Don't know exactly when the pivot will be, but make no mistake, this will be a shorter rate hike cycle than in 2007-2008.

The Fed is bailing out these failing regional banks with 1-year loans for cash on the face value of their now underwater bonds. This is so they don't have a writedown on their portfolios (i.e., not a loss on collateral because it's a loan vs. a sale). The banks will then presumably cover the loans by selling the bonds when rates are back down (and thus face value back up) to the level it was when they first bought the bonds.

Wanna hazard a guess when that will be? Ha ha, SOON.

And where is the Fed getting all this cash when their balance sheet is supposedly shrinking? Can you say 'Shadow QE'? Lol.

Gold broke through its ATH yesterday.

The 1-month T-Bill yield jumped an entire 1.0 bps at the open this morning.

Probably nothin'... nothing to see here, move along.

The great thing about having your own 'head canon' of certain Universe franchises is that you can mentally include what you liked and exclude what you didn't.

For me:

Star Wars = First 6 movies + Rogue One + Clone Wars show +(some of the EU/Legends novels)

Matrix = First movie (the others were an abomination and don't exist)

Terminator = First and Second movies only

Alien = First and Second movies only

etc., etc.

June 20, 2007:
After receiving margin calls, Bear Stearns bailed out two of its hedge funds with $20 billion of exposure to collateralized debt obligations including subprime mortgages.

Bear Stearns said that "the problem was contained".


May 2nd, 2023:
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: 'This part of the crisis is over' after First Republic takeover.

Dimon said there’s a chance “another smaller” bank fails, but “this pretty much resolves them all.”

“I think the banking system is very stable,” he said. While there are still concerns over rising interest rates and the potential for a recession, “everyone should just take a deep breath.”

Dimon’s comments echo earlier statements made last month, when he told CNN “I think we’re getting near the end of this particular crisis.”




This is not the 'all clear'...this is just the beginning.

Not saying I disagree with your playout of events, but just know that a '$40-50k peak during summer' and then a fall back to $30K is the very definition of a bull trap.  

And quite a big one at that.

^^^^^^^^^^^

Hot take: We are here, and my estimate is that we will remain in this range, barting up and down, throughout 2023 and possibly into 2024.

Don't see any reason on the horizon for that to change until closer to halving. There will be a number of 'head fakes' along the way.

The only thing that could really alter this range bound is if Fed rates dropped by at least 2% or more.

I can tell you from direct experience, the first thing about retiring or ending a career that you have to contend with is a loss of identity.

After many decades, a career and a title defines you to both yourself and the people around you. When you retire, you move from "I am an X" to "I was an X". So who am I now? _{(Of course it doesn't help that your friends and family will treat you differently, treat you like a bum because you are not slaving away at a job anymore like they still are. But that's a different story.)}

You are, of course, the same person you were before all the career stuff even began, you just have lost that sense of self.

What helps to make the transition easier is to think of yourself in terms verbs instead of nouns. You are not a title, you are a person who does interesting stuff throughout your life. Instead of "I was a Sr. Project Manager, and now I'm a nothing" you say to yourself "I did project management for a while. Now I do [insert whatever interests or hobbies you have here]."

When you will (soon) see the Tech sector begin to rally and take off, like it has in the past...

...then you will realize what all this silly ChatGPT/OpenAI/Bard shit over the past year has really been about.

All it will need is a little push (cheap debt).



_{plant the seeds...the next big thing...plant the seeds...}

OT:

The MSM is calling for a market drop within the next few weeks. Not saying there won't be one, but it's pretty obvious that they are baiting the shorts into a bear trap.

Will the Fed raise another .25 bpp into this recession? Most likely. Because you can't fix stupid.

But will it likely signal the end to more Fed rate hikes? Most likely. Because shit is breaking down everywhere, all at once.

The whales know this, they know that the Fed is on the precipice of a rate pivot, hence the baiting the shorts into a bear trap. The whales are just looking for a better entry into the upcoming bull market.

If Bitcoin dips hard, BTFD.

Say what you want about Coinbase, but you gotta give Brian A. some cred to have the balls to do this:

Coinbase sues SEC after months of silence from federal regulator
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/coinbase-sues-sec-after-months-of-silence-from-federal-regulator.html

It's high time that Gary and his cronies at the SEC quit jerking exchanges and brokers around on crypto policy/compliance and make things crystal fkn clear.

Right now it's clear as mud, just the way the SEC likes it, so they can do whatever they want to whomever they want whenever they want.

They just want to be fkn bullies.

If you want to know what the next cycle top will be, just wait for another Bitcoin prophet like PlanB to come out with some bogus model claiming the "assured" price number it'll cross, and all the shill bots coming out to support that theory all over social media.

The next top will fall well short of that number, whatever the fuck it is. Guaranteed.  

