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1061  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Ukrainians declared war against the 13 Terrorist European Bloodlines on: January 24, 2014, 10:01:38 PM
Why can't people protest against governments simply because they are rejecting corruption, rigged elections, human rights abuses, public servant cronyism, stealth tax by inflation, out-of-control surveillance apparatus?

Isn't that enough already?
1062  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 23, 2014, 08:38:26 PM

This plays out one of two ways. If the PBOC allows loads of small banks and lenders to go bust then this is positive for CNY as money become scarce, prices (and assets) face downward pressure. Or, if the PBOC caves in (as usual) and prints a few more trillion CNY to bail out banks then this is negative for CNY as the system is flooded with more cash, prices rise, Bitcoin rises too.

1063  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 23, 2014, 08:57:58 AM
Yer dreaming. I watch these shows on cable TV of these schmucks working their asses off mining gold in AK, the Yukon and even offshore to mine gold at $1200/oz.  if the price doubles, every swinging dick with a shovel and a gleam in his eye will be out there with them. Gold WAS money. real money. free market money. It's easily recognizable, fungible, divisible portable and scarce. Bitcoin is MORE fungible, recognizable, divisible, portable and scarce. There's enough gold on the planet to cover the surface eight feet thick. You wanna dig it out of one hole, put it in another and pay someone to guard it. Good luck with that. It was awesome 18th century technology, but this is the 21st century.

We are never going back to a gold standard. I hate to agree with the asshole Kenesians, but they're right on this. You might use it like Goat does to trade in some mountain village in Burma, but in the real world you live in, it's good for speaker plugs and trinkets. Five thousand years was a good run. It's over. over. We used horses for five thousand years too.  


Yep. Took me a long time to see that too. The reason why gold cannot be a principal currency in daily use ever again is because it is so unwieldy for face-to-face transactions and can't be used for remote transactions, which are most, by value in a modern economy. A gold-backed debit card is very nice, but who can trust someone else with their gold? Even the German government can't get its gold back.

So fiat is needed, was needed until recently when crypto was invented.
1064  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fractional Reserve Banking Approach on the Table for Corrupting Bitcoin Network? on: January 23, 2014, 07:23:30 AM
FRB only works because "credit money", created from loans (currency as debt), is fully fungible with deposit currency and government printed fiat currency.

FRB under a gold standard requires that banks which lend irresponsibly (over 100% of capital) should face bankruptcy if too many loans go bad. This did create a lot of booms and busts in the 19th Century, although living standards continually improved and commerce thrived. Central banking is the reason the gold standard broke down, because central banks backstop retail and merchant banks with printed money which rapidly outpaces the amount of central gold holdings. Central banks create greater systemic risk, but also persist because they fund spendthift politicians in government which inevitably fall victim to the siren song of buying votes with taxpayers money in order to win re-election.

Bitcoin makes FRB obsolete because credit money is no longer fungible with bitcoin savings. A bitcoin bank which lends out bitcoins can't pretend to still own them as assets. It will have bitcoin-denominated loans, but these will be clearly promissory amounts not reflected in the blockchain. Loans may exist in a separate blockchain, or as smart property amounts, but they cannot be confused as bitcoins.

Bitcoin also makes central banking obsolete as bitcoin banks cannot be backstopped with printed money.


1065  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: BitcoinAverage.com - independent bitcoin price on: January 21, 2014, 12:02:25 AM
This has me thinking ..couldn't the Chinese Gov't Use the exchanges as pawns and put through fake sell orders?

Reminds me of precious metals markets where there are claims of naked short selling to manipulate the market.

This could be a reason Chinese Gov't Keep Markets alive...so they could manipulate it?

Nothing like a good conspiracy theory on a Sunday Afternoon.

 Shocked

Perhaps there should be a filter to exclude markets that are not truly liquid? Like the old Mt. Gox Filter?


Hmm, this is an complex question. On one hand - we are strongly against creating custom filters that will allow everyone to create random prices based on their personal preferences. Old MtGox filter was a forced compromise I don't really want to get back to.
On the other hand - I see this as our responsibility to react on suspicious behaviour and potentially filter out unfair market players.

If we will decide to take away certain exchanges - we need to have a good ground for this decision.
Is there any reliable and ideally measurable way to recognize faked volume or price data?

