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1541  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Expect The Bear Season. on: August 16, 2022, 12:22:55 PM
Here is the official document so that everyone can see,



https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20220706_announcement_en.pdf

So it's either the recipient has choice of lump sum repayment, cash, bitcoin and or bitcoin cash.

Chances are there will be will availing of the lump sump here, and maybe few on crypto as they have suffered enough of waiting for years. And with that said, cash will be the better options, unless they still want to go to and hold their bitcoin and or bitcoin cash in this bear market.

And there is also an assignment, meaning not all claimants will get everything at the same time (cash or crypto). Going to be a slow process for August up to the end of the year or when all payments have been made.

And thanks to this kind of FUD, members are now well aware as to what will go down to this Mt. Gox repayment program if it has an effect on the market to put it below the last lowest low of $17,500.

We don't know how many of these people will choose which option, but everyone assumes the worst, which is a 2 billion USD dump.
This will not happen for numerous reasons like

Some people choosing crypto, even if they're planning to sell later. I'd choose this option because I wouldn't want to rely on the exchange rate of their choice. I'd rather do it myself knowing exactly how much I'll get after the sale. With the volatility we're experiencing right now, waiting a week can mean you'll get 2k USD more for your bitcoin or 2k less, which for me would be a big deal. Usually I don't make 2k in a month.

If the distribution begins next month it will continue at least until the end of the year. This illiquid market can't handle a 2 billion dump in a day, but it can do it if the sale takes place over a period of 3 months.
1542  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will you stop gamble if your girl friend insists ? on: August 12, 2022, 09:27:06 PM
What I have noticed about girls is that they do not want anything that waste money or take from someone than give. That is the reason you will see them not gambling at all, only few of them are gambling if compared with guys.

They don't want you to waste money on gambling, but if she wants to go to a beauty salon or wants you to buy here jewelry that's not a wast. Flowers are not a waste, picking her up in your car and driving her home is not a waste, everything you do to satisfy her needs is good, but when you have your needs to satisfy that's a different story, even if you're not using her money but your own.

Ultimately it comes down to whether you're going to really stop or lie to her. Most gamblers would choose to lie to satisfy a woman, that's the truth.
1543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crypto Veterans and Legendaries: Need Advice on my Bitcoin Strategy on: August 12, 2022, 09:14:07 PM
I will start with buying 3 BTC for a start. Starting from today. I will gradually put in around $200k into BTC.

Today is August 12th.

I MISSED THE BOTTOM  Angry

I should have bought it at $17.5K. It would have been good enough for me and I still did not buy waiting for $10k.
At the top I sold at good enough. I should have bought back in at good enough. Mistake.

Now BTC is at $24k and I have 0 BTC. Haven't bought in yet!


Is this thread intended as a joke? If not, you're doing your best for it to be the example of a typical bitcoin investor who sees bitcoin at 60k and says he'll buy it when it falls. When it starts falling it's never a good time. The price is never low enough.

-50% - nope
-60% - nope
-70% - I'll wait some more...
Fear and greed at all time low? Why would I buy now?

A while later...

-those fools are buying. It's obviously a fake rally. A dead cat bounce.
-damn did I miss the bottom? It's recovering so maybe there will be another dip.
-no dip still, we went back to -60% from ATH, it will correct again so I won't buy yet
-it went to 50% ATH - a fake rally.
-what? It reached the old ATH once again, now I won't buy it's too expensive!
-I'll wait for another dip and then I'll buy for sure! It's fine though, I'll have more fiat ready.

New ath 100k - when it goes down 60% I'll start buying. Wait, that's going to be $40k and I had a chance to buy at 17... I'm so unlucky! Stupid bitcoin!
1544  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Japanese Animation Slot Machines on: August 12, 2022, 08:51:22 PM
I like the idea of a touchscreen implemented into the game. I think this is the evolution of gambling since physical slot machines with a turning drum require more maintenance and cannot be rethemed that easily. With electronic machines you can put any theme you like within minutes and when one show becomes unpopular use another that's on top at the moment.

