New Diff thread Mar 22 to Apr. 5 not ready for prime time

[zekarsalih]

I am guessing +14%,  my opperation remains proffitable even with a 100% total increase in 4 months, so if it is anything less than that, I am still happy because of ROI. On the other hand, this sucks because we want bitcoin to grow. We are really losing momentum, and early adopters are even losing faith  but I am still sure Bitcoin is the next thing

[1714686126]

1714686126

[philipma1957]

I think the list is up to date


-5.01 to -5.25 open ----------------- Chris_Sabian

-4.01 to -4.25 Medow

 5 or six spots


-2.51 to   -2.75  tarmi--------------this was  corrected from -2.51 to -2.76
-2.26 to   -2.50   open ---Roadstress-------- this was corrected from -2.25 to -2.49
-2.01 to   -2.25  Mikestang--------- this was corrected from -2.00 to -2.25
-1.76 to   -2.00-----open-------------- Quickseller
-1.51 to   -1.75 edonkey
-1.26 to   -1.50--------open------------ valkir
-1.01  to  -1.25 philipma1957
-0.76  to  -1.00------open------------------- notlist3d
-0.51 to   -0.75  Jamphone
-0.26 to   -0.50 coinits

-0.01 to   -0.25  open------------------- MegaFall

0.00-------------- A4TECH
+0.01 to  +0.25 Amph
+0.26 to  +0.50 davejh
+0.51 to  +0.75 Kexkey
+0.76 to  +1.00 ezeminer
+1.01 to  +1.25 mavericklm
+1.26 to  +1.50  SimplisticStu
+1.51 to  +1.75  HerbPean

+1.76 to  +2.00 MegaFall-----------------A switch from (-0.01 to -0.25)
+2.01 to  +2.25 SunnyIgor

+2.26 to  +2.50 Open---------------- zebedee

+2.51 to  +2.75 Open---------------- alh
+2.76 to +3.00 Korbman
+3.01 to +3.25 tertius993
+3.26 to +3.50 jmumich------------------  A switch from (+1.76 to +2.00)
+3.51 to +3.75 wpt1wpt1 ------------this was corrected from +3.51 to +3.76%
+3.76 to +4.00 tlhIlwI
+4.01 to +4.25 Open------------------------ buyandhold

+5.01 to +5.25 Chris_Sabian --------------A switch from (-5.01 to -5.25)
+5.26 to +5.50 RealMalatesta
+5.76 to +6.00 alh  ------------------------A switch from (+2.51 to +2.75)
+6.01 to +6.25 freedomno1


+7.76 to +8.00 armedmilitia
+8.51 to +8.75 zebedee--------------------A switch from (+2.26 to +2.50)
+8.76 to +9.00 Last of the V8s
+9.51 to + 9.76 eretron
+9.76 to +10.00 buyandhold---------------A switch from (+4.01 to +4.25)
+10.01 to +10.25 valkir--------------------A switch from (-1.26 to -1.50)
+11.01 to +11.25 EMIF
+11.51 to +11.75 notlist3d-----------------A switch from (- 0.76 to - 1.00)
+12.26 to +12.50 adaseb------------corrected from 12.50  ----

+13.01 to +13.25 RoadStress--------------A Switch from (-2.26 to -2.50)---- and corrected to a .25 range

+13.76 to +14.00  zekarsalih
+14.76 to +15.00 lovenlifelarge ---corrected from +15.00

+ 15.01 to 15.25  Quickerseller-------------A Switch from (-1.76 to -2.00)
+18.51  to 18.75   shapeshift




https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+7.76%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+9.74%)   Under 10% !!


we have less then 1 day for the picks.
We all the changes I may have fucked up one or two of these.  Please check them today.  Good luck to us all with this jump we are going to need it.

coin price is 254 at coinbase.


https://www.coinbase.com/buys


Almost no time left to pick or switch.  2 hours and 7 minutes left but suchmoon makes final cut off not me.

[suchmoon]

Almost no time left to pick or switch.  2 hours and 7 minutes left but suchmoon makes final cut off not me.

Countdown clock here:

https://countingdownto.com/countdown/bitcointalk-difficulty-guess-countdown-clock

There is a bit of a grace period while I collect and review the final list but there is no reason to leave it for the last minute anyway. Make your entries or changes now.

[TheAnalogKid]

I'll take 4.01 - 4.25 for this round please.  I think the rate will fall over the next few days.

[notlist3d]

Google doc
9.52 slowly going down... not a lot still good though.

Bitwisdowm
Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,222,797,133 (+7.50%)
Adjust time:    After 1053 Blocks, About 6.6 days

So the two are getting closer to reaching each other.  And BTC down a few dollars at around 247.

[adaseb]

Google doc
9.52 slowly going down... not a lot still good though.

Bitwisdowm
Bitcoin Difficulty:    46,717,549,645
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,222,797,133 (+7.50%)
Adjust time:    After 1053 Blocks, About 6.6 days

So the two are getting closer to reaching each other.  And BTC down a few dollars at around 247.

Looks like today ended up flat. I guess it was "bad" luck for some of the pools.

[suchmoon]

FINAL LIST

New entries will not eligible for the reward anymore. Looks like we have a lot of empty spots - rollover is likely.

Please take a minute to find yourself in the list and check if your numbers are correct. Thank you.

