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Author Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.  (Read 68297 times)
Jan
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July 10, 2012, 04:15:49 AM
 #261

Sorry, I didn't get much sense out of your reply.
Anyway, I don't know where you live, but visiting Denmark on the way to Dubai is for most people not exactly on the route.
(BTW: Denmark is not exactly a continent.)

I live in San Francisco, on the western coast of the USA.  København is "on the way" to Dubai and India if you have to hit all three in a week. ;>

And as I understand it, the Euro is a currency that covers more than Denmark.

I apologize for being confusing.

Ahh... I am closer to you than you think. Mountain View is just south of SF  Wink
We do not have the Euro in Denmark, but we are part of the EU. Slightly confusing. The Danish currency has however been locked to the Euro for years, and before that to the German Mark. So we have all the trouble of not having the Euro, while none of the benefits.
OK, back on topic.

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imsaguy
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July 10, 2012, 04:22:49 AM
 #262

Ahh... I am closer to you than you think. Mountain View is just south of SF  Wink
We do not have the Euro in Denmark, but we are part of the EU. Slightly confusing. The Danish currency has however been locked to the Euro for years, and before that to the German Mark. So we have all the trouble of not having the Euro, while none of the benefits.
OK, back on topic.

Having the Euro is a benefit?   Roll Eyes

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July 10, 2012, 04:40:50 AM
 #263

They should withdraw if they see their own deposits slowing.

See, now you're making assumptions.  You're telling people what to do as if it were a ponzi but you've not actually established it is one. 

There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?

That's a pretty comprehensive list, I think you covered all the bases.

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July 10, 2012, 05:08:33 AM
 #264

The wall isn't hit until the withdraws start. If the biggest investors aren't compounding, that means there's even less in there since they've been continually pulling their interest. Now its just about who's the first to pull their principal.
No derp.  Let me explain it for you.. the largest accounts are taking interest payments, which means the little accounts would have to be depositing like crazy in order to pay for the large accounts.  If the little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't going to be the little accounts anymore, which means they really AREN'T depositing enough which means pirate is finding the funds elsewhere... like profits, not ponzi.  You idiots think the 7%ers are blind, but damn, you guys are failing basic logic now.

Or, the most likely explanation, is that the rate of creation of new accounts is increasing over time at a rate sufficient to cover interest payments (like most Ponzi schemes, until they collapse).

But debating all this is pointless, as pirateat40 divulges no information whatsoever. He does not even publish basic financial information, such as the total amount invested in BTCS&T, or deposits/withdrawals per week, which he could do without revealing his "secret business plan" (but he can't because revealing his books would expose the fraud...)
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July 10, 2012, 05:21:54 AM
 #265

reeses, honest question: if I tell you I have a business plan that I want to keep secret, but that I am a trusted forum member since Dec 2010 and have a good rating on btc-otc (both true), and that my business will return 7% per week, would you invest in me? If not, why?
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July 10, 2012, 05:32:10 AM
 #266


But debating all this is pointless, as pirateat40 divulges no information whatsoever.

False.


Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%. 

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July 10, 2012, 05:33:04 AM
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There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?

That's a pretty comprehensive list, I think you covered all the bases.

Ok, now that we established the reasons you think its a ponzi, it is much simpler to talk about.  Saying 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' doesn't make it one and its hard to rebut.


Now please explain how those items make pirate a ponzi. Don't pull in other stuff, use those items.  You said it was a comprehensive list.

Right off the bat, I see items 1,2, and 5 as being patently false and not ponzi behavior, which leaves only 3 and 4, both of which need citation/documentation.

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July 10, 2012, 05:53:57 AM
 #268

hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.

Why should he hedge a bet that he'll win anyway?
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July 10, 2012, 06:02:31 AM
 #269

Arghhh.... Don't ruin this thread with all this spam. I was actually enjoying the show with all them bets and everything until it turned into insult on insult.

Anyone mind if I change the thread name to the "Let's insult each other"?

I propose an entirely new thread dedicated to insulting each other.

Done. Please move insulting posts to:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92501.msg1020413#msg1020413


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July 10, 2012, 06:43:07 AM
 #270

Charles Ponzi, in 1920, was in a different situation, compared to an anonymous bitcoin environment. He ran his scheme to the very end, went bankrupt and into jail, because he could not run away and disappear. He served drinks to his "customers", who were staging a bank run and gathering at his door, just to extend his time of fame by one more minute.

But now let's look at the personality of a (still hypothetical) Ponzi scheme operator. (I'll call him "he" for simplicity.)

We know some of his personality traits pretty well. He lacks law abidingness. He is extremely greedy. He must be an excellent liar. He must be thoroughly anti-social. He must be somewhat intelligent. (If he were highly intelligent, he probably would not have to resort to crime to make a good living.) In short, he is a low-life form you don't really want to share the same planet with.

Now let us look at how a Ponzi scheme ends. At first thought, one would think that it ends when interest exceeds new deposits, but it is not so. In fact, forget about interest. Think about the actual heap of money the Ponzi scheme operator has collected.

He will continue running the scheme as long as that heap grows. But, of course, growth will sooner or later stagnate and make way for some random sequence of growth and shrink phases, as "investors" withdraw some or all of their gain.

That is the time when an intelligent Ponzi operator will shut down and run with the money. However, greed may get in his way. He will hope to rake in a million of dollars, if he could just bridge this problem period and convince more newcomers to part with their money.

He will do anything to make that happen. He will keep promising totally unsustainable yields, he will accept any new "investment", no matter what, he will try various kinds of publicity stunts, even bets he is sure to lose.

However, at some point even the stupidest "investor" will realize that, assuming that at some time a Ponzi scheme amassed, say, BTC100,000, at 7% per week there would be BTC10million just 1.3 years later. BTC10m? Where would these  come from?

