[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Azael]

I have noticed that there are some people that I would assume are part of the Monero team who are defending the current price movements. I ask you this, does the price really matter to you if it is low or high?

Some CEOs say they don't care about their stock price more or less and some hype it outright and both are methods to increase the price of the stock.

I'd say if they own XMR the price matters and also helps funding for XMR development.

[N-rG]

Hi guys,


i checked AlphaBay again and have unfortunately not so good news.

few days before i said

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

I sold my XMR stock for now.
 

[Azael]

Hi guys,


i checked AlphaBay again and have unfortunately not so good news.

few days before i said

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

I sold my XMR stock for now.
 

And you have a short position now? 

[Azael]

I've been buying since 0188 and will continue.  There's about 150k XMR available cheap now.  That won't last long.  This is the biggest shake-out in history.  Since 1/2015 any how.

In other speculations, who do you think will be the next U.S. president, Kaine or Pence?

I'm happy I use DCA for volatile coins.

[explorer]

The legendary Fontas is cautiously bullish on XMR. Predicts a V bottom, followed by a long drawn out bear market.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/1RaAMKMF-Monero-XMR-flush-toilet-time/

10 days ago that was posted...

we were supposed to hit 0.01 days ago.

Where is the 0.01 coins?

Hardly a crash if volume  of the decline < volume of the rise.

Where's the crash?

Perhaps font-ass doesn't follow the fundamentals of XMR and of course should be assumed to be just a pumper and dumper.

XMR fundamentals much stronger than fontas can imagine.

Volume less than XRP.  That is one I really don't get. 

Price grinding down on low (relative) volume, just running out dump?  Or is it too risky to do market short dumps?  I would have thought that was the case anywhere below 0.018, but then I'm always wrong.  Where is range driver?

   Last low of 0.001612 was like that.  Just kind of ran out of dump, and a couple weeks later, Pow!

[aminorex]

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

Never one to trust blindly what can easily be verified, I did my own sampling:  43 bitcoin to 8 monero, 18.6%  (Page count, psychedelics, trust levels 4 to 5, to stay under page cap).  Maybe you slipped a decimal.  

When I searched stimulants I got 29 pages of monero vendors, 50 pages of bitcoin vendors (page cap).  

  Last low of 0.001612 was like that.  Just kind of ran out of dump, and a couple weeks later, Pow!

Think about  it from the point of view of a large accumulator.  Do you want to scoop before the queue is full?  Do you want to scoop higher or lower?  You wait until there are no lower asks before you take what you can get while you can still get it.  You probe and tickle it down where you can, slap it down where you must, and when it just isn't going to go lower, and there is a good supply, you nab it.

Given 1/5 uptake before there is a GUI or usable multisig, I predict 50% adoption by end of 2017.  el rippo was right, and I was too pessimistic:  1 bn mcap in 15 months time.  BTC parity by 2021.  200x by 2024.

Only black markets matter for innovation, and only large accumulators matter for the long-term price.

[N-rG]

Hi guys,


i checked AlphaBay again and have unfortunately not so good news.

few days before i said

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

I sold my XMR stock for now.
 

And you have a short position now? 

yes, for sure.

[Azael]

Hi guys,


i checked AlphaBay again and have unfortunately not so good news.

few days before i said

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

I sold my XMR stock for now.
 

And you have a short position now? 

yes, for sure.

So the rationale is that the success of your XMR short from the point you entered it depends on if the amount of Stimulants accepting XMR decrease on Alpha?

[aminorex]

So the rationale is that the success of your XMR short from the point you entered it depends on if the amount of Stimulants accepting XMR decrease on Alpha?

I don't question the rationale, but rather the premise, the factual claim.

[N-rG]

Yes. I believe the success of XMR depends on its acceptance. Since the acceptance is decreasing and the price is falling for days, i go for short.

[Azael]

Hi guys,


i checked AlphaBay again and have unfortunately not so good news.

few days before i said

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

I sold my XMR stock for now.
 

And you have a short position now?  

yes, for sure.

So the rationale is that the success of your XMR short from the point you entered it depends on if the amount of Stimulants accepting XMR decrease on Alpha?

Yes. I believe the success of XMR depends on its acceptance. Since the acceptance is decreasing and the price is falling for days, i go for short.

I agree on the acceptance part but I think the acceptance and price will be increasing in the future despite temporary hickups. Anyway I might've been on the other side of that trade if it was below 0.0155 but good luck!

[Azael]

So the rationale is that the success of your XMR short from the point you entered it depends on if the amount of Stimulants accepting XMR decrease on Alpha?

I don't question the rationale, but rather the premise, the factual claim.

