[XMR] Monero Speculation

[tifozi]

Just a few pages ago we were discussing the XMR impact/correlation with a rising BTC and I was convinced that the inverse relationship might be history. But I see that this was a trigger to slow down the XMR rise as the ones who had gotten in > 0.015 didn't probably understand the last 2 years of XMR pricing and development, as say people in this thread. They were quicker to jump off along with the ones who *might* have planned any BTC spikes. There was nothing new in BTC land, so what could be the reason for the recent BTC rise?

There is a theory floating around that this was done to dETH as well. The dETH rise was only able to be checked once BTC started spiking but there were other external factors at that time, including but not limited to BTC halving.

Either way it has a funny smell, and it is not of The Rock cooking.

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[opennux]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.


The entry door is very likely through Bitcoin. Given the current trading volumes, it is not crazy to suspect that up to 50% of this money is supposed to be traded into Monero.

Therefore we'll see a market cap. decline of Bitcoin somewhere around the $300 million range. This money will go into Monero within the next days. Let's just assume that a lot of profit taking will be going on.

Still it's more likely than not we'll end up somewhere around $20. And this is just the potential with the current money in the system.

I see no reason to be bearish within the next weeks.

The influx would be several magnitudes below the nominal market cap increase.

[nanobrain]

EDIT - spoke too soon

[Anon136]

EDIT - spoke too soon

Seems to be reacting well. I'm surprised it isn't melting the thin support.

[aminorex]

The influx would be several magnitudes below the nominal market cap increase.

IIRC someone did a calc to the effect that $1 inflow moved cap by ~$10 during one or another of the btc bubbles.  Anyhow, what moves btc cap by 600 could move XMR cap by 600.   I'd find that amusing.

EDIT - spoke too soon

Seems to be reacting well. I'm surprised it isn't melting the thin support.

The whole market (both sides) must be like 95% our whale accumulator friend.  He's got the price on a very tight collar.  Any time now I guess he'll decide to whip his hair back and forth.  Dude knows his bidnis.

[opennux]

The influx would be several magnitudes below the nominal market cap increase.

IIRC someone did a calc to the effect that $1 inflow moved cap by ~$10 during one or another of the btc bubbles.  Anyhow, what moves btc cap by 600 could move XMR cap by 600.   I'd find that amusing.

Rpietila did some I remember.

[TrueCryptonaire]

There seems to be a great wall of Moneros on the ask side.. I wonder what happens if a bitcoin maximalist eats it alive while diversifying...?  

[cAPSLOCK]

The whole market (both sides) must be like 95% our whale accumulator friend.  He's got the price on a very tight collar.  Any time now I guess he'll decide to whip his hair back and forth.  Dude knows his bidnis.

I have been thinking the exact same thing. Its the next part that delights me. What motivation does he have to do this... Right here... At the all time high?  Why?

[cAPSLOCK]

There seems to be a great wall of Moneros on the ask side.. I wonder what happens if a bitcoin maximalist eats it alive while diversifying...?  

.

That would be an epic move.  But it's not likely really.

[nanobrain]

By my vague calculations we should be past .03 if this slow march is enforced for the next 24 hours.

[aminorex]

I have been thinking the exact same thing. Its the next part that delights me. What motivation does he have to do this... Right here... At the all time high?  Why?

He wants all the moneroj.  Cheap.  I am guessing he spikes it to 03, loans himself monero cheap, and shorts it down to 0188, holds it down a few hours so the ask fill in, then sweeps the book again.  Its what I would do if I had about 30mm to play with and didn't care who got hurt.  (But of course saying it in public reduces the likelihood quite substantially.)

Why?  I imagine: He anticipates $100 moneroj in 12 months.  But I think he's optimistic.  $25 average, maybe with a spike to $40-50.

If he has $120mm to play with, the game changes.  Then he plans to run the mcap up to 1bn, and start selling to HNW savers escaping DM tax/into policies.  Freeport customers, that sort.  That's a 5 year game that nets him about $1 bn and puts XMRBTC at parity 3-5 years ahead of the organic schedule, his final notional exit point.  No reason to add big (40-60% swing)  vol in that case, just ramp it until you run dry, short it 20-30% down, rinse, repeat.  My 12 month estimate would be $125, were that the case.  (Low probability due to capital outlay size.)

Anyhow, he's not doing it to make us wealthy, that's a certainty.  It's just a happy side-effect.  One way to help is to make market, but rather small and fast - with bots, really, using very little capital, except on wide spreads, biased upwards.  You might lose a wee on the inside every time he makes it rip or dip, but hopefully your deep-book orders more than make up for it during vol spikes - and the visible liquidity attracts both currency uses and reserve clients for the whale.

Cool story?

Anyhow it's getting close to the hour when he tends to get twitchy.

[megges]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.

I don't want to be the bad guy, but i think i have to say something, after it seems noone else is willing to tell it you ....

It's often a common misunderstanding from new bitcoin users, and i'm sure the old guys in here know it exactly, but noone is telling it, for some reason they are even telling you that you are right ...

An 600 million $ marketcap increase for sure does not mean that there were 600 $ dollar invested in bitcoin .... marketcap = total number of coins * current market price ... an increase in the marketcap is not an indicator of how much new money is invested. (You could say that there is new money, but for sure you could not tell that it is 600 millon $.)

Most in here know that, and you seem to be new in here (from your post count) ... i realy can't understand that noone is explaining that to you, instead they are cheering your numbers, what the hack is wrong with you guys? noone? realy?

