Right now, Russia is at a very interesting historical crossroads. Figuratively speaking, she needs to make a very difficult choice between two different paths of development, one of which is "easy" and the other is "right". The "easy" way is to continue to be a raw materials appendage and a gas station country, reorienting logistics routes from West to East. The "right" way is to block all the ways of capital outflow from the country to focus on internal development. Of course, this division is figurative, these two paths are largely intertwined and one does not exclude the other, it is more a matter of prioritization. But in many ways, it is the internal policy of the regulator in relation to the ruble exchange rate that will be a reliable indicator of which path Russia has chosen as its main priority.

The logic is very simple - Ukraine now really needs some kind of significant military victory over Russia, so that the flow of military aid from the West will increase significantly and not dry up at all. And for this, to provoke Russia into a suicidal assault on the powerful fortified areas in Avdiivka is a good enough idea. Yesterday, at an economic forum in St. Petersburg, Putin said that a direct assault on Avdiivka is not expedient (in other words, Russia cannot afford it now).

Now, in response, explain what logic Russia has to shell the residential areas of Donetsk, when the DPR is an ally of Russia in this operation and the main goal of Russia is to protect the Donbass?

Crimea became part of Russia in 2014 and this is not a subject for negotiations with Ukraine. Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are no longer a subject for negotiations with Ukraine. Odessa and Nikolaev regions are not yet under the control of Russia, but definitely in the sphere of its interests. Ukraine's problem is that it will not be able to pay off only these areas so that Russia stops its military operation. Because the goals of the operation declared by Putin include the whole of Ukraine (and it’s good if they are limited only to it). And it is unlikely that Ukraine is ready to give up all of its territory in exchange for a cessation of hostilities with Russia, so I do not see any prospects for peace negotiations now, at least with Zelensky. And what is Biden ready to offer Putin in exchange for ending the military operation in Ukraine?.

A typical Ukrainian peremoga, is the Vasily Bekh rescue tugboat with a civilian crew.

Donetsk is randomly fired on residential areas from Avdiivka in order to provoke Russia to storm it, which will entail many human casualties, which Russian generals want to avoid in every possible way, because there are very powerful fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I think Avdeevka has a chance to repeat the fate of Azovstal and become the second object in Ukraine that will have to be bombed with heavy high-explosive bombs.

Let me remind you that Ukraine from the beginning of the operation and still carries out the transit of Russian gas through its territory to Europe and receives money from Gazprom for this. Don't you think it's too hypocritical to blame others for what you do yourself?

One of the problems with nuclear power is that everything is very slow there, it will take years, if not decades, to fully resume the European nuclear program. Another problem is with the source of enriched uranium supplies, which is approximately 40% controlled by Russia. There are also difficulties with unenriched uranium, it simply does not exist in Europe, and Africa does not seem to have the necessary enthusiasm to be a cash cow for its former colonialists. Another problem is the dramatic drop in the level of competence of European engineers in nuclear power. France's attempt to build a nuclear power plant in Finland in the early 2000s ended in complete failure, exceeding the original budget by three times. In general, there are a number of serious difficulties for Europe in this direction. And given that the most powerful Zaporozhye NPP in Europe actually left the European energy system and moved into the Russian energy system, there are already difficulties with load balancing in Europe, because windmills and solar panels are an unstable source of electricity, energy generation at night and in the absence of wind (or on the contrary, if the wind is too strong), it can drop to zero on them.

I don’t know what is in the head of European politicians who are overly enthusiastic about the green agenda, but there is a suspicion, turning into confidence, that there is burnt porridge.

The US dollar is experiencing problems with inflation, that is, it is getting cheaper. The world's leading currencies, such as the euro, pound and yen, are depreciating against the dollar, that is, they are depreciating even more. It seems that the world economy can now be characterized by the words recession and stagflation. Russia is watching the ongoing processes, but does not seek to fall into this abyss along with everyone else, so the Central Bank of Russia does not make efforts to devalue the ruble, even if it is unprofitable for exporters. It is more important to maintain the stability of the domestic market and prevent devaluation shocks for the population. Russia has a huge margin of safety due to the National Welfare Fund and many years of living with a budget surplus. Let the dollar fall - the ruble will not fall even faster, but rather will strengthen, I expect a return to the level before 2014, when the dollar was worth 30-35 rubles.

