ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[BitThink]

BTC stocks are purely based on trust and there's no audit at all. Therefore, if friedcat want to get extra money, he can easily hide some profit and nobody will know. Nobody really knows how many chips, boards have been produced and what are the exact costs and profits.

BTC stocks are not like BTC itself, which is completely transparent and protected by the Math law. If we choose to hold BTC stocks, our money is completely in hands of others, and you can only do nothing other than trust the issuer. 

[michaelGedi]

there is absolutely nothing you can do if discus fish is perhaps another operation that anyone from AM is involved in... apart from not be involved in AM. That said, my opinion is that the speculation is healthy.

they have no responsiblity, apart from perhaps an ethical one, to NOT carry out such an operation with their own profits, equipment, time and knowledge.

[dvdrewritable]

I don't think anyone should be surprised to see extremely low (or no) divs until Gen3 rolls out.

The thing I worry about most is if FC is still 100% committed to AM or if he has developed a competing side-business that is unencumbered by external shareholders.

I know FC denied involvement. But the competitor similarities in hardware (Bitmain) and in mining behavior (Discus Fish) remain striking. So I feel we've only been told part of the story.

I've been thinking about this too, but what keeps from panicking too much is the amount of AsicMiner shares owned by Bitfountain. I think that screwing us keyboard shareholders would be one thing, but screwing the Bitfountain ones would be much more messier.

Who is Bitfountain, actually?  

And, if you worry that Discus Fish is FC's side business, why not worry that Discus Fish might actually be Bitfountain's side business?

a FC 'side business' -- '比特泉科技有限公司'  'Discus fish' is not

[MPOE-PR]

The only people who think switching over to decentralized exchanges is a bad idea are people who are heavily invested in centralized exchanges.

Think about all the hassle and headaches that have been caused by centralized exchanges:

glbse
btct.co
bitfunder

- ddos attacks

- relatively high fees for trading, withdrawing money

- long delays on withdraws

- exchanges asking for driver's license scans and other identifying information

- government intervention

The market will move towards decentralized exchanges, it is inevitable.

You're not talking about centralized exchanges, you're talking about idiocy pretending that a website theme and a lot of pretense will change nonsense into something real. Shockingly, that doesn't work. It won't work regardless of whatever new context you try to fit it in.

[DaFockBro]

The only people who think switching over to decentralized exchanges is a bad idea are people who are heavily invested in centralized exchanges.

Think about all the hassle and headaches that have been caused by centralized exchanges:

glbse
btct.co
bitfunder

- ddos attacks

- relatively high fees for trading, withdrawing money

- long delays on withdraws

- exchanges asking for driver's license scans and other identifying information

- government intervention

The market will move towards decentralized exchanges, it is inevitable.

You're not talking about centralized exchanges, you're talking about idiocy pretending that a website theme and a lot of pretense will change nonsense into something real. Shockingly, that doesn't work. It won't work regardless of whatever new context you try to fit it in.

Your response to my post does not make sense.

These were/are centralized bitcoin security exchanges:
glbse
btct.co
bitfunder

I was talking about centralized exchanges.

[jimmothy]

The only people who think switching over to decentralized exchanges is a bad idea are people who are heavily invested in centralized exchanges.

Think about all the hassle and headaches that have been caused by centralized exchanges:

glbse
btct.co
bitfunder

- ddos attacks

- relatively high fees for trading, withdrawing money

- long delays on withdraws

- exchanges asking for driver's license scans and other identifying information

- government intervention

The market will move towards decentralized exchanges, it is inevitable.

You're not talking about centralized exchanges, you're talking about idiocy pretending that a website theme and a lot of pretense will change nonsense into something real. Shockingly, that doesn't work. It won't work regardless of whatever new context you try to fit it in.

Your response to my post does not make sense.

These were/are centralized bitcoin security exchanges:
glbse
btct.co
bitfunder

I was talking about centralized exchanges.

To translate mpoe pr's post:

"Any centralized exchange besides mpex is a pretend play exchange because they don't have 30btc registration fees and an options trading bot. Stop using useful stock trading services like Havelock and give us your money because we are smarter than you." - mpoe pr


Anyone with an IQ above 13 could see that decentralized exchanges would essentially make the only feature mpex offers (secure trading) obsolete. This ist assuming there are even still people who think mpex has a solid system for trading.

[glendall]

IT's been shown time after time that centralized exchanges are the biggest weakness in the world of bitcoin, and the most easily shut down by the governments or scam.

They are the weak link in the bitcoin infrastructure.  It is almost a shame that bitcoin is P2P technology shackled to centralized exchanges.

How many exchanges have gone under, been shutdown, or been scams? Or hacked? Gox just locked up withdrawals. I lost money to Ukyo/ Bitfunder who gambled users deposits away.

I WAY rather trust software of a decentralized exchange than some exchange in Belarus that may at any day close.

Decentralized exchanges / colored coins are the only way to go.  I think they are inevitable.  But the good news for folks who don't care for them: centralized exchanges will still exist. So if you choose to go the more risky route of using a centralized exchange over a decentralized one, you will have that option.

