[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kurious]

Top of pennant on xmr. Could be a nice reshort. I have  begun scaling more shorts with a sl at 0.0185, with green pl from my 193 short.

Depends on what you think of BTC.  It's the big factor in alt prices.  Normally XMR goes down on BTC rises, this time XMR has not lost $ value.

Good luck, but be careful, eh?   I am not sure you will make on shorting XMR right now

[kurious]

In other news...

BTC at 1135 and Honeypony is rising like it doesn't give a shit.

Back in the mid .018s as I type with a good green candles showing (against BTC) and nudging up towards $21 in USD terms.

Something afoot? 

Keep an eye, this is not a move I expected with BTC so bullish.

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

A big factor affecting rates is the possibility of a fork. If you have your coins lent out you won't get the second coin. Looking at BCU on bitfinex, it is down from 200 to 150, so a significant drop in the expected value of the second coin.

And more than that - the risk of a fork does NOT mean 'moon' for BTC. The risk is not over.  I would not borrow BTC right now, IMHO this is not a sustainable price with the risks out there...

[smooth]

In other news...

BTC at 1135 and Honeypony is rising like it doesn't give a shit.

Back in the mid .018s as I type with a good green candles showing (against BTC) and nudging up towards $21 in USD terms.

Something afoot? 

Keep an eye, this is not a move I expected with BTC so bullish.

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

A big factor affecting rates is the possibility of a fork. If you have your coins lent out you won't get the second coin. Looking at BCU on bitfinex, it is down from 200 to 150, so a significant drop in the expected value of the second coin.

And more than that - the risk of a fork does NOT mean 'moon' for BTC. The risk is not over.  I would not borrow BTC right now, IMHO this is not a sustainable price with the risks out there...

Sure, but you can be more willing to lend if you are holding BTC and either think the second coin won't happen or will quickly become worthless (or just very low value). The current rates of about 0.1% per day is still a quite profitable return for BTC longs. 1/2-1% per week or so.

[dEBRUYNE]

Is mymonero site working for you guys? It's hung up on a transaction now for a few hours, what gives?

It seemed a little iffy yesterday as well.


How long do these hang ups normally last? I can't send anything else right now either. My account is in essence frozen as it says unconfirmed for a few hours now. I can't even make any other transactions. 

Do transactions time out on mymonero? What is the normal wait when something is hung up?

Probably best to contact their support (support@mymonero.com).

[FOMOFish]

Top of pennant on xmr. Could be a nice reshort. I have  begun scaling more shorts with a sl at 0.0185, with green pl from my 193 short.

Depends on what you think of BTC.  It's the big factor in alt prices.  Normally XMR goes down on BTC rises, this time XMR has not lost $ value.

Good luck, but be careful, eh?  I am not sure you will make on shorting XMR right now

Even if this hits 185 and i get sl, I still make bitcoin. But so far i reshorted at 185-183 and now it is 177 again. More green, more btc for me. I think there is still room for 1250 btc bull fakeout which could mean a realization of my low 0.016 and at least low 0.017 for xmr. Who knows, long term trend line has 0.012 xmr correction, and similar harsh drops for all alts maid to 10k fct to 20 eth could drop to $30. I am short on all of them. Only alt that I think has completed a deeper retrace is ripple from 7k to 2k.

Dont get me wrong. I am a monero bag holder, maid bag holder 7k etc but they have all had brilliant runs this year and as a result have room to correct a midst a btc bull run so it seems only logical to day trade these spot holdings to make more btc.

EDIT: 175 Yes we have broken down on xmr and broken up on btc. I expect the destruction of this pennant and sub 0.017 today.

[kurious]

In other news...

BTC at 1135 and Honeypony is rising like it doesn't give a shit.

Back in the mid .018s as I type with a good green candles showing (against BTC) and nudging up towards $21 in USD terms.

Something afoot? 

Keep an eye, this is not a move I expected with BTC so bullish.

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

A big factor affecting rates is the possibility of a fork. If you have your coins lent out you won't get the second coin. Looking at BCU on bitfinex, it is down from 200 to 150, so a significant drop in the expected value of the second coin.

And more than that - the risk of a fork does NOT mean 'moon' for BTC. The risk is not over.  I would not borrow BTC right now, IMHO this is not a sustainable price with the risks out there...

