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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3894478 times)
stripykitteh
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May 11, 2013, 04:41:56 PM
 #4681

Hey SmiGuel,

I've mentioned your name whenever I've linked the charts.  Wink

Out of interest, last week you said the predicted dividends graph was wrong because it based its estimate on 0 to 7 days before the dividend announcement, when it should have been 1 to 8 days before. Which way does the current divs graph represent this?

Thanks.
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SmiGueL
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May 11, 2013, 04:53:21 PM
Last edit: May 11, 2013, 05:57:47 PM by SmiGueL
 #4682

Out of interest, last week you said the predicted dividends graph was wrong because it based its estimate on 0 to 7 days before the dividend announcement, when it should have been 1 to 8 days before. Which way does the current divs graph represent this?

Oh I fixed that within a few hours, it's in this edit.
So it's now showing the dividends based on 192 till 24 hour before the probe point Smiley
Of course the graph is ONLY based on 90% of the mining income, so selling 50 or 100 Block Eruptors this week will add about ~0.005BTC or ~0.010BTC to the divs Wink

Asicminer Hashrate Charts @ www.asicminercharts.com

Donations BTC: 1SmiGSGWXzD5aZhmw3jyfpBFCgiki45MT
velacreations
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May 11, 2013, 05:05:36 PM
 #4683

so, if we give you credit, can we share that dividend graph?  That thing is beautiful.

stripykitteh
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May 11, 2013, 05:15:51 PM
 #4684

Oh i fixed that within a few hours, it's in this edit.
So it's now showing the dividends based on 192 till 24 hour before the probe point Smiley
Of course the graph is ONLY based on 90% of the mining income, so selling 50 or 100 Block Eruptors this week will add about ~0.005BTC or ~0.010BTC to the divs Wink

Thanks mate. Appreciate it's only looking at mining income.  Smiley
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May 11, 2013, 05:27:27 PM
Last edit: May 12, 2013, 12:08:55 PM by SmiGueL
 #4685

so, if we give you credit, can we share that dividend graph?  That thing is beautiful.

The divident graph was, in the first place, just created for myself to automatically calculate/show me the divs from mining.
Because SebastianJu noticed the sheet he posted the link here and then there were questions about it Tongue
It's pretty useless for the ones who aren't following this topic because devidends are also dependent from auctions income,
possible investments in new miners, other unseen costs. see my post here.

But for the rest of the graphs:

I thought you ment sharing it on forums etc.
The more publicity, the more buyers for the Block Erupter Blades, the more profits for shareholders Cool

If you plan to use them on a commercial website adding my donation address
isn't probably to much to ask: 1SmiGSGWXzD5aZhmw3jyfpBFCgiki45MT
*I have to think about that one, depends on the site maybe.

Until now all the days/weeks of work for that docs got me an astonishing BTC0.04
But receive anything for it is AND never was my main goal. I started with it just for fun and because I like stats. Smiley

If I ever receive enough BTC for it I 'll probably donate it back to the Asicminer shareholders by buying that
ooooooooh soo niiiiiice USB Miner  Grin

Asicminer Hashrate Charts @ www.asicminercharts.com

Donations BTC: 1SmiGSGWXzD5aZhmw3jyfpBFCgiki45MT
philipma1957
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May 11, 2013, 05:42:00 PM
 #4686

Markup of 5500% would even make Apple blush. It's like BFL being able to make a Jalapeno for $4.98.


The joke being that they can't even do it for $49,800?




Exactly. People who want ASICMINER to sell products for below market value don't quite "get" business.

What would be market value? for a blade? or for a usb stick?  what fools would pay for it or what it is really worth?

 for the sake of argument a usb stick at 300Mh/s earns .01497 BTC which is 133 days to break even at 2 BTC and 0 power.

 so if diff was 20 mill not 10 mill that stick earns .007515 btc a day which is  266 days at 0 power.

 yeah the market is willing to pay 2btc for the stick so AM should sell it at 2 BTC.  I would not pay more then 1.25BTC.