The Siemens turbine was taken to Canada for repairs and cannot be brought back due to sanctions. Gazprom stopped another turbine "due to the impossibility of safe operation." As a result, in two days, the volume of gas through Nord Stream fell from 170 to 67 million tons per day, and the price of gas in Europe increased by 40%.

ps Canada reports talks with Germany on Siemens-made Nord Stream 1 equipment

Well, walk around the market, look for other options. It looks like Nord Stream will close completely soon and gas in Europe will rise in price even more, if +40% to the price in a couple of days seems not enough for you. Surely, for such a good price, there are other gas suppliers to Europe, except for Russia.

I do not trust the banking system, not because it is Russian, but because it is a banking system. That's why I'm here.

The sanctions of 2014 immediately halved the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and, accordingly, many goods also doubled in price, and the ruble exchange rate never returned back then, unlike the events of this spring. Therefore, every Russian painfully felt the sanctions of 2014 on his pocket. Now the ruble exchange rate has again fallen by half at first, but then quickly recovered to its original level and even better, so the impact of sanctions is much less noticeable.

Maybe in response you will share your impressions of how to live in a bankrupt country with an economy paralyzed by military operations, with a halved GDP, devaluation of the hryvnia and a key rate of 25%, which makes any commercial activity impossible except for short-term speculation? What is it like to be completely dependent on subsidies and handouts from the West?

I seriously think that everything is fine in Russia even now. You can always do something better, but this is not a reason to indiscriminately deny existing achievements. Thanks for the kind words.

The world has been inspired by the ideas of globalization for quite a long time, and as a result, the world economy turned out to be saturated with interdependencies, many of which are hidden and not obvious, and their influence is fully manifested only at the moment of rupture of ties. In general, Russia is doing well, with little debt, a chronic budget surplus, food security, an abundance of energy resources and a colossal surplus of raw materials - all this allows us to look to the future with confidence. The West underestimated the influence of Russia on the world economy, if you look at the extractive industries and subtract all sorts of inedible futures and services, you will get Russia's share in the world economy not 1.5%, but at least 6.5% (or even all 10%). And if Western sanctions threaten Russia with the speed of sustainable development, they put the West itself on the brink of existence. I will illustrate the idea with a fresh example. The other day, Canada refused to return a Siemens turbine to Gazprom from repair due to sanctions, and Gazprom had to reduce gas transmission through Nord Stream by two thirds, which caused the price of gas to rise by 25%. It turns out that the sanctions were imposed against Russia, and it is Europe that suffers from them first of all. Moreover, the United States introduces sanctions against Russia very selectively and often cancels it if it becomes unprofitable for it. I think that Biden and Putin agreed during the meeting last year how to divide Europe. Europe in this story is definitely a trophy and a victim, it pays for everything.

Difficult to answer, I don't know what kind of law you mean, please clarify. I don't keep large savings in a bank deposit.

My financial situation has known better times than today. But I take this calmly, during the sanctions in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, it was much worse, during the crypto winter in 2018-19, perhaps, too. I do not make of consumption a religion or a cult.

What does self-hypnosis have to do with it, I look at things realistically. As recently as yesterday, David Arakhamia, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, gave an interview in Washington, during which, among other things, he voiced two curious things:
1. Ukraine's negotiating position is rather weak.
2. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lose about 1,000 people killed and wounded per day.

In other words, Ukraine cannot fight effectively and cannot negotiate peace. All hope is for another wunderwaffe of NATO, from which there will be no one to shoot.

Let's be honest, raising the rate by 75 basis points (ie 0.75%) will not solve the inflation problem in the US. Let me remind you that in 1980 the Fed had to raise the rate to 20% to curb inflation after the oil crisis. Now the Fed, in my opinion, needs to raise the rate to at least 10% in order to bring the situation with prices under control, but this will lead to disastrous consequences for the stock market and cause a whole wave of corporate bankruptcies, not to mention enormous difficulties for the US government to service external debt.