[coinism]

Just a 10% push more at current mc's to top LTC. That will be some kind of a milestone imho.

We passed that milestone once already then slipped back.

Anyhow, I know the walrus was Paul, but who is the vulture?

yeh, that peak was nice XMR should be able to settle above LTC for a longer period - like forever.

[phoenix9110]

There has been an influx of 600.000.000 fresh $ to the crypto market within the past days.
http://imgur.com/4l00TB4

I don't want to be the bad guy, but i think i have to say something, after it seems noone else is willing to tell it you ....

It's often a common misunderstanding from new bitcoin users, and i'm sure the old guys in here know it exactly, but noone is telling it, for some reason they are even telling you that you are right ...

An 600 million $ marketcap increase for sure does not mean that there were 600 $ dollar invested in bitcoin .... marketcap = total number of coins * current market price ... an increase in the marketcap is not an indicator of how much new money is invested. (You could say that there is new money, but for sure you could not tell that it is 600 millon $.)

Most in here know that, and you seem to be new in here (from your post count) ... i realy can't understand that noone is explaining that to you, instead they are cheering your numbers, what the hack is wrong with you guys? noone? realy?

It's stock price times the number of shares, is it not?

[aminorex]

i realy can't understand that noone is explaining that to you...?

Evidently you haven't been reading the thread very carefully.

[aminorex]

It's stock price times the number of shares, is it not?

Yes.  If the shares last cleared at 100 and there is a 1mm float, and I buy one share for 101, the cap rises 1mm on my 101 moneyflow.  But then you sell the book down to 99, which requires 100 lots of 100, dropping the cap 2mm, while receiving ~1mm.  How much cap moves on flow is determined by the distribution of the book and how closely balanced the flows are.

Rational accumulators and distributors alike usually prefer to deal without impacting cap.  Anything else may be illegal manipulation, in u.s. equities.  Of course in crypto no one has ever been charged with a crime for price manipulation per se, AFAICT.

[nanobrain]

I have been thinking the exact same thing. Its the next part that delights me. What motivation does he have to do this... Right here... At the all time high?  Why?

He wants all the moneroj.  Cheap.  I am guessing he spikes it to 03, loans himself monero cheap, and shorts it down to 0188, holds it down a few hours so the ask fill in, then sweeps the book again.  Its what I would do if I had about 30mm to play with and didn't care who got hurt.  (But of course saying it in public reduces the likelihood quite substantially.)

Why?  I imagine: He anticipates $100 moneroj in 12 months.  But I think he's optimistic.  $25 average, maybe with a spike to $40-50.

If he has $120mm to play with, the game changes.  Then he plans to run the mcap up to 1bn, and start selling to HNW savers escaping DM tax/into policies.  Freeport customers, that sort.  That's a 5 year game that nets him about $1 bn and puts XMRBTC at parity 3-5 years ahead of the organic schedule, his final notional exit point.  No reason to add big (40-60% swing)  vol in that case, just ramp it until you run dry, short it 20-30% down, rinse, repeat.  My 12 month estimate would be $125, were that the case.  (Low probability due to capital outlay size.)

Anyhow, he's not doing it to make us wealthy, that's a certainty.  It's just a happy side-effect.  One way to help is to make market, but rather small and fast - with bots, really, using very little capital, except on wide spreads, biased upwards.  You might lose a wee on the inside every time he makes it rip or dip, but hopefully your deep-book orders more than make up for it during vol spikes - and the visible liquidity attracts both currency uses and reserve clients for the whale.

Cool story?

Anyhow it's getting close to the hour when he tends to get twitchy.

Cool story but predicated on the understanding everyone else is fine playing out the game for her outcome.  As you say, her intentions will not be altruistic but if she* goes complete 'rape and pillage' the market will eventually thin out -- so she has to give new money an incentive to enter the game.  This clear and obvious wall strategy is going to become wearisome with the day traders especially.

I'm also wondering about your calculation that she totals 95% of the current market - surely the regulars here must alone total more than 5% of the order board (and significantly more in terms of total holdings).

*If the pronoun use here were accurate then perhaps this individual would be more altruistic

[bitebits]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/51bwgd/the_hacker_has_just_withdrawn_their_booty_from/

If I were 'the hacker' I would, for obvious reasons, be hungry for Monero. The only question is how you get a non-fungible crypto into a the fungible one.

[smfuser]

What potential conflict of interest were you referring to? What do you believe to be Roger Ver's true motive? Do you believe he made a substantial investment in Monero, which was more than in any other altcoin?

Roger Ver is an investor in zcash: https://z.cash/team.html

Thanks, I already knew about his investment in the Zcash company, and I wondered whether his supposed claim (according to Bloomberg) that he invested more in Monero than any other altcoin also applied to that Zcash investment. If that was the potential conflict of interest tifozi meant, I still wonder what tifozi suspected could be Roger Ver's ulterior motive behind his apparent recent public support of Monero. Given that Monero will probably remain a better cryptocurrency to hold than Zcash for the foreseeable future, it wouldn't be surprising if Roger Ver belatedly realized that.

[Anon136]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/51bwgd/the_hacker_has_just_withdrawn_their_booty_from/

If I were 'the hacker' I would, for obvious reasons, be hungry for Monero. The only question is how you get a non-fungible crypto into a the fungible one.

The hackers funds belong to him legitimately free and clear on the etc chain because of the professed principles of the etc devs and community (ones that the devs abandoned and subsequently forked the chain to make a new ethereum without inconvenient principles).

But either way I smell an etc buying opportunity if people react very poorly to this news.