 I rather use the gpu hd7790 at a cost of about 1.1 BTC.

 The blade is   a harder call 50BTC = 5750 usd.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
BlackLilac Grant
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May 11, 2013, 05:47:39 PM
 #4687

Markup of 5500% would even make Apple blush. It's like BFL being able to make a Jalapeno for $4.98.


The joke being that they can't even do it for $49,800?




Exactly. People who want ASICMINER to sell products for below market value don't quite "get" business.

What would be market value? for a blade? or for a usb stick?  what fools would pay for it or what it is really worth?

 for the sake of argument a usb stick at 300Mh/s earns .01497 BTC which is 133 days to break even at 2 BTC and 0 power

134 days to make a profit? That would be a phenomenal return here on planet earth, but I think it will take longer due to difficulty increases.

What "fools" pay for it sets the market value. How do you determine what it's "really worth"? Who decides, you? The Politburo? Enlighten me please.
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May 11, 2013, 05:48:25 PM
 #4688

In that case you might also want to look at the speculation and alt-currency boards.

Thanks, I might do so!

BTW, why do you have a photo of me as your avatar?

Lol, do we look alike? Because that's me.
(or maybe is this some sort of joke? mmmh...)


No, that was my cousin's wedding in 2009.

well this isn't creepy at all.


haha yep that's a weird one...
velacreations
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May 11, 2013, 05:59:40 PM
 #4689

so, if we give you credit, can we share that dividend graph?  That thing is beautiful.

The divident graph was, in the first place, just created for myself to automatically calculate/show me the divs from mining.
Because ChristianJu found out the link he posted it here and then there were questions about it Tongue
It's pretty useless for the one's not following this topic because devidends are also dependent from auctions income,
possible investments in new miners, other unseen costs. see my post here.

From a shareholder's/new investor's point of view, that dividend chart means a lot.  It shows increasing potential, increasing payout.  Sure, there is a lot of fine print that comes with that, but to me, people are buying AM shares right now because of increasing dividends, so I like to show it off.

I don't have a commericial website to do this, just reddit, this forum, and maybe a facebook group that discusses bitcoin.

Needless to say, you have done a great job with this stuff, and we all appreciate it.

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May 11, 2013, 06:05:24 PM
 #4690


Until now all the days/weeks of work for that docs got me an astonishing BTC0.04


Make that 0.06  Grin Thanks!
ThickAsThieves
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May 11, 2013, 06:30:15 PM
 #4691

so, if we give you credit, can we share that dividend graph?  That thing is beautiful.

The divident graph was, in the first place, just created for myself to automatically calculate/show me the divs from mining.
Because SebastianJu noticed the sheet he posted the link here and then there were questions about it Tongue
It's pretty useless for the one's not following this topic because devidends are also dependent from auctions income,
possible investments in new miners, other unseen costs. see my post here.

But for the rest of the graphs:

I thought you ment sharing it on forums etc.
The more publicity, the more buyers for the Block Erupter Blades, the more profits for shareholders Cool

If you plan to use them on a commercial website adding my donation address
isn't probably to much to ask: 1SmiGSGWXzD5aZhmw3jyfpBFCgiki45MT
*I have to think about that one, depends on the site maybe.

Until now all the days/weeks of work for that docs got me an astonishing BTC0.04
But receive anything for it is AND never was my main goal. I started with it just for fun and because I like stats. Smiley

If I ever receive enough BTC for it I 'll probably donate it back to the Asicminer shareholders by buying that
ooooooooh soo niiiiiice USB Miner  Grin

Please check your pm when you get a chance Wink
SebastianJu
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May 11, 2013, 06:37:52 PM
 #4692

so, if we give you credit, can we share that dividend graph?  That thing is beautiful.

The divident graph was, in the first place, just created for myself to automatically calculate/show me the divs from mining.
Because SebastianJu noticed the sheet he posted the link here and then there were questions about it Tongue
It's pretty useless for the one's not following this topic because devidends are also dependent from auctions income,
possible investments in new miners, other unseen costs. see my post here.