As for me liking the machine, I'm not feeling this theme though. I know some people are and this is a big culture in Japan. I like animated movies, but not the ones that use cute little girls that moan all the time to attract boys.
1545  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 5 truths about bitcoin, in my opinion? on: August 12, 2022, 08:31:42 PM
I would guess that the cycles are growing smaller as well. Like when it moved from just under a dollar to over 30 dollars that was x30+ and more, which means when it moved from 100 bucks or so to 1400 dollars in 2014 that was also a bit 14x give or take, and when it moved from 700 dollars to 20k that was about a good chunk I will have to agree with that, but then we moved from 10k to 60k which was just 6x, 7x if you count 68k as 70k.

As we can see, people who are investing now, will still make a good money, better than any stock they can pick or gold, but it wouldn't be as good as the early birds who made x100 and then some on their bitcoin if they are still holding it.

That's completely normal as volatility always decreases when an asset matures. More users means more stable environment, less coins in the hands of a single individual and so on.

Cycles getting smaller is maybe not the best description. They are getting less volatile but longer. If you count how many days it took for bitcoin to bottom after the 2013 peak and do the same with 2018, you'll see that it took more time and will possibly again take more this time, taking us into 2023. You never know a pattern is valid until it confirms.
1546  Economy / Speculation / Re: do u think the BTC bottom is in...? on: August 12, 2022, 07:59:49 PM
Personally I'm about 80% confident the bottom is in, based on comparisons to 2015 and 2019 of when a bottom is formed. I doubt I'll feel more than 80% confident until a significant macro higher low is formed, maybe sometime end of the year or next year, or otherwise a new ATH is made. Still waiting for network growth to return in order for price to move higher though, even though it's irrelevant to the bottom being in.

I agree with you. There's a small chance, maybe that 20% you're talking about, that we hit 6k of 2018 by being at 23k and a crash to 3k which would be something like 12k-15k range. To be honest this ranges are pretty similar if we look at what the price is doing, but also very different because we did not go to 4k then back to 6k and again to 3k, like this year when we hit a low and returned back to the 200 week average.

To be honest this year looks very unnatural on the charts like the selling pressure is too high, the highest ever in history actually. You can see that it's a manipulated crash made by all those dumps of Tera and Tesla et al.
1547  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sources of gambling news on: August 12, 2022, 07:25:54 PM
It makes no sense to ask for gambling news sites because they are, first of all, easily accessible and easy to find, and also very regionalized. Like in the UK they will cover news about local football teams and local news about casinos openings or sites getting their license approved. You need to know what you're looking for. Also, gambling and crypto gambling are two different things. Crypto is still a niche that isn't covered by many of these sites. If you want crypto casino news you'll probably find more information here on the forum.
1548  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion on: August 11, 2022, 09:58:38 PM
While I agree that the sanctions haven't hit Russia as much as was anticipated and some pretty smart financial policies helped the fiat currency stabilize, I also have a couple of questions. First is that the Bloomberg article is based on the Bank of Russia publication. If Russians lied they wouldn't invade, lied that they didn't torture civilians in Bucha, and that they didn't bomb Mariupol, then HOW do we know that they're not lying right now with this report? What's stopping Russian bank from simply writing up pretty numbers to show they're doing great while the reality is far from great?
Then look at things like food prices which, according to Russian sources, are roughly a quarter more than a year ago (but some estimates say even higher than that), and car prices are also up by 23% since the start of the full-scale war. I'd take these pretty numbers on a Russian website with a huge grain of salt, but also agree that much more must be done to prevent Russia from comfortably financing its current war.

That's what they're doing, you're right. I suspect the estimation is based on the current exchange rate of usd to ruble in Russia. We all know that this exchange was artificially inflated by Russia spending some of their gold to pump up ruble prices and demanding countries to pay for international trade in rubles. Some countries like Bulgaria, Finland and Poland refused to pay, but there are some who did, mainly Germany - a country that is making a fool of itself in the EU. First they blocked aid coming to Ukraine from the UK, refusing to let it pass through, then, when Ukraine requested military help, Germany said it cannot spare any vehicles because they're all being used, then we heard they're paying Russia despite sanctions... I say fuck Germany, the supposed leader of the EU, who goes against its own vote and openly supports the aggressor, that the whole Europe condemns. The world should learn from this conflict and see which countries are really on which side of this conflict.
France isn't much better as it delivered military equipment to Russia during the conflict, despite sanctions, and of course agreed to use the ruble.
1549  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does bitcoin dump have any impact on gamblers ? on: August 11, 2022, 09:49:09 PM
What's there to discuss? One bitcoin is one bitcoin.

