other people unable to access BCT for a couple hours?

time to take a nap? 

HA! That is exactly what I did.

[Billy Bunter]

Some nice movement going on.

[OrangeP]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.


The entry door is very likely through Bitcoin. Given the current trading volumes, it is not crazy to suspect that up to 50% of this money is supposed to be traded into Monero.

Therefore we'll see a market cap. decline of Bitcoin somewhere around the $300 million range. This money will go into Monero within the next days. Let's just assume that a lot of profit taking will be going on.

Still it's more likely than not we'll end up somewhere around $20. And this is just the potential with the current money in the system.

I see no reason to be bearish within the next weeks.

[smooth]

I noticed this:

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hour/

1   Poloniex   XMR/BTC   $23,586,600   $606.30   30.12%
2   itBit      BTC/USD   $8,525,400   $606.49   10.89%
3   BTC-E      BTC/USD   $3,590,960   $602.95   4.58%
4   Bitfinex   BTC/USD   $3,004,960   $611.83   3.84%
5   Poloniex   ETC/BTC   $2,404,090   $606.30   3.07%

Poloniex XMR/BTC is by far the highest volume trading pair in all of crypto (not counting sham zero-fee exchanges). No way to escape that XMR trading must have some effect on BTC, not just the other way.

[infofront]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

I've just been looking at the zcash site -- they all seem like a very shiny bunch, about as far removed from the ideals of the early BTCers as you could imagine.  My first impression was...the Apple of crypto and it makes me wonder why such a bunch would be interested in privacy.  They seem quite forthright that they are in it for the wealth.

But I suspect a lot of funds will flow from the PnDpers who will see a ground floor opportunity.

In another thread, someone was saying that half the Zcash dev team worked for Israeli Signals Intelligence. I don't know if there's any proof of that, but clearly some of them have worked in Israeli academia, which usually overlaps with the Israeli Military/Intelligence establishment.

[cAPSLOCK]

Just a 10% push more at current mc's to top LTC. That will be some kind of a milestone imho.

We passed that milestone once already then slipped back.

Anyhow, I know the walrus was Paul, but who is the vulture?

This twit I imagine.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=480217

[aminorex]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.


The entry door is very likely through Bitcoin. Given the current trading volumes, it is not crazy to suspect that up to 50% of this money is supposed to be traded into Monero.

Therefore we'll see a market cap. decline of Bitcoin somewhere around the $300 million range. This money will go into Monero within the next days. Let's just assume that a lot of profit taking will be going on.

Everything you said made sense except the decline in btc market cap.  Surely the influx of fiat into btc is raising btc's market clearing price and hence market cap.

Fiat flows into btc. BTCUSD goes up.  Btc flows into XMR.  XMRBTC goes up.  End of story until new flows occur. Btc wins, and monero wins².  Only fiat loses.

[Its About Sharing]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.


The entry door is very likely through Bitcoin. Given the current trading volumes, it is not crazy to suspect that up to 50% of this money is supposed to be traded into Monero.

Therefore we'll see a market cap. decline of Bitcoin somewhere around the $300 million range. This money will go into Monero within the next days. Let's just assume that a lot of profit taking will be going on.

Everything you said made sense except the decline in btc market cap.  Surely the influx of fiat into btc is raising btc's market clearing price and hence market cap.

Fiat flows into btc. BTCUSD goes up.  Btc flows into XMR.  XMRBTC goes up.  End of story until new flows occur. Btc wins, and monero wins².  Only fiat loses.

Yep. I was thinking the same thing. Well said.

Anyone watching the ticker here? Really seems like Monero is being walked up.
Gonna break this symetrical triangle (4 hour chart) real soon...

[Drhiggins]

Have been watching.  There were some huge sale orders not 30 minutes ago. 

[nanobrain]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.


The entry door is very likely through Bitcoin. Given the current trading volumes, it is not crazy to suspect that up to 50% of this money is supposed to be traded into Monero.

Therefore we'll see a market cap. decline of Bitcoin somewhere around the $300 million range. This money will go into Monero within the next days. Let's just assume that a lot of profit taking will be going on.

Everything you said made sense except the decline in btc market cap.  Surely the influx of fiat into btc is raising btc's market clearing price and hence market cap.

Fiat flows into btc. BTCUSD goes up.  Btc flows into XMR.  XMRBTC goes up.  End of story until new flows occur. Btc wins, and monero wins².  Only fiat loses.

Yep. I was thinking the same thing. Well said.

Anyone watching the ticker here? Really seems like Monero is being walked up.
Gonna break this symetrical triangle (4 hour chart) real soon...

Last half hour or so.  This sell wall of around 1Kbtc flashes up just front of the price point, lets pressure build then disappears; "being walked up" is a good description.  Its as if someone wants the rise to be slow and steady...good on em I say

[Anon136]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.


The entry door is very likely through Bitcoin. Given the current trading volumes, it is not crazy to suspect that up to 50% of this money is supposed to be traded into Monero.

Therefore we'll see a market cap. decline of Bitcoin somewhere around the $300 million range. This money will go into Monero within the next days. Let's just assume that a lot of profit taking will be going on.

Everything you said made sense except the decline in btc market cap.  Surely the influx of fiat into btc is raising btc's market clearing price and hence market cap.

Fiat flows into btc. BTCUSD goes up.  Btc flows into XMR.  XMRBTC goes up.  End of story until new flows occur. Btc wins, and monero wins².  Only fiat loses.

This is right. But it is relevant to consider that someone who just sold usd and bought btc is less likely to sell btc for usd than someone who just sold xmr for btc.