ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[ghostshirt]

First $100M company without a website.

[tolan77]

Hey guys, I posted a video about ASICMiner shares breaking 2BTC/share. It has received a lot of positive feedback, if you able, I suggest you go check it out
http://youtu.be/76EcAinKPDo

The cat blanket is what really ties the video together

[fently]

A simpler calculation: there are approximately 9 million coins remaining to be mined. 10% of that, divided by 400,000 shares gives you 2.25 BTC per share. So things like hardware sales, transaction fees, and optimism that we'll have more than 10% share of the network had darn well better make up for the long wait to earn those 2.25 BTC. That might be reasonable. Any thoughts? (sure beats estimates based on infinity)

[stripykitteh]

A simpler calculation: there are approximately 9 million coins remaining to be mined. 10% of that, divided by 400,000 shares gives you 2.25 BTC per share. So things like hardware sales, transaction fees, and optimism that we'll have more than 10% share of the network had darn well better make up for the long wait to earn those 2.25 BTC. That might be reasonable. Any thoughts? (sure beats estimates based on infinity)

Yes, if you're looking at the next 3.5 years until the next halving, it's not clear that a valuation much higher than the current share price is warranted. After that, no one is seriously claiming that returns will be infinite, but do you agree that in the long term it's all going to be about the transaction fees? Bitcoin is a payment system, so it's going to be about how fast those Bitcoins fly around the container. The faster they fly, the more miners will make. At the moment it's very difficult to predict how soon and how fast they will be flying, but that's where most of the ongoing value in AM will be if it survives and thrives.

[fently]

A simpler calculation: there are approximately 9 million coins remaining to be mined. 10% of that, divided by 400,000 shares gives you 2.25 BTC per share. So things like hardware sales, transaction fees, and optimism that we'll have more than 10% share of the network had darn well better make up for the long wait to earn those 2.25 BTC. That might be reasonable. Any thoughts? (sure beats estimates based on infinity)

Yes, if you're looking at the next 3.5 years until the next halving, it's not clear that a valuation much higher than the current share price is warranted. After that, no one is seriously claiming that returns will be infinite, but do you agree that in the long term it's all going to be about the transaction fees? Bitcoin is a payment system, so it's going to be about how fast those Bitcoins fly around the container. The faster they fly, the more miners will make. At the moment it's very difficult to predict how soon and how fast they will be flying, but that's where most of the ongoing value in AM will be if it survives and thrives.

Oh the halving affects the rate, but not the total amount. Not to mention, we're currently at much higher than 10% of all coins even before counting hardware sales. So if we continue as we are now, we'd probably be looking at close to 50%. I'm just looking at the pessimistic, ultra-conservative scenario of 10% between mining, hardware sales, and transaction fees. Regarding the transaction fees, it is indeed difficult to determine what will happen, but if they aren't high enough to provide incentive for the miners, then they won't go through. Funny thing that.. we may end up mining not because of the transaction fees but because failure to mine means our existing bitcoins may become worthless.

[InstantBTC]

A simpler calculation: there are approximately 9 million coins remaining to be mined. 10% of that, divided by 400,000 shares gives you 2.25 BTC per share. So things like hardware sales, transaction fees, and optimism that we'll have more than 10% share of the network had darn well better make up for the long wait to earn those 2.25 BTC. That might be reasonable. Any thoughts? (sure beats estimates based on infinity)

Interesting way to calculate it, but there are a few flaws. That estimate is based off of the total mined income over the course of then next ~130 years, assuming AM maintains 10% of the network for that entire time frame. However, they only expect to maintain 10% of the network for the next year or so, and at most until the next halving. Bear in mind, this only pertains to mining income. I'm having trouble trying to value based on sales of hardware.

[rastapool]

I'm auctioning off 400 of my shares https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208348.0
remains less than 12 hours
current lowest price is 1.72 it is chance to get really cheap AM shares

[fently]

A simpler calculation: there are approximately 9 million coins remaining to be mined. 10% of that, divided by 400,000 shares gives you 2.25 BTC per share. So things like hardware sales, transaction fees, and optimism that we'll have more than 10% share of the network had darn well better make up for the long wait to earn those 2.25 BTC. That might be reasonable. Any thoughts? (sure beats estimates based on infinity)

Interesting way to calculate it, but there are a few flaws. That estimate is based off of the total mined income over the course of then next ~130 years, assuming AM maintains 10% of the network for that entire time frame. However, they only expect to maintain 10% of the network for the next year or so, and at most until the next halving. Bear in mind, this only pertains to mining income. I'm having trouble trying to value based on sales of hardware.

