[XMR] Monero Speculation

[estenity]

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

[rinus]

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

I do hope we see a bottom soon.  The charts keep on going down

[jerry0]

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

[estenity]

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

I do hope we see a bottom soon.  The charts keep on going down

other simultaneities:
-financial crisis beginning in US
-political mess in the same country

[Anon136]

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

So transaction fees were about 4 dollars or so when the price was 500. I suspect that around about a 4 dollar transaction fee is as much as the market will sustain. Bitcoin has managed to push higher but bitcoin is special. It is a powerful brand. So lets just say 4 dollars is about what someone is willing to pay in transaction fee for an altcoin and it was 4 dollars at 500 dollars. Bullet proofs will bring probably an 85% space savings. 80% on 2 output transactions but more space savings on transactions with more outputs so we need to increase it a bit above 80% to account for that. So with an 85% space savings and a 4 dollar transaction fee the price would be 6.6 times higher than 500. 500*6.6=3300.

So this is some super rough math but atleast it gives an idea of how to begin to approach this problem. Scalability is the limiting factor for cryptocurrencies right now and transaction fees are the measure of scalability (I know also centralization vs decentralization plays a role too but never the less). They are a reflection of the current progress in scaling technologies. The prices cant go higher until more and better scaling solutions are developed.

*edit*
Unless, as generalizethis points out, it starts getting valued as a tax haven type of reserve asset and not as a currency. Then people might be willing to deal with huge transaction fees. In which case the sky is the limit.

[generalizethis]

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

The market potential is in the trillions--based on the always expanding digital market for tax evasion and black markets.

Now will it capture all that market? Given its status as the best privacy coin, yes--when it comes to privacy, barring any significant price difference, people want to use the best tech as the human cost is dear to them. But that could change over time, so it would be foolish to presume that it will be the case for all time. So you buy and you watch the privacy market to see how Monero is progressing and any hedges you may want to make with interesting tech. One of the good things is that, at least as far as dark markets, privacy users are loyal--anyone who followed how long it took Monero to knock off a public blockchain can testify to that loyalty--AFAIK Bitcoin still has a lead on amount of tx on the dark market, though that's obviously shifting in Monero's favor as some of the  biggest markets add Monero.

[explorer]

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

I wouldn't expect more than that this year.  My personal bull thoughts are 1500 worst case, 10K euphoria.  If there is a raging wild fire through cryptoland, then the bull may get grilled as steaks, and who knows how it plays out.  Still optimistic though currently down 50% for 2018.  There is a lot of 2018 remaining.  As for beyond that, highest price  I'd be pretty stunned to see it over 10 000 000, ever.  The $ comparison would fail before that happens, because nobody would be using $ for anything but paying taxes in the US, maybe not even that.

[explorer]

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

I do hope we see a bottom soon.  The charts keep on going down

other simultaneities:
-financial crisis beginning in US  the world
-political mess in the same country world

[explorer]

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

So transaction fees were about 4 dollars or so when the price was 500.

That was just for lazy/ignorant/generous/impatient/urgent people.  It barely topped a dollar for anyone willing to push (literally) one or two buttons and risk (small risk) <4 minutes vs <2 to confirm. So I would multiply your findings by 4...

note:  I've been here since early 2014, and I did (guessing) more transactions in the last 6 months than the 3 prior years combined.  I paid a tick over a dollar once, and something like $60 once when I fucked up on margin and was desperate to cut every second possible from the confirmation time by guaranteeing the next block.

[madgpt]

Monero was getting some momentum all signs were great...
Then entire crypto market drops 20%+
Gotta love crypto though in all seriousness its such a fickle market

[tokeweed]

*bump*

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0

This will never happen.

Never say never, the market tends to overreact unpredictably at times.  I mean I sure don't want this to happen but I'm not gonna be denying that 'it will never happen' either.  Apathy and fear are the market's greatest enemies and that's what we are facing.

[rinus]

*bump*

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0

This will never happen.

Never say never, the market tends to overreact unpredictably at times.  I mean I sure don't want this to happen but I'm not gonna be denying that 'it will never happen' either.  Apathy and fear are the market's greatest enemies and that's what we are facing.