Alex at BitcoinAverage

The TBTF bank fx system I used to work on many years ago would take a feed from many sources and discard the outliers before averaging to get the rate we used for internal valuations.

In some ways less is more. Consider Bitstamp and BTC-e at the time of this post, $826.26 & 829, are trading within $3 of each other. But interestingly Huobi shows 5015 which is $828.9 (using USDCNY=6.05)

So these three exchanges alone are giving a strong market price which could be converted to all other world currencies.

Likely most of the other exchanges are outliers due to low volume / illiquidity, fiat delays, excessive fees.
1066  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2014, 11:51:23 PM
Dogecoin... again... Can we somehow ban this word from this topic? All the time that shity coin...  Huh

Agreed. That coin is a toy.
1067  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox Trading at 15% premium over everywhere else! on: January 20, 2014, 11:46:21 PM

Was 10%  diff for a long time, now 15%, the market is not pricing in any improvement in Gox's position.

Full of horror stories,,,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0;topicseen

Gox looks like it is going down.

Market is basically telling everyone that they aint getting their money back from Gox and with those 15% premiums, anyone trying to extract their money now is going to take a 15% haircut. Ouch.

My brother has an account on Gox and if I thought this premium would come back down to normal 6-8% levels, then I would have a pretty decent arbitraging opportunity here myself. (Bitcoin to Gox, sell on Gox, wait for premiums to lower, Gox-bucks back into Bitcoin, Bitcoin cashed out on Stamp)

...but would it be arbitrage, or simply 'losing money'?

What no one knows is the final result of the US govt restrictions on MtGox. They may come through it, they may eventually close, which may also happen suddenly.
The problem is that MtGox has prior form for hanging onto money that, allegedly, should be handed over to others:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=260225.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=233666.0

Any thoughts on the effect on BTC price if they do go down?  Embarrassed

They were 80% of the market in mid-2011 and were shut for 8 days. The market continued from the prior price level. Now they at 8% of the market with little effect on the BTC value.
1068  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gox Trading at 15% premium over everywhere else! on: January 20, 2014, 11:12:39 PM
The record high was 30% or even higher (briefly), I recall. This is nothing new, and the premium has mysteriously drifted down or up and stayed embedded in one area for longer times.

There was a chart portraying the % difference between exchanges over time. Anyone got it?

Ok, forgive my ignorance as I have only really been paying attention to chart developments for the past couple of months.

...but certainly during the run up, Gox would be between 8-6% ahead of Stamp. Gox peaked at 1240, Stamp was 1160.



Was 10%  diff for a long time, now 15%, the market is not pricing in any improvement in Gox's position.

Full of horror stories,,,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0;topicseen
1069  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2014, 09:16:59 PM
but what if china is not what is keeping the market down? this has been my thinking all along...

what if bears are bearish for no particular reason  Shocked

 Wink


What if the bears are only pretending to be bearish, scaring people to sell, so they can buy in cheaper as they are really all bulls!
1070  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: maximum unconfirmed transactions on: January 18, 2014, 07:03:30 AM
I hunted around some but didn't find a topic documenting maximum unconfirmed transactions https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions.  I've watched for only a short while and saw it peak around 2,690 just before block 280873 was added to the chain (thank you Slush) after some 48 minutes had elapsed from the previous block.

Little things like this entertain me.  What is the maximum anyone has observed so far?

There was 11,979 pending on April 8th last year. I think it was a (failed) spam attack.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/93641348@N04/8629120233/

1071  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: January 18, 2014, 05:19:27 AM
Shouldn't Bitpay be threatened? Sounds like their business model depends on Gox's.

I am sure by now that BitPay would have robust links to all the major exchanges.
1072  Economy / Economics / Re: My bank account's got robbed by European Commission. Over 700k is lost. on: January 17, 2014, 09:14:20 PM
Two recent events in particular show that the US is a pale shadow of the freedom-loving law-abiding democracy founded in 1776:

1). Tapper lying to congress and getting away with it.
2). Corzine mixing client and prop funds and getting away with it.

