ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Ozziecoin]

Everyone, please provide your guess on how many Btcs AM will be able to mine in the next 6 months.  List below.

5% of the blocks found averaged over a year
The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 50 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).
Now The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 25 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).

So 52500 a year on average
5% of that a year is 2625 Blocks a Year
2625 Blocks * 25 BTC = 65625 BTC

65625 BTC/ 400,000 Shares = 0.1640625 BTC/Share Per Annum

So if AM reaches 30% hash peak, which maybe means 15% of blocks over a Year = 196,875 Btcs.  Divide by 400,000 Shares = 0.49 Btc/Share per annum.  I guess that is a possible high point. We can expect somewhere between 0.16 to 0.49 Btc per share in divs (less costs of course).

BTW, it appears to me that 99.99% of stuff on this thread has been speculation.

[dmcdad]

We can expect somewhere between 0.16 to 0.49 Btc per share in divs (less costs of course).

The costs is pretty important at this (later) stage in the game. The number of blades needed to capture 5% to 30% of the coins is huge, so even if electricity is cheap the costs involved for the PSUs, PCBs, facilities, etc., is going to be significant. Way more significant than when AM previously had 5%+ of the total hash power.

A silver lining is that if FC does build up significant mining capability now (either directly or through franchising), he'll be sitting in a very good position to deploy gen4 blades. If they come in as efficient as he hopes then things could get very interesting.

[dhenson]

Everyone, please provide your guess on how many Btcs AM will be able to mine in the next 6 months.  List below.

5% of the blocks found averaged over a year
The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 50 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).
Now The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 25 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).

So 52500 a year on average
5% of that a year is 2625 Blocks a Year
2625 Blocks * 25 BTC = 65625 BTC

65625 BTC/ 400,000 Shares = 0.1640625 BTC/Share Per Annum

So if AM reaches 30% hash peak, which maybe means 15% of blocks over a Year = 196,875 Btcs.  Divide by 400,000 Shares = 0.49 Btc/Share per annum.  I guess that is a possible high point. We can expect somewhere between 0.16 to 0.49 Btc per share in divs (less costs of course).

BTW, it appears to me that 99.99% of stuff on this thread has been speculation.

Has anyone totaled the Gen 3 public sales to estimate what could possibly be remaining from the original 60P?  It seems that would be more constructive than simply pulling 5%/10%/30% numbers out of thin air.

[Ozziecoin]

Everyone, please provide your guess on how many Btcs AM will be able to mine in the next 6 months.  List below.

5% of the blocks found averaged over a year
The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 50 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).
Now The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 25 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).

So 52500 a year on average
5% of that a year is 2625 Blocks a Year
2625 Blocks * 25 BTC = 65625 BTC

65625 BTC/ 400,000 Shares = 0.1640625 BTC/Share Per Annum

So if AM reaches 30% hash peak, which maybe means 15% of blocks over a Year = 196,875 Btcs.  Divide by 400,000 Shares = 0.49 Btc/Share per annum.  I guess that is a possible high point. We can expect somewhere between 0.16 to 0.49 Btc per share in divs (less costs of course).

BTW, it appears to me that 99.99% of stuff on this thread has been speculation.

Has anyone totaled the Gen 3 public sales to estimate what could possibly be remaining from the original 60P?  It seems that would be more constructive than simply pulling 5%/10%/30% numbers out of thin air.

Pretty sure FC said he wants to reach comparable hashrate as 2013. i.e. Doesn't matter what he has sold to date.

[Chris_Sabian]

Everyone, please provide your guess on how many Btcs AM will be able to mine in the next 6 months.  List below.

5% of the blocks found averaged over a year
The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 50 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).
Now The number of Bitcoins generated per block starts at 25 and is halved every 210,000 blocks (about four years).

So 52500 a year on average
5% of that a year is 2625 Blocks a Year
2625 Blocks * 25 BTC = 65625 BTC

65625 BTC/ 400,000 Shares = 0.1640625 BTC/Share Per Annum

So if AM reaches 30% hash peak, which maybe means 15% of blocks over a Year = 196,875 Btcs.  Divide by 400,000 Shares = 0.49 Btc/Share per annum.  I guess that is a possible high point. We can expect somewhere between 0.16 to 0.49 Btc per share in divs (less costs of course).

BTW, it appears to me that 99.99% of stuff on this thread has been speculation.

