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Author Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.  (Read 68310 times)
hgmichna
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July 07, 2012, 09:48:54 AM
 #161

Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two. Grin
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RoloTonyBrownTown
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July 07, 2012, 09:51:25 AM
 #162

Correction: That's because he let Vandroiy manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. Now that he knows he overstepped and can be right or wrong about the stability of his "business" and quite possibly lose, he's starting to wriggle on the line. First, he claimed he was giving to charity, when that was one of the mechanisms Vandroiy used to goad him into the bet. Then he acted buddy-buddy with Vandroiy as if this were a gentlemen's bet, when HE IS BETTING WITH AN ADVERSARY (you know, "more like guidelines") who libeled him all over the place in an effort to end his Ponzi "business". Now he's claiming the community is broken because, you know, this stuff can happen.

While I won't say Vandroiy played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull. Pirate saw red and charged right at the cape. Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side. It remains to be seen if Vandroiy will get an ear or two. Grin

Good luck with that.

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July 07, 2012, 09:59:17 AM
 #163

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

Fair enough, my mistake.

Since you can double your money in 12 weeks at 6% per week returns, why would a pro pirate investor invest in this for a year?

The upside for pro pirates is not high enough. You need as many pro pirate purchasers as default pirate purchasers for this to really take off.

That was a main consideration - to see if both investors and naysayers would swallow both the risk and the low return in order to "support their side", and also to gauge public opinion by the volume and price of trade in the paired bonds.

It's a moot point now though, there's 1:1 bet between Pirate and Vandroiy.


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July 07, 2012, 11:05:43 AM
 #164

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

You're missing that, unlike some people, nanotube has a brain. Smiley

To keep his "trust", which is apparently not zero, Pirateat40 would want to leave a trace to the new operation. It's risky, expensive to do, and if he leaks anything, nanotube will tell him to bugger off.

Edit: remember that the Ponzi abuses human misunderstanding of the exponential function's main property (its derivative being itself) and the implications this has for the expected time-frame people think they can play it. This is why they need months of head-start to push the irrelevant number of "past days run" up!


That's because he let pirate manipulate him into a put-up-or-shut-up. (...)

While I won't say pirate played this like a matador, he did pick and goad the right bull.  Vandroiy saw red and charged right at the cape.  Who knows when the bull will die, but the odds are very much not on its side.  It remains to be seen if pirate will get an ear or two.  Grin

If this is true, he didn't get me to sign as fast as he could have, by far. For the record, about three hours after we knew the bet's terms were serious, the decision was made. Everything else was just a nonsensical show in the hope to minimize the moves of Pirateat40 which would allow to evade and still blame it on me successfully, from the perspective of people who have no clue. Most of the time taken was for the shutdown-reopen scenario that plays little role were he legitimate, and remember it was not Pirateat40 who gave in on it.

To be precise, it was a double-bluff: I showed fear of a potential weakness of me (the shutdown-reopen scenario), and then saw him bluff on this one. In the now remote chance he didn't... bear with me, it's rock-paper-scissors at that point, it's trivial to give me a tail risk on interpreting stances wrongly.

From Pirateat40's viewpoint, I think his move is a close call. The exp growth should overpower any "surface" effects in three to five weeks. He's the psychology master, let's see whether he was right. If he was, well, he profited, and that's all that counts for someone who knows no friends and enemies.

Why am I still explaining part of my thinking to people who are completely oblivious to what is going on here? Huh Pirateat40 doesn't even try to hide it, people just read what they want to read.

Really why do you guys think I took the bet? What does all this even translate to, emotional outburst? Calling someone stupid without a clue what he was thinking is dangerous. I used a vote of five mathematically well-educated people whether we have >50% chance here. The outcome was 5:0. We reduced our initial amount suggestion because we expected a chance Pirateat40 might default instead of accepting if we place too much.

My indicators start to tend to "Pirateat40 was right". Just to clarify it endlessly, this has nothing to do with who wins the bet. I... just can't feel sorry for you guys anymore. It's like looking at these cows that stay on the tracks when they run from trains. Disturbing, but it's just hard to feel with them.



TL;DR: If you are under the impression we are simply betting about Pirateat40's business being a Ponzi, and that we just sucked at staying focused on the point, you need a serious reality check. It took almost two days! On a 1:1 bet we're both certain on? Think again, we're not that inefficient.
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July 07, 2012, 11:15:54 AM
 #165


Really why do you guys think I took the bet?

Mostly just because you're mental.

This is among the stupidest things I've seen on this forum,  and that is really, REALLY saying something.