[armedmilitia]

I've created a very similar discussion on the bitcoin mining subreddit.
I hope you don't mind phillip. There's 10k subscribers to that subreddit, so I figured a few people there don't have btctalk accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/30pz48/difficulty_speculation_thread_mar_22_apr_5/

[philipma1957]

I've created a very similar discussion on the bitcoin mining subreddit.
I hope you don't mind phillip. There's 10k subscribers to that subreddit, so I figured a few people there don't have btctalk accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/30pz48/difficulty_speculation_thread_mar_22_apr_5/

No worries.  Cross link us more the merrier.

Op topic with 943 blocks left here we stand

Price from https://www.coinbase.com/buys  = $245

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (+8.22%)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+9.59%)  lets hope this goes close to 7.77%

[notlist3d]

I've created a very similar discussion on the bitcoin mining subreddit.
I hope you don't mind phillip. There's 10k subscribers to that subreddit, so I figured a few people there don't have btctalk accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/30pz48/difficulty_speculation_thread_mar_22_apr_5/

No worries.  Cross link us more the merrier.

Op topic with 943 blocks left here we stand

Price from https://www.coinbase.com/buys  = $245

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (+8.22%)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+9.59%)  lets hope this goes close to 7.77%

At this point  I would be thrilled with a 7 anything.   I really don't want a 10 percent or near 10.

BTC price sure has not helped seems to keep a few dollars under 250 for most of this difficulty.

[ezeminer]

I've created a very similar discussion on the bitcoin mining subreddit.
I hope you don't mind phillip. There's 10k subscribers to that subreddit, so I figured a few people there don't have btctalk accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/30pz48/difficulty_speculation_thread_mar_22_apr_5/

No worries.  Cross link us more the merrier.

Op topic with 943 blocks left here we stand

Price from https://www.coinbase.com/buys  = $245

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (+8.22%)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+9.59%)  lets hope this goes close to 7.77%

At this point  I would be thrilled with a 7 anything.   I really don't want a 10 percent or near 10.

BTC price sure has not helped seems to keep a few dollars under 250 for most of this difficulty.

It was a nice run for a month or two for miners... *sobs over miners*

[notlist3d]

I've created a very similar discussion on the bitcoin mining subreddit.
I hope you don't mind phillip. There's 10k subscribers to that subreddit, so I figured a few people there don't have btctalk accounts.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMining/comments/30pz48/difficulty_speculation_thread_mar_22_apr_5/

No worries.  Cross link us more the merrier.

Op topic with 943 blocks left here we stand

Price from https://www.coinbase.com/buys  = $245

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty = (+8.22%)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+9.59%)  lets hope this goes close to 7.77%

At this point  I would be thrilled with a 7 anything.   I really don't want a 10 percent or near 10.

BTC price sure has not helped seems to keep a few dollars under 250 for most of this difficulty.

It was a nice run for a month or two for miners... *sobs over miners*

In my eyes the big thing is if the difficulty increase keeps on during next difficulty.  If it is some new gear we will see if one week they made a big batch, or if a couple weeks they are still bumping difficulty.

Part of me thinks its new gear.  And other part is not sure as I would think something would have leaked on forums, or a article or something.

[lovenlifelarge]

Upto 7.40% as of today

[philipma1957]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+8.42%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+7.35%)

www.coinbase.com

Btc = 245 USD

[Amph]

so it rised so much at the end 9%+?

can we do another prediction until april 5 right?

[notlist3d]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+8.42%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+7.35%)

www.coinbase.com

Btc = 245 USD

Spreadsheet is showing 7.91 right now.  Maybe we can get mid 7's.  Considering we had a negative the change before that would not be a huge loss.

I still wish I knew what caused this jump.  If it is new chips or still old stuff being made.

[adaseb]

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

[philipma1957]

so it rised so much at the end 9%+?

can we do another prediction until april 5 right?

I will do a new thread for the next diff.  I also believe Suchmoon will fund the promo at least 3 more times.

Current numbers

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

(+7.96%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(+6.69%)


https://www.coinbase.com/charts

245 USD a btc


@notlist3d

  I am certain a farm was put online or upgraded.  The network is so big now that sales can't drive diff up that easy.   

340ph to 365ph is around 7.35% 

340ph to 370ph is  about  8.88%    so a 25 to 30 ph jump is in the works.

No way that many s-5's were sold and delivered
Or avalon 4.1's either.

So knc and bitfury have both been talking better chips for months.  I have to think one of them turned off old gear last jump and upgraded their farm this jump.

[suchmoon]

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

Antpool still seems to be doing better than its supposed to (green line is the "supposed to").



So I'm gonna say - variance . Bitcoinwisdom charts are diving down. The spike was tall and wide so it's definitely going have an impact on this cycle's difficulty, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 10%.

[philipma1957]

Finally some "bad" luck with some pools. Yesterday was flat. And today is -15%

Antpool still seems to be doing better than its supposed to (green line is the "supposed to").



So I'm gonna say - variance . Bitcoinwisdom charts are diving down. The spike was tall and wide so it's definitely going have an impact on this cycle's difficulty, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 10%.

Well hot streaks can happen.  When I used to play the ponies
 I picked 4  horses in 4 consecutive  races
 everyone paid 22 to 28 bucks  for  a 2 buck bet.

Picking 4 winning 10 to 1 shots  at a race track is not the same as your example above , but I am sure it is difficult to do.

I believe it was an upgrade of a farm and some good luck stacked in on that.