[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

waiting for the price to crash with this low volume

If the volume goes down after crash, it is bullish (the sellers are out of ammo).
If the volume goes down after boom, it is bearish (the buyers are out of ammo).

[GTO911]

Whatever games go on, we all know where this is going in 2 years

[Febo]

Price is in decline with decreasing volumes...

Last month Monero had 20% of BTC volume and volume was as much as ETH, ETC and LTC together.
We cant expect that to go on. If it would that would mean quite soon BTC = XMR.

I think volume of 10k BTC is huge.

[Mr.Joker]

I still think it will get a big correction

[Febo]

I still think it will get a big correction

-25% from ATH is not that small correction.

[coinism]

XMR is about -20.5 % down in price from it's recent ATH. XMR is thus just slightly touching bear market in classical terms - as a singel traded commodity instead of multiple broad market indexes, wich can also be used to determine a bigger market. although there is no generally agreed upon def of 'bear market' it just simply means: market is down about -20% or more from recent ATH over a period of time (generally 2 months or more). It's a transition period from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism. What then usually happens is prices fall and widespread FOMO, FUD, short sighted pessimism causes the market's downward spiral to be self-sustaining. bear markets should never be confused with a price correction! which is a short-term trend that has a duration of fewer than two months. I believe this to be a short-term trend. Not a bear market.

..but.. with crypto currencies, as some here already know, most of the classical market theories DO NOT WORK.
Everything works faster, more unstable, more unpredictable, more volatility. I'm still seeing the situation as a sideway run. Volume was expected to decrease once the feeding frenzy is over. ETH's run is a prime example, much lower volume now, but price has been relatively steady.
another bull run would be unexpected without significant new tech, like a proper GUI now.

[cryptonic21]

I am not a trader, but it's difficult not to trade. I would never think I can buy for the current price, but I do it. I want more and I am just a little fish. I believe in Monero. Every coin matters.

[aminorex]

XMRBTC volume is never going to allow XMR to reach parity, but only asymptote.  Parity and beyond will require direct fiat volume.  We need some diligence on the livecoin.net management, to get XMRUSD flowing.

Another bull run will come when a large accumulator decides to increase their position.  Since our new whale friend is a long term bull, and his disappearing scare walls show that he has been suppressing price, I have to conclude that he plans to force liquidate the shorts, thereby taking their monero and their btc.  Meanwhile he buys cheap, and does not let them cover. Ideally he would seek to squeeze both longs and shorts, alternately.

Alternatively a bull run can come very slowly, creeping, as the economy grows.

The mooted impetus, technical developments, will often trigger grassroots speculation, which is perhaps the least stable form of price support, outside of sheer Ponzi pumping.  It does, however, add to the confidence of hodlers, as well as facilitating adoption in the very long run.

I agree with febo and TrueCryptonaire about volume.  When volume drops enough, it will mean the shorts are exhausted, and ripe for squeezing.

I disagree that classic wisdom doesn't work.  It merely needs to be appropriately conditioned on actual market structure, scaled appropriately, etc. The roles of supply and demand do not change.  The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change.

[Mr.Joker]

Remember, the lower the price the whales can accumulate, the bigger the profits when they move the price higher again. %%

[coinism]

I disagree that classic wisdom doesn't work.  It merely needs to be appropriately conditioned on actual market structure, scaled appropriately, etc. The roles of supply and demand do not change.  The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change.

not sure about wisdom, but most of the classical market theories don't work as such. scaling, conditioning, structuring them differently would not make them classical as such anymore. it's always good to know the basics though and use that knowledge as much as possible. 
"The roles of supply and demand do not change. The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change." 100% so. those are some examples that are basic, mostly static fundamentals of economics. 

[RayX12]

The pesky whale has been showing his 40k coins to scare the market.  Also a group of sellers have built a containment wall at 199 to 203.  That puts a stop at the 199 level of up to 1700 BTC.

I suspect the intention is to accumulate as many coins as possible below the 200 level and to take advantage of any downward move to accumulate cheap coins.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The pesky whale has been showing his 40k coins to scare the market.  Also a group of sellers have built a containment wall at 199 to 203.  That puts a stop at the 199 level of up to 1700 BTC.

I suspect the intention is to accumulate as many coins as possible below the 200 level and to take advantage of any downward move to accumulate cheap coins.

It looks the scare walls are mainly borrowed coins  (you can see this by observing the lending markets meanwhile the wall appears/disappears).

At some point Monero being this cheap the fundamentals should automatically pump up the price.
The supply of XMR is surprisingly inelastic meanwhile the people in dark markets are literally hunting for Moneros to buy their stuff. And vendors have no reason to dump more moneros than they need for replacing the demand. Therefore the added value of DNM vendors probably will flow into the market cap of Monero.

[TrueCryptonaire]

XMRBTC volume is never going to allow XMR to reach parity, but only asymptote.  Parity and beyond will require direct fiat volume.  We need some diligence on the livecoin.net management, to get XMRUSD flowing.