Sure, but you can be more willing to lend if you are holding BTC and either think the second coin won't happen or will quickly become worthless (or just very low value). The current rates of about 0.1% per day is still a quite profitable return for BTC longs. 1/2-1% per week or so.

Lower rates implies less likelihood of a fork, since lending risks (as you said) mean not getting your (admittedly possibly worthless) 'bonus' coins and the scary damage of a fork to price.

However, a chain fork will not necessarily mean an ETH style 1+1 = >2, it will more likely see an unnerving doubt becoming prevalent over BTC. Full stop.

Markets dislike uncertainty.

Any split will mean stasis over trading - everyone will hold in their wallets and wait.   Lower rates also means demand to borrow is low, which makes  sense. 

BTC cannot climb to new ATH while this shit is still unresolved (although I do think Core will probably win).

I am happy to be overexposed to Monero right now, I hope I am not alone

[kurious]

Top of pennant on xmr. Could be a nice reshort. I have  begun scaling more shorts with a sl at 0.0185, with green pl from my 193 short.

Depends on what you think of BTC.  It's the big factor in alt prices.  Normally XMR goes down on BTC rises, this time XMR has not lost $ value.

Good luck, but be careful, eh?  I am not sure you will make on shorting XMR right now

Even if this hits 185 and i get sl, I still make bitcoin. But so far i reshorted at 185-183 and now it is 177 again. More green, more btc for me. I think there is still room for 1250 btc bull fakeout which could mean a realization of my low 0.016 and at least low 0.017 for xmr. Who knows, long term trend line has 0.012 xmr correction, and similar harsh drops for all alts maid to 10k fct to 20 eth could drop to $30. I am short on all of them. Only alt that I think has completed a deeper retrace is ripple from 7k to 2k.

Dont get me wrong. I am a monero bag holder, maid bag holder 7k etc but they have all had brilliant runs this year and as a result have room to correct a midst a btc bull run so it seems only logical to day trade these spot holdings to make more btc.

EDIT: 175 Yes we have broken down on xmr and broken up on btc. I expect the destruction of this pennant and sub 0.017 today.

You obviously are well informed enough to make your call.  Fair enough.  Personally I am happy XMR to be holding a $20 plus price.

BTC looks overpriced to me, but you bet on it if you're sure, eh?

[Hueristic]

...

Coinbase have said that their long-term goal is to add multiple coins so it's not necessarily a case of either/or.

That said, given what Lee has said about Dash, I just can't imagine how Coinbase could offer it without undermining their credibility.

...

They added ETH during the DAO and fork to ETC so what does that tell you about their credibility?

[Billy Bunter]

Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first  but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?

Coinbase have said that their long-term goal is to add multiple coins so it's not necessarily a case of either/or.

...

They added ETH during the DAO and fork to ETC so what does that tell you about their credibility?

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other.

Coinbase is likely not for Crypto Currency purists. It is more aimed at speculators who don't care about maintaining their own wallets and who want an easy way to purchase currencies without the pressure and learning curve of trading platforms like Poloniex.

I'm not that interested in their credibility insofar as their decision with regard to ETH and the DAO. I am interested in the fact that they have six million accounts and what that might do for Monero's reputation and price.

[Hueristic]

Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?

and...

Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first  but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?

WTF is there an echo in here?  LOL

Sometimes bought accounts will do thi trying to fool sig campains, check the guys posts.

I had one that was doing that to my posts that were weeks old.

[Hueristic]

Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first  but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?

Coinbase have said that their long-term goal is to add multiple coins so it's not necessarily a case of either/or.

...

They added ETH during the DAO and fork to ETC so what does that tell you about their credibility?

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other.

Coinbase is likely not for Crypto Currency purists. It is more aimed at speculators who don't care about maintaining their own wallets and who want an easy way to purchase currencies without the pressure and learning curve of trading platforms like Poloniex.

I'm not that interested in their credibility insofar as their decision with regard to ETH and the DAO. I am interested in the fact that they have six million accounts and what that might do for Monero's reputation and price.

Sorry I was responding to this

That said, given what Lee has said about Dash, I just can't imagine how Coinbase could offer it without undermining their credibility.

And apparently I did not quote the correct line so I've gone back and corrected that.

[Hueristic]

...

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

One can borrow DASH at a lending rate of approximately one third of that for XBT. Cryptocurrency on margin is a an extremely high risk business and not for the faint of heart.