But for the rest of the graphs:

I thought you ment sharing it on forums etc.
The more publicity, the more buyers for the Block Erupter Blades, the more profits for shareholders Cool

If you plan to use them on a commercial website adding my donation address
isn't probably to much to ask: 1SmiGSGWXzD5aZhmw3jyfpBFCgiki45MT
*I have to think about that one, depends on the site maybe.

Until now all the days/weeks of work for that docs got me an astonishing BTC0.04
But receive anything for it is AND never was my main goal. I started with it just for fun and because I like stats. Smiley

If I ever receive enough BTC for it I 'll probably donate it back to the Asicminer shareholders by buying that
ooooooooh soo niiiiiice USB Miner  Grin

Arent 24 hours back a bit much? I mean friedcat most probably sits down on wednesday, takes the numbers and calculates /400000. So im not sure that he will use numbers from 24 hours ago. And why the 10% less? The fees are 3% percent only at the pool. But there are other things like transaction fees that are collected. Sometimes thats a plus of 1% too. So i think the 10% less might make it more wrong than more exact. Or is there something i didnt think about?

Please ALWAYS contact me through bitcointalk pm before sending someone coins.
baloo_kiev
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May 11, 2013, 06:56:52 PM
 #4693

Markup of 5500% would even make Apple blush. It's like BFL being able to make a Jalapeno for $4.98.


The joke being that they can't even do it for $49,800?




Exactly. People who want ASICMINER to sell products for below market value don't quite "get" business.

What would be market value? for a blade? or for a usb stick?  what fools would pay for it or what it is really worth?

 for the sake of argument a usb stick at 300Mh/s earns .01497 BTC which is 133 days to break even at 2 BTC and 0 power

134 days to make a profit? That would be a phenomenal return here on planet earth, but I think it will take longer due to difficulty increases.

What "fools" pay for it sets the market value. How do you determine what it's "really worth"? Who decides, you? The Politburo? Enlighten me please.

I'll try to.
"Really worth" means returning at least it's price (+ a few percent) in a lifetime. Try to use the mining calculator (http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/) to predict the return. Set electricity cost to 0, and BTC price to 100 (the exact number doesn't matter, as we are calculating profitability in BTC). Break even is 134 days only if you set decline to 1 (no difficulty increase).
Now imagine difficulty doubles every 6 month. That will be 0.25 decrease per year, which makes break even time 187 days.
If it doubles every 4 months (0.125 decline), break even time is 252 days.
For 3 months doubling period it shows ">10000" days. Don't you think this scenario is probable, taking into account that next generation chips are in development?

EDIT. As a shareholder, I highly appreciate "fools" buying devices at this price. But is that really fair? And which impact will this have on Bitcoin community, if the difficulty skyrockets in 3 months and the buyers start to realize that their devices will never break even?

PGP: 6EC48BA7
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velacreations
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May 11, 2013, 07:24:06 PM
 #4694

And which impact will this have on Bitcoin community, if the difficulty skyrockets in 3 months and the buyers start to realize that their devices will never break even?

The greater risk, IMO, is that people lose faith in AM products in the near future, so demand decreases.  That is the ultimate risk, as it will drastically reduce the profitability of selling products.

pierrejo
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May 11, 2013, 07:33:45 PM
 #4695

And which impact will this have on Bitcoin community, if the difficulty skyrockets in 3 months and the buyers start to realize that their devices will never break even?

The greater risk, IMO, is that people lose faith in AM products in the near future, so demand decreases.  That is the ultimate risk, as it will drastically reduce the profitability of selling products.


Come on. The biggest risk is they stop buying from AM and demand decreases and AM adjusts the price down. Big whoop, div goes down a bit. Market will regulate itself.
philipma1957
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May 11, 2013, 07:41:02 PM
 #4696

there is a funny spot for AM.  Right now no one is selling Asics except AM.  Avalon has been really slow BFL forget that boat it is too slow.

