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Author Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.  (Read 68322 times)
Vandroiy
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July 06, 2012, 10:57:02 AM
 #81

organofcorti: (oops, edited for spellfail)

As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet. If I understood it correctly, this stems from the mistake of identifying funds within a Ponzi, paper money, with real funds -- the time-frame in which a majority of imaginary funds get inflated in the Ponzi is used as a reference, to then eat up real funds in the bond. But it would be good if we don't discuss this here, it just distracts from the bet at hand.
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organofcorti
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July 06, 2012, 11:05:39 AM
 #82

organofconti:
Hah! I see what you did there. Serves me right for having a cut and paste nick.

As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet.
  I don't see it. Pirate has nothing to lose in your current arrangement. The risk is all yours and the bet itself will work against your stated aims.

But it would be good if we don't discuss this here, it just distracts from the bet at hand.

Not discuss it here? The thread that started by suggesting a bond based wager? Perhaps you should start an official "Bet" thread, then Smiley


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Vandroiy
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July 06, 2012, 11:39:20 AM
 #83

Hm, you're right I have somehow derailed the thread. I explained on PM why your bond doesn't make sense though. Should we still split the thread or something? Oh, and sorry for the nick typo. Tongue

I fear the bond discussion will just get convoluted. Short version: if you really want to know, sit down and try to simulate that bond with an actual Ponzi as a model. You'll see the Ponzi paying ridiculous interest on ridiculous numbers in the end, which can never be paid, while the bond burns real money rapidly.

Trying to explain the reasoning here in detail contradicts the very reason Pirateat40 is offering this bet: many people don't really try to understand things even if they are important and happen in plain sight. He is an expert on judging what people will and will not see. It's not the right game for me to play. Plus, if I'm right, it would cost me a bet with positive expectation value even if I persuade people against all odds, so why not try the bet first?

I never claimed it'll work for me with 100%. I won't starve if I lose the 5k. Bitcoin would just miss out on some later move I might use them for. But it's surprising how people are concerned for me, yesterday I was still under the impression the whole forum hated me.
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July 06, 2012, 11:46:36 AM
 #84

Uh-huh.    Aaaanyway, are we also to assume that by you making this bet you're going to give it a rest and stop trolling pirate going forward, along with whichever other cronies also join in?

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July 06, 2012, 11:53:59 AM
 #85

As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet.
  I don't see it. Pirate has nothing to lose in your current arrangement. The risk is all yours and the bet itself will work against your stated aims.


Let the kid manage his own risk.
Or are you just like him and will troll him until he drops any risky investment he's about to do?

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July 06, 2012, 12:29:41 PM
 #86

Vandroiy - IMO you should suck up your pride and back out of this bet.  It's not something you can win.  Vegas weekend is coming and more people are going to find out who pirate is.  Making any bets your not 100% sure of before hand is just ludicrous.  I predict after Vegas weekend you too will find out and be pissed that you made this bet.  That is unless your a high enough roller that it will make no difference to you that you just lost 5k btc.  If you are in the states then you should be one of those who meet up with him in Vegas.  (much cheaper than throwing away 5k btc)
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July 06, 2012, 12:30:19 PM
 #87

Hm, you're right I have somehow derailed the thread. I explained on PM why your bond doesn't make sense though. Should we still split the thread or something? Oh, and sorry for the nick typo. Tongue
Wasn't talking about my proposal, I was asking you for your opinion on Meni's which is a completely different kettle of boots. As for a thread split, you might just want to start an Official BS&T Wager thread for clarity.

Plus, if I'm right, it would cost me a bet with positive expectation value even if I persuade people against all odds, so why not try the bet first?
Because Pirate has nothing to lose. For him, it's not a bet. If he's going to default, it's an investment to encourage investor confidence.

Quote
I never claimed it'll work for me with 100%. I won't starve if I lose the 5k. Bitcoin would just miss out on some later move I might use them for. But it's surprising how people are concerned for me, yesterday I was still under the impression the whole forum hated me.

It's not that. I'm sure you have assessed the risks and are comfortable with them. I just don't think it will achieve anything other than one of you losing. It certainly won't make people stop and think before investing more with BS&T.

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July 06, 2012, 12:34:56 PM
 #88

This bet is actually a win-win for both players

-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40

-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it

Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet

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July 06, 2012, 12:35:31 PM
 #89

As I see it, that bond was not just one, but two classes worse than the current bet.
  I don't see it. Pirate has nothing to lose in your current arrangement. The risk is all yours and the bet itself will work against your stated aims.


Let the kid manage his own risk.


Vandroiy's risk is not huge, it's just that for Pirate - regardless of the truth - there is no risk at all. It's a pointless bet. Pirate wins either way.

Or are you just like him and will troll him until he drops any risky investment he's about to do?

Psy, you're right. I should just come out and say it here: I'm actually Vandroiys mother.

*sigh*

As you can see I'm not a very good troll, Psy, but when I am I'm an Equal Opportunities troll. I promise I'll try harder next time.





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organofcorti
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July 06, 2012, 12:38:03 PM
 #90

This bet is actually a win-win for both players

-Vandroyi: He deposits let's say 2.500 coins with Pirateat40; if he wins the bet he wins 2.500 BTC (100% return) and if he loses he will get 82.500 BTC from Pirateat40

-Pirateat40: It's a confidence booster for BTCST, so legit or not he will profit from it

Excellent job, they are both buying time and both stand to gain much more they they bet

Good point. I think the losing penalty needs to be more severe for both players (no, not a sexual punishment, Psy, although I like the way you think).

