ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Mabsark]

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What you are basically saying is that due to the complete lack of evidence of some event occurring, that event must have occurred. That's simply illogical. That's called FUD...

Sometimes lack of evidence to the contrary constitutes evidence.
Having never seen a pig flapping his wings, for instance, is evidence enough for me to make an assumption that pigs got none to flap.
Not FUD.

Well, given that you've never seen a pig flapping his wings because they don't have any wings to flap, do you then assume that pigs can fly? Nope.

[NotLambchop]

Lol, no.  I assume the pig is a flightless pig, destined to trot around on its trotters.
Just like I assume a publicly-traded company going mute while withholding dividends will end in tears for its investors.

And, if my opinion doesn't mean as much to you as it should, there's also this:

[DjPxH]

Lol, no.  I assume the pig is a flightless pig, destined to trot around on its trotters.
Just like I assume a publicly-traded company going mute while withholding dividends will end in tears for its investors.

And, if my opinion doesn't mean as much to you as it should, there's also this:

That chart speaks for itself. Thing also is: We've seen offers for gen 3 chips at about $ 0.35 / GH/s in early June from resellers. There have been rumors at the end of June that AM sells at about cost. Yes rumors, but they've been quite believable and no one has ever proven them to be wrong. If gen 3 was actually selling well, why would FC start to resort to such a great focus on mining again, which he didn't want to do as much anymore. Is there anything to BTCGarden's post that AM is indeed working on a 28nm design or is this just common anticipation of the next generation. Oh and last but not least: The questions haven't been answered for almost a month now, that worked better with the friendly pumpkin. Whoever chased him away, shame on you!

[hdbuck]

We've seen offers for gen 3 chips at about $ 0.35 / GH/s in early June from resellers

lol, you can do better.

gen3 may have not been as efficient as it was supposed to, but AM is doing their best not to sink in such a new and competitive environment with some very promising deals and partnerships. things take time thats all.
but i'd like some tiny winni update tho too.

edit: and that lambchopmyballs graph is utter BS it represent only a small unrepresentative part of AM shares. i dont give a damn about some noobs trading couple of shares every hour.

[DjPxH]

We've seen offers for gen 3 chips at about $ 0.35 / GH/s in early June from resellers

lol, you can do better.

gen3 may have not been as efficient as it was supposed to, but AM is doing their best not to sink in such a new and competitive environment with some very promising deals and partnerships. things take time thats all.
but i'd like some tiny winni update tho too.

edit: and that lambchopmyballs graph is utter BS it represent only a small unrepresentative part of AM shares. i dont give a damn about some noobs trading couple of shares every hour.

May 25th (delivery mid June), chips selling at 22CNY (2.2CNY / GH/s = $0.35): http://www.cybtc.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=7951&highlight=%E7%83%A4%E7%8C%AB
I though this was already accepted canon around here. We may speculate on 'selling at cost', but selling at $0.35 already in June is a fact.

[Mabsark]

That chart speaks for itself. Thing also is: We've seen offers for gen 3 chips at about $ 0.35 / GH/s in early June from resellers. There have been rumors at the end of June that AM sells at about cost. Yes rumors, but they've been quite believable and no one has ever proven them to be wrong. If gen 3 was actually selling well, why would FC start to resort to such a great focus on mining again, which he didn't want to do as much anymore. Is there anything to BTCGarden's post that AM is indeed working on a 28nm design or is this just common anticipation of the next generation. Oh and last but not least: The questions haven't been answered for almost a month now, that worked better with the friendly pumpkin. Whoever chased him away, shame on you!

The share price on Havelock is more representative of short term traders sentiment than it is of AM's value as a company.
Where did you hear that FC started to "resort to such a great focus on mining again, which he didn't want to do as much anymore." Please provide some evidence to backup these claims. I think that would make a lot of people happy as they've been asking for precisely that.
Yes AM is indeed working on a 28nm ASIC:

Brief Answers to Shareholder Questions

6) What is the progress on gen4?

It is 28nm and has two major improvements: the first one is to fix the design errors we had with 40nm (which made our silicon data two times worse than simulated data). We believe that 0.35W/G at rated speed of 400MHz would be achievable in 40nm if no mistakes were made before. The second one is the technology improvement from 40nm to 28nm in terms of density, speed and power.

