Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[BADecker]

The logic is very simple - Ukraine now really needs some kind of significant military victory over Russia, so that the flow of military aid from the West will increase significantly and not dry up at all. And for this, to provoke Russia into a suicidal assault on the powerful fortified areas in Avdiivka is a good enough idea. Yesterday, at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Putin said that a direct assault on Avdiivka is not expedient (in other words, Russia cannot afford it now).

Now, in response, explain what logic Russia has to shell the residential areas of Donetsk, when the DPR is an ally of Russia in this operation and the main goal of Russia is to protect the Donbass?

I don't know, it still doesn't make sense why Ukraine would need to do it. In recent weeks Ukraine losing 100-200 soldiers every day, it's huge number, it's difficult to imagine that at same time they would want to provoke Russia to attack them in another direction.
In your link Putin said that they don't want to turn cities that they ''liberate'' into another Stalingrad, though, they already did it with Mariupol.
Actions of Russia don't always have logic. I don't know who exactly did it, Russia or DPR, but im general it's same stuff. No idea why they are doing it. Maybe DPR are doing it in order to get more help from Russia and that they would intensify actions against Ukraine. And I'm not saying that Ukraine didn't shell Donetsk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQB7uWuWpBw

Interesting view

An interesting view from a russian asset who happened to be in Ukraine the day before the russian invasion and spread russian narratives about a fascist police state for some time? I bet it is.

Even if he is right, nobody knows for sure that it won't take a year to happen. Look at all the predictions from the past that Bitcoin would crash. If this is the crash now, think of how long some people have had to wait for their prophesy to come true.

[tvbcof]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQB7uWuWpBw

Interesting view

The Kaliningrad thing is interesting for sure.  I've had (for years) a spider-sense that this (and the entrance through Turkish controlled territory to the Black Sea) were major potential flash-points.

Interference of any sort by Lithuania seems to be a bald-faced abandonment of the agreements which Russia made when Lithuania joined NATO.

It is about as clear as day that the installed leadership(*) of the U.S. are hell-bent on getting a war going with Russia at any cost.  The most rational reason for this would be that they are dedicated to finally imploding the U.S..  Such a thing 'must happen' in order to align with certain religious texts and intellectual interpretations of them.  From a completely non-secular political frame of reference, only one thing can sit on the top of a pyramid, and to achieve that position, the one which is there already must be displaced.

Seems in other news about this event, Russia is making noise about a tit-for-tat response to the Lithuanian (supposed) action.  I'm somewhat surprised at this response, and figure that it may be another expression of high-level game-play on the part of Putin...best to keep your opponent off-balance and making invalid inferences after all.

I think that what I would do in Russia's situation would be to announce that they consider a swath of present-day Lithuania to be Russian territory and they do intend to take it once the time is right.  A much wider swath necessary to ensure security will also be arranged (hopefully politically), and it will likely include parts of Poland.  The more resistance (up to and including the time of the taking) the better because the wider will be the swath(s)...maybe even as wide as the entire Baltic states combined

Key would be for Russia to say that for now, nothing changes.  They'll work around the illegal blockage in a variety of ways while they wait for the U.S. and EU to collapse and for NATO to dissolve with the goal being to minimize loss of life and avoid WW-III.  This as a humanitarian gesture and favor to the rest of the earth since they seem to be the only adults in the room at the moment.  Hopefully that will change in the not too distant future.  Maybe just one cold winter if it even gets that far.

---

*

Secretary Treasury
Secretary of State
Chief of Staff
Deputy Director CIA
Attorney General
Secretary Homeland Security
Director National Intelligence
Deputy Secretary of State
Secretary State Political Affairs
Office of Science Technology
Assistant Health Secretary
Senior Counselor at the Department of Homeland Security
Head of USAID
Pentagon Senior Policy Official on the Middle East
CDC Director
Director of Cybersecurity at NSA
Director of Technology at National Security Council
Director of National Intelligence
Deputy Secretary of Transportation
Acting Chairwoman FCC
Co-Chair of the Gender Policy Council
Member of Council of Economic Advisers
COVID Czar
Chief Science Officer of COVID Response
Deputy Administrator Federal Highway Administration
Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission

[paxmao]

So much wishful thinking on this thread... "when NATO disappears...", "when Poland invades Ukraines...", "when the RF wins...", "when RF circumvents sanctions...", "when China does this and that..."