You got that right, I almost got caught shorting ripple and dash but luckily I only margin 25% of my margin account so was able to ride out both bear traps and still come out on the plus side.

In other news...

BTC at 1135 and Honeypony is rising like it doesn't give a shit.

Back in the mid .018s as I type with a good green candles showing (against BTC) and nudging up towards $21 in USD terms.

Something afoot? 

Keep an eye, this is not a move I expected with BTC so bullish.

BTC lending rates dropped by half (<0.12%) so more margin longs?

A big factor affecting rates is the possibility of a fork. If you have your coins lent out you won't get the second coin. Looking at BCU on bitfinex, it is down from 200 to 150, so a significant drop in the expected value of the second coin.

NEVER point this out to a degenerate gambler!

[aminorex]

BTC mempool size has crashed since February.  Smoothed xns/day is trending down.  It seems clear that the tight hold on BTC is increasing.  Come the fork, you may have a hard time finding anyone willing to spend BTC for a couple of weeks at least.

I am increasingly convinced that this will spike XMR.  How else can you buy fentanyl on alphabay?  Opiates are the quintessence of an inelastic demand driver - just ask Stringer Bell.  Methinks I should go all-in again.

[iCEBREAKER]

Speculation:. When BTC forks everyone will be holding  their coins tightly, and transaction traffic will approach nil.  Consequently the only way to actually buy anything on, e.g., alphabay will be using XMR.   XMR valuation may double, triple, quadruple overnight.

Any market (darknet or otherwise) paying attention will suspend/freeze all BTC activity until the Happening/Forkcalypse/Battle Of The Blockchain is resolved.

That could take days or weeks or months, producing a BTC liquidity crisis and ensuing mother of all alt pumps.

Since spill-over/backup capacity for BTC is the main use case of alts, it really wouldn't even be a pump but rather a fundamental repricing event to discover how best to reallocate capital in the crypto sector in light of a black swan visiting the One True Ledger.

Coins with preexisting, independent (sorry no ShapeShit) market infrastructure/support/use, such as Monero, should do best as their current relatively low prices represent a bottleneck that must be expanded in order for previous levels of commerce to start flowing through again.

[Billy Bunter]

Guys, as a lot of the Dash people seem to sincerely believe that coinbase is gonna add them first  but I think around here we-all pretty much believe (more likely based on what Armstrong, Lee, etc have actually *said* lately, not to mention their actual POLL results) that it's going to be MONERO next up on their platform as the #3 crypto coin gonna be made available to the mass market... it's occurred to me today that maybe something ELSE may be in the works rather than just us or them being disappointed when this news finally comes.

Seems to me that IF maybe coinbase doesn't want to be seen as 'playing favorites' or engaging in any action that could be construed as 'manipulating the markets' maybe if they're seriously gonna add either Dash or XMR next, it might be that they kinda have to ADD BOTH OF THEM TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME??

Picking one or the other right now, especially in light of recent events, has many pro/con aspects to either decision and seems to me there's no clear correct choice other than don't do either of them OR -- better -- just do 'em both at once!!

So, is that crazy thinking or does anyone else here see maybe this might be how it'd have to play out...?

Coinbase have said that their long-term goal is to add multiple coins so it's not necessarily a case of either/or.

...

They added ETH during the DAO and fork to ETC so what does that tell you about their credibility?

I'm not sure what one has to do with the other.

Coinbase is likely not for Crypto Currency purists. It is more aimed at speculators who don't care about maintaining their own wallets and who want an easy way to purchase currencies without the pressure and learning curve of trading platforms like Poloniex.

I'm not that interested in their credibility insofar as their decision with regard to ETH and the DAO. I am interested in the fact that they have six million accounts and what that might do for Monero's reputation and price.

Sorry I was responding to this

That said, given what Lee has said about Dash, I just can't imagine how Coinbase could offer it without undermining their credibility.

And apparently I did not quote the correct line so I've gone back and corrected that.

Ah, I see. Well I do think there's a difference in terms of how the two situations relate to credibility. In the case of the ETH/DAO debacle, it's not as if Coinbase played any part in it. It was going to happen with or without Coinbase's input. And to repeat myself, rightly or wrongly, most people (investors/speculators) either wanted it to happen or didn't care if it did. I'm not arguing that they were right not to care, rather that Coinbase's target audience aren't the type that would.

