Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

This is potential iii species wave, meaning it could go real far real quickly. cannot be certain of this. One thing I know is that if this is wave iii then wave iv will be deep because wave ii was very shallow. In other words, you might get a fun surprise if you chase it up to 2200-2300 yuan!

[Carra23]

We have made a significant breakthrough that is confirmation of truncated wave V or terminal wave B as expected. This means I am expecting a relentless rally to at least 3000yuan.

Bold prediction. Wishing it would come true

I think we should expect this. a 0.618 retrace would be an epic buy opportunity.

Any timescale for this?

the rally to 3000yuan could take a couple of weeks........ the 0.618 correcton could take 12-24 hours though cant be sure it is under way yet.

It looks like there will not be that 0.618 correction then.

Do you keep into consideration effects like weekend price lowerings when counting the waves?

[SmoothCurves]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

[prophetx]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

nice rainbows...

[chessnut]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels.

[windjc]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels.

Its also possible that we are in a IV and are about 30-40% of the way through a triangle. And that this C everyone is looking for will never happen. We may have established local lows (315) before we enter V, and we might not have yet established a lower high, but IV doesn't have to be an ABC.

[chessnut]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels.

Its also possible that we are in a IV and are about 30-40% of the way through a triangle. And that this C everyone is looking for will never happen. We may have established local lows (315) before we enter V, and we might not have yet established a lower high, but IV doesn't have to be an ABC.

Possible but unlikely as long as wave iv(III) is much higher up. It is a strong guideline that wave IV will reside in wave iv(III).

Even if we are in a triangle we are in early days of wave c and have a fair bit higher to go.

[watuba]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels.

Its also possible that we are in a IV and are about 30-40% of the way through a triangle. And that this C everyone is looking for will never happen. We may have established local lows (315) before we enter V, and we might not have yet established a lower high, but IV doesn't have to be an ABC.

Would you post a graph of this?

[chessnut]

Long term view: Fantasyland https://www.tradingview.com/v/eW4PGnUW/

While it is quite possible that we have had wave V complete and we may be on our way to new ath I have to revoke what I said about that breaking through 2500 yuan entails this. It is also very possible we are still in wave B and that we still have to test new lows or close after 3000 yuan. The test for this is pretty difficiult and depends on higher levels.

Its also possible that we are in a IV and are about 30-40% of the way through a triangle. And that this C everyone is looking for will never happen. We may have established local lows (315) before we enter V, and we might not have yet established a lower high, but IV doesn't have to be an ABC.

Would you post a graph of this?

I am not going to call this an option for this thread because at the moment a case where V is not truncated is not easily allowed, especially in this case where wave V would go deep, and we have a strong guideline that we need to visit wave iv(III) even in a bearish case.

[watuba]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

[chessnut]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

Np!

Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest.  All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here.
This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

Np!

Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest.  All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here.
This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/

That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL 

Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle.
Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275.

[chessnut]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

Np!

Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest.  All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here.
This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/

That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL  

Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle.
Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275.

Interesting stuff Ryan. what do you think is going on then? (if you dont mind telling =P) I would be interested on your opinion on truncated V complete.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

Np!

Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest.  All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here.
This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/

That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL  

Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle.
Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275.

Interesting stuff Ryan. what do you think is going on then? (if you dont mind telling =P) I would be interested on your opinion on truncated V complete.

This is your thread, so I'm not going to bore everyone with my charts.
I do not think V was truncated. Not yet anyway. II was a simple ABC correction, so IV will likely be complex (✔), long (✔) and sideways (looking that way). IV is also typically longer than II and will also be proportional to the time to complete III. Since III was quite a long wave (in both price and duration) IV will go for a month or better since the start. If it is a C we are looking at right now, expect another week or more before completion. If that triangle were to happen, December and quite possibly after New Year would be expected. IMO, This early part of C doesn't have impulsive properties except in the later stages of this rise, so as of right now, I do not believe the bottom is in, and that triangle scenario is quite valid in my mind.

Take a look at this count. We have retraced to acceptable Fibo levels and into the area of the 4th of a lesser degree (even though this isn't the widely agreed upon count, but it is still valid)


Now to address that "yet" part... As you said, since III was extended so far (2.618x wave-I), a truncated V is a definite possibility, but I won't speculate on that part yet. I want to first see what happens in this 4th.

[chessnut]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

Np!

Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest.  All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here.
This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/

That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL  

Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle.
Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275.

Interesting stuff Ryan. what do you think is going on then? (if you dont mind telling =P) I would be interested on your opinion on truncated V complete.

This is your thread, so I'm not going to bore everyone with my charts.
I do not think V was truncated. Not yet anyway. II was a simple ABC correction, so IV will likely be complex (✔), long (✔) and sideways (looking that way). IV is also typically longer than II and will also be proportional to the time to complete III. Since III was quite a long wave (in both price and duration) IV will go for a month or better since the start. If it is a C we are looking at right now, expect another week or more before completion. If that triangle were to happen, December and quite possibly after New Year would be expected. IMO, This early part of C doesn't have impulsive properties except in the later stages of this rise, so as of right now, I do not believe the bottom is in, and that triangle scenario is quite valid in my mind.