So, yes, in the wasteland ruins of the 1776 idealism money cannot be safe in any financial institution.
1073  Other / Off-topic / Re: Is Bitcoin part of the coming mark of the beast? on: January 17, 2014, 08:59:04 PM
I've thought about this. There are two characteristics that the biblical currency needs to have: 1. Controlled (like the dollar) and 2. Globally accepted (where bitcoin is going). So far no currencies qualify.

gold

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-17/german-gold-manipulation-blowback-escalates-deutsche-bank-exits-gold-price-fixing
1074  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin redistribution on: January 17, 2014, 08:23:37 AM
Given the political leanings of the country these days, when Bitcoin really explodes and the value of bitcoins goes through the roof, can y'all see something like this going down:

Reporter: Mr. President!  What do you think about the fact that 80% of bitcoins are held by 10% of the population?

Obama: I and many of my fellow Americans believe that that is unfair.  We want to make sure that everyone gets a fair chance with Bitcoin. 

Reporter:  Do you plan to take any action in this regard?

Obama:  Yes.  I am am working in a bipartisan manner to introduce legislation that would ensure that all Americans receive opportunities with Bitcoin.

Lone Fox Reporter:  So do you plan to redistribute bitcoins from those who hold them to those who don't?

Obama:  All Americans deserve opportunities.  That is the kind of country I believe in, and that is the kind of country that you elected me to lead.

(applause... fade to black...)



So, in this future Obama has abolished elections by Executive Order?
In this same future none of the owners of large Bitcoin holdings are prepared to actually spend their money??
1075  Economy / Economics / Re: DO NOT ALLOW TAXATION IN BITCOIN on: January 17, 2014, 05:31:12 AM
Being decentralized and anonymous, the first task of course is to figure out how exactly to tax it.  

morons love the state.

they will tell them.

Please keep separate what is currency and what is taxation. Whether you can tax gold or not is irrelevant to gold as a natural substance. Same with bitcoins. Taxation is a social construct which applies to transactions, income, gains and assets.

If you own a property the government may tax you 1% of its value per year. It is irrelevant whether the prevailing currency the government uses is dollars, euros, gold, bitcoins or sea-shells.
1076  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: January 16, 2014, 02:17:18 AM
Still waiting for a 900€ SEPA withdrawal since july / 19



Half a year, six months, more than 180 days and dozens of mails to 'support' for a fucking 900€ withdrawal.

Ah, and they refuse to cancel my withdrawal too, they said the withdrawal has been processed from their part, but as you can see on the image the status is pending and i have not received a single penny.

Beware of using Gox guys.

This is unusual. Normally withdrawals languish for weeks and months as "confirmed" which means nothing more than you successfully clicked on the "ok" button to start the process. Hence they can be reversed.
"Pending" means they have attempted sending instructions to their bank. Looks like it has got lost and they can't be bothered investigating why.
1077  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2014, 02:11:35 AM
looking this picture, still having questions???

Yes.  Question 1: Why stop at 2017?



Question 2: What will I be able to buy with 10,000,000,000,000,000 dollars in 2024?

 Wink


1,000 loaves of bread? Think that this can't happen to any existing fiat given enough time?

1078  Economy / Speculation / Re: [ TIME FUNCTION EXTRAPOLATION ] bitcoin statistics on: January 15, 2014, 04:45:27 AM
I believe that the most accurate price series would be mtgox until end of June 2013 and Bitstamp from July onward.
1079  Other / Off-topic / Re: Anybody know where John K went? on: January 12, 2014, 09:09:38 AM
<and more humor>

Maybe John and Matthew are on holiday.

Quote
Name:   John (John K.)
Custom Title:   Global Troll-buster and
Posts:   9127
Activity:   770
Position:   Staff
Date Registered:   June 30, 2011, 09:14:50 PM
Last Active:   November 29, 2013, 08:26:22 AM

Quote
Name:   Matthew N. Wright
Custom Title:   Untrustworthy
Posts:   6515
Activity:   588
Position:   Hero Member
Date Registered:   June 16, 2011, 08:19:25 AM
Last Active:   November 29, 2013, 03:08:24 PM


Interestingly, Nov 29th was the day Bitcoin hit the gold price. Was that a signal for a long holiday incognito?
1080  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 12, 2014, 08:44:47 AM
Great find. I was a gold bug until I discovered Bitcoin, but this is almost enough to make me a gold bug again!
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