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1521  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Trump run again...and win?? on: June 24, 2022, 01:53:01 PM
I think the US hasn't had much luck with presidents lately, and Trump isn't a gift either, but compared to Biden, it looks like a very good option. I hope that the next US President will be a Republican, because under the Democrats, the country is flying at full speed into the abyss. Trump's "make America great again" slogan has a lot of good practical meaning for the US, it inspires and can unite people, and the internal division in society is now very large and this is a serious problem for the future of the US. Globalists screwed up and unable to admit it, I think the Democrats will desperately cling to power, not stopping at the dirtiest methods. With Trump (or another Republican president), the US has a future as a strong regional leader. With Biden (or another Democratic president), the US has no future at all.
1522  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 24, 2022, 01:26:05 PM
Your assertion about what you can "the eastern front" is just wishful thinking. A couple of villages do not make for "a front", but glad to see that you are re-calibrating your expectations. I do agree that the west should be throwing much more help to deter Adolf Putin from continuing the war.
The degree of your detachment from reality impresses me. It is unlikely that we are talking about a couple of villages, Zolotoe is taken, Gorskoye is being cleared, the flag of the LPR is over the administration building in Gorskoye (the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not even last two days in the boiler, heavy losses and many prisoners). Severodonetsk has been cleared completely, the fighting is now going on in Lisichansk. After the capture and cleansing of Lisichansk, the territory of the Lugansk People's Republic will be 100% completely liberated.
1523  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What do you think about patriotism in Russia - Ukraine war? on: June 24, 2022, 08:19:34 AM
You cannot get a SIM card without a Russian passport, so these processes are closely interrelated.

Where did you get such accurate information?
Did you make it up and pass it off as truth?
I saw posts about this on the net, but now I double-checked and it seems that this is not true. Apparently, you can buy a SIM card with a Russian number +7 (of an unknown operator, it looks like a Crimean T-mobile) and with a Ukrainian passport.
1524  Economy / Economics / Re: Strong russia and china narrative vs weak usa but the thing is on: June 24, 2022, 07:28:17 AM
Russia and China are powerful countries. Russia is developing its economy thanks to sanctions, China supports it in this. India joined this alliance and I think these powerful powers have every chance to bypass the USA. Negotiations are currently underway to switch trade completely from dollars to rupees. This is a big breakthrough and support for the economies of these countries. Now new centers of power are emerging and this must be taken into account. These countries have large territories, a large population, a powerful army, and high technology. There is something to think about...

If you didn’t read Russian fake propaganda, you would perfectly understand that Russia for China is just an appendage that sells any resources to it for cheap, as others refuse them! A simple example that you can easily check is that Russia's budget, in the area of ​​oil revenues, is built on a price of $70+ per barrel. The indicative (this is not the real purchase price) of Urals oil is 100+ dollars, Europe refuses it, and China agreed to buy it, no more than 40 dollars per barrel. For myself, and I don’t rule it out for sale Smiley For one thing, let me remind you why Russia agrees to such conditions - and it simply has nowhere to store excess oil produced, and it is FORCED to sell at least to someone, at least for some money, otherwise it will have to conserve the fields, and after the sanctions, technologically backward Russia itself will not be able to launch them on a new one! Everything is extremely simple, and you do not need to invent something! Smiley
This is not true, the price of Ural oil of $44.2 is included in the Russian budget for 2022. This is public information and is easy to verify on your own. Data on the size of the discount to China and India is more difficult to verify, but according to various sources, it does not exceed $30-35 per barrel. The average price of oil that Russia sells to Asia is about $80 per barrel, almost double the budgeted price level. However, due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar, the situation in reality is a little worse, but right now Russia is receiving excess profits from oil exports, part of which goes to replenish the National Welfare Fund.
1525  Other / Politics & Society / Re: What do you think about patriotism in Russia - Ukraine war? on: June 24, 2022, 07:15:02 AM
Check the video on the page, lines for the Russian Sim cards.
https://crimea-news.com/society/2022/05/31/928875.html

Not quite the same as passports but don't let minor details like that stop you from lying to us.
You cannot get a SIM card without a Russian passport, so these processes are closely interrelated.

