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Author Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.  (Read 68315 times)
Maged
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July 06, 2012, 11:32:06 PM
 #141

doesn't this open a blackmail opportunity against pirate?

i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused.  and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.

how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?

or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.
The blockchain analysts already have all of the deposit and withdrawal addresses. This would be trivial to disprove, regardless of what nanotube is given.

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organofcorti
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July 06, 2012, 11:35:07 PM
 #142

This is a very weird development because taking this bet means Pirate is either:

1. Acting irrational
2. Running a Ponzi

Say Pirate is not running a Ponzi scheme (the premise), then why would he lock up 5k BTC in an attempt to double it in 15 months while he could double it much faster by using it in his own operation?

Care to explain Pirate? Are you (acting) irrational? Wink

or

3.  5k is chump change for him and he's more than willing to put that out there in an effort to silence the trolls.   I'd do exactly the same.


Yes, 3. is pretty reasonable. I'd do exactly the same if I was running a Ponzi, too. Of course if he isn't running a Ponzi, he just bought a low yield but very safe interest bearing deposit. He wins either way.

err imo 3==1

No, 3!=1. It's actually the only rational thing for Pirate to do in either case.


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Vandroiy
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July 07, 2012, 12:03:25 AM
 #143

See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.
fatigue
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July 07, 2012, 12:08:21 AM
 #144

See,  the thing is, you're not donating to charity as you claim to be if you lose, Pirate is. Your money will be going to a charity, yes, but not by your choice, by his. Don't assume credit for that which you have not done.

Missed this before.

Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another! Smiley
pirateat40
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July 07, 2012, 12:20:10 AM
 #145


Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,


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July 07, 2012, 12:45:18 AM
 #146

I wasnt trying to put the emphasis on the point that he should be taking the credit, but rather that you shouldnt.

Anyways, ill let it just be and by October of next year we will see one way or another! Smiley

I honestly think it must be earlier.

But yes, that would really be best. Imagine someone talked to you with the assumption the Earth is flat while going on a trip to space. What'll you say if it becomes a flamewar? I opt for "I will apologize if it's wrong, but can't you just wait and see for yourself?" Once you've seen it, that's just it.

A good part of the flamewar stems from people being over-aggressive in discussions and wrong. One of the two is okay, but if you ever do both, it's really necessary to write an apology. Again, I promise I will if I should I be wrong -- this does not concern the bet, but the statement that we're faced with a HYIP Ponzi.

After all of this is over, I'd like it if we gather the people involved and sort this out. Because if all of this this is what it clearly looks like to me, this place is pretty defunct as a community. And by that I mean worse than most 4chan boards.

In fact, I'm off to visit some bronies. They're the same weird nerd crew, just not intent of working against each other at all times, even for mutual damage. Have all fun pushing the scam larger, and take pride if you manage to say I was paid out of it or got me loss-butthurt, fuck if I care. E-Positive, Kelly said yes, just be the machine and even if you lose, silently analyze the mistake for the next $$$ or BTCBTCBTC, for money is the measure of all in life.



Pirate will default earlier or later even if he wins the bet, in the follow-up Ponzi or whatever, and then he'll no longer be there to take the credit, because he really never owned any of the money.  This stuff will hardly work in retrospect.

Just chill and wait. Or have the pride to apologize when it happens. I can take the hate for a while longer, but if nobody apologizes when the default comes, be it the follow-up, the hack, the magic mushroom, you'll have really converted me to Pirateat40's side. It's just ridiculous how I try to help people in a situation that should look objectively dangerous and get nothing but shit for it.

So yea, board is yours until Pirateat40 tries to trick the bet. The flamewar is going defensive mode because I don't want bet-accusations or shit. I'll still say my opinion though, feel free to ignore me.

This kind of talk is the very reason I chose you.

Enjoy,

Thanks, Pirateat40. I wonder why they thought I'd take the bet. You, at least, are honest with yourself.
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July 07, 2012, 02:31:24 AM
 #147

Vandroiy.... if you want to give to charity, i really could use help on my rent.  It really makes me feel like an ant with that amounts of bitcoins you guys hold Sad
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July 07, 2012, 03:13:30 AM
 #148

Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.

Stephen Gornick
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July 07, 2012, 03:51:01 AM
 #149

Has anyone ever heard of Intrade.com?  Would be interesting to see "pirateat40 defaults before end of 2012" on there.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market, and that's currently the bet statement with the largest wager, by a factor of 2:1 over the next largest:
 - http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=433

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July 07, 2012, 06:45:19 AM
 #150

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This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!


