Yes, I was hoping for some more tension towards the end of the season as it is always amazing to see Real Madrid and Barcelona racing head to head and then the good old clasico takes place. I think everyone of us can remember one of those spectacular games when there was so much on the line in those games. But now with a comfortable 8 points lead I think there will still be a lot going on during that game, but it is quite a different starting position for both teams. Real Madrid doesn't have to win at all cost and they play at home, which makes it very difficult for an inconsistent Barcelona team. I think the La Liga title is already in the hands of Real Madrid.

Yes this is a good result for Arsenal and let's be honest, Arsenal had 27% ball possession, which is shockingly low in my opinion given that they are aspiring to become the next Premier League champion. Of course everyone knows that playing against Manchester City in the Etihad Stadium is never fun, but 27% is too low in my opinion. It's still Arsenal, a team that is going up against Bayern Munich in the Champions League. That was no brave enough. I think it should be expected to have the ball no more than 40% maybe, but this was as if Arsenal was barely playing with the ball. They were busy defending almost all the time. Good question though what the game strategy really was. Maybe it wasn't winning the game, but instead they prioritized to not lose the game.

A quick lead is never good from the opponent's point of view against Real Madrid, but against most expectations this game is going back and forth and Real Madrid isn't dominating the game. In other words, this won't be an easy win for them. For the sake of an exciting finish in La Liga, it would be great to see Real Madrid tie or lose this game against Bilbao. I have nothing against Madrid, but the upcoming clasico would be more fun to watch knowing that Barcelona could significantly close the gap. But well, it is not very likely that Real Madrid will allow for Barcelona to get too close again this season.

I agree and I think what's most promising about Leverkusen's future is the level of consistency that they were able to demonstrate this season. I think this was from another planet so far and if they can continue like until the end of the season, it will be an additional advantage for them when it comes to transfers and negotiations with players that are considering to leave the club and go elsewhere.

If I were a Leverkusen player and still young and the future ahead of me, would I really want to leave this phenomenal project that I have helped building when just in the right moment Alonso confirmed that he will stay with the team? Leverkusen has good chances to keep the squad intact as it is and maybe use the money to add some great players, maybe one or two big names or maybe bigger names.

The example Napoli was mentioned and how they dominated one season. I read those comments and thought that I agree Leverkusen is unlikely to repeat a season like this, but I think they will be able to again compete for the title if nothing changes fundamentally, like selling four or five players of their main team.

Risk-reward will always hold true, but I am sure that this equation or relation isn't the real issue. Most people understand it and get the basic mathematics right behind some easy examples like playing roulette or rolling the dice. The problem is that most people lack the sense and ability to grasp complex scenarios sufficiently. I won't say completely because nobody can and it somehow is part of the risk that there are things that we don't know that we don't know.

But many people shy away from putting in the effort to quantify the risk with reasonable reliability and validity. They only have their eyes on the proclaimed or perceived reward while they are not able for whatever reason to get the first part right - the risk. Only then could they make an educated decision whether or not a certain event is a real opportunity or a fallacy.

Everything you said is correct and many people forget about Gundogan and how he built the most dangerous midfield in the world with De Bruyne last season. These two guys had countless of goals and assists to their names and they perfectly harmonized with each other when it came to controlling the speed of the game. The fact that they scored so many important goals was another big advantage that Manchester City had over other teams. De Bruyne scored the important goal in the first leg against Real Madrid and Gundogan scored several important goals in Premier League games, some of which he scored late in the game when the strikers couldn't get the job done. Having such a midfield is so valuable to any team. It means that not everything has to be done and managed by a player like Haaland. Instead, the whole team is dangerous and can score goals. It is a bit different this season, but I think that was to be expected as it is always close to impossible to replace such a midfield 1:1 within just one season's time.

Obviously you are wrong about this one. There are plenty of examples when teams that are in top shape and play very well still can get eliminated from any competition. It is highly unlikely in the domestic league though as the team with the best form has the highest probability of averaging more wins than any other team over a large number of games. But in the Champions League or national cups like the Copa del Rey, it is not only about form and it doesn't always determine success. A far weaker team can land a lucky punch any time and eliminate a huge favorite from a tournament. Atletico Madrid would not beat Inter Milan very often in two games, but this time they did. However, their form was certainly no good indicator of their advancement to the next round.

it is not that easy and I think most people familiar with football know that. The leagues have so many games that the best team usually wins. But the other competitions are kind of driven by their own set of rules.