If you gamble with fiat money and use bitcoin just to avoid government bans or reach sites that aren't available with fiat, price won't matter to you. You always cash out your BTC earnings and turn them into fiat when you're done and you buy it with fiat every time you go to a casino - you're unaffected.

If you're a bitcoin holder who wants to spend some of your stash in a casino, you'll also be unaffected because if bitcoin is worth half of what it used to be, you can bet twice more, keeping the bet at the same level as it used to be in fiat terms. If you bet $10 in BTC and double it, you'll have $20 in Bitcoin. It's that simple.
1550  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What If Bitcoin Fall?? on: August 11, 2022, 09:33:47 PM
If it falls then it falls. I always curb my expectations in the bear market and thanks to this I can face the negativity should it come.
When we fell below 20k I knew this is as much blood on the streets as it gets and fear&greed index confirmed it. We were at one of the lowest levels in history.
That said, next year is going to be like 2020, a slow but sure recovery. If you have some fiat money at hand, you better be ready.
1551  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: How Problem Gambler Feels After Losing on: August 11, 2022, 09:21:56 PM
Probably feels bad. I'm not a problem gambler. I rarely play and never lose a lot of money but it always feels bad to lose. The more you lose, the more time you waste, the worse it feels. Probably the most challenging for the gambler's mind is losing someone else's money and gambling against the advice of your loved ones. After losing you know that you'll not only have to face the loss of money but also come back home and face the people who told you not to do it.
1552  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What will be running in your mind if Bitcoin reaches $1000 again on: August 10, 2022, 09:54:20 PM
First of all I don’t think bitcoin will ever hit $1000 again, certainly not in our lifetime. If it did though, I would be worried because I have a lot of money stored in bitcoin. Once the worry passed though I would most likely put every fiat I have in because it’s he a great opportunity to make very easy profit.

It won't go there because of the mentality of people like you and me. The DCA method is becoming more popular and people are worried by drops but they really want to have more bitcoins and this drive is strong enough to keep bitcoin afloat for a long time. Bitcoin lost 70% and people are still buying it. If it lost 80% there would be more people buying and such are the laws of the free market that sellers cannot keep selling indefinitely. They will run out of money and then people who DCA will slowly push us back up. The lower we fall the more time it will take but it will happen.
1553  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What percentage of people in the USA do you think haven't paid taxes on trades? on: August 10, 2022, 09:43:00 PM
I don't live in the US and in the EU we don't have to report any crypto - crypto trades. Only cashing out is a taxable event and not in every country. I've never reported anything crypto relate. I want to stay as much under the radar as I can, so I mainly trade for fiat in a physical exchange.

That said, probably 50% of Americans don't know they should report crypto-crypto trades or know but don't do it anyway. If this was allowed in my country and then they decided it isn't anymore and I should come clean about my crypto, I wouldn't do it. I'd rather not trade at all then show my wallets to those vultures.
1554  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Real most rewarding Crypto Casino? on: August 10, 2022, 09:17:38 PM
There cannot be a single answer to this question because each of the casinos, particularly on-line where there is virtually unlimited levels of competence among the platforms, have to specialise in some of the games. Slots casinos have a hard time competing and you cannot just do it by giving away the earnings, so specialisation, change and variety make the concept of "best one" very changing.

You're right and this is especially true for OP who wants to focus on high RTP. Usually casinos operate on the highest RTP they can to make profit and stay competitive. They can offer you various bonuses and giveaways but they can't manipulate RTP too much.
Usually in this industry it comes to whether you have a license or not, rig games or not, require KYC or not. The rewards are similar as long as the casino is legit and plays fair.
1555  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If the Governments Planned to Keep the Limited 21 Millions BTC in Their Custody on: August 10, 2022, 09:01:44 PM
A couple questions to your theory OP.

I hold a part of that 21 million. How would the goverment buy my coins? There's many bitcoiners around the world who wouldn't sell if they saw aggressive buying from a party, in this case a government.
It's the same kind of situation as if you owned a piece of land worth $100k and all of a sudden somebody came and offered $300k to buy it. You'd think they know something. Maybe there's oil or some other natural resource? Maybe there's a plan for a shopping center to be built and they want to flip the land for even more than they're offering you?  