EDIT: Here ya go, the MSM has already started the bs:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/bitcoin-btc-price-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered.html

When people say that "BiTcOIn iS ThE WoRSe InVEsTMeNT EvAr", it's because they are constantly looking at the price graph all wrong:



It's the invisible price line that TPTB definitely do NOT want the Average Joe public to see or realize. Hence the massive, ongoing volatility to keep people scared away.

The Wall Street grifts never cease to amaze me. But I guess they learned from the best (shitcoin ICOs and DeFi scams).

WTAF.   

https://www.cnbc.com/select/what-is-stock-lending/

Pretty obvious the "Sell in May and go away" phenom came early to Bitcoin.

Again.

It's laughable at this point the yearly regularly of these buying/selling patterns. 

We need a new poll.

I'm curious what people think the price will be by these dates:

6/15/2023

9/15/2023

12/28/2023

If the Fed ever pivots on rate hikes, you can be absolutely, positively sure that banks' troubles will (in the short term) be resolved on the surface.

Because nothing resolves a bank's short term problems more than more cheap debt to lend out and more liquidity.

Bitcoin may temporarily pull back because of lowered rates, but it'll soon continue it's upward trajectory because (at least for now) Wall Street treats it as just another equity to be exploited. And all equities gain when debt is cheap.

Not sure if I'm saying the same as what you are saying or reading it the same way, but the way I see this whole pursuit of a stablecoin thing is:

1. It's a way to separate investment bank/HNW investor/corporate deposits away from Average Joe deposits. It's all about putting more safety gates/fences around parts of the banking system. Average Joe depositors are broke so they no longer hold all the power to create a "bank run" through withdrawals (because they have very little if any), that power is now in the hands of the other HNW depositors and investors. So they want to limit the potential public fallout and outcry when major money gets moved and a bank's liquidity dries up. "If you have this stablecoin in your wallet, you already have your money, no need to worry." Ok, sure you do.

2. They want to separate out Average Joe deposits to create the necessary liquidity to prevent main street banking disruptions.

3. Main street banking liquidity will move from a "long term liquidity with hard backing assets" model to a "liquidity on demand with no real collateral behind it" model for most run-of-the-mill, regional banks.

4. This will just create or increase more of a liquidity problem everywhere else, and allow them to further increase the fractional reserve model(s). Nothing will change, in fact the fragility of the global financial system will just continue to deteriorate.

5. Average Joe could still be left holding the bag and take a hair cut if the stablecoin has a crisis and goes belly up. FDIC will no longer be there to protect the Average Joe who is holding it. Because they still ultimately want Average Joe to foot the bill if things go bad (i.e., "Privatize gains, Socialize losses", remember?)

This is why you can't trust any of this shit. It's not being set up for our best interests, but theirs. Shit is shit, and you can smell it from a mile away.

I think that in retrospect, a lot about the WO has changed over the years because their hasn't been as much new about Bitcoin (the tech) to really discuss and debate atm.

In the early days, you had a number of topics that were fresh and still up for debate:

- Bitcoin as currency vs. digital gold (reserve asset)
- Bitcoin security (solid)
- Segwit (success btw)
- Miner 51% attack threat
- the role of altcoins (Now pretty much settled...there is none. They are all PnD shitcoins with no utility or value beyond what Bitcoin can provide)
- the block size debate (seriously, does anyone still care about this or still want to debate it?)
- the role and success of Lightning Network (Working? Yes. Successful? Not sure yet. I mean, I guess so..but I still don't use it)
- Taproot
- Smart contracts (aka solution looking for a problem)

and then you had topics like

- Butterfly Labs (ugh)
- Mark Karpeles and the implosion of Mt. Gox (double ugh)
- China Ban Bitcoin (again, and again, and again, and...)
- Bitcoin will spread to all major online retailers like Amazon, Apple, Walmart (never happened)
- Bitcoin will be accepted in every store or restaurant you walk into (never happened)
- Bitcoin ATMs will be everywhere, and extremely popular/used (nope)
- Overstock.com adopting and buying bitcoin
- Bitcoin forks (Are they a threat to Bitcoin? A: Pshhh, no)
- Ethereum "flippening" (never happened, never will happen)
- Bitcoin ETFs (this did eventually happen)
- ICOs (dead)
- NFTs (dead)
- DeFi (dead)
- Tether threat
- Facebook creating their own digital coin? (died/shut down in the crib)
- PlanB and S2F model
- Elon Musk buying bitcoin...and then selling it.
- M Saylor buying TF out of bitcoin (and still doing it)
- Is Craig S. Wright the real Satoshi? (Bwhahahaahaha! Oh man, lol)
- Why did Bitcoin Jesus become Bitcoin Judas?
- Wtf happened to Jihan Wu? ("Fk your mother if you want fk!")

...and then you had all the trolls that all came and went over the years (WAY too many to list)

A lot of this is in the past now.

Bitcoin works, and has been working since the beginning. It has survived everything thrown at it.

And is still the King.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

U.S. Civi labor force participation rate was

Jan 2020: 63.3%

Apr 2023: 62.6%

Great job Fed! Amazing job growth in 3 years! So many new jobs!  /s