Clearly, adding Ethereum to Coinbase didn't impact Coinbase's reputation for the great majority of its customers. Adding Dash would. Or, rather, it should. You can't add a currency to your portfolio that's been ridiculed by your Director or Engineering without risking huge criticism. And rightly so.

On the other hand, you can add Monero. And wouldn't we all want that?

[LennyCarl]

Speculation:. When BTC forks everyone will be holding  their coins tightly, and transaction traffic will approach nil.  Consequently the only way to actually buy anything on, e.g., alphabay will be using XMR.   XMR valuation may double, triple, quadruple overnight.

Any market (darknet or otherwise) paying attention will suspend/freeze all BTC activity until the Happening/Forkcalypse/Battle Of The Blockchain is resolved.

That could take days or weeks or months, producing a BTC liquidity crisis and ensuing mother of all alt pumps.

Since spill-over/backup capacity for BTC is the main use case of alts, it really wouldn't even be a pump but rather a fundamental repricing event to discover how best to reallocate capital in the crypto sector in light of a black swan visiting the One True Ledger.

Coins with preexisting, independent (sorry no ShapeShit) market infrastructure/support/use, such as Monero, should do best as their current relatively low prices represent a bottleneck that must be expanded in order for previous levels of commerce to start flowing through again.

Coinbase adding monero before the Bitcoin Forkalypse (Forkacalypse?)would be nice timing. If they do add monero, is the expectation for after the april 15 hard fork (to unclog monero's own mempool)? Well,wouldn't that be excellent timing for it all to come together in this order!

[KeyJockey]

...the Bitcoin Forkalypse (Forkacalypse?)

Hmm... fork-apocalypse, so maybe: "Forkapalypse"...?

Nice, LOL.  I think that'll catch on

[LennyCarl]

...the Bitcoin Forkalypse (Forkacalypse?)

Hmm... fork-apocalypse, so maybe: "Forkapalypse"...?

Nice, LOL.  I think that'll catch on

Yeah it doesn't exactly roll off the tongue, all throat really. But I like the double ka sounds...

[FOMOFish]

Top of pennant on xmr. Could be a nice reshort. I have  begun scaling more shorts with a sl at 0.0185, with green pl from my 193 short.

Depends on what you think of BTC.  It's the big factor in alt prices.  Normally XMR goes down on BTC rises, this time XMR has not lost $ value.

Good luck, but be careful, eh?  I am not sure you will make on shorting XMR right now

Even if this hits 185 and i get sl, I still make bitcoin. But so far i reshorted at 185-183 and now it is 177 again. More green, more btc for me. I think there is still room for 1250 btc bull fakeout which could mean a realization of my low 0.016 and at least low 0.017 for xmr. Who knows, long term trend line has 0.012 xmr correction, and similar harsh drops for all alts maid to 10k fct to 20 eth could drop to $30. I am short on all of them. Only alt that I think has completed a deeper retrace is ripple from 7k to 2k.

Dont get me wrong. I am a monero bag holder, maid bag holder 7k etc but they have all had brilliant runs this year and as a result have room to correct a midst a btc bull run so it seems only logical to day trade these spot holdings to make more btc.

EDIT: 175 Yes we have broken down on xmr and broken up on btc. I expect the destruction of this pennant and sub 0.017 today.

You obviously are well informed enough to make your call.  Fair enough.  Personally I am happy XMR to be holding a $20 plus price.

BTC looks overpriced to me, but you bet on it if you're sure, eh?

In the end I covered completely all alt shorts because like you said btc seems to be having some trouble now in this short term. I then entered into some very small margin longs on monero maid and ltc. At this point it seems 50/50 where alts or btc go.

[kurious]

BTC mempool size has crashed since February.  Smoothed xns/day is trending down.  It seems clear that the tight hold on BTC is increasing.  Come the fork, you may have a hard time finding anyone willing to spend BTC for a couple of weeks at least.

I am increasingly convinced that this will spike XMR.  How else can you buy fentanyl on alphabay?  Opiates are the quintessence of an inelastic demand driver - just ask Stringer Bell.  Methinks I should go all-in again.

You are convinced the fork is inevitable?   I think even the possibility is destabilising - but with BTC at this price, it seems to not be priced in, indicating IMO that it is not thought to be definite by the market.

I am not saying you're wrong, but I wonder how you feel it's a done deal it will happen.