It's horribly flawed, but it might be a reasonable start. One thing to offset that very long time span is the expectation that we will exceed those performance goals earlier and probably not quite meet them near the end.

[Surprise]

Hashrate is plummeting, we're at ~13 TH/s now. I wonder if this is the transition to the solo pool in action.

[SmiGueL]

Hashrate is plummeting, we're at ~13 TH/s now. I wonder if this is the transition to the solo pool in action.

First thing I thought was that Friedcat just sold 5TH/s of Blades which would give us an ~0.06 BTC/share dividend.  

*Serious mode:
But I think it's 'one of those dips' or indeed switching to solomining. Couldn't find them in one of the other pools.

(I'd rather see them put that effort in getting more blades online than switching from the pools....
More mining blades = more profit , and the poolswitching can be done when the whole batch is up or sold and we're waiting for the new 200 TH/s batch to arrive (aka: end of june or july))

[Caesium]

Hashrate is plummeting, we're at ~13 TH/s now. I wonder if this is the transition to the solo pool in action.

I sure hope so, currently us shareholders are lining the pockets of BTC Guild for no good reason.

[thx1164]

Regarding the transaction fees, it is indeed difficult to determine what will happen, but if they aren't high enough to provide incentive for the miners, then they won't go through. Funny thing that.. we may end up mining not because of the transaction fees but because failure to mine means our existing bitcoins may become worthless.

No one will mine with transaction fees not at least equaling out to the amount of money via electricity going in, and therefore simply will not accept tx fees below a market set amount, which will cover costs + profit. Only the small minority with "free" energy will be able to afford not to do so, and eventually I'm sure landlords, business owners etc, will all wise up. Mining farms will be centralized near the cheapest sources of energy.  Holy conspiracy theories Batman, what if Satoshi was trying to get the free market to develop free or reduce the cost of energy by giving an incentive to make energy delivery more efficient?

*edit: Even if that is just a side effect, it would be a good one...

[lophie]

[shibaji]

ASICMINER shares at 2BTC will soon look like a steal 

Very nice!

[bit777]

Unbelievable!! It might be the first btc company to hit a billion $ valuation a few years!

[CMMPro]

^There seems to be a lot of people figuring out that these are valuable shares.

My take is this....

The purchase price is in bitcoins, and you get paid dividends in bitcoins, and the price of bitcoins is generally going up up up.

Basically, I parked some of my bitcoins there by buying shares....those shares are going up in price, and the price of bitcoins is rising as well.

So really you are getting paid multiple benefits for bitcoins that would be sitting in a storage wallet anyway...the only thing you are doing is assuming some small amount of risk.  

When you look at who is running the exchanges (burnside etc.) and how they have set things up, and you read about him that small amount of risk seems very acceptable to me.

[louong]

^There seems to be a lot of people figuring out that these are valuable shares.

My take is this....

The purchase price is in bitcoins, and you get paid dividends in bitcoins, and the price of bitcoins is generally going up up up.

Basically, I parked some of my bitcoins there by buying shares....those shares are going up in price, and the price of bitcoins is rising as well.

So really you are getting paid multiple benefits for bitcoins that would be sitting in a storage wallet anyway...the only thing you are doing is assuming some small amount of risk.  

When you look at who is running the exchanges (burnside etc.) and how they have set things up, and you read about him that small amount of risk seems very acceptable to me.

This. Plus it's also a slight hedge against a falling BTC/USD price because even if the price dips, so long as ASICMINER's value stays constant or goes up, you are still earning "interest" (aka dividends) and gaining more BTC vs. just holding BTC and getting nothing for it.

[tinus42]

I bought over 60 1/100th ASICMINER Passthru shares @ Havelock today. Hope it will pan out as expected.

[shibaji]

Did the price of the share drop on BTCT because of the attacks, or did it drop everywhere ? 

Don't watch minute by minute - just kick back and relax - come back after few months.

[Aureum_Coffee]

Did the price of the share drop on BTCT because of the attacks, or did it drop everywhere ? 

May have something to do with this auction:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208348.0

400 shares of ASICminer.  With the highest bid at 1.8 BTC/share.  Lowest bid at 1.73 BTC/share.