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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914427 times)
minerpumpkin
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June 05, 2014, 02:41:25 PM
 #20521

Some are still waking up, I predict. Should be a nice surprise to wake up to given the last few weeks. Minerpumpkin, any chance you want to take a shot at speculating on some numbers now that FC has filled us in on some of the variables? Should be able to give us a cleaner looking crystal ball.

Sure! I'll just quick and dirty address what we may expect from those 60 PH/s.

60,000,000 GH/s * $0.35 (average, we have to remain careful and realistic) = $21m / 400,000 (shares) = $52.5/share * 2/3 (payout as shares, not retained) / $700 (BTC price - this may get dangerous) = BTC 0.05 / share for this batch in production (those 60 PH/s). Plus everything that comes after this of course, since it's not the total of gen 3. I guess we'll see BTC 0.1+ for all of gen 3, so with the old valuation we'd be at a reasonable share price of BTC 0.3.
This is pure conjecture given the numbers we just got and not meant as investment advice!!! Please make up your own mind!

I should have gotten into Bitcoin back in 1992...
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June 05, 2014, 02:42:15 PM
 #20522

A lot of weak hands will soon be using those same hands to facepalm today.
Thanks, FC.

ASICMINERTUBE
   
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June 05, 2014, 02:44:19 PM
 #20523


 Grin Already did. Anyone that has been around the block even once with ASICminer/FC knows there is no panic. Things are lost in translation and in internet forums.

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This is very true.  In Friedcat we trust

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June 05, 2014, 02:49:28 PM
 #20524

So, ASICMINER will be buying 30k BTC to pay shareholders? Time to buy BTC not shares Wink

Under development Modular UPGRADEABLE Miner (MUM). Looking for investors.
Changing one PCB with screwdriver and you have brand new miner in hand... Plug&Play, scalable from one module to thousands.
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June 05, 2014, 02:50:55 PM
 #20525

Thanks for the update FC.
Still, I believe the communication part should be not that hard.
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June 05, 2014, 02:55:24 PM
 #20526

Some are still waking up, I predict. Should be a nice surprise to wake up to given the last few weeks. Minerpumpkin, any chance you want to take a shot at speculating on some numbers now that FC has filled us in on some of the variables? Should be able to give us a cleaner looking crystal ball.

Sure! I'll just quick and dirty address what we may expect from those 60 PH/s.

60,000,000 GH/s * $0.35 (average, we have to remain careful and realistic) = $21m / 400,000 (shares) = $52.5/share * 2/3 (payout as shares, not retained) / $700 (BTC price - this may get dangerous) = BTC 0.05 / share for this batch in production (those 60 PH/s). Plus everything that comes after this of course, since it's not the total of gen 3. I guess we'll see BTC 0.1+ for all of gen 3, so with the old valuation we'd be at a reasonable share price of BTC 0.3.
This is pure conjecture given the numbers we just got and not meant as investment advice!!! Please make up your own mind!
If Btc prices rise, I believe there will be capacity to adjust chip pricing in USD terms.

Non-technical coin. Use OZC to intro coins to everyday aussies: http://ozziecoin.com
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June 05, 2014, 02:57:05 PM
 #20527

A lot of weak hands will soon be using those same hands to facepalm today.
Thanks, FC.

 Cheesy

fuck my weak hands, fuck the fudders, fuck buying back at a loss... and fuck me 60PH?


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shawshankinmate37927
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June 05, 2014, 02:58:44 PM
 #20528

So, ASICMINER will be buying 30k BTC to pay shareholders? Time to buy BTC not shares Wink

Would be nice if AM could sell a portion of the June batch for BTC instead of fiat.  Unless, of course, AM is able to get a better exchange rate than AM customers can get.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."   - Henry Ford
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June 05, 2014, 03:04:39 PM
 #20529

...I have never personally met the man, yet I trust him more than anyone else I've met in bitcoin land or anywhere else...

Amen Brother!  Let me hear you testify!