There is another nice bonus from obtaining Russian citizenship - zeroing out debts on all loans. For many Ukrainians, this turns out to be a good incentive to change citizenship.
1526  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: June 24, 2022, 07:02:03 AM
The Texas Energy Plant explosion is another disaster for Europe in series of events to put even more pressure on EU energy sector considering that 80% of this plant's LNG supply was going to EU and it was shut off and the production in the future due to damage is going to be significantly reduced.

We keep talking about gas and its price but I think we should also start talking about coal price since more EU countries are moving towards using coal instead!!! So far 3 of them (Germany, Austria, Netherlands) have started using coal. Others are also planning on using it soon.
Interestingly enough a considerable part of their coal is also imported from Russia!
Not anymore. The European Union introduced an embargo on coal imports from Russia in the fifth package of sanctions adopted in early April (with a four-month delay for its implementation).
1527  Economy / Economics / Re: LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union. on: June 24, 2022, 05:24:44 AM
By the way, the question is - what do you think - Maduro, in Venezuela, in the country with the largest oil deposits, is interested in where to sell oil? US and EU for dollars and Euros, or China for yuan? Or maybe .... for Russian rubles? Smiley Maduro is certainly an "interesting type", but he's not an idiot! Smiley That is why the ban on the sale of oil to normal world markets is lifted from Venezuela ...
You may be surprised, but in 2020, under pressure from US sanctions, Rosneft ceased operations in Venezuela and sold all its local assets to a company that is 100% owned by the Russian government. At that time, Russian companies controlled 70% of all oil produced in Venezuela.

All right! The terrorist country, as always, cowardly leaves the territories where normal laws and relations should soon appear, where it is impossible to terrorize the supplier or the buyer with their idiotic problems. Maduro is, of course, verbally "against" Western values, but he understands that being a slave to an isolated terrorist is a road to nowhere. Plus, problems are accumulating, and there is only one way out - to start cooperating with normal countries, normal buyers! And so it will continue Smiley
In 2020, the US State Department offered a $15 million reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest, do you think he has already forgotten about it?

The US is now in desperate need of heavy oil to solve the shortage of diesel fuel, which is needed for road freight transport and is one of the strongest sources of inflation for all types of goods.
1528  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: June 23, 2022, 12:24:58 PM
Well differences apart, USA military equipment is still most reliable and modern in the world far ahead of what China and Russia are producing. Gulf countries from day one have not focused on developing military themselves rather they still rely on USA for all there defense. USA is in every gulf country for there defense like Doha, Kuwait, KSA. You cant just have a strong defense by buying expensive weapons from west, it takes years of hard work and indigenization.

Not quite sure about that. Recently Russia has been able to produce quality defense equipment at fraction of the price that the Americans pay for their equipment. One good example is that of the S-500 air defense system. It is cheaper than the American Patriot system, and much more inexpensive. The same can be said about the ICBMs as well. SS-18 Satan remains the most powerful ballistic missile manufactured till date. And I believe that Russia has also won the competition for the fifth-generation fighter aircraft. The Sukhoi Su-57 is rumored to be much more capable when compared to Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II.
Su-57 is an excellent fifth generation fighter, thrust vectoring engines allow it to perform incredible aerobatics, such as a flat spin (however, the Su-35S can do this, albeit not with such ease). A very beautiful aircraft, it is currently being tested in combat conditions in Ukraine as part of a flight of four fighters that operate in a coordinated network as one. The ability of the Su-57 to maneuver is incredible and seems to be limited only by the ability of the pilots to physically withstand the resulting G-forces.
1529  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: June 23, 2022, 11:15:29 AM
Meanwhile, Germany has activated the second phase of the emergency plan amid cuts in gas supplies from Russia. The country has declared a gas shortage and a gas crisis.
1530  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 23, 2022, 09:43:05 AM
Make no mistake, the day the US decides that Adolf Putin looses in Donbas, the young soldiers in there will die and Putin will loose. That may or may not happen, it can be sooner, later or even never. I would not like to be one of the guys that finds out the hard way.
Thank you for worrying about the fate of Russian soldiers, so far everything seems to be fine. A month after the surrender of Azov's militants in Mariupol, it can be said that the Eastern Front has crumbled. Ukraine is losing the battle in the Donbass, and so far no military assistance from the West has been able to change this.
1531  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 23, 2022, 05:47:48 AM
Meanwhile, the cauldron in Gorsky-Zolotoye slammed shut, the report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirms information about the loss of Ukrainian control over the settlements of Loskutovka and Rai-Aleksandrovka. This also creates the prerequisites for the encirclement of Lisichansk.
1532  Economy / Economics / Re: LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union. on: June 22, 2022, 09:39:55 PM
By the way, the question is - what do you think - Maduro, in Venezuela, in the country with the largest oil deposits, is interested in where to sell oil? US and EU for dollars and Euros, or China for yuan? Or maybe .... for Russian rubles? Smiley Maduro is certainly an "interesting type", but he's not an idiot! Smiley That is why the ban on the sale of oil to normal world markets is lifted from Venezuela ...
You may be surprised, but in 2020, under pressure from US sanctions, Rosneft ceased operations in Venezuela and sold all its local assets to a company that is 100% owned by the Russian government. At that time, Russian companies controlled 70% of all oil produced in Venezuela.
1533  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 22, 2022, 03:51:24 AM
Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.
Lithuania didn't started Kaliningrad blockade like Russia is trying to show. They simply don't allow to transit sanctioned goods through railway of Lithuania, what is normal thing.
For Russia, this does not look normal, like a land blockade of its exclave.