From my small town in the Urals, a special forces platoon has already left two times on a combat mission to Ukraine and returned after a planned rotation, loss of personnel 0%. You better watch your losses, terrifying figures are leaking from various sources that the irretrievable losses of Ukraine in killed and missing already exceed 200,000 soldiers.

Zero. There are no NATO warships in the Black Sea, with the exception of Turkish ones. Turkey strictly observes the Montreux Convention. I see that you do not understand the subject at all, so I will not analyze your propaganda nonsense in detail, especially since the economy branch is not the right place for this.

It is interesting that while you, foaming at the mouth, reasonably argued to me that Ukraine signed and ratified the Geneva Convention for the Protection of Civilians in Wartime, the Armed Forces of Ukraine from multiple launch rocket systems randomly shelled residential areas of Donetsk, including the market and the maternity hospital, that the representative of the UN Secretary General called yesterday a clear violation of humanitarian law. What hypocrisy.

Well, not bad - you convinced me. I admit that I was wrong in this case, although you provided a link to another convention (on the protection of the rights of civilians, although it was originally about the treatment of prisoners of war) and deleted my negative review.

It is not true. The last face-to-face round of talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey at the end of March. After that, there were several more virtual rounds, during which Ukraine abruptly changed its position and retreated from previously reached agreements, refusing to extend security guarantees to the Donbass and Crimea. It seems that on May 17 the negotiation process completely stopped. The history of the negotiation process can be read for example here.

Your link indicates that Ukraine signed the Geneva Convention in 1949 and ratified it in 1954. This is bullshit, because Ukraine was not an independent state either in 1949 or 1954, and being a union republic within the USSR, it could not do anything like that in principle sign and ratify. After the collapse of the USSR and Ukraine gaining independence, it was not Ukraine, but Russia that became the legal successor of the USSR, taking on, among other things, all the debts. Ukraine could not revoke the Geneva Convention, because, in principle, it never signed or ratified it.

ps You pretty much tired me with your false accusations and I left you a negative review. Keep in mind, I'm on the DT1 trust list and you're risking your bounty hunter career by spreading false accusations against me.

Meanwhile, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak voiced the scale of the problems of the Ukrainian army:

Such an amount of military equipment, in his opinion, needs to be delivered to the front line and an appropriate number of Ukrainian soldiers capable of operating it should be trained in order to achieve parity with Russia. On June 16, Macron, Draghi and Scholz are planning to fly to Kyiv, I think they will try to convince Zelensky of the need to resume peace talks. Let's see.

A noticeable increase in prices was in March. For example, computer hardware immediately doubled in price at the beginning of the operation, and it was painful. Then Putin announced "gas for rubles", the ruble began to strengthen and prices crept down, now computer hardware is cheaper than at the beginning of the operation. Of the products, natural coffee and tea have sharply risen in price, now their prices have decreased, but still about 1.5x from the beginning of February. There was no shortage of goods and empty shelves in stores. Prices for housing (electricity, etc.) and gasoline have not changed. Cars and household furniture have risen in price very noticeably. In general, everything is much better than expected in late February and early March. Perhaps the negative effect of Western sanctions will manifest itself in a year or two, because you have to buy food, fill up a car and pay for housing on a regular basis, and with the purchase of a new sofa it is quite possible to wait.

You are trying in vain to insult my country. I understand that your nerves are naughty in the absence of any successes and victories of Ukraine for a long time, but nevertheless, try to control yourself. Note that I do not allow myself to quibble over Ukraine's failures on the battlefield, although I have a huge supply of materials for this (from the recent joy of Ukrainians from a downed plane, which then turned out to be Ukrainian - this was on the day when Ukraine lost to Wales by scoring an own goal, or even more recent mediocre loss of a warship in Ochakovo and decommissioning of the second ship due to the low combat readiness of the crew, etc.). I have respect for Ukraine, because its soldiers often show fortitude in battle, even without any chance of success. It's just that there were no such chances even three months ago, and at least I am consistent in my position on this issue. It's funny to watch how European politicians change their shoes on the fly and more and more often they hear their statements that they say it's time to end this massacre of babies, even if for Ukraine it is fraught with territorial concessions. I think one day you will have to change your shoes when this operation ends with the unconditional surrender of Ukraine, because Russia no longer accepts another outcome.