Doesn't matter much without knowing the why anyway. Sites disable payments in X if they have some issue with it that needs to be sorted out.

[dloghwak]

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

Never one to trust blindly what can easily be verified, I did my own sampling:  43 bitcoin to 8 monero, 18.6%  (Page count, psychedelics, trust levels 4 to 5, to stay under page cap).  Maybe you slipped a decimal.  

When I searched stimulants I got 29 pages of monero vendors, 50 pages of bitcoin vendors (page cap).  

  Last low of 0.001612 was like that.  Just kind of ran out of dump, and a couple weeks later, Pow!

Think about  it from the point of view of a large accumulator.  Do you want to scoop before the queue is full?  Do you want to scoop higher or lower?  You wait until there are no lower asks before you take what you can get while you can still get it.  You probe and tickle it down where you can, slap it down where you must, and when it just isn't going to go lower, and there is a good supply, you nab it.

Given 1/5 uptake before there is a GUI or usable multisig, I predict 50% adoption by end of 2017.  el rippo was right, and I was too pessimistic:  1 bn mcap in 15 months time.  BTC parity by 2021.  200x by 2024.

Only black markets matter for innovation, and only large accumulators matter for the long-term price.

Care to share a screenshot for those of us who don't have tor running?

[eid]

I checked also out Stimulants -> 23171 offers. 560 accept Monero. Its only 2,41%

today there are only 435 offers accepting Monero by 23338 offers overall. So only 1,86%

So we lost 23% acceptance.

Never one to trust blindly what can easily be verified, I did my own sampling:  43 bitcoin to 8 monero, 18.6%  (Page count, psychedelics, trust levels 4 to 5, to stay under page cap).  Maybe you slipped a decimal.  

When I searched stimulants I got 29 pages of monero vendors, 50 pages of bitcoin vendors (page cap).  

  Last low of 0.001612 was like that.  Just kind of ran out of dump, and a couple weeks later, Pow!

Think about  it from the point of view of a large accumulator.  Do you want to scoop before the queue is full?  Do you want to scoop higher or lower?  You wait until there are no lower asks before you take what you can get while you can still get it.  You probe and tickle it down where you can, slap it down where you must, and when it just isn't going to go lower, and there is a good supply, you nab it.

Given 1/5 uptake before there is a GUI or usable multisig, I predict 50% adoption by end of 2017.  el rippo was right, and I was too pessimistic:  1 bn mcap in 15 months time.  BTC parity by 2021.  200x by 2024.

Only black markets matter for innovation, and only large accumulators matter for the long-term price.

There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.


Stimulants:

Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425

= 1.82%

[eid]

Care to share a screenshot for those of us who don't have tor running?

http://imgur.com/a/T9vcD


15 sales per page.

[alphahacktivist]

yeap. 0.0145ish *sigh*

[aminorex]

[There's no need to use a page cap. The left menu shows the number of sales. You can just search for monero vendors and work out the percentage.

Stimulants:
Total sales: 23347
Monero sales: 425
= 1.82%

That's just wrong.  [Firstly, these are not sales.  These are listings.  Secondly,] you're comparing the result of a search by one process with some unknown reported number.  There's no evidence that this number is comparable, or even accurate, since it can't be mapped to actual listing.  You're comparing apples and oranges.  The page cap is imposed by the site, not by me.  To make a valid sampling you have to sample both populations the same way.  You can slice it to get under the cap (as I did with the use of trust level limits).  I don't know of any other way to sample both populations comparably.

Stimulants, level 9-10, gives 8 XMR listings and 62 BTC listings, or 13% XMR support.
Stimulants, level 7-8, gives 47 XMR listings and 103 BTC listings, or 46% XMR support.

That is a valid comparison.  Your numbers are just a units error, statistically incoherent.

The more interesting numbers would be the sales volumes.  Because if sales volume is increasing, we're golden, and it doen't matter if 13% (the lowest number in evidence) or 46% (the highest number in evidence) of the vendors are supporting XMR.'

[N-rG]

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr  

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing. He looked for the whole acceptance and the site doesnt limit to this number of pages. So 1.8% is correct. Everyone here can prove it by himself

[alphahacktivist]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/52rqb4/need_help_in_6_to_8_days/

check through all his posts, in my strongest opinion, its an xmr-usd platform.

[obit33]

really sad for xmr....i had really high expectations its still the better coin but i could imagine that alphabay will soon terminate the acceptance of xmr  

@aminorex

He did it right. Its only 1,8% acceptance. Of course you can make it looking better with different settings but the truth is that the acceptance is decreasing.

ha ha, panicking newbie...

please, sell your coins now and drive the price to 0.0139, I'll be a happy buyer!

best regards