This is becoming fantasyland, while people flee the RF by the hundreds of thousands, loose their jobs on western firms that close, see the Rouble struggle, see the EU starting a de-coupling process, see weapons sent to Ukraine...

How feeble are "predictions" when compared to the hard facts pointing exactly in the opposite direction. Is like Adolf Putin in the "World Economic Forum of St Petersburg" (chuckle) saying that RF economy is stable and going well... Following to the letter Sun Tzu's "when you are weak, try to appear strong" once more, with the problem being that the bluff has been called.

[DrBeer]

Interference of any sort by Lithuania seems to be a bald-faced abandonment of the agreements which Russia made when Lithuania joined NATO.

"Any Lithuanian intervention looks like a brazen rejection of the agreements that Russia concluded when Lithuania joined NATO." - there is nothing funnier than the demands of Russia, which has violated all the agreements, that it is possible to comply with the agreements signed with it. The time has come for Russia to get back what they regularly allowed themselves. Now everyone has the right to spit on agreements with Russia, and ignore any squeals and tantrums from Russia. Or maybe a bald parody of the Fuhrer will decide to attack a NATO country? Oh don't tell me and the whole world!

Key would be for Russia to say that for now, nothing changes.  They'll work around the illegal blockage in a variety of ways while they wait for the U.S. and EU to collapse and for NATO to dissolve with the goal being to minimize loss of life and avoid WW-III.  This as a humanitarian gesture and favor to the rest of the earth since they seem to be the only adults in the room at the moment.  Hopefully that will change in the not too distant future.  Maybe just one cold winter if it even gets that far.

Well, judging by the plans - and Russia will follow the USSR - to the dustbin of history, those idiots were also waiting for the collapse of the United States and the collapse of the dollar. And they also artificially lowered the value of the dollar to 68 kopecks. Well, where is this USSR? Russia will soon be there too ...

[be.open]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQB7uWuWpBw

Interesting view

The Kaliningrad thing is interesting for sure.  I've had (for years) a spider-sense that this (and the entrance through Turkish controlled territory to the Black Sea) were major potential flash-points.

Interference of any sort by Lithuania seems to be a bald-faced abandonment of the agreements which Russia made when Lithuania joined NATO.

It seems that the topic of Ukraine has already pretty tired everyone, and now all the attention of the politically active world community is riveted to the Suwalki Gap.

[paxmao]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQB7uWuWpBw

Interesting view

The Kaliningrad thing is interesting for sure.  I've had (for years) a spider-sense that this (and the entrance through Turkish controlled territory to the Black Sea) were major potential flash-points.

Interference of any sort by Lithuania seems to be a bald-faced abandonment of the agreements which Russia made when Lithuania joined NATO.

It seems that the topic of Ukraine has already pretty tired everyone, and now all the attention of the politically active world community is riveted to the Suwalki Gap.

Yes, all that is left if for the RF army to recognise that they simply cannot threaten their neighbours as they used to, for Adolf Putin stop sending their young people to serve as targeting practice for the HIMARS and the M777 and keep whatever is left of their "fleet" in the Black Sea. I do not think that Adolf Putin is particularly good at understanding change, so it will take a few more thousands of young RF soldiers serving as worms habitats to get to the same point he was two months ago. Unless Europe or US get tired and send proper weaponry and support, then his own career and his life would be at stake.

On Lithuania, well, again this is Adolf Putin pretending to rule around his neighbours. It is becoming much more difficult, uh? Despite the "amazing" performance of the RF armed orcs - or maybe because of it.

Do you think that Adolf Putin, known what he now knows, would have gone into this war? I doubt it.

[bakasabo]

It seems that the topic of Ukraine has already pretty tired everyone

I think everyone are fed up with Russia and Ukraine, and like with covid - people move on, adopt to new world and continue living. Everyone tried to help, but now everyone are back to their own problems. Dont know how to better describe the situation with social media, but rarely I see war related articles on the first lines. Either propaganda has ended, or people had enough of it and news feed them with other problems.