[MPOE-PR]

Your response to my post does not make sense.

These were/are centralized bitcoin security exchanges:
glbse
btct.co
bitfunder

I was talking about centralized exchanges.

It doesn't make sense to you because you've decided that three horribly managed play-pretend operations were actual exchanges.

They weren't.

The government has nothing to do with it.

The problem isn't centralization. The problem is idiots, and that problem will follow you anywhere so long as you've got idiots involved. There's ample proof in my anthology link, if somehow your independent experience has failed to reveal to you this very basic fact of life.

[ZephramC]

To translate mpoe pr's post:

"Any centralized exchange besides mpex is a pretend play exchange because they don't have 30btc registration fees and an options trading bot. Stop using useful stock trading services like Havelock and give us your money because we are smarter than you." - mpoe pr


Anyone with an IQ above 13 could see that decentralized exchanges would essentially make the only feature mpex offers (secure trading) obsolete. This ist assuming there are even still people who think mpex has a solid system for trading.

I am almost sure that it is possible to find at least one person with IQ 15 who would not see (nor understand) this.

[Sledge]

The problem isn't centralization. The problem is idiots, and that problem will follow you anywhere so long as you've got idiots involved. There's ample proof in my anthology link, if somehow your independent experience has failed to reveal to you this very basic fact of life.

I think of all the smart asses on the Internet that I have see in the past few years, and you are the one with the biggest ego and superiority complex.

Everyone is an idiot to you. Congratulations. In a way, I can't blame you, when there are people handing you 30 BTC just to register on your exchange.

[Lohoris]

when there are people handing you 30 BTC just to register on your exchange.

Are there?

I strongly doubt anyone registered there during the last one or two years.

[supert]

The problem isn't centralization. The problem is idiots

Same problem. Trust.

[Jutarul]

This is to inform that friedcat met with the board yesterday and provided some updates.

General Update
==========

The engineering team is working on increasing overall power and cost efficiency, which includes all aspects of keeping the miners running sustainably. Some of the cost efficiency aspects cover questions of insourcing vs. outsourcing which are being looked at. In highly integrated locations like China, outsourcing seems to be beneficial. If that trend continues, AM may be best served by choosing a "lean" operation.

The recent policy changes in China are less of a concern, because the operation is very mobile and can re-establish itself elsewhere quickly. The tape-out deadline has moved into the mid of Feb. The new deadline for an extensive report to the board as been moved to the end of this month. Expect an updated release of the balance sheet to the public at the same time.

Friedcat also indicated to release an updated product report after tape-out, which contains more technical details. The initial batch will be "relatively" small, but the chip production capacity can be described as "competitive", which should bring AM back on the scene quickly. Any bottleneck will likely not be the silicon, which means that partnerships become more important.

Specific Updates
===========

a ) Share transfer processing: Some of the share transfer requests were not processed for an extended time. Apparently the process is automized, but some emails get filtered into the Spam folder, so friedcat wasn't aware of the issue. If share transfer requests for any reason do not get processed, please inform one of the known board members to escalate the issue. It was recommended to code a submission website to remove the diversity in request submission.

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

2) In the new chips announcement, friedcat stated that the chip prices will be based in USD. A rising BTC price would thus mean lower dividends - since less BTC to pay the dividends can be bought from the incoming payments. What happens when the BTC price - for example - doubles, will the price of the chips be adjusted accordingly?
re 2) The price might be adjusted, but if possible it's better to enlarge the order size without making significantly price adjustments.

3) A continuation of mining would be an excellent hedge against a rising price of BTC if done by a company with access to chips at almost zero cost - like ASICMiner. How probable is a continuation of mining done directly by ASICMiner (or franchisees) and how will this be decided?
re 3) Hedging against rising price of BTC is better implemented as buying Bitcoins as company assets and then pay them as dividends or reserve them.

4) What is the currently anticipated long-term strategy for ASICMiner after the 3rd generation?
re 4) Long-term strategy is to follow the step of Moore's Law, while squeeze all possible efficiency out of each stage of chip design and production.

5) What is the status and capacity of the immersion-cooling data center, and will it house some of the 3rd generation hardware used for mining?
re 5) Capacity is at least 1P. And yes it will be used.

Further Comment
============

Please note that some information is subject to change, as this is a very agile business. Please be careful when speculating on company valuation. Also expect a saturation of the hardware market if BTC price starts declining or stagnating. This means that hardware companies will likely accumulate a large stock of unprocessed silicon, which provides opportunities for ventures which offer quick turnaround times between receiving silicon and putting devices online.

[Chris_Sabian]

Thanks for the update.  Good to here the news

[Melbustus]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

[jimmothy]

1ph immersion cooled datacenter sounds nice.

[asdfghj]

400 - 1600 PH * 0.49 - 0.9 $/Gh
= $200M - $800M
= 250k - 1M BTC

= .625 - 2.5 BTC/share

(Bitcoin value of sales drops as value of bitcoin increases.)

[jimmothy]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

[Jutarul]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.

[hdbuck]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.

400-1600PH/s overall target... A M A Z I N G  

edit: @jutarul thx for keeping us in the loop