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pirateat40
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July 06, 2012, 01:17:00 PM
 #91

To make this stand out:

Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.

I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.

I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.

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July 06, 2012, 01:32:01 PM
 #92

To make this stand out:

Pirateat40, is it okay if the donation funds get locked up until the end of the bet even if you manage a seemingly orderly shutdown, and the bet continues on whatever operations of similar type you might run until the deadline or that stem off BS&T? This is security against tricks in which BS&T effectively just renames or re-opens, and the pay-out is not really what is seems to be.

I'll try to get a final formulation of the bet asap.

I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.
What Vandroiy is afraid of is you pulling shenanigans. As an example: If you set up BTCSTv.2 in a few months, with exactly the same conditions, and transfer all users' funds there, then you could claim that BTCST is shut down and you returned every coin to your lenders('s new accounts) and therefore you win.

Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.

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July 06, 2012, 01:34:58 PM
 #93

What Vandroiy is afraid of is you pulling shenanigans. As an example: If you set up BTCSTv.2 in a few months, with exactly the same conditions, and transfer all users' funds there, then you could claim that BTCST is shut down and you returned every coin to your lenders('s new accounts) and therefore you win.

Of course the scenario is silly, and if hypothetically it would happen everyone would see through such shenanigans. To placate Vandroiy perhaps an impartial person or group should judge.

Changing the name and moving funds is one thing.  Returning all the coins is another.

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July 06, 2012, 03:42:22 PM
 #94

I've been running BS&T awhile now and the ultimate goal to prove your case is that I don't have the coins to repay my lenders.

The terms I stated before are still the only way I'll play this game.

If I default (payments fall past-due longer than 7 days or BS&T is unable to process a withdraw after 72 hours.), you win.

If I return every coin to my lenders at anytime prior to the end of the bet or my operation last longer than the deadline, I win.

I have a solution for this that makes you no trouble at all, but keeps my constraints.

If you do an orderly shutdown, your half of the bet gets repaid a few weeks after the shutdown, but you must place it in again if you or BS&T start another Ponzi-suspicious endeavor within the bet's time-frame (anything that relies heavily on people lending you money). My half gets locked up until the end of the bet's time or a default, and if the end comes, is donated to charity.

Nobody suffers. Your funds don't get locked, the charity donation is at least as good in 2013 as it is today, and I need not fear you just faking a shutdown with some mountain of money from whatever previous heists of yours, or whatever strange tactics.

Edit: This is really just formulation stuff now. Unless you plan to shutdown quickly after the bet, just to start-up something very similar right afterwards, the clause is of no consequence to you. Wager comes back, charity gets paid automatically, no hassle for you at all.

Edit2: There has to be some way to make this simple. I'm trying to think up some way to formulate it that doesn't get too convoluted... gimme a moment.
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July 06, 2012, 05:34:31 PM
 #95

Okay. Whatever. We've been stalling this long enough; an orderly shutdown for 5k would be quite excessive, you'd have to execute the charity thing with it, and someone would see what's going on, and I give >90% that you couldn't pay even if you wanted to. 5k charity to see you do the monkey? Acceptable.

Disagreement is over, back to getting this thing done. I'm working with nanotube to finish the contract.
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July 06, 2012, 05:54:01 PM
 #96

doesn't this open a blackmail opportunity against pirate?

i can claim that my withdrawal of my account (which i don't have) is being refused.  and a little birdie tells pirate i can shut up for a few dozens of bitcoins.

how would anyone know i really have or don't have funds at pirate?

or even if i did have an account, and i did successfully withdraw, i could still claim my withdraw request was refused hoping to collect on a bet on the "will default" side.

documenting transactions (encrypted with hashes published) so that nobody can see them normally but if there is a dispute then the content of any specific transaction can be revealed by either party and then verified is one precaution.

there are so many holes.  is this really workable?
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July 06, 2012, 05:58:52 PM
 #97

I hope you remember the day you let your emotions get the best of you.  

Ready when you are.

Sure! How's this for the terms:

Both I and you (Pirateat40) place 5000 BTC each into an escrow held by Nanotube. If after 2013-10-01, that's the first of October 2013, BS&T has not defaulted on payments, Pirateat40 gets the funds. In the case of a default, I (Vandroiy) get the funds.

A default is identified by customers' funds being locked down for two consecutive weeks.

Something among these lines?

Perfect and I don't think you could have picked a better escrow.  When your funds hit the escrow let me know.

O.o

This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

(BFL)^2 < 0
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July 06, 2012, 06:31:59 PM
 #98

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July 06, 2012, 06:34:54 PM
 #99

Quote
This deal is too good... correct me if I'm wrong, but Vandroiy is at least doubling his coins risk-free... (if he deposits too)

I've already done the math on that, and it's a beautiful arbitrage scenario!
Vandroiy
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July 06, 2012, 06:47:03 PM
 #100

lol, it's just as priceless as always, just that this time nobody is trying to make up explanations.

The pirate might still be tricking me, yarr. But it'd be strange if I were betting on that, no? So what am I thinking that he thinks? Huh
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