"On Lithuania" - is Russia really that much interested in those Baltic states? Seems that these three small countries has nothing interesting, no resources, no strategic valuable territory, technology. They only resource they have is people.

[be.open]

"On Lithuania" - is Russia really that much interested in those Baltic states? Seems that these three small countries has nothing interesting, no resources, no strategic valuable territory, technology. They only resource they have is people.

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.

[suchmoon]

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

I agree, they should give Königsberg back to Germany. This would solve the transit problem.

[paxmao]

"On Lithuania" - is Russia really that much interested in those Baltic states? Seems that these three small countries has nothing interesting, no resources, no strategic valuable territory, technology. They only resource they have is people.

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.

Again, another "emperor" dreaming of the great Russia as others though of the great Germany ... does that sound any alarm to anyone? For me mostly sounds like going back to the Middle Age and all that God given missions to rule justified just by force (making the RF people pay for it of course).

Sorry to break this to you but Adolf Putin and Moscow do not "inherit" any short of automatic right to rule over people who speak Russian. There are plenty of people, even in the RF, that, given a choice would rather get rid of their government (and maybe they will do rather than joining the army and die if the war drags).

If he wants to attack a NATO country on that belief... well, not a great idea. Just saying.

About being an enclave, if we follow Adolf Putin example, there should be a referendum on the region. Firstly it -should be de-Putinised, de-militarised and then people would have a chance to decide if they would rather join Germany. Or maybe Spain, I heard there are around 20 Spanish speakers there  

[Branko]

So much wishful thinking on this thread... "when NATO disappears...", "when Poland invades Ukraines...", "when the RF wins...", "when RF circumvents sanctions...", "when China does this and that..."

This is becoming fantasyland, while people flee the RF by the hundreds of thousands, loose their jobs on western firms that close, see the Rouble struggle, see the EU starting a de-coupling process, see weapons sent to Ukraine...

How feeble are "predictions" when compared to the hard facts pointing exactly in the opposite direction. Is like Adolf Putin in the "World Economic Forum of St Petersburg" (chuckle) saying that RF economy is stable and going well... Following to the letter Sun Tzu's "when you are weak, try to appear strong" once more, with the problem being that the bluff has been called.

Ruble struggle? LOL
More like unstoppable

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub

[paxmao]

So much wishful thinking on this thread... "when NATO disappears...", "when Poland invades Ukraines...", "when the RF wins...", "when RF circumvents sanctions...", "when China does this and that..."

This is becoming fantasyland, while people flee the RF by the hundreds of thousands, loose their jobs on western firms that close, see the Rouble struggle, see the EU starting a de-coupling process, see weapons sent to Ukraine...

How feeble are "predictions" when compared to the hard facts pointing exactly in the opposite direction. Is like Adolf Putin in the "World Economic Forum of St Petersburg" (chuckle) saying that RF economy is stable and going well... Following to the letter Sun Tzu's "when you are weak, try to appear strong" once more, with the problem being that the bluff has been called.

Ruble struggle? LOL
More like unstoppable

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub

Unstoppable? More like a Ponzi scheme at interest rates between 11 and 20 lately. You see, once again you are looking only at the information that somehow proves you point. You can support the Rouble by raising the interest rates, but you will have to print a plenty to pay for that. But hey, by all means, sell whatever you have and buy Roubles. Are you doing it now? Ah... it feels different when is your money and not just a post uh?

[LTU_btc]

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.

Lithuania didn't started Kaliningrad blockade like Russia is trying to show. They simply don't allow to transit sanctioned goods through railway of Lithuania, what is normal thing.
Now you're saying that Russia needs these territories for their territorial integrity and self-identity, but didn't you said some time ago that Russia don't need other territories as they have enough their own land? And following your logic which you apply to Crimea and territory with Russian speaking majority, Kaliningrad isn't even Russian land, what Russia are doing there?

Ruble struggle? LOL
More like unstoppable

https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub

LOL, unstoppable. You see what do you want to see. Price of ruble is so artifficial that it can't be more obvious. And these measures to keep ruble strong will affect Russia in longer distance;
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-economy-is-tankingbut-the-ruble-is-soaring-11653559916

[suchmoon]

Unstoppable? More like a Ponzi scheme at interest rates between 11 and 20 lately. You see, once again you are looking only at the information that somehow proves you point. You can support the Rouble by raising the interest rates, but you will have to print a plenty to pay for that. But hey, by all means, sell whatever you have and buy Roubles. Are you doing it now? Ah... it feels different when is your money and not just a post uh?

