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Author Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.  (Read 68205 times)
Vandroiy
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July 09, 2012, 08:50:09 PM
 #241

BS &T?

The name was in fact suggested by the users and not pirate.
I really don't know why I'm telling you this. It's so much better to just leave you oblivious and laugh at your nonsense.

Okay, I believe you I'm wrong on that. One style point removed. Meh. It would have made a much cooler story if it had been his idea. But the mybitcoin quote makes up for a lot, so no worries. Grin

Edit: holy shit, five posts because I was afk while typing this? I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine! I should make them more often, it increases the mood! Smiley
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dooglus
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July 09, 2012, 09:00:20 PM
 #242

I was afk while typing this

I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine!

Yup.  Grin

Raoul Duke
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July 09, 2012, 09:02:57 PM
 #243

I was afk while typing this

I can't believe how happy people are to point out a mistake of mine!

Yup.  Grin

I'm starting to see a pattern there. hmm...

Vandroiy
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July 09, 2012, 09:08:01 PM
 #244

To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. Embarrassed

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?
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July 09, 2012, 09:30:01 PM
 #245

To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. Embarrassed

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.
imsaguy
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July 09, 2012, 09:41:13 PM
 #246

To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. Embarrassed

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.

Unless of course nanotube IS pirate.  You'll note a shocking lack of pictures of nanotube on the internet.  I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even exist as we know him, instead a sock puppet, even satoshi himself.

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Raoul Duke
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July 09, 2012, 09:50:53 PM
 #247

To explain this anomaly, let us begin with introducing Dirac notation so I can be in a state |typing> ... okok I just got the "new post" warning after I tabbed out. Embarrassed

We need another re-railing post. Groundbreaking theories on BS&T, anyone?

We found his island and it contained conclusive proof of his Ponziness. You might as well just get the money from nanotube right now.

Unless of course nanotube IS pirate.  You'll note a shocking lack of pictures of nanotube on the internet.  I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't even exist as we know him, instead a sock puppet, even satoshi himself.

Google disagrees with you...
http://www.google.com/search?num=10&hl=en&site=imghp&tbm=isch&source=hp&q="nanotube"

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July 09, 2012, 10:16:34 PM
 #248

BS &T?

The name was in fact suggested by the users and not pirate.
I really don't know why I'm telling you this. It's so much better to just leave you oblivious and laugh at your nonsense.

Facts don't matter.  It's truthiness that matters.  Truthiness comes from the gut.

There are no facts of pirate generating returns. I will concede that his bitcoinica screenshot, if legit, is some evidence of a profitable trade (though not of "market arbitrage" or "local loans"). Other than that timely release, everything else looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck. Don't be surprised when its a duck.

That price is going higher increases probability if default. Think about it, if price were decreasing there would be more incentive to stay deposited.

With price going up, people's original deposit is increasing in value. Now their principal is worth more than what they intended to risk at the time, to say nothing of their gains. Lenders are certainly growing uneasy, the smart ones don't want to be last-out-the-door bag-holders (eg MageD). And at 7% weekly, it will take very few lender withdrawals of gains and principal before there's nothing left. Not even counting what pirate intends to keep for himself!

Very few of you will be first out.

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imsaguy
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July 09, 2012, 10:42:47 PM
 #249

FUD FUD FUD LIP SERVICE FUD

Got any proof besides the same old bs already spewed out?  Price has been appreciating for the last 6 months.  People were lending as price went down and people have been lending has price as gone back up.

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bitcoinBull
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July 09, 2012, 11:10:05 PM
 #250

FUD FUD FUD LIP SERVICE FUD

Got any proof besides the same old bs already spewed out?  Price has been appreciating for the last 6 months.  People were lending as price went down and people have been lending as price as gone up.

Obviously the proof rests with pirate and pirate only, or it wouldn't be a working scam-in-progress. Since the last high of $7.2 price has been decreasing or going sideways, except for the previous month. But more important, are those 6 months or 24 weeks of 7% weekly compounding gains, over 500%!

And you, got any proof that your 500% actually exists? You can withdraw and be relieved that *yours* exists. But don't think that because pirate has a rating on #bitcoin-otc that there will be enough for everybody!

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July 09, 2012, 11:29:33 PM
 #251

Or the part where many people don't compound...

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
imsaguy
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July 09, 2012, 11:39:56 PM
 #252

Or the part where many people don't compound...

the largest investors aren't compounding.  We'd have hit the wall already if it were really a ponzi.