Take a look at this count. We have retraced to acceptable Fibo levels and into the area of the 4th of a lesser degree (even though this isn't the widely agreed upon count, but it is still valid)


Now to address that "yet" part... As you said, since III was extended so far (2.618x wave-I), a truncated V is a definite possibility, but I won't speculate on that part yet. I want to first see what happens in this 4th.

Yeah so our wave III counts are different. I think the wave iv there wave (iv) of v of III, not only because it is quite a lot smaller than the alternative but also because volume suggests wave iii of II came at the 2700 level. and wave III is something like 2.8-2.9x wave I. Really Im surprised that we got so close to 300 again that I think the last wave could be wave truncated V. Counting on the bigger picture there is nothing significant to invalidate it.

[chessnut]

If you are in a comfortable long position, why worry there is more upside to come in almost any foreseeable ew situation here. However, reading the current price action it seems like we are due for a correction. Best not to short but we might have a great buy opportunity approaching.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Thanks, that's super helpful for understanding what you guys are talking about.  Graphs really do the talking!

Np!

Here is a nice chart by analyst DanV of a situation consistent with the interpretation on this thread. DanV tends to find the most detailed and valid outcomes to situations, while sometimes not the simplest.  All of the EW analysts are calling for at least a medium term bottom here.
This situation would be easy to identify if it unfolds.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7ssFMZmi/

That chart is invalid before he even posted it. LOL  

Y Absolutely, unequivocally MUST be equal to, or longer than X unless Y is a triangle.
Not to mention X must be shorter than W which already invalidated this count as of $338 on the way down to $275.

Interesting stuff Ryan. what do you think is going on then? (if you dont mind telling =P) I would be interested on your opinion on truncated V complete.

This is your thread, so I'm not going to bore everyone with my charts.
I do not think V was truncated. Not yet anyway. II was a simple ABC correction, so IV will likely be complex (✔), long (✔) and sideways (looking that way). IV is also typically longer than II and will also be proportional to the time to complete III. Since III was quite a long wave (in both price and duration) IV will go for a month or better since the start. If it is a C we are looking at right now, expect another week or more before completion. If that triangle were to happen, December and quite possibly after New Year would be expected. IMO, This early part of C doesn't have impulsive properties except in the later stages of this rise, so as of right now, I do not believe the bottom is in, and that triangle scenario is quite valid in my mind.

Take a look at this count. We have retraced to acceptable Fibo levels and into the area of the 4th of a lesser degree (even though this isn't the widely agreed upon count, but it is still valid)
image snipped

Now to address that "yet" part... As you said, since III was extended so far (2.618x wave-I), a truncated V is a definite possibility, but I won't speculate on that part yet. I want to first see what happens in this 4th.

Yeah so our wave III counts are different. I think the wave iv there wave (iv) of v of III, not only because it is quite a lot smaller than the alternative but also because volume suggests wave iii of II came at the 2700 level. and wave III is something like 2.8-2.9x wave I. Really Im surprised that we got so close to 300 again that I think the last wave could be wave truncated V. Counting on the bigger picture there is nothing significant to invalidate it.

Actually, that isn't my larger count either. I only posted it to show that a 4 of lesser may have been hit. Regardless, the rest of my comment stands and as a guide line, it's what I look for, but I will adapt to changing market conditions and GTFO if it's not going to get there.

Last chart, I promise!
Stamp hit a near perfect 261.8% extension. Not sure if the Chinese got over zealous about the selling or what....

[karol]

Hi Guys How You eveluate end of correction move? Are You using timescales, specyfic indicators or only lows and highs in smaller timescale?

[chessnut]

Hi Guys How You eveluate end of correction move? Are You using timescales, specyfic indicators or only lows and highs in smaller timescale?

There are three major ways to pick turning points with EW, thats using price action at levels, using breakout/invalidation/validation level, or trendline breakouts.

Ideally we have a clear count/price action and can pick the bottom exactly, but thats not always the case. Sometimes we have to summarise all possible sub counts and condense all of them into one invalidation level that breaks them all. In either case we dont have enough evidence for either yet. Otherwise we can use counter trendline breakout for a sure confirmation everytime but this one is late. Ideally we would like clear price action and then broken levels to pick a bottom.

So really I dont know where or when the bottom is gonna be, but Ill probably see when we get there. he only guideline I can use it to expect a fair retrace of 0.618 or 0.5.

[Carra23]

All I get from the last discussions is that 2xx is still possible in the longer term. Thats good news to me

So really I dont know where or when the bottom is gonna be, but Ill probably see when we get there. he only guideline I can use it to expect a fair retrace of 0.618 or 0.5.

Sorry if I missed it, 0.618 or 0.5 with respect to which figure?