Has anyone totaled the Gen 3 public sales to estimate what could possibly be remaining from the original 60P?  It seems that would be more constructive than simply pulling 5%/10%/30% numbers out of thin air.

Pretty sure FC said he wants to reach comparable hashrate as 2013. i.e. Doesn't matter what he has sold to date.

I suppose that the question would be what hashrate in 2013 because it went from 0-33% global hashrate?

[Swordsoffreedom]

I suppose that the question would be what hashrate in 2013 because it went from 0-33% global hashrate?

Just to clarify that Friedcat said the average hashrate percentage similar to 2013
So that would be to scale with the present hashrate not the hashrate in 2013
Perhaps go with the median

[Zubilica]

So , i guess that board meeting went well ) 0.35 BTC/share says it all

[Fordee]

 ..  Yup...   someone is it in for more than just quick div's, or they would just buy up AM100s... the spread right now is huge..

  Friedcat must have some spectacular news... Can't wait for the August Salon...

[freedomno1]

..  Yup...   someone is it in for more than just quick div's, or they would just buy up AM100s... the spread right now is huge..

  Friedcat must have some spectacular news... Can't wait for the August Salon...

The market is more or less waiting a few days for the press conference from Friedcat
So pretty much a standby to evaluate where to go
Hmm although I just noticed it went to 0.35 maybe it was good news.

[empoweoqwj]

..  Yup...   someone is it in for more than just quick div's, or they would just buy up AM100s... the spread right now is huge..

  Friedcat must have some spectacular news... Can't wait for the August Salon...

The market is more or less waiting a few days for the press conference from Friedcat
So pretty much a standby to evaluate where to go
Hmm although I just noticed it went to 0.35 maybe it was good news.

Back down to 0.30 lol

I think you are right though. The August 2nd  conference will reveal much. The spread is there because people are currently speculating in a near vacuum.

Lots of "investors" appear to be manic-depressive in nature though. No news for a few weeks and they get all depressed and sell out for IPO amounts. FC opens his mouth and the price doubles, and we are back to FC for president, and going to dominate the market again.

[Fordee]

 ....  all forgetting that it was over .40 just a little while back in May, before a huge plummet/panic... 

   Even though a lot of people seem to still want out, I think .40 is still a cheap price, considering most of that will come back in div's...   So it's essentially like buying stock in the next Google, for next to free (after accounting for div's...)..

   I kind of laugh that in every companies rush to make a .28 chip, they all ran into massive problems with spec's... speed/efficency/etc..and the need for lots of fancy cooling..   No point wasting extra cash to make a 2nd mask and fix the errors..     By the time FC's  Gen4 arrives, it'll be damn near perfect, and I won't be able to afford shares..

  'Grabbing popcorn and waiting for August'.

[empoweoqwj]

....  all forgetting that it was over .40 just a little while back in May, before a huge plummet/panic... 

   Even though a lot of people seem to still want out, I think .40 is still a cheap price, considering most of that will come back in div's...   So it's essentially like buying stock in the next Google, for next to free (after accounting for div's...)..

   I kind of laugh that in every companies rush to make a .28 chip, they all ran into massive problems with spec's... speed/efficency/etc..and the need for lots of fancy cooling..   No point wasting extra cash to make a 2nd mask and fix the errors..     By the time FC's  Gen4 arrives, it'll be damn near perfect, and I won't be able to afford shares..

  'Grabbing popcorn and waiting for August'.

FC ran into efficiency problems with his Gen3 .40 chips, and that was after abandoning the earlier attempt at Gen2 ...... so AM aren't immune to chip problems at all. Will Gen4 chips be "damn near perfect"? Love to think so, but recent performance suggests its unlikely. But I'm ever hopeful (delusional?) 

[dhenson]

I'm going to cross-post this here:

This ID is in charge of the sales of AM-GEN3-MINERS.

Our official-miners are coming soon.

All resellers interested in it please msg us for more info.

Phasebird,

Are you an official employee of bitfountain/Asicminer?  

He is.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=715382.msg8079873#msg8079873

Perhaps I could have worded my post more clearly.  Shareholders have been asking for Friedcat to appoint a community liaison for a long time.  It would appear that we may finally have been granted one, but yet it is not widely known and that liaison has not introduced himself to the main thread.  It would appear that not many know he is even here.

This is not the thread for this discussion so I will end by simply suggesting that Phasebird make his position known and give us some idea of the scope of his responsibilities.  It is possible that he is simply as friedcat said, responsible for the re-seller communication and questions regarding the meetup.

