yes we should, but our analysis will be tested within $20 range. if it hits 440 we should be prepared for that, it is not far away.

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

I think that's pretty sound advice 
seriously though.

If you think 450-470 is iv/III then I think that's a pretty good reading.

What does everybody think about this?

.... seems a bit bearish atm, but then again, fifth waves are weak. break under 455 would invalidate the whole thing.

Alongside fundamentals, yes. fundamentals can change. EW can be ambiguous, but it offers clear junctures. this could be an impulsive correction in a bear market, but I do not believe that..... we are not in a bear market. we are in a massive bull market.

If you are a noob, dont day trade. simple as that. just hold. in few years you will have seen everything on the market, seen a lot of TA, and then maybe you can experiment.

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

Well if you ask me TA is just risk management - very important none the less! waiting for the market to lose momentum before entering is a good strategy, so maybe use a MACD, sure, or an RSI. EW is more than risk management, combined with fundamentals, it gives us an idea of the limits of the market, and the bias. when is selling pressure exhausted, what side is vulnerable to news (sentiment), what has the market prepared for, etc. TA combined with fundamentals does not offer the same reflection of fundamentals.

It is working for me, looking back to my posts over the last 2 weeks, you'll see I bought at 355, sold 420, bought 405, sold 498, bought 498, sold 540, shorted 540, bought 520, and now bought summore at 490. you are right, it cant last forever though.

fr33d0miz3r, I might have agreed, but do you know the rule about IV(iv/iii) A fourth wave following a third wave will tend to turn around within the proximity of the fourth wave of one lower fractal.

Look at my chart above. it's almost exact.

I wish I could help you about your other question, but I dont know all the details.

windjc,   all better.

but im just gonna say that EW doesn't work all on its own, I am taking into consideration a lot to do with fundamentals and sentiment behind the scene.

EDIT, just realised you already said that pretty much 

... Cheers Davy. Im on a roll. Ive been wrong before, and I will be wrong again, but so few people can see the validity of what Im doing. makin money and thats good enough for me. Cheers.

My chart showed two alternate situations, a wedge, or an ABC pattern. if the wedge was broken, I said it would floor above 480. It says on the chart! read it!

Just watch as your bear flag munts its self......

what? I just drew that chart.... I put the line under the close not the wick.....

I specified, read it, I said wave IV will turn around within 510 -480 you have my word.

Aa an EW analyst, 432 is in the range of wave one. if you ask me we will probably never see 431 again. but dont take my word for it. you need to have a breakout plan if you cant wait for your own targets.

going to plan.

you are probably right, but im not surprised that we are having a reaction at this particular point. It validates my overall game plan. always stick to the game plan.

you are right, though if this is my target on a larger scale, Ill take a good guess where it's gonna stop.