Another bull run will come when a large accumulator decides to increase their position.  Since our new whale friend is a long term bull, and his disappearing scare walls show that he has been suppressing price, I have to conclude that he plans to force liquidate the shorts, thereby taking their monero and their btc.  Meanwhile he buys cheap, and does not let them cover. Ideally he would seek to squeeze both longs and shorts, alternately.

Alternatively a bull run can come very slowly, creeping, as the economy grows.

The mooted impetus, technical developments, will often trigger grassroots speculation, which is perhaps the least stable form of price support, outside of sheer Ponzi pumping.  It does, however, add to the confidence of hodlers, as well as facilitating adoption in the very long run.

I agree with febo and TrueCryptonaire about volume.  When volume drops enough, it will mean the shorts are exhausted, and ripe for squeezing.

I disagree that classic wisdom doesn't work.  It merely needs to be appropriately conditioned on actual market structure, scaled appropriately, etc. The roles of supply and demand do not change.  The implications of liquidity and leverage do not change.

First of all, a huge thank you for feeding my narcissm by endorsement.  
However, I have to respectfully disagree with the your statement that the trading pair btc-xmr will not allow XMR gaining larger market cap than btc.
Parity with btc comes from intermediation of supply vs. demand. If current holders of 12 800 000 will all together decide not to give any markets, not buy anything, just hold their coins outside of the exchanges, there is only coins that are mined today and in the future that is available for the people holding bitcoins.

Therefore it is possible that some day you need more than 1 btc to buy 1 single Monero so my advice is to treat Monero as it was more valuable than bitcoin. That treatment makes Monero actually more valuable than bitcoin in the long run.
In similar way as self fulfilling prophecy.

[cryptimus prime]

If current holders of 12 800 000 will all together decide not to give any markets, not buy anything, just hold their coins outside of the exchanges, there is only coins that are mined today and in the future that is available for the people holding bitcoins.

Therefore it is possible that some day you need more than 1 btc to buy 1 single Monero so my advice is to treat Monero as it was more valuable than bitcoin. That treatment makes Monero actually more valuable than bitcoin in the long run. In similar way as self fulfilling prophecy.

I agree 100%.
XMR is in fact more valuable and precious as BTC.

The only difference is: BTC has a higher popularity at this moment, but this is changing from day to day.

[RayX12]

Acceptance in AB

I did a little search for products that you can buy with MONERO and found a 28% to 56% acceptance depending on types of markets.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am sure there are people with 80k XMR. Not only one but some.  And you can freely call them Whales.

My standard model says the number of such people is 10-15.

But because I don't know many of such, and should know, this means it is possible that there is a Leviathan group controlling a large number of coins (1-2 million or more), which skews the distribution and causes the dearth of pocket whales in the 100k range.

So Cthulhu is required to have more than 1-2 million coins these days? Correct me if I am wrong but I have an impression that cthulhu has more coins than Leviathan..?

[GreekBitcoin]

I sold a week ago. Still holding a small amount. It was a very good move. But now i want you to dump more so i can buy rather lower.
The first reason was that it was going too fast and eventually it would have a correction. As it did though i expect a bigger one.
The second reason was that i really couldnt keep up with watching it. It was taking too much time from my life. Actually it was probably the anxiety

I see for so much time very good work being done. And i see for 10 months now only good news. The project continues to be serious, productive and is actually fun! If you know what i mean. I dont think that we have passed the point where we can say that monero would never die but i really can imagine a bright future.

So right now my bets are in a dump because
a)I would argue that it needs a bigger correction for weak hands to leave (i might be the weak hands) and whales to accumulate more,
b)btc seems bullish and all altcoins dump when this happens (although monero has held some times or was bullish in the same time),
c)zcash is coming for which although i think it will eventually be a massive flop there will also be too much hype at the start and too much fud against monero (long term monero will win again as it has done with every single coin ever trying to compete(i can count at least 10)).
d)I believe that i see a few signs of greed after justified enthusiasm.

In any case, if it goes to the moon right now (which is really not that far fetched) so be it! I will still be happy for the project, my good profit and my small xmr amount i still hold.  

About monero status app, yeah unfortunately i cant persuade my friend to spend more time on it right now. He has it in mind though. At least i persuaded him to hold some xmr and he actually also did a small uni presentation for both monero and zcash cryptography.

[Blazin8888]

PETER TODD ON XMR: https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-fbi-wants-zero-privacy-security-bitcoin-community-should-protect-its-freedoms

[aminorex]

I have an impression that cthulhu has more coins than Leviathan..?

There is no market dark enough.

[DaveyJones]

Like i said earlier, let's wait for the weekend, if this stepping down continues in the same manner, we will reach 0,017 by saturday, think about it...

You can quote me if you succeed... i will quote you if you dont succeed

Fair enough +1

14 minutes left at Saturday and  1942 BTC to 0.0179 ... seems you were wrong