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Author Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is.  (Read 72852 times)
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July 13, 2012, 05:38:02 AM
 #381

Some people (Who? Pirate himself? SR? Jimmy Hoffa?) pay a premium for vanilla coins. That's the theory.

Thanks, I was missing this. Though I think some pools do their payouts as generated/virgin/vanilla coins, eligius pool for one.


Right, but to take advantage of this, you have to actually mine. Pirate doesn't mine, or at least not as many coins as he needs, so he just pays people to mine coins for him.
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July 13, 2012, 11:59:19 AM
 #382

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
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July 13, 2012, 12:30:54 PM
 #383

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?

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July 13, 2012, 01:23:01 PM
 #384

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

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July 13, 2012, 06:18:22 PM
 #385

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

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July 13, 2012, 06:55:30 PM
 #386

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

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July 13, 2012, 06:57:32 PM
 #387

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments?  That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7.

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
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dooglus
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July 13, 2012, 07:08:40 PM
 #388

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments?  That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7.

Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

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imsaguy
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July 13, 2012, 07:26:36 PM
 #389

What's the going estimate of how much Pirate has taken in, not counting any interest? BTC100,000? BTC200,000? No clue? Have some of his clients revealed their payments?
Between 100k and 300k btc, and that's just with the information that we have. He could easily have more.

So he took in 300k... how much has he paid out?  Without a reference point, coins flowing in means nothing.

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

How do you account for the people that ask for withdrawals timed with the interest payments?  That will artificially inflate their interest payment by a factor of 7.

Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

Coming Soon!™ © imsaguy 2011-2013, All rights reserved.

EIEIO:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60117.0

Shades Minoco Collection Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=65989
Payment Address: http://btc.to/5r6
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July 13, 2012, 07:38:29 PM
 #390

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

Looking at the target address history and the timing of withdrawals makes it possible to distinguish between the two with reasonable accuracy.

Edit: also
<pirateat40> zerokwel, i wish i only paid out 22k a week. Sad
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July 13, 2012, 07:54:10 PM
 #391

I'm not surprised nobody has taken up your offer. To produce more BTC than it costs to purchase shares, somebody must be selling shares for less than they're worth (or there's some strategy analogous to pool-hopping).

Define "worth".

What you would in BTC get by submitting the share to any mining pool.

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July 13, 2012, 07:57:31 PM
 #392

Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

That makes sense, but what I asked is whether withdrawals and interest appear in the same transaction.

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July 13, 2012, 07:58:17 PM
 #393

Do regular withdrawals appear in the same transaction as interest payments?

People have a singular withdrawal address.  If you request a withdrawal, it appears just like an interest payment.

That makes sense, but what I asked is whether withdrawals and interest appear in the same transaction.

Ask pirate?

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July 13, 2012, 10:34:27 PM
 #394

I think the 300k is a rough estimate of current holdings based on last week's interest payment.

It appears that at least 22k BTC was paid out in interest last week.  Assuming nobody automatically re-invested, and that everyone gets 7% per week, that means total holding are 22k/0.07 = 314k BTC.  Of course some people do re-invest, and some get lower interest rates, so the real figure will be higher than this.

My guess is that many of his clients, probably a majority, work with compound interest. My reasoning is that people who pay in a relatively small amount base their investment on the hope to turn their insignificant initial investment into a significant amount.

If you only pay in a three-digit amount, what you earn by having your 7% paid out weekly is and remains peanuts. But if you could compound your interest over a year or two or three, you'd be rich.

I therefore guess that those who compound their interest tend to be three-digit investors, while those who collect their interest weekly tend to be those with larger investments. This is admittedly only a wild guess. It would mean that he has considerably more than 300k BTC, but not two or three times as much. My rough guess (based on your guess) would be 500k, quite a tidy amount of untidy money, enough to live a moderate life of leisure. It remains mere guesswork, but I wouldn't be surprised if we hit near home.

This makes me more confident that the scheme will end soon, probably this month, next month at the latest. If he kept having to pay out 22k BTC every week, without a steady stream of new investors his stockpile would be empty after a relatively low number of weeks, much less than a year. But he does not want to get anywhere near empty, so he has to end it very soon.

If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?
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July 13, 2012, 10:36:22 PM
 #395

If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.

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July 13, 2012, 10:42:34 PM
 #396

If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.


Shhhhh, let them run with it. Smiley

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July 13, 2012, 11:33:09 PM
 #397

If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.

Don't you guys call it "public work"?

It's pretty simple to talk about an invite-only black-box and act like others are wrong. But this doesn't match the terminology used in the gpumax thread, so I'm not convinced.

I'll just ask people there.
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July 13, 2012, 11:59:06 PM
 #398

If he wanted to launder most of his gains, his laundromat would have to be running full bore now. Is that what we actually observe?

Is this a reference to gpumax?  If so, its wrong.  GPUMax leasing hasn't been running much at all.

Don't you guys call it "public work"?

It's pretty simple to talk about an invite-only black-box and act like others are wrong. But this doesn't match the terminology used in the gpumax thread, so I'm not convinced.

I'll just ask people there.

I run all of my hashing power through gpumax and imsaguy is correct. There has not been much public work. Us "in the know" call it leasing.
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July 14, 2012, 12:05:07 AM
 #399

I run all of my hashing power through gpumax and imsaguy is correct. There has not been much public work. Us "in the know" call it leasing.

Okay... does this mean you are getting fresh coins?

That's the main point actually. Is there a lot of hashpower used on work that is paid with coins that have history? How big is the fraction of clean or relatively new coins?

Edit: "I run all of my hashing power through gpumax" is the important part here -- so they control which coins you get, no?
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July 14, 2012, 12:29:20 AM
 #400

No, dumbshit.

Any answers by people that haven't been blacklisted for ages?
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