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

[explorer]

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

It has every time so far, and it is growing better faster than ever.  Why wouldn't it?  Even centralized non-fungible coins recover routinely from big spikes and the subsequent drops.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

No. Moreno is likely headed back to its ICO price; and may remain at sub-$20 for a while —if it survives as a cryptocurrency.

Afraid cannot suggest any viable cryptocurrency as a stable investment during 2018-2020.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/

Applying the same metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin at sub $1000 by Christmas 2018 or Easter 2019.
From late 2019 to early 2020, the second generation of cryptocurrencies ought to emerge as viable long-term investments; however this time, with stable growth, purpose fit technology, robust secure exchange platforms and real adoption —not parabolic exuberance.

Paradoxically, a volatile and rapid appreciation of a currency, is a failed currency. By definition, currencies are supposed to be recognized, accepted and stable mediums of exchange —not just another speculative boom-bust asset class.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0
 

[rinus]

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

No. Moreno is likely headed back to its ICO price; and may remain at sub-$20 for a while —if it survives as a cryptocurrency.

Afraid cannot suggest any viable cryptocurrency as a stable investment during 2018-2020.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/

Applying the same metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin at sub $1000 by Christmas 2018 or Easter 2019.
From late 2019 to early 2020, the second generation of cryptocurrencies ought to emerge as viable long-term investments; however this time, with stable growth, purpose fit technology, robust secure exchange platforms and real adoption —not parabolic exuberance.

Paradoxically, a volatile and rapid appreciation of a currency, is a failed currency. By definition, currencies are supposed to be recognized, accepted and stable mediums of exchange —not just another speculative boom-bust asset class.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0
 

Sub 20, don’t make me laugh. Could we consider this trolling ? That would mean we go up soon

[rangedriver]

I still don't get why some people are getting so worked up about CRYPTO/USD prices, particularly when it comes to speculation. At this stage of the game all that matters is XMR/BTC. If your primary objective is the long-term accumulation of USD, then you are going to lose.

Sure, if you've got present-day commitments that are inescapable then I guess you've gotta do what you've gotta do, but c'mon guys... you don't need faith or subjective delusion to realise that in general, the nature of social-political behaviour is that given time ultimately individuals gravitate toward freedom while collectives gravitate toward progressivly fairer systems, and in BOTH scenarios, legacy finance ends up ded, centralized banks end up ded, state-sponsored tokens end up ded and powerful oligarchical fuckfaces end up wounded, presumably retreating to fuck us over in some other kind of way.

So right now I'm looking at the XMR/BTC chart and like all other CRYPTO/BTC charts, it's about as exciting as the mediterranean is to surfers. Business as usual. Everything is much the same as it ever was and within acceptable ranges.

I think by now, most people in this thread have a visceral understanding that XMR/BTC will be reaching new highs towards the end of the period starting end of Feb and finishing around about mid-summer. That's all that matters. Fuck the USD. It's not to important to the current mission.

At any point in time, ever, the only speculatively bad thing that can happen to XMR is if it goes down significantly against BTC.... and even if that were to happen (it's not) then it's only going to bounce back up again. You already know this.

For everyone else, at times like this I think it's worth taking to heart the wisdom of anglo-japanese financial trader Kero Kero Bonito, particularly in her 2016 publication entitled: Trampoline.

You can listen to the full 4 minute speech here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTkHkLDy0HI

As far as I'm concerned it's potentially the most important trading advice ever given.

Peace.
 

[CryptoPH]

This is that moment when the market cleanses those that came in at the later part of the trend, who were hyped and those who thinks crypto is a get-rich-quick thing.

I will hold my purse of XMR through bull and bear.

[wodebutterfly]

Is there anyone who had ever forgotten to input the Payment ID when transferring XMR to an exchange? And how long does the exchange take to credit your XMR deposit? I transferred some from Binance to OKEX, but forget to input the ID. Half a month has passed, and problem still unsolved. 

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Is there anyone who had ever forgotten to input the Payment ID when transferring XMR to an exchange? And how long does the exchange take to credit your XMR deposit? I transferred some from Binance to OKEX, but forget to input the ID. Half a month has passed, and problem still unsolved. 

Did you notify them? The reason the PayID is important is because it tells them whose account to credit. If you don't file a ticket, you'll never get your money.

[SolarStorm]

Ok so i figured, once i start dumping, the market will magically turn around.

So i dumped only 0.01 XMR and jay it worked