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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 08, 2021, 05:22:19 PM
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It is what as known as protectionism. Problems like this are the biggest barrier to BTC. The SEC is working hand-in-hand with the Fed. The Fed is genuinely worried that, with their artificially suppressed interest rates, MEGA millions $$ would leave the big banks and rush to Coinbase Lend for a measly 4% return (which Coinbase will make back and then some by invested those dollars into Bitcoin as a deflationary reserve asset). It's a liquidity issue---the Fed fears any investment vehicle that would draw liquidity away from the big banks. The truth is, that the SEC knows that big banks want to offer similar lending/interest products like Coinbase Lend in the near future, but the banks are nowhere near ready to roll this out yet (very few even have crypto custodian plans drafted yet, much less rolled out). They want to keep the money "in house", a