Now you're saying that Russia needs these territories for their territorial integrity and self-identity, but didn't you said some time ago that Russia don't need other territories as they have enough their own land?
Exclaves are not a problem for Russia as long as good partnerships are maintained with neighboring states. Ukraine and the Baltic States are infected with Nazism and cultivate Russophobia - this exacerbates the issue of a land corridor to Kaliningrad and Crimea. I think this issue will be resolved.

And following your logic which you apply to Crimea and territory with Russian speaking majority, Kaliningrad isn't even Russian land, what Russia are doing there?
There are historical reasons why the Kaliningrad region is part of Russia, and they are quite reasonable. This is not a matter of logic, but a fait accompli.

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

I agree, they should give Königsberg back to Germany. This would solve the transit problem.
Secretary of the Russian Security Council Patrushev flew to Kaliningrad yesterday for a scheduled off-site meeting of the Security Council, but the issue of surrendering Koenigsberg to Germany is unlikely to be on the agenda. From Kaliningrad, the whole of Europe is very conveniently shot through by Iskanders. Although it is all shot through from the Caspian Sea with Calibers, but nonetheless. Grin

Strong ruble is bad for export, which is all that Russia really has (oil/gas). It would be good for import but most imports are under sanctions.

This is part of the reason why ruble is rising - very few businesses in Russia need foreign currency anymore. And there are restrictions on moving it.

In Soviet Union the ruble was "equal" to about 1.5 USD. We (well, except Branko and be.open and a few other purveyors of Kremlinism) know how that ended.
But look how beautiful - we are now witnessing the energy suicide of Europe. In the Netherlands, three mothballed coal-fired thermal power plants have already been launched. In Germany, gas-intensive production is under threat of stopping and ceasing to exist. In the summer, there is no injection, but the consumption of gas from underground storage facilities. Russia will suffer some discomfort from Western sanctions, but what margin of safety does Europe have?

Unstoppable? More like a Ponzi scheme at interest rates between 11 and 20 lately. You see, once again you are looking only at the information that somehow proves you point. You can support the Rouble by raising the interest rates, but you will have to print a plenty to pay for that. But hey, by all means, sell whatever you have and buy Roubles. Are you doing it now? Ah... it feels different when is your money and not just a post uh?
You better follow the Ukrainian hryvnia, the key rate there is now 25%. Grin
1534  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: June 21, 2022, 01:51:25 PM
Actually, I think the alternative cannot be discovered by rushing.
But, in order to stop Russia's aggression, the countries must also reduce their dependence on Russia, otherwise, the world economy will go like shit.  

I think, at this moment renewable energy seems to be the only way. Although it is expensive and difficult. But if you can use it properly, your dependence on Russia will decrease and Russia will also suffer because it will not be able to supply oil and gas.