Strong ruble is bad for export, which is all that Russia really has (oil/gas). It would be good for import but most imports are under sanctions.

This is part of the reason why ruble is rising - very few businesses in Russia need foreign currency anymore. And there are restrictions on moving it.

In Soviet Union the ruble was "equal" to about 1.5 USD. We (well, except Branko and be.open and a few other purveyors of Kremlinism) know how that ended.

[mikeywith]

This is part of the reason why ruble is rising

Another reason is the conversion of EUR to RUB for the gas sales, gas, and oil prices as you all know went through the roof, but why is this being discussed in the first place? this whole thing seems to be setting up for a long-term semi-cold war, Russia can't attack NATO and NATO can't attack Russia (the blessing or otherwise curse of nukes), the west imposed all sanctions they could afford, and Russia played their gas/oil card, it seems like both are running out of cards.

Eventually, all that will matter would be food and energy, it doesn't matter if your currency is worth 100x the other currency when you can't eat, it seems like the Russians are well prepared for this long-term war, Russia is food and energy independent so even if their economic collapses - they can still eat and have a warm winter, unfortunately (or fortunately depending on where you stand) the other side of the war isn't as independent.

I tend to believe that the west's plan is to provoke Russia and get it out of this current situation which seems to be favoring them, Kaliningrad is the first card they played, and more to come, eventually, they will have to sit down and talk, but as it stands, it doesn't seem like they have anything to offer to the Russians, so the plan is to find something to negotiate for.

In the end, Ukraine will need to sacrifice the Donbass region, Russia won't recover from the sanctions, and will be in deep shit when EU stops buying their gas in a few years, Biden won't run for president, Putin will be great hero to the brainwashed Russians, EU countries will start chasing Ukrainian refugees and sending them back to what's left from Ukraine, the world will move on and forget about Donbass like how they forgot about Crimea, they will forget about all the innocent souls that were killed in Ukraine, just like the hunderds of thousands the Russian killed in Chechnya or the Americans killed in Iraq.

[be.open]

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.

Lithuania didn't started Kaliningrad blockade like Russia is trying to show. They simply don't allow to transit sanctioned goods through railway of Lithuania, what is normal thing.

For Russia, this does not look normal, like a land blockade of its exclave.

Now you're saying that Russia needs these territories for their territorial integrity and self-identity, but didn't you said some time ago that Russia don't need other territories as they have enough their own land?

Exclaves are not a problem for Russia as long as good partnerships are maintained with neighboring states. Ukraine and the Baltic States are infected with Nazism and cultivate Russophobia - this exacerbates the issue of a land corridor to Kaliningrad and Crimea. I think this issue will be resolved.

And following your logic which you apply to Crimea and territory with Russian speaking majority, Kaliningrad isn't even Russian land, what Russia are doing there?

There are historical reasons why the Kaliningrad region is part of Russia, and they are quite reasonable. This is not a matter of logic, but a fait accompli.

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

I agree, they should give Königsberg back to Germany. This would solve the transit problem.

Secretary of the Russian Security Council Patrushev flew to Kaliningrad yesterday for a scheduled off-site meeting of the Security Council, but the issue of surrendering Koenigsberg to Germany is unlikely to be on the agenda. From Kaliningrad, the whole of Europe is very conveniently shot through by Iskanders. Although it is all shot through from the Caspian Sea with Calibers, but nonetheless.

Strong ruble is bad for export, which is all that Russia really has (oil/gas). It would be good for import but most imports are under sanctions.

This is part of the reason why ruble is rising - very few businesses in Russia need foreign currency anymore. And there are restrictions on moving it.

In Soviet Union the ruble was "equal" to about 1.5 USD. We (well, except Branko and be.open and a few other purveyors of Kremlinism) know how that ended.