AM needs to help the balance of power by selling the 'right amount' of asics to single miners.  The network was projected to grow quite a bit faster but with Avalon's slowdown and BFL's crawl it is still under 100Th.  

Just think AM has 200 Th the rest of the network has 100 Th  total 300Th.  Bad case scenario. For a long plan.  So AM needs to sell just enough hash power at the right prices. As for the right price being 2 BTC for a usb stick and 50 BTC for a blade I would argue a little lower would be better.  

Maybe 1.25 BTC and 35 BTC.  Very hard to judge since I am an outsider I don't know what avalon or bfl will do.

 Also pierrejo's point is valid sales will slow and AM can lower price.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
velacreations
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May 11, 2013, 07:42:14 PM
 #4697

Come on. The biggest risk is they stop buying from AM and demand decreases and AM adjusts the price down. Big whoop, div goes down a bit. Market will regulate itself.

yeah, I don't want the div to go down, though.  I prefer it when it is up.

And what you said only works when there is no competitor.  When someone else is shipping, the market adjusts by not buying your product.

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May 11, 2013, 07:44:25 PM
 #4698

there is a funny spot for AM.  Right now no one is selling Asics except AM.  Avalon has been really slow BFL forget that boat it is too slow.

AM needs to help the balance of power by selling the 'right amount' of asics to single miners.  The network was projected to grow quite a bit faster but with Avalon's slowdown and BFL's crawl it is still under 100Th.  

Just think AM has 200 Th the rest of the network has 100 Th  total 300Th.  Bad case scenario. For a long plan.  So AM needs to sell just enough hash power at the right prices. As for the right price being 2 BTC for a usb stick and 50 BTC for a blade I would argue a little lower would be better.  

Maybe 1.25 BTC and 35 BTC.  Very hard to judge since I am an outsider I don't know what avalon or bfl will do.

 Also pierrejo's point is valid sales will slow and AM can lower price.
judging by how fast the blades sell and what they resell for, I think they are priced fine.

as for the USB miners, I think either the price drops or the minimum drops.  But, they won't be doing that, so we'll just have to watch how it develops.  I think if the USB were priced at 1.25 btc, they would have been sold out by now.

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May 11, 2013, 07:45:17 PM
 #4699

Come on. The biggest risk is they stop buying from AM and demand decreases and AM adjusts the price down. Big whoop, div goes down a bit. Market will regulate itself.

yeah, I don't want the div to go down, though.  I prefer it when it is up.

And what you said only works when there is no competitor.  When someone else is shipping, the market adjusts by not buying your product.


 I have been looking at bfl since aug of 2012   they are a bust. I cancelled all orders with them except 2x jalapeno's.

 I used the refunds to buy asicminer stock and more hd7790 gpus.

 I hash at 10GH/s but burn so much fucking power it is sad. Still make 40USD profit each day.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
ThickAsThieves
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May 11, 2013, 07:48:05 PM
 #4700

there is a funny spot for AM.  Right now no one is selling Asics except AM.  Avalon has been really slow BFL forget that boat it is too slow.

AM needs to help the balance of power by selling the 'right amount' of asics to single miners.  The network was projected to grow quite a bit faster but with Avalon's slowdown and BFL's crawl it is still under 100Th.  

Just think AM has 200 Th the rest of the network has 100 Th  total 300Th.  Bad case scenario. For a long plan.  So AM needs to sell just enough hash power at the right prices. As for the right price being 2 BTC for a usb stick and 50 BTC for a blade I would argue a little lower would be better.  

Maybe 1.25 BTC and 35 BTC.  Very hard to judge since I am an outsider I don't know what avalon or bfl will do.

 Also pierrejo's point is valid sales will slow and AM can lower price.
judging by how fast the blades sell and what they resell for, I think they are priced fine.

as for the USB miners, I think either the price drops or the minimum drops.  But, they won't be doing that, so we'll just have to watch how it develops.  I think if the USB were priced at 1.25 btc, they would have been sold out by now.

Maybe they are sold out, who knows?
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