Its less than doubling, because the deposit would be lost in a default. But there is a profit, which comes from exploiting the market inefficiency which is pirateat40 lenders' mistaken beliefs of continued returns (its their 5k btc he would win). In an efficient market, insurance on deposits would cost the interest earned, exactly.

But while Vandroiy is getting just a sliver, pirate gets the pie.

I think the publicity of this bet will inspire confidence, accelerating growth and therefore the inevitable endgame, default. Its in both parties' best interest (both exploiting the same inefficiency).

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July 07, 2012, 07:58:03 AM
 #151

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

ribuck
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July 07, 2012, 08:00:24 AM
 #152

I think it's funny how Vandroiy spent so much energy trying to save people from making mistakes with BS&T and their money, yet was resistant to others trying to save him from making mistakes with BS&T and his money.

There's a Bitcoin-powered predictions market...
Unfortunately it's not really a predictions market, because you can't trade bets. A real predictions market for BS&T default would be awesome!
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July 07, 2012, 08:48:58 AM
 #153

 Shocked

hgmichna
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July 07, 2012, 08:56:30 AM
 #154

This is win win for Pirate.   Even if he is running a scam, all he has to do is drag it out until November 2013 and hey presto.    A really stupid bet to make on Vandroiy's part, but oh well.   A fool and his money etc etc.

He can't drag it out that long. If he keeps the interest rate high, his money will be finished through payouts long before that. If he lowers the interest rate, enough "investors" will recall their money, so he would quickly run out of money too.

Perhaps he's a millionaire, and he can afford to lose a large amount of money, merely to bolster his ego and inflate his reputation. In that case Vandroiy would indeed lose, Pirate would start a new Ponzi scheme, using his now improved reputation, and would rip off even more unsuspecting "investors".

As to "stupid bet", I'd say, no risk—no fun.
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July 07, 2012, 08:59:49 AM
 #155

All you're missing from that post is an "IMO" Smiley

At least you don't have any money to lose in all this,  so more power to you for being smart enough not to make crazy bets with seemingly rich, mysterious strangers on the Internet Cheesy

hgmichna
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July 07, 2012, 09:00:15 AM
 #156

There is a winner: nanotube. He's already banking 100 BTC Grin

Sometimes it pays to have earned trust.
hgmichna
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July 07, 2012, 09:01:05 AM
 #157

But he can win if he has the funds to shut down and pay out!

I don't think he needs the funds to shut down.  All he needs to do is say that the interest in the current scheme is dropping to 1% per week, but that a new scheme is opening which pays 4%/7%, and let people switch to the new scheme if they want to.  Almost everyone will switch, then he can afford to force-withdraw the rest.

Then the bet is won, and the scheme carries on, just with a new name.

Or am I missing something?

If Pirate did that, he would have to pay out first, which he probably cannot. If instead he switched accounts into a new scheme directly, then that would be considered a continuation of the old scheme, and the bet would cover that too.

If he paid out piecemeal and thus moved people over one by one, that would be considered a trick, and the new scheme would again be considered a continuation of the old one and covered by the bet.

At least that is how I would see it. We could ask the escrow holder. The bet contract contains a clause stating that, if conditions move outside the explicit bet conditions, nanotube is free to decide how to disburse the money.

Perhaps we should better wait and see what happens, rather than discuss the crazier hypothetical outcomes. Perhaps Pirate reckons he can make up for the 5,000 BTC by attracting another "investor" or two on the strength of his publicized bet, and has planned to grab and run before DEF CON anyway. That is the outcome I currently consider most likely. The second-most likely outcome I consider that he somehow manages to drag on for a longer time, but certainly not until October 2013. In that case he would need to pull a trick for his announced DEF CON appearance.
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July 07, 2012, 09:29:55 AM
 #158

Quote
110*0.06 *52 = 343.2

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/
organofcorti
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July 07, 2012, 09:36:49 AM
 #159

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110*0.06 *52 = 343.2

The correct math for this results in 2276.7, NOT 343.2.

You do not seem qualified to run bonds like this :/

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

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July 07, 2012, 09:46:16 AM
 #160

You do not seem qualified to comment on bonds like this. The math is correct if coins are not reinvested. Please read the OP.

Fair enough, my mistake.

Since you can double your money in 12 weeks at 6% per week returns, why would a pro pirate investor invest in this for a year?

The upside for pro pirates is not high enough. You need as many pro pirate purchasers as default pirate purchasers for this to really take off.
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