What about people who have millions and don't need fiat now? If someone came and gave them 50k USD for a bitcoin they wouldn't sell and if the same party came a month later offering 100k they also wouldn't sell. Holding money that's safe from inflation and surveillance maybe more important to them, since they already have 10 million in real estate and another 10 in stocks.

There's no single entity like a government or a company that would be able to buy bitcoin at this point. All they'd do is buy what's available on exchanges and drive up price to insane levels like a million USD because if you'd reduce coins on exchanges by 80 or 90% you'd introduce insane volatility. You'd have bitcoin swing to 100k and back to 50k daily.
1556  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The US government is targeting mixers. Are BTC mixers next? on: August 09, 2022, 06:06:59 PM
I like how the secretary thinks that the mixer WAS the terrorist group and that group set up the mixer to launder money. If other laws are also made by mistake because someone thought something about something, we are fucked.

The US can only ban thing on their own land. They can't ban a mixer that operates somewhere in Asia and is accessible all around the world. Look how they wanted to ban torrents. They Closed down TPB, but if you want to get a movie using a torrent, you can do it even easier and faster than in the times of TPB.
1557  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Did china all ready apoligized about covid 19 ?also did china pay? on: August 08, 2022, 09:57:17 PM
The only blame is on people who didn't respect the quarantine regulations

It's up to countries to enforce the rules in the first place. If China would play fair it wouldn't allow people to travel freely when they detected covid in their country, which was in late 2019, but they kept it a secret until early 2020. Only after cases started to appear in large numbers all around the world and the trail led to China, they took some of the blame and said the virus was detected on the market in Wuhan. China should be blamed for this situation and I think they should apologize. Not for covid itself, although I think they were trying to experiment on it, but for not warning the world of what was coming.
1558  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Portuguese Banks Stop the use of Cryptos (Bitcoin) on: August 08, 2022, 09:44:23 PM
These governments can't decide what they want to do with cryptocurrencies and this is making them look like they don't have a strong opinion, can't and shouldn't lead countries if they change their minds every year. The EU wanted to be crypto-friendly but then someone scared politicians by telling them mining could take too much electricity and it's not green enough so now they're putting pressure on banks to decrease the number of active crypto users.
Portugal is not the first and not the last here. 2 years ago Russia was supposed to allow for cryptocurrency exchange, then they were planning to ban it because they wanted to start their centralized crypto, then they wanted countries to avoid sanctions by paying them in cryptocurrencies and then they banned it. India also can't decide if they want to allow it or ban it. They're all one big joke to me.
1559  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How could this be true, do you think is possible for Elon Musk to walk away? on: August 05, 2022, 09:54:29 PM
Twitter hired some mega legal corporation to make sure they get their billion dollar settlement, Elon Musk has also employed a large law firm to fight his battle.

My prediction is a bunch of lawyers making a lot of money, and both parties losing in the end. Twitter would love nothing more than to get Elon Musk to pay 54 bucks a share for a worthless social media platform that has a market value of half that. This won't happen. Musk would like to back out of the deal without paying the billion dollar breakup fee. This probably won't happen.

He's using the bot accounts as an excuse for his arrogance in overpaying for a company that he was out of his mind to purchase. Call it a buyer's remorse, if you will. I don't doubt twitter is riddled with bot accounts, I just don't believe this is the reason he's backing out of the deal, oppose to the fact he's paying 15-20 billion over the market rate for a social media platform.

Maybe it was his plan all along. He had a beef with twitter over these bots and deleted tweets, so he did what he does best and stirred it up to make all the dirt come to the surface and then walked away.
I don't know how much twitter is really worth and how much Musk knew before he made the offer, but he's a troll who likes attention and a person who always gets hyped about doing something and then abandons the idea, like he did with so many of his tech projects.
1560  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Casino Games or Gambling Considered Sports, really! on: August 05, 2022, 09:42:43 PM
Pool is a sport, that's not new to me. Bowling is also a sport, so is golf, so why not pool. It requires skill and precision, just like golf, bowling, and many other sports, like shooting or archery.
As far as poker goes, it requires a lot more luck than what is traditionally considered a sport, but I can understand that people are considering it a sport, because you can simply be good at it.
Every activity that you can compete in and where skill level rises with time and knowledge of the game can be considered a sport.
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