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bitcoinBull
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July 10, 2012, 12:11:55 AM
 #253

Or the part where many people don't compound...

the largest investors aren't compounding.  We'd have hit the wall already if it were really a ponzi.

The wall isn't hit until the withdraws start. If the biggest investors aren't compounding, that means there's even less in there since they've been continually pulling their interest. Now its just about who's the first to pull their principal.

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imsaguy
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July 10, 2012, 12:32:06 AM
 #254

Or the part where many people don't compound...

the largest investors aren't compounding.  We'd have hit the wall already if it were really a ponzi.

The wall isn't hit until the withdraws start. If the biggest investors aren't compounding, that means there's even less in there since they've been continually pulling their interest. Now its just about who's the first to pull their principal.

No derp.  Let me explain it for you.. the largest accounts are taking interest payments, which means the little accounts would have to be depositing like crazy in order to pay for the large accounts.  If the little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't going to be the little accounts anymore, which means they really AREN'T depositing enough which means pirate is finding the funds elsewhere... like profits, not ponzi.  You idiots think the 7%ers are blind, but damn, you guys are failing basic logic now.

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SimBesh
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July 10, 2012, 12:37:35 AM
 #255

hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.
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July 10, 2012, 01:15:18 AM
 #256

No derp.  Let me explain it for you.. the largest accounts are taking interest payments, which means the little accounts would have to be depositing like crazy in order to pay for the large accounts.  If the little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't going to be the little accounts anymore, which means they really AREN'T depositing enough which means pirate is finding the funds elsewhere... like profits, not ponzi.  You idiots think the 7%ers are blind, but damn, you guys are failing basic logic now.

Or pirate is making those interest payments with investor principal both large and small (as I originally said, not enough principal to go around now). If you allow for that possibility, then you can't derive your proof by contradiction ("if little accounts are depositing like crazy, they aren't little accounts. therefore, pirate is generating real profits. ergo sum").

So, therefore, he's been using investor principal to pay large lenders' interest. As long as new deposits come in faster than the interest payments, then the total funds grow and it makes sense for the operator to continue paying interest. When new deposits stop coming, an operator who wants to maximize his personal profit will stop paying interest and you get default.

The lenders doing pass-through have an edge on the timing since they have access to more information. They should withdraw if they see their own deposits slowing.

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FredericBastiat
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July 10, 2012, 01:28:09 AM
 #257

Perhaps a suggestion to Pirate --just to shut the critics up:

Very simply, why not just return all the principal and interest to all of your clientele? It's likely that all the investors you have now will reinvest and/or return to you even after the interim closure. It might temporarily disrupt your business for a few days, but it's probably nothing you couldn't cure over the short term with your profits.

I'm not sure how this could be proven without full disclosure from all of the participants, and it does expose some of the privacy from each of the account holders, but I'm sure it could be arranged with nanotube for him to make the final determination. Additionally, it shouldn't be considered a trick either, since if it were a true Ponzi, the interest and principal could not be returned, thus incurring a default. The only other possibility is Pirate's deep pockets and infinite altruism.

All things being equal, I think it would be a hassle, but it would make for some really interesting newsworthiness. Events such as these could very well prove that the less the regulatory friction, the better returns on the average, are available to market participants. I hate the cost of overhead...

Personally, I don't care whether or not it's a Ponzi, I like the game. It is what it is. I can live with that.

EDIT: Scratch that. I just remembered that Mt.Gox limits outflows. That would suck for me until I became qualified. I guess I better get on that, eh?

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July 10, 2012, 02:57:06 AM
 #258

To put things into perspective, the Danish currency is pretty popular in these financial crisis times, so to keep the Danish Kroner at the same exchange rate towards the Euro they have lowered the interest rate to -0.2% (yes, thats negative interest rate). Banks are still investing as they consider this a safer place to invest than many alternatives out there.
http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKL6E8I5A8520120705?irpc=932

For some reason BS&T can give you 3000+%, maybe I should contact some Danish bankers and thell them that there are alternatives  Roll Eyes

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imsaguy
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July 10, 2012, 03:16:26 AM
 #259

They should withdraw if they see their own deposits slowing.

See, now you're making assumptions.  You're telling people what to do as if it were a ponzi but you've not actually established it is one. 

There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:

  • No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
  • No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
  • No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
  • Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
  • Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.


Have I missed something?

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Jan
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July 10, 2012, 04:00:15 AM
 #260

Sorry, I didn't get much sense out of your reply.
Anyway, I don't know where you live, but visiting Denmark on the way to Dubai is for most people not exactly on the route.
(BTW: Denmark is not exactly a continent.)

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