I can't recall in detail what happened to him like two years ago or so, but I think he was fighting with a bigger injury. I might be wrong though. As far as I remember there have been clubs that were interested in him like one or two years ago, but he had a long-term contract with Leipzig and at the time I think the transfer free that Leipzig asked for was too high. However, taking into account what prices clubs are willing to pay for all kinds of players and also for players that are apparently weaker than Olmo, I wasn't expecting to see him play for Leipzig for so long.

But he extended his contract until 2027 eventually. I am sure his salary was raised significantly he might have a clause that allows him to leave the club. I am not sure about the details though, but I believe that in the upcoming summer transfer window there will be clubs trying again to sign him.

The recent performances he has shown have definitely drawn some attention. I saw him play a couple of times for Spain and in some games for Leipzig and he is really someone who can make a difference. It is not surprising that many of the big teams are after him. Since he has that release clause in his contract, I am sure that he won't be playing for Leipzig next summer.

Real Madrid is playing very well this season and they were also able to bring in new players when they out of a sudden had to deal with injuries. Both Courtois and Vinicius Junior are key players ad while they found a great solution for Courtois, which was hard enough, it was difficult to do the same for Vinicius Junior when he was injured. But he is back and living up to his full potential. Barcelona won't get close to them, but to put it in a nutshell whether there is still a chance for the title race to become close, it will all be about matchday 32. The clasico will decide whether there is going to be some fighting until the end.

That's a brave analysis, but I don't think that Manchester City would be the easier opponent when there was a choice between Bayern Munich and City. Bayern Munich is getting back to old strength these days, but Manchester City doesn't have these games where they completely collapse. Bayern lost against Lazio, but I doubt that that would have happened to City if they had played against Lazio. But anyway, there are some very good teams still in the Champions League and we can guaranteed look forward to some amazing clashes in the coming weeks!

They lack a concept and a coach with a vision. Pochettino doesn't really know what he is doing. The Chelsea bosses don't really know what they are doing. They are opening their wallet and then buy whatever player seems to be a hot target on the market. It's insane if you look at their player fluctuation especially in the higher price segments. They bought players for far more than 50 million that never really arrived and lived up to their potential. They then sold those players again at a loss. I am not sure where they are heading over the next 3 - 4 years, but next season it is again a season without Champions League and it is almost scandalous given how much they have been investing in the past few years.

Yes it is true as it seems that Saylor has been quite transparent about it (or had to be transparent about it?). I am not fully into his buying/selling record concerning MSTR shares, but you can find a few reports where it became public that he sold shares several times when in fact you would expect the opposite considering his public communication. But let's face it, whatever he knew about the short selling, he is doing the right thing (unless this is some insider shit, which would of course make it illegal). You can short a company to death, but you can't short BTC to death. That is why I am surprised that (if OgNasty is right) people would instead accept a more complex risk exposure when they sell BTC and buy shares in a company. But it's true, nobody can really tell who is buying and selling what.



No you got this right, HODL was a typo back at the time. But it's quite funny that he turned it into some poker semantics: "Know when to HOLD, no when to FOLD".


Again another good catch which I wasn't aware of and I find that whole Saylor case interesting and am paying attention to it whenever I got some time to follow up on the news, but this is pretty suspicious! Wow. @The Sceptical Chymist did you find that screenshot today as it says "4 hours ago"? There are several reports about Saylor selling shares and I doubt those reports are wrong. He is incrementally selling quite frequently. When you google "Saylor buying MSTR", you'll get zero results. So there has to be some truth to it.

But again, if he is allowed to then he is doing the right thing. MSTR will most likely have limits or less potential to increase in price than BTC. I can't even see the point in holding MSTR instead of BTC. I don't get it. What would a good reason be to hold MSTR instead of BTC? Any ideas? I am mainly talking/asking about retail investors.

