Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Chessnut, could you please explain the numerotation you use, i am often lost.

Is it the one you use ?

I am not this organised. labelling charts on TV is a tedious job. You should be able to see which scale I am counting simply by the scale of the chart. Im sorry if I am confusing Ill try harder but after all its a free thread.

[madmat]

Chessnut, could you please explain the numerotation you use, i am often lost.

Is it the one you use ?

I am not this organised. labelling charts on TV is a tedious job. You should be able to see which scale I am counting simply by the scale of the chart. Im sorry if I am confusing Ill try harder but after all its a free thread.

Ok, thanks for your answer, i am confused because i am new at all this, don't worry, i will keep reading.

[apider]

Nevertheless, a _very_ interesting thread, chessnut!

[Queeq]

Ok, thanks for your answer, i am confused because i am new at all this, don't worry, i will keep reading.

I would recommend not to try to interpret particular scale of waves to correspond to timescale (e.g. Subminuette being minutes-hours), but rather interpret the relation between smaller scale and bigger scale waves (e.g. i is subwave of (i), ((a)) of 1, and so on).

[eboard10]

A, which is ((i)) on my chart, could be considered leading diagonal. Otherwise C is too long both in time and price:

One of the reasons I think C is not done is because we have not entered the territory of wave iv(III), so imo the price does have room to move. If you look at the western charts in particularly an impulsive count is very difficult to count for i/a of B/I, and the retrace of hypothetical wave A is very shallow and weak compared to wave A. I would expect a sharper downwards impulse if it were the beginning of wave V.

I can see where you are coming from though, I'm keeping an eye on it.

Yes, I agree that the whole retracement for wave IV is pretty small (lower than 0.382), however previous III is extended so it must be fine. Moreover, this supposed IV is ended around the lower degree 4.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGmWJMXO/

I would also like to add that assuming the EW rule of alternations applies, wave IV should be more protracted and complex than wave II.

[chessnut]

this price behaviour is uninspiring to say the least but retracements of wave (i) are often this deep unfortunately. We have no EW evidence supporting a breach of 2050 tonight. I will sit tight with a stop just under 2050.

[chessnut]

We have no EW evidence supporting a breach of 2050 tonight. I will sit tight with a stop just under 2050.

Suppose we breach 2050, and make a new lower low. Will this also mean that the breakout to $4xx that you predicted becomes less likely? Or will the bigger outlook stay the same in that case?

We would have no evidence that V wave has begun only because we might break new lows here, but it would leave me a bit stumped and needing of a few days worth of price action to see just what's going on here.

[chessnut]

We have been truly tested but now we have fairly strong evidence we have hit a bottom. we are at fib and channel support. very important in a flat correction. equally important we have had a terminating impulse to the down side as there must always be in a corrective wave c.

[madmat]

We have been truly tested but now we have fairly strong evidence we have hit a bottom. we are at fib and channel support. very important in a flat correction. equally important we have had a terminating impulse to the down side as there must always be in a corrective wave c.

Nice. I bought at the bottom (I hope)

[chessnut]

Nice. I bought at the bottom (I hope)

Ballsy! thats what its all about. best of luck.

[eboard10]

Looks like the 78.6 retracement is being breached. I'm thinking on closing my longs.

[chessnut]

We have a clear break out of the descending channel. Our stop loss was not hit by 6yuan! critical levels indeed!

.... we can now move our stops up to 2056 yuan.

[chessnut]

We still have no reason to close our long or be bearish. The correction has stalled and turned respecting critical EW levels and rules. Impulses do not simply occur on their own, we do not have any impulse to the downside, and alongside a lot of other strong evidence signals are pointing up from here. The larger picture supports us. a stop under local lows is great risk reward here.

[chessnut]

This large movement to the downside seems without explanation in EW terms on at least the smaller time scales. Therefore with the bigger picture as it is this is an extremely risky market to have any leveraged position right now from an EW perspective. Follow through to the downside may force initiation of a wave V count in progress.

I will wait until the market conforms to my expectations before I give any further trades.

[DieJohnny]

seems we just pulsed down to me... what does Elliott say to that?

[btcney]

This large movement to the downside seems without explanation in EW terms on at least the smaller time scales. Therefore with the bigger picture as it is this is an extremely risky market to have any leveraged position right now from an EW perspective. Follow through to the downside may force initiation of a wave V count in progress.

I will wait until the market conforms to my expectations before I give any further trades.

Good job dude lol
EW sucks hard.

[seleme]

This large movement to the downside seems without explanation in EW terms on at least the smaller time scales. Therefore with the bigger picture as it is this is an extremely risky market to have any leveraged position right now from an EW perspective. Follow through to the downside may force initiation of a wave V count in progress.

I will wait until the market conforms to my expectations before I give any further trades.

Good job dude lol
EW sucks hard.

EW sucks in matter that if you would put 20 EWers in the room, they'd have 20 different waves to show.

It doesn't suck for them as they are mostly trained and experienced traders who'll cover themselves after their count is invalidated. It's dangerous for people who are blindly or mostly blindly following their advices and are not experienced enough to run away from the trade fast.

To be honest, it's similar for any other trading method but they have that elite feeling of themselves and specially of EW though.

[chessnut]

This large movement to the downside seems without explanation in EW terms on at least the smaller time scales. Therefore with the bigger picture as it is this is an extremely risky market to have any leveraged position right now from an EW perspective. Follow through to the downside may force initiation of a wave V count in progress.

I will wait until the market conforms to my expectations before I give any further trades.

Good job dude lol
EW sucks hard.

EW sucks in matter that if you would put 20 EWers in the room, they'd have 20 different waves to show.

It doesn't suck for them as they are mostly trained and experienced traders who'll cover themselves after their count is invalidated. It's dangerous for people who are blindly or mostly blindly following their advices and are not experienced enough to run away from the trade fast.

To be honest, it's similar for any other trading method but they have that elite feeling of themselves and specially of EW though.

Wrong, There are rarely more than 3 acceptable counts at any given time and fairly often the dominant count is undeniable. when EW analysts agree on a trade that is a powerful trade.

and so what? there will always be traders who don't have clue, does that make what I share useless to them or others?

I am at the end of a lucrative winning streak here. After signalling short at 2170 (stop above 2180 ffs) I signalled long at the bottom, 2050. next morning we rally to 2140. These trades paid 5x the losses of the prior trade. Did your 'method' give these signals? did the trend, the macd or any other fallacious principle tell you that you should buy and sell at these levels?

[seleme]

There is nothing wrong of you sharing your thoughts, just do it, there is enough stuff for people to learn from this thread and if they like it, implement in their trades.

And stop being so defensive, there is no award for best analyst on the forum

[RoadTrain]

From an EW perspective, can a count be invalidated by simply dumping through an important support? So that it changes sentiment?

In other words, how does EW factor in manipulations?