So sooner or later the "investors" will attempt to withdraw. Some will do that anyway, because they want to buy a new car or a new house. The early "investors" should have amassed a neat stash after a couple of months, many times more than their original "investment", so the tendency to withdraw grows by the day.

Needless to say, the amount of money actually available in a Ponzi scheme is tiny, compared with the amount the scheme owes, so even a trickle of payouts will quickly make its operator very nervous.

Sooner, rather than later, the Ponzi scheme operator will realize that the millions of dollars he hoped to rake in are unattainable, and he'd better be content with what he has, so he will disappear. Perhaps he will make some moves before that, designed to stall and confuse the "investors". He might state that he sold or gave away his business, he might pretend he got sick or died, he might do confusing deals with sub-contractors, he might invent maneuvers I cannot even think of. But ultimately he will cease to pay up, and that will be the end.

Now let's look at the currently ongoing Ponzi scheme. After the discussion here, new "investors", even the most gullible ones, may have become a bit weary, so we may currently experience a phase of stalling new "investments". Whether this is enough to let the bubble burst, remains to be seen. In the most Ponzi-favorable circumstances, i.e. no big withdrawals and a very optimistic (or greedy, to be more precise) Ponzi operator, willing to risk much of his accumulated stash, the scheme may weather this storm and carry on, but how long would it take for the less optimistic "investors" to run for safety and withdraw? After all, they could withdraw their money, wait for just a month or two, and if the "business", against all odds, survives, come back and "reinvest". At least some people believe that only the first very few withdrawers will actually see their money, so a withdrawal now would be the safest path to riches. My personal guess is weeks or a few months. A year should be out of the question because there aren't enough bitcoins in existence to make it believable, even for the mathematically challenged.

And don't think that he could just lower the interest rate. If he did, more people would withdraw their money. It's a one-way road, and not a long one.
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July 10, 2012, 06:51:07 AM
 #271

 
I would consider it. You didn't reveal the "secret" of your miner until others discovered the same leverage, did you?
Edit: From https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2949.msg40902#msg40902 I note you claimed a 6.3% advantage for owners of 69xx cards, with minimal disclosure, for 250BTC.  At least you said GPUs were involved.  Wink

Correct.

Now, back to my thought experiment: it is interesting because, as a matter of fact, it is more than merely a thought experiment. I do run at least 3 Bitcoin ventures and I would accept capital to fund their expansion. I can talk about 2 of them. My first venture is a 24Ghash/s FPGA farm. My second is the development and sale of a small number of prototype devices to remotely power on and off up to 36 computers, whose price will significantly undercut all commercial offerings by a large margin. Finally, my 3rd venture shall remain undisclosed.

Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)

reeses: I emailed you a deposit address if you wish to invest. Anybody else who is interested to invest should PM me. I will close this investment opportunity as soon as I deem I have received enough funds.

Thanks!
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July 10, 2012, 07:03:38 AM
 #272

Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)


If I wasn't aware of who you were I'd say this has the same level of truthiness as Pirate. No real disclosure, just plans. However, since you're not a mysterious shadow figure, I doubt you'd Ponzi up since you have more to lose than most.

So are you serious or was this a piss-take to see who would blithely wander from one scam to the next without thinking? After which you'd return funds and deal a lesson well earned, I imagine.

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July 10, 2012, 07:04:11 AM
 #273

… because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises …

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.

Have I missed something?

Sure you have missed something. The above point is not an assumption, but a trivial truth (except for the mathematically challenged) in a non-inflating currency like bitcoin.

This discussion needs people with some minimal mathematical ability. It would be better for the few others to shut up and stop advertising their stupidity.

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). Smiley

I'll simplify the question to make it easier for you, imsaguy, so you have at least a 50-50 chance of getting it right. Does it take more or less than five years?
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July 10, 2012, 07:04:42 AM
 #274

"It's black!"  "No, it's white"  "No, it's definitely black because of x, y, and z!"  "No, it's definitely white because of x, y, and z!"

Oh really?  Or maybe it's actually...

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July 10, 2012, 07:07:00 AM
 #275

Perhaps a suggestion to Pirate --just to shut the critics up:

Very simply, why not just return all the principal and interest to all of your clientele? …

It may be easier to convince just one of the bigger "investors" to withdraw. If it's a Ponzi scheme (which it obviously is), that would already burst the bubble.
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July 10, 2012, 07:08:20 AM
 #276

Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)


If I wasn't aware of who you were I'd say this has the same level of truthiness as Pirate. No real disclosure, just plans. However, since you're not a mysterious shadow figure, I doubt you'd Ponzi up since you have more to lose than most.

So are you serious or was this a piss-take to see who would blithely wander from one scam to the next without thinking? After which you'd return funds and deal a lesson well earned, I imagine.

I am serious. I will post a formal investment offer in the Securities subforum in a few minutes. Edit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92513.0
Pirate may be a fraud (IMO) but he does inspire legitimate entrepreneurs...
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July 10, 2012, 07:32:02 AM
 #277


Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). Smiley


239 weeks, 0.1btc -> 1K86jhmEgnXLREKjE5gimH9zvwBVFcQi7t thanks
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July 10, 2012, 07:41:52 AM
 #278

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). Smiley

It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:

>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887

>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925

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July 10, 2012, 07:44:07 AM
 #279

what is it with all you critics... why can't you believe only one time?

somebody had to find the holy grail, the perpetuum mobile, the free lunch, the gold of the aztecs.

seeing is believing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KzOu7UxlqU


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July 10, 2012, 07:47:40 AM
 #280

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). Smiley

It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:

>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887

>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925


wut?

1 * (1.07^238) = 9 847 797.03
1 * (1.07^239) = 10 537 142.8
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