Good catch here as I didn't look into his buying/selling behavior with respect to MSTR shares. Interesting. But what I don't get now is why would someone sell BTC to then buy a small share in a company that is essentially comprised of BTC investments? From what I understand Microstrategy has a more diversified exposure than BTC only, but at the end of the day I think their positioning in public clearly will lead to a significant correlation of the MSTR share price with the BTC price. I guess that is why you called those people "fans". Without really knowing what they are doing, they are selling precious BTC just to get a share in the company of their BTC "savior" as you said. Still a weird decision to make though.

That makes sense to me. The game against City is the biggest hurdle they have to take on their way to the final. I don't see Bayern quite on the same level as City, but as you said taking both hurdles combined makes it less likely for them to get into the final. But the team is absolutely ready for those games. Good to see that Vinicius Junior is doing well again after his injuries. I love watching him play. I feel he sometimes gets too distracted by this idiotic racism shit, but as long as he can turn it into positive anger and play one level above his best, it's ok for him as a player (not as a human being though as that should be handled far more rigorously).

If Real can take the City hurdle, I think they'll be the favorite in the next stage no matter whether Arsenal or Bayern make it there.

Kevin De Bruyne in the best shape possible being absent makes the team worse. I don't wanna come up with a % number by how much the team is worse, but what would the point be of being proud to have this exceptional player when he does not give the team some % points in extra performance? No, for me he is one of the best midifielders/midfield-wingers of all times. There is hardly any player who understood as well how to put his teammates into the perfect position to score. His assist numbers are widely unmatched. I don't know whether there is a leaderboard regarding number of assists historically, but if there is, I am sure he is to be found in the top 5 of all times. I am not sure how it would not be a loss for a team if such a player is absent.

It is not up to Barcelona alone whether these players are going to stay or not. Barcelona has been smart though when it comes to most of the contracts of their youngsters. By giving them a chance to play for the first team in La Liga, one of the conditions is a long contract duration. But these durations of any of those contracts aren't without limits. Some of the players have release clauses and if they sign a 5-years contract at the age of 18, by the time they turn 23 Barcelona is getting into trouble as the players get into a more powerful position for negotiations. None of these players would tie themselves longer to the club without any need for that to be done. Barcelona has been this club that all the players dreamed of, but times have changed over the past few years. If they want to make sure that their best young talents don't leave, the best way to do this is to become the best club in Europe again and that is probably not achievable in a short amount of time.

There is a bit more to say about Barcelona's performance when you want to compare last season with this season. If you only look at their performance in La Liga, then yes you are absolutely right. Barcelona had 73 points after 29 games and now they are at 64 points after 29 games. That is of course a significant difference and one major reason is that Barcelona barely managed to keep a clean sheet this season. Their defense has had problems again and again and last season I recall that they had countless of clean sheets and they were able to save those three points once they took the lead in a game.

But you can consider the Champions League and see that they are doing much better. While they didn't make it through the group stage last season, they are now competing with PSG for the semifinals. There is progress there, but definitely a few steps back in La Liga.

That is far too optimistic with respect to Liverpool. If Arsenal and Manchester City finish the game with a draw, Liverpool could finish that matchday with a 2 points lead ahead of Arsenal and 3 points ahead of Manchester City. That would not mean the end of the world for Arsenal nor for Manchester City. Actually, I think a draw would cause the least damage to all teams combined. But for Manchester City a loss would be very painful. This could make the decisive difference eventually.

But the season wouldn't be over regardless of what happens. All of these three teams have a win rate of roughly 2/3. I can't just predict that win rate into the future, but I do think it makes sense to look at it and think about whether or not it is realistic that the leading team after this matchday will almost safely win the PL. No, I don't think so. There will still be a draw and maybe a loss for all of them. Or maybe not a loss, but probably draws.

This is a good point and while some people might be thinking that suing is still a losing game in the BTC sphere because they believe it to still be the wild west, those times are over. Due to the institutional involvement of large and politically relevant actors and due to ETFs being set up and a legal framework that has been incrementally established, it is guaranteed that this would have severe legal consequences. There is no getting away with such an attack from a publicly known and detected entity.

I remember when there was some talk about the mistakenly sent transaction fees that were way too high. All of that was returned to the rightful owners as everyone involved knows that legal consequences would otherwise be inbound. Same here for a 51% attack. The attacker would lose the resources to attack the network and lose the legal case. Doesn't sound very tempting to me.