Critical Levels - EW analysis

[BldSwtTrs]

So you are saying that the low of waves V doesn't have to be lower than waves III if wave III is over extended, right?

How do you define an over extended wave?

[1715351053]

1715351053

[1715351053]

1715351053

[chessnut]

So you are saying that the low of waves V doesn't have to be lower than waves III if wave III is over extended, right?

How do you define an over extended wave?

the proportion of wave III in terms of wave I is how we would determine over-extendedness. A fair proportion of wave I/III is 0.618, or 1.618 the golden ratio. The next fair proportion is 0.381 or 2.618. In this case wave III took aim at the 2.618 extension and overshot considerably. Wave III's rarely go this far and we only believe wave V is not done yet because of the reaction to lows. If it were not for that we would have to assume wave V was complete because Wave III went that far.

[apider]

All these arguments are very fascinating, but I whats the current diagnosis? I feel that it still looks bad but there may be a small bounce and we have now achieved a local minima. Not putting money on it yet.

Nice username mate.
We are awful atm
I am dreading Tuesday.

Am I missing somethng... What's happening on tuesday? 

[seleme]

All these arguments are very fascinating, but I whats the current diagnosis? I feel that it still looks bad but there may be a small bounce and we have now achieved a local minima. Not putting money on it yet.

Nice username mate.
We are awful atm
I am dreading Tuesday.

Am I missing somethng... What's happening on tuesday? 

Football, they're Liverpool fans. Dippers

[chessnut]

On the hourly and sub hourly charts the count is lower. We will likely be making fresh local lows before we meet a reaction that provides us evidence of the bigger count. 

[chessnut]

While I saw this bounce coming from the 1970 level, it's too bullish to short for probably some time. Im hearing news of a speech or something..... lets see.

[chessnut]

Same as the other day.... c wave terminated. this one is good for a short.

[chessnut]

moving stoploss to 2030 if you are short by this trade.... the fall is beginning to look corrective.

[chessnut]

This could be interesting.. a triangle is forming. if we breakout upwards that could make for some interesting developments.... although short term it does entail rangebound and a bit down.

however we could of coarse still break downwards in this situation....

[chessnut]

The downwards movement we can see here is not a continuation of the down trend. therefore I shall assum either a larger correction is taking place, or, because of the divergence in this area which is not consistent with a valid V wave count at this point other than a truncated V, Im going to assume that this could escalate into a significant medium term bottom. This is not a trade signal - yet.

[chessnut]

So after waiting for evidence to reveal the best count we have some levels we can deal with here that may offer a clear and decisive signal in the coming week.

I see no good count for a new low under 275 at this point. If we are in wave V it is likely truncated and near/at the bottom. Wave B count is still possible.

As Illustrated, hope for the continuation of any kind of hypothetical wave V is utterly extinguished passing through the illustrated trend line.

I am still cautiously counting for highs of 3000yuan + in the coming weeks/month. breaking out will boost the confidence of this count by a long way.

A turn around in this area is supported by a host of momentum indicators so this count is robust by most standards.

[mmortal03]

While I saw this bounce coming from the 1970 level, it's too bullish to short for probably some time. Im hearing news of a speech or something..... lets see.

I might as well try to short it anyway, as a gift to everyone (given my luck has tended to fail me so far this year).

[WeGotCactus]

Can you offer a good resource for learning about EW charting? I have studied many of the examples posted in this thread and it seems like a lot of subjectivity is being applied to each wave formation, and that they could be labeled differently. But perhaps I am just not experienced enough yet at EW. Any guidance would be appreciated.

[chessnut]

While I saw this bounce coming from the 1970 level, it's too bullish to short for probably some time. Im hearing news of a speech or something..... lets see.

I might as well try to short it anyway, as a gift to everyone (given my luck has tended to fail me so far this year).

This trade is well over... it was a good short term scalp but I am actually long now.

[chessnut]

Can you offer a good resource for learning about EW charting? I have studied many of the examples posted in this thread and it seems like a lot of subjectivity is being applied to each wave formation, and that they could be labeled differently. But perhaps I am just not experienced enough yet at EW. Any guidance would be appreciated.

There are certainly times when counts may be ambiguous and lead to different things but a most of the time there is no question about the validity or invalidity of a count. The rules that define validity are certainly not arbitrary, which you would learn reading about it into detail. Read up about it here, but the most detailed resources are not free.

https://encrypted.google.com/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&lpg=PA30&pg=PA41#v=onepage&q&f=false

[Alonzo Ewing]

Thanks for keeping this thread--I hope you keep going.  It's a great learning tool.

From my non-EW viewpoint, I agree--the action over the last 3 days is very encouraging.  We could be on the cusp of the nearly year-long end of the bear market.

[watuba]

Are you able to trade on margin on Okcoin?  There was an announcement about futures being disabled this week.

[fonzie]

Are you able to trade on margin on Okcoin?  There was an announcement about futures being disabled this week.

On 2014-10-31, Friday, OKCoin.com Futures trading will be temporarily halted from 16:00-16:30(UTC +8). During this time no transfers into, or out of, futures accounts will be allowed.

[watuba]

Oh I see now it's a half hour window.  Sorry.

[karol]

While I saw this bounce coming from the 1970 level, it's too bullish to short for probably some time. Im hearing news of a speech or something..... lets see.

I might as well try to short it anyway, as a gift to everyone (given my luck has tended to fail me so far this year).

This trade is well over... it was a good short term scalp but I am actually long now.

Hi how are You set up yout stop loses, take profit and in which price did You buy?
What do You think about current situation - do You consider market depth in Your assumptions, becouse bid side on stamp seems to be powerfull