We are on the stage of evaluating the final design choices by running the physical design flow on different settings.

20) What are the future plans and visions of Asicminer?

There will be at least two generations ahead. If future Bitcoin market cap allows there can be more. As we are keeping the chip design capability to grow with state-of-the-art technology as well as good channels with fabrication we can be flexible in terms of business mode be it chip-based or device-based.

[NotLambchop]

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edit: and that lambchopmyballs graph is utter BS it represent only a small unrepresentative part of AM shares. i dont give a damn about some noobs trading couple of shares every hour.

Seems like an opportunity for thinkin' feller like you!  Just buy through the order book 'till the "unrepresentative" price is representative again--stack yourself some serious cheddar!

Bitching about low prices is doing it wrong.

[cs54]

So while we're loitering in the information vacuum...do any believers out there feel like laying out their predictions for Gen 3 outcomes?

EDIT: Better yet, how about response predictions to the questions list?

There is a speculation thread for speculations.  Please try to keep this one as uncluttered as possible for news and clarification of that news.

Fair point Explorer, although tbh I was less interested in speculative opinions than in reminding people that these questions have been out for over 3 weeks now, to prompt a discussion about that without contributing to the FUD.

[hdbuck]

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edit: and that lambchopmyballs graph is utter BS it represent only a small unrepresentative part of AM shares. i dont give a damn about some noobs trading couple of shares every hour.

Seems like an opportunity for thinkin' feller like you!  Just buy through the order book 'till the "unrepresentative" price is representative again--stack yourself some serious cheddar!

Bitching about low prices is doing it wrong.

unrepresentative as of the volumes. not even 0,001% of total shares are moving daily. this is not how a representative price is set.
besides, im good, i have a stake in a real innovative asic manufacturer, with honest track records. AM is a one time opportunity & experience so let them do their job and enjoy the ride.
now  im done feeding you troll

[discobean]

ASICMiner exit strategy: Silence until the price falls to 0.08, press release for buyback at 0.1 queue cheering and then Havelock exit strategy: shutdown before payment released to shareholders.

[trek27]

ASICMiner exit strategy: Silence until the price falls to 0.08, press release for buyback at 0.1 queue cheering and then Havelock exit strategy: shutdown before payment released to shareholders.

Of course theoretically possible but very low probable because publicly held shares represent just 7.5% of all shares.

[glendall]

I just don't see the value of Asicminer anymore.  I've been around almost from the start, and recall seeing AM at over 4btc a share (and ya lost bunch of btc along the way, but no sour milk here.)

But now a days, just don't see a lot to be optimistic about. The company blew their first-mover advantage IMHO.  20% of mining market to lucky if they have 2%. First ASICs to a new gen chip that came about 6 months later than I expected, and just isn't as energy or cost effective as the competition. I don't follow this thread as much anymore but it seemed like they are having enough trouble getting rid of the chips at cost as opposed to making profit. 

It's crazy how quickly stuff changes in the world of bitcoin. I hope FC can turn it around but AM seems way overvalued to me, and the div potential looks really slight. 

[vortex1878]

I just don't see the value of Asicminer anymore.  I've been around almost from the start, and recall seeing AM at over 4btc a share (and ya lost bunch of btc along the way, but no sour milk here.)

But now a days, just don't see a lot to be optimistic about. The company blew their first-mover advantage IMHO.  20% of mining market to lucky if they have 2%. First ASICs to a new gen chip that came about 6 months later than I expected, and just isn't as energy or cost effective as the competition. I don't follow this thread as much anymore but it seemed like they are having enough trouble getting rid of the chips at cost as opposed to making profit. 

It's crazy how quickly stuff changes in the world of bitcoin. I hope FC can turn it around but AM seems way overvalued to me, and the div potential looks really slight. 

So why do you believe you can judge? Because things "seem"? 