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July 07, 2012, 01:11:15 PM
 #166


Really why do you guys think I took the bet?

Mostly just because you're mental.

This is among the stupidest things I've seen on this forum,  and that is really, REALLY saying something.

Just quoting this because I'm mental. Smiley
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July 07, 2012, 04:19:19 PM
 #167

The ending of the scene is telling.

+1
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July 07, 2012, 04:49:37 PM
 #168

Quote from: Pirate himself really I heard it from a friend who knows the sister of the first mate closely.
I spent the last year building up an immunity to ponzi accusations.

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July 07, 2012, 04:58:55 PM
 #169

Quote from: Pirate himself really I heard it from a friend who knows the sister of the first mate closely.
I spent the last year building up an immunity to ponzi accusations.
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July 07, 2012, 05:45:04 PM
 #170

This scene from Princess Bride can somewhat be duplicated in real life by taking activated charcoal with some olive oil every day. It's recommended to take it at a different time than you take your regular supplements, like before your noon meal.

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July 07, 2012, 06:07:31 PM
 #171

This scene from Princess Bride can somewhat be duplicated in real life by taking activated charcoal with some olive oil every day. It's recommended to take it at a different time than you take your regular supplements, like before your noon meal.
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July 07, 2012, 06:28:00 PM
 #172

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

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July 07, 2012, 06:33:53 PM
 #173

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

So long as not everyone switches at exactly the same time, the sum of the two schemes will have enough to allow people to temporarily withdraw from one and deposit into the other.

Perhaps there could be a bonus if you withdraw directly from the old fund into the new one - that way no real funds are needed at all.

But as pirate said:

Quote
Changing the name and moving funds is one thing.  Returning all the coins is another.

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July 07, 2012, 08:49:05 PM
 #174

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

There will be a default when almost everyone switches. Because they will expect their principal + gains, but there are no gains (at least, not enough for everybody).

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

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July 07, 2012, 08:58:05 PM
 #175

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

and if you're an investor, nothing is proof that it is a ponzi. The difference between the transparent market returns of bitcoin is that when the market corrects, we see some price decreases. When the market corrects in pirate's ponzi.. *poof*. The timing of when you withdraw is life-or-death. hope its not too late to take your gains *and* save your principal!

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July 07, 2012, 09:31:49 PM
 #176

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

But...Cockblockham's razor!  Plus, video game scams!

Are you just blowing smoke because you want a few more weeks gains and the chance to pull out before everyone else, or are you really that dumb?

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July 07, 2012, 09:52:06 PM
 #177

But...Cockblockham's razor!  Plus, video game scams!

Quoting that too because I'm mental. Huh (No, seriously, you sound like you dislike Occam's Razor, and that's usually a warning sign.)

Have you ever played a persistent-world MMO, or talked with people who play them? I guess all the Everquest clones made everyone forget. People get really really serious about them, they're no doubt useful to model real-world scenarios. This might be the one best source to analyze how a modern, internet-based Ponzi scheme works. Don't just throw that into the bin.
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July 07, 2012, 10:10:32 PM
 #178

Vandroiy's idea about this is that pirate might have some huge stash of money somewhere, or a loan, with which he will be able to temporarily fund everything, so it wouldn't be proof that it's not a ponzi.
Of course, if you wear a tinfoil hat, nothing is proof that it's not a ponzi Wink

But...Cockblockham's razor!  Plus, video game scams!

Are you just blowing smoke because you want a few more weeks gains and the chance to pull out before everyone else, or are you really that dumb?

Ah bully.   If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started.   Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Roll Eyes

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July 07, 2012, 11:00:51 PM
 #179

Ah bully.   If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started.   Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Us all? You were in for 8 months?

As far as I can tell, the vast majority of people/funds are not in for very long yet. If this weren't the case, I could hardly make Ponzi accusations. These only make sense if the influx of new people remains mostly above interest; together with the May hype I would suspect that a lot of people haven't even passed the ten-week mark.

I wonder after how many weeks the typical user makes a break-even withdrawal.
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July 07, 2012, 11:03:35 PM
 #180

Ah bully.   If only you were around to given this type of golden advice when all this started.   Your words of wisdom could have saved us all from 8 months of horrible profit.

Us all? You were in for 8 months?

As far as I can tell, the vast majority of people/funds are not in for very long yet. If this weren't the case, I could hardly make Ponzi accusations. These only make sense if the influx of new people remains mostly above interest; together with the May hype I would suspect that a lot of people haven't even passed the ten-week mark.

I wonder after how many weeks the typical user makes a break-even withdrawal.

Profiting since December myself.

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