I testify that I judge a man by his actions and not his words. And FC has given me no reason to doubt him.

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June 05, 2014, 03:07:36 PM
 #20530

This is the post we have all been patiently waiting for. Thanks FC and to all the board members who provide clarity.
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June 05, 2014, 03:07:45 PM
 #20531

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.
shawshankinmate37927
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June 05, 2014, 03:12:03 PM
 #20532

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

We need the FUDsters to go crash the BTC price now.  Smiley

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."   - Henry Ford
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June 05, 2014, 03:20:22 PM
 #20533

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Forget to ask FC will they change the chip price based on BTC price. It may sound silly, but I don't think the chip price is so flexible. That is a huge risk, because BTC price can be really crazy.
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June 05, 2014, 03:23:04 PM
 #20534

This is the best possible outcome - look back at the balance sheet guys. Your div predictions are too low above.


1) On the Balance Sheet, approximately how many chips does the current Inventory (Products + Materials + Masks) represent?
A little less than 60P of wafers, most of which are on their final stages of production. The materials consist mainly of lead frames for packaging. The mask is re-usable for years if there are continuing demands for the corresponding wafers.

12) What is the cash flow ratio between the amount of Chips Fabricated and the percentage of the batch that is dedicated to cost.
There are no orders dedicated to cost in the short time. So it's 1:0.

minerpumpkin
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June 05, 2014, 03:23:08 PM
 #20535

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Basically correct, but I believe we can't sell for $0.5/GH/s in the future. That batch will be sold within the next 1.5 months, so we'll achieve a price of about $0.35/GH/s. And we should brace for a price above $700. Also, FC's wording seems to suggest that we won't adjust the chip price that much but rather sell more chips.

My calculation for those interested: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7148348#msg7148348

I should have gotten into Bitcoin back in 1992...
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June 05, 2014, 03:28:18 PM
 #20536

fc "kind of" answered to the BTC/USD issue. Although I honestly don't really get what he means with that.

(...)

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

(...)
whalezy
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June 05, 2014, 03:31:44 PM
 #20537

fc "kind of" answered to the BTC/USD issue. Although I honestly don't really get what he means with that.

(...)

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

(...)

That means the market demand for Gen3, it depends on the BTC price. With a higher BTC price, we can expect a higher inventory turnover. For $700/BTC, it's 1-1.5.
vortex1878
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June 05, 2014, 03:32:45 PM
 #20538

fc "kind of" answered to the BTC/USD issue. Although I honestly don't really get what he means with that.

(...)

2) How many months of inventory do you estimate that represents?
Depending on the Bitcoin price. Under this price we expect it to be 1-1.5.

(...)

That means the market demand for Gen3, it depends on the BTC price. With a higher BTC price, we can expect a higher inventory turnover. For $700/BTC, it's 1-1.5.


That makes sense. Thank you.
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June 05, 2014, 03:46:10 PM
 #20539

Sales price will be adjusted if BTC rises.

So if we link the current price of 0,5$ to the current BTC price of 666$ we get a to-date sales price of 0.00075 BTC/G.

Using a factor of 0.9 for an average future price and retaining 1/3 for Gen4, I come to a gross-income per share of 0.06756757 BTC for the 60P.

Forget to ask FC will they change the chip price based on BTC price. It may sound silly, but I don't think the chip price is so flexible. That is a huge risk, because BTC price can be really crazy.

Maybe we can suggest a BTC buy/sell program where "X" amount of BTC is bought or sold each day to average prices and maintain a BTC to USD ratio.

Homo doctus is se semper divitias habet
shawshankinmate37927
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June 05, 2014, 04:01:10 PM
 #20540

Maybe we can suggest a BTC buy/sell program where "X" amount of BTC is bought or sold each day to average prices and maintain a BTC to USD ratio.

Controlling the USD/BTC exchange rate is far beyond AM's control.  All they can do is raise or lower their own risk of exposure.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."   - Henry Ford
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