[feifa]

hashratio's farm with AM Tube

[DjPxH]

hashratio's farm with AM Tube

One of the proves or indicators (yeah, it's difficult to provide proof, but if everything's pointing in one direction, it's naive to believe the contrary) that AM indeed focuses on mining again. Hashratio have always been closely related to AM, very closely. I've seen enough people discuss FC's franchising offer, i.e. that people host the hardware for shares as collateral, to be sure he has to resort to such things. BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s. Make it 10. The projections for selling all 60 PH/s gen 3 at $0.35 resulted in about 0.05 BTC/share. Not going to happen. Mabsark, show me the miners being sold that justify that quantity 

[jimmothy]

BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s.

Source?

[DjPxH]

BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s.

Source?

Only an overly generous guess. BTCGarden managed to sell a lot, yeah. They had sold like almost a PH a month ago. let's assume they now sold 3. With all their 400 GH/s machines, ROCKMINER needs to sell like 4000 machines to achieve a single PH. Lightning Asic seems to be stagnating ever since. They even have a in-stock-counter that moves about 5 pcs/week. I doubt they sold more than 100 TH/s. Who else is there? XBTec used to be the big hope for AM. Well, they've gone silent, and only have lowered (as in 'it got worse') their consumption expectations. They really seemed to have done the trick in optimizing the BE200. I'm having a hard time reaching even those estimated 6 PH/s. And that would only account for 1/10 of those 60 PH/s
Hashratio and franchised mining seems to be the final straw. And I can't believe that FC is dictating the terms there 

Please show me calculations that support more chips have been sold to manufacturers!

[feifa]

BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s.

Source?

Only an overly generous guess. BTCGarden managed to sell a lot, yeah. They had sold like almost a PH a month ago. let's assume they now sold 3. With all their 400 GH/s machines, ROCKMINER needs to sell like 4000 machines to achieve a single PH. Lightning Asic seems to be stagnating ever since. They even have a in-stock-counter that moves about 5 pcs/week. I doubt they sold more than 100 TH/s. Who else is there? XBTec used to be the big hope for AM. Well, they've gone silent, and only have lowered (as in 'it got worse') their consumption expectations. They really seemed to have done the trick in optimizing the BE200. I'm having a hard time reaching even those estimated 6 PH/s. And that would only account for 1/10 of those 60 PH/s
Hashratio and franchised mining seems to be the final straw. And I can't believe that FC is dictating the terms there 

Please show me calculations that support more chips have been sold to manufacturers!

Hashratio's CEO Zhaodong said the cost of AM Tube is 4000 CNY. As the hash chip(BE200) is the most expensive element of miner,
I guess hashratio is not the farnichised mining for AM now, It just buy AM BE200 at low price.
According Zhaodong's weibo, Hashratio consumes about 4-5P BE200 chips

[jimmothy]

BTCGarden, ROCKMINER, Lightning Asics, etc. combined only account for, say 6 PH/s.

Source?

Only an overly generous guess. BTCGarden managed to sell a lot, yeah. They had sold like almost a PH a month ago. let's assume they now sold 3. With all their 400 GH/s machines, ROCKMINER needs to sell like 4000 machines to achieve a single PH. Lightning Asic seems to be stagnating ever since. They even have a in-stock-counter that moves about 5 pcs/week. I doubt they sold more than 100 TH/s. Who else is there? XBTec used to be the big hope for AM. Well, they've gone silent, and only have lowered (as in 'it got worse') their consumption expectations. They really seemed to have done the trick in optimizing the BE200. I'm having a hard time reaching even those estimated 6 PH/s. And that would only account for 1/10 of those 60 PH/s
Hashratio and franchised mining seems to be the final straw. And I can't believe that FC is dictating the terms there 

Please show me calculations that support more chips have been sold to manufacturers!

Lightning asic was only reselling hashratio machines AFAIK.

Here are my estimates:

BTCgarden 3PH-5PH sales + 2PH self mining
Hashratio 1-5PH sales + 10-20PH self mining
Lightning asic 1-2PH self mining
Rockminer 2-3PH sales + 1-2PH self mining
xbtec 2-10PH self mining (Can't really go off their own numbers since they seem somewhat bad at estimations but they are deploying HW apparently)
Edentech ~1PH

AM mine 2-4PH (could be franchising/mining 20+ PH if they found a location with cheap electricity)

[jimmothy]

According Zhaodong's weibo, Hashratio consumes about 4-5P BE200 chips

Source?