Duke!
Meanwhile, Europe is drawing up emergency plans to switch back to coal after Russia cuts natural-gas supplies. Grin
1535  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 21, 2022, 11:27:20 AM
"On Lithuania" - is Russia really that much interested in those Baltic states? Seems that these three small countries has nothing interesting, no resources, no strategic valuable territory, technology. They only resource they have is people.
Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.
1536  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 21, 2022, 08:14:30 AM

The Kaliningrad thing is interesting for sure.  I've had (for years) a spider-sense that this (and the entrance through Turkish controlled territory to the Black Sea) were major potential flash-points.

Interference of any sort by Lithuania seems to be a bald-faced abandonment of the agreements which Russia made when Lithuania joined NATO.
It seems that the topic of Ukraine has already pretty tired everyone, and now all the attention of the politically active world community is riveted to the Suwalki Gap.
1537  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 21, 2022, 07:50:11 AM
You are right, it is risky. But right now, Russia has an amazing window of opportunity to realize this. And it did not open on its own, Putin opened it with his pre-emptive invasion of Ukraine, which triggered Western economic sanctions and a mass exodus of Western companies from Russia, which themselves voluntarily freed the huge Russian market from their presence, creating favorable conditions for a large-scale transformation of Russia. I am not a big fan of Putin, but I truly admire the beauty of his strategy and the scope of his ambitions. It would have been much easier and safer to wait for Ukraine's invasion of the Donbass - and Russia would still have won, albeit with much greater human losses, but there would not have been this condemning pressure from the West on Russia, thanks to which Russia had a real chance for a painful transformation from another one country of the third world into the unifying power of the locomotive of the largest continent (which, by right of its birth and geographical location, it is). Let's see, Putin's speech yesterday at the economic forum in St. Petersburg gives a chance to hope that Russia will choose not the easy path of its development, but the right one.

I never expected the Russian economy to be this resilient. As of now, Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world. When the first set of sanctions were introduced, media channels such as CNN and BBC were predicting a complete economic meltdown in a matter of weeks, if not days. The initial indications were in that direction. The Russian Ruble exchange rate plummeted from around 70 to 140, and the stock markets collapsed completely. But then some miracle happened, and in the next few months all these loses were reversed. I regularly check the Western media, and they still publish all sort of scare stories about the Russian economy. But no one can deny the fact that the government did an amazing job to avert an economic meltdown.
Meanwhile, the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia recently confirmed the abandonment of targeting the ruble exchange rate and the concentration on inflation targeting.
Quote
Any ideas related to course targeting, if implemented, will inevitably lead to a decrease in the effectiveness and loss of sovereignty of the economic policy being pursued.
Quote
If we bring our monetary policy so that our currency has some fixed or slightly fluctuating nominal rate against currencies where inflation is 8-10%, then our inflation will be the same. This is exactly the option that is unacceptable for us.
This confirms my assumption that Russia will try to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened for a systemic restructuring of its own economy, even if this promises to give up short-term profits due to current market conditions. Today, the ruble has strengthened to the level of 2015, less than 55 rubles per dollar.
1538  Economy / Economics / Re: LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union. on: June 20, 2022, 06:19:56 PM
PS I don't blame India for anything. I can only express my personal opinion about the moral side of this or that act, to which I have every right. Like India, make decisions and explain your attitude to the problem. I just said that such a position could someday play a cruel joke on India. A passive or neutral position is, for example, when a bully beats a girl, and you are a healthy man, walk by and say - that's their business, I'm not alone, and give the bully a stone in his hand, because it turns out that the bully is your business partner. It's just that India is setting a very bad precedent. And when trouble happens to India, everyone will say - yes, this is a completely different problem, and why we will strain and suffer because of India or its problems. Although I sincerely wish that everything is fine in India and that there are no misfortunes, since I have a different attitude to other people's problems and tragedies ...
Let me remind you that Ukraine from the beginning of the operation and still carries out the transit of Russian gas through its territory to Europe and receives money from Gazprom for this. Don't you think it's too hypocritical to blame others for what you do yourself?
I did not know this, that sounds like a very weird situation. I mean what you are saying is that Russia gets rich from gas sales, and Ukraine is helping them get those sales and earn some profit from their profit as well, and at the same time Russia is sending missiles to them and bombing their nations?