Does anyone else have any information on Phasebird and the role he/she plays at Bitfountain? 

[freedomno1]

..  Yup...   someone is it in for more than just quick div's, or they would just buy up AM100s... the spread right now is huge..

  Friedcat must have some spectacular news... Can't wait for the August Salon...

The market is more or less waiting a few days for the press conference from Friedcat
So pretty much a standby to evaluate where to go
Hmm although I just noticed it went to 0.35 maybe it was good news.

Back down to 0.30 lol

I think you are right though. The August 2nd  conference will reveal much. The spread is there because people are currently speculating in a near vacuum.

Lots of "investors" appear to be manic-depressive in nature though. No news for a few weeks and they get all depressed and sell out for IPO amounts. FC opens his mouth and the price doubles, and we are back to FC for president, and going to dominate the market again.

True enough but Friedcat is not one for very bold statements so thats probably got a bit to do with it.
That and most new investors came in when it was just going down and down and down lol...
Anyways that spread is there for a reason between the manic depressive bears (lol) and the ones who see some hope at the end of the long tunnel we've been in pretty much have a polarized market.

Well as fordee noted were retesting May 2014 lol.
(And I think April 2013 ha-ha) Can't recall btct charts those were ages ago and havelock put theirs up in May 2013
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM100

[Lincoln6Echo]

last trade on Havelock for AM1 was 0.3240. Nice 

New golden buy indicator for AM:

Buy when lophie annouces to exit! You will double your Coins in no time 

[ensurance982]

I'm going to cross-post this here:

This ID is in charge of the sales of AM-GEN3-MINERS.

Our official-miners are coming soon.

All resellers interested in it please msg us for more info.

Phasebird,

Are you an official employee of bitfountain/Asicminer?  

He is.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=715382.msg8079873#msg8079873

Perhaps I could have worded my post more clearly.  Shareholders have been asking for Friedcat to appoint a community liaison for a long time.  It would appear that we may finally have been granted one, but yet it is not widely known and that liaison has not introduced himself to the main thread.  It would appear that not many know he is even here.

This is not the thread for this discussion so I will end by simply suggesting that Phasebird make his position known and give us some idea of the scope of his responsibilities.  It is possible that he is simply as friedcat said, responsible for the re-seller communication and questions regarding the meetup.

Does anyone else have any information on Phasebird and the role he/she plays at Bitfountain? 

Na, would be interested in some information, as well. Seems to have registered on May 30. Just when the financial report of horror came in

[BitThink]

Am I the only one who interpret FC's words as "finally we failed in selling most of our chips, and now we have to change our plan to self mine and sell our own mining machine." Do you know how much value has been wasted compared with self mining or selling machines in the first place?

[elasticband]

Am I the only one who interpret FC's words as "finally we failed in selling most of our chips, and now we have to change our plan to self mine and sell our own mining machine." Do you know how much value has been wasted compared with self mining or selling machines in the first place?

Probably yes the only one, as i would say you are wrong. The plan was always to try and maximize time and profits by initially selling chips, to a point it was either easier to set up self mining again or a point sales had reduced OUR cost per miner significantly..... a bit like all the other mining companies do, take preorders, set up a mega farm and mine the magic internet gold out of the network for cheap with customers money.... *cough* KFC *cough*

[Ozziecoin]

Am I the only one who interpret FC's words as "finally we failed in selling most of our chips, and now we have to change our plan to self mine and sell our own mining machine." Do you know how much value has been wasted compared with self mining or selling machines in the first place?

I believe the chips are hot off the press. I don't know how much value has been lost. Do you know?

[necro_nemesis]

I believe FC gave the market the proper opportunity to absorb the product before this change in direction. I also believe he made it quite clear that this was a possible outcome. My preference is to see a sustainable business model that reinvests in maintaining a sizeable percentage of the network as equipment sales margins will only diminish unless there is a profound rise in the price of BTC or something profoundly cracks the current ASIC cost/efficiency situation to be highly profitable for a short term. That term being only as long as it takes for the competition to step up or the manufacturer elects to use their own equipment.

I suspect shares may be making their way to steady hands with what appears to be a longer term strategy then some had believed. Holding ground with a percentage of the network in a position of profitability appears to be a favorable option when you are benefitting from working at the most competitive costs. AM has deep enough pockets to achieve this and is already in possession of ASICs to make it happen.