But look how beautiful - we are now witnessing the energy suicide of Europe. In the Netherlands, three mothballed coal-fired thermal power plants have already been launched. In Germany, gas-intensive production is under threat of stopping and ceasing to exist. In the summer, there is no injection, but the consumption of gas from underground storage facilities. Russia will suffer some discomfort from Western sanctions, but what margin of safety does Europe have?

Unstoppable? More like a Ponzi scheme at interest rates between 11 and 20 lately. You see, once again you are looking only at the information that somehow proves you point. You can support the Rouble by raising the interest rates, but you will have to print a plenty to pay for that. But hey, by all means, sell whatever you have and buy Roubles. Are you doing it now? Ah... it feels different when is your money and not just a post uh?

You better follow the Ukrainian hryvnia, the key rate there is now 25%.

[bakasabo]

Lithuania has created a casus belli by restricting the transit of cargo to the Kaliningrad region. Russia will have to give an adequate response to this demarche.

In general, Russia needs the Baltic states so that the Kaliningrad region ceases to be an exclave. As well as the southern regions of Ukraine, which create a land corridor to the Crimea (and, logically, should be extended to Transnistria through control over the Nikolaev and Odessa regions). This can be considered an operation to restore the territorial integrity of Russia within the boundaries of its self-identity, as a territory with a predominance of the Russian-speaking population.

Lithuania didn't started Kaliningrad blockade like Russia is trying to show. They simply don't allow to transit sanctioned goods through railway of Lithuania, what is normal thing.
Now you're saying that Russia needs these territories for their territorial integrity and self-identity, but didn't you said some time ago that Russia don't need other territories as they have enough their own land? And following your logic which you apply to Crimea and territory with Russian speaking majority, Kaliningrad isn't even Russian land, what Russia are doing there?

Russian social media show this situation as Lithuania is preventing Russians to get to Kaliningrad. Other countries social media is throwing the idea, that after Ukraine, Russia will switch to Lithuania or Baltic states, to get access to Baltic sea, and ask NATO should increase military population in Baltic states.

In general, what would Russia get if they get territory of Baltic states? Do they really need Baltic sea, when they have huge ports in St. Peterburg? Do they have any allies left that have borders in Baltic sea? See no logic in conquering those lands.

[tvbcof]

Russian social media show this situation as Lithuania is preventing Russians to get to Kaliningrad. Other countries social media is throwing the idea, that after Ukraine, Russia will switch to Lithuania or Baltic states, to get access to Baltic sea, and ask NATO should increase military population in Baltic states.

Whoever controls Lithuania seems dead set on somehow getting the Russians to attack them.

Honestly, after NATO's performance both militarily and ethically in ZioNazi Ukraine, there must be a whole lot more people moving to the shit-can NATO frame of mind.  Seems to be all risk/pain and no gain, and especially with piss-ant nobodies like Lithuania trying to goad Russia in an attack which would make every one of them a target.

Was just reading about how one could get out of NATO (if, say, they find themselves being dressed out as a sacrificial lamb.)  It's not super easy or quick.  I wonder if it might be possible to do a quick-n-dirty coup and name-change of the nation in order to expediently bail on the evil organization before it's too late.

In general, what would Russia get if they get territory of Baltic states? Do they really need Baltic sea, when they have huge ports in St. Peterburg? Do they have any allies left that have borders in Baltic sea? See no logic in conquering those lands.

That port still ices up in spite of 'global warming'.  I just read that it had record amounts of ice a few years ago.  Of course this makes perfect sense in the 'science' of 'climate change', but just like the emperor and his new clothes, only 'real scientists' can understand it.

[johhnyUA]

Dron kamikaze from Aliexpress wiped out russian oil refinery.

Epic video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFdHIjSFS0s

Maybe you can't understand words (most of them is phrases like "GODDAMMIT motherfucka, epic shit" ) but you can feel emotions of russians from video 

[suchmoon]

Dron kamikaze from Aliexpress wiped out russian oil refinery.

Epic video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFdHIjSFS0s

Maybe you can't understand words (most of them is phrases like "GODDAMMIT motherfucka, epic shit" ) but you can feel emotions of russians from video 

10 seconds before that: "Ukrainian? Of course not."

BTW this buzzing contraption made it 100+ km into Russian-controlled territory. Some general is gonna lose his job when (if?) Putin finds out.