How does that work? Like if you give me enough money I will ignore the bombs you are sending my way? Or like if my profits are up then I do not care if my workers died from a Russian soldiers gun? I do not know the logic behind this, I do not have any data to go on with, all I know is what you said, I do not know if what you said is true or not neither, but I really hope it is not true.
Well, now you know. A gas pipeline passes through Ukraine and Russian Gazprom pays Ukrainian Naftogaz for the transit of Russian gas from Russia to Europe at a rate of 41.7 million cubic meters of natural gas per day through the Sudzha gas metering station.
1539  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 18, 2022, 01:27:48 PM
Right now, Russia is at a very interesting historical crossroads. Figuratively speaking, she needs to make a very difficult choice between two different paths of development, one of which is "easy" and the other is "right". The "easy" way is to continue to be a raw materials appendage and a gas station country, reorienting logistics routes from West to East. The "right" way is to block all the ways of capital outflow from the country to focus on internal development. Of course, this division is figurative, these two paths are largely intertwined and one does not exclude the other, it is more a matter of prioritization. But in many ways, it is the internal policy of the regulator in relation to the ruble exchange rate that will be a reliable indicator of which path Russia has chosen as its main priority.

Well.. I understand your viewpoint. But there are risks associated with the "right" option. Exporting raw materials and energy products is less risky, because there is growing demand across the globe and the prices doesn't vary from country to country. But using these materials to set up manufacturing units and then to export the finished products requires a lot of technological advancement as well as heavy investment. For example, both Germany and Japan use Russian gas to power the manufacturing units that produce automobiles and heavy engineering equipment. For Russia to manufacture these products at home is not easy. To build up the brand name and reputation alone, it will take many decades.
You are right, it is risky. But right now, Russia has an amazing window of opportunity to realize this. And it did not open on its own, Putin opened it with his pre-emptive invasion of Ukraine, which triggered Western economic sanctions and a mass exodus of Western companies from Russia, which themselves voluntarily freed the huge Russian market from their presence, creating favorable conditions for a large-scale transformation of Russia. I am not a big fan of Putin, but I truly admire the beauty of his strategy and the scope of his ambitions. It would have been much easier and safer to wait for Ukraine's invasion of the Donbass - and Russia would still have won, albeit with much greater human losses, but there would not have been this condemning pressure from the West on Russia, thanks to which Russia had a real chance for a painful transformation from another one country of the third world into the unifying power of the locomotive of the largest continent (which, by right of its birth and geographical location, it is). Let's see, Putin's speech yesterday at the economic forum in St. Petersburg gives a chance to hope that Russia will choose not the easy path of its development, but the right one.
1540  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: June 18, 2022, 08:23:37 AM
Should Germany should actually start a new Nuclear energy program to meet their energy needs? I'm a mere pleb, I don't know. The obvious answer, yes. I believe the United Kingdom has already started.

One of the problems with nuclear power is that everything is very slow there, it will take years, if not decades, to fully resume the European nuclear program. Another problem is with the source of enriched uranium supplies, which is approximately 40% controlled by Russia. There are also difficulties with unenriched uranium, it simply does not exist in Europe, and Africa does not seem to have the necessary enthusiasm to be a cash cow for its former colonialists.


 Shocked

Germany might have believed too much in its Renewable Energy program, that they might have thought they were not coming back to Nuclear Energy. Plus can Uranium be stored? Or can Russia use their Uranium exports to punish Europe/the U.S. again?
It's strange that this is surprising to you. Russia is a very strong player in the energy market, and in many aspects (including uranium enrichment). And of course, in the context of sanctions and the actual economic war between the West and Russia, Russia will use all its weighty arguments to secure victory or at least an advantage. The United States also cannot do without the supply of enriched uranium from Russia, it provides approximately 20% of all electricity generation at nuclear power plants in the United States.


Shower thought. Black Swan = World War III?

I believe if Germany and the restof Europe is pushed enough, they might strike back and use Ukraine as the entry.
Germany now does not have a combat-ready army capable of resisting Russia. No one in NATO, including the United States, has a combat-ready army capable of resisting Russia (which is why NATO is so diligently distancing itself from direct participation in the conflict in Ukraine). Don't be fooled, most European armies are decorative, like the Vatican Guards.

update:
Quote
The scheduled annual maintenance of the Turkish Stream will take place from 21 to 28 June.

Gas transportation along both strings of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline will be temporarily suspended from 21 to 28 June 2022 due to scheduled preventive maintenance.

The suspension of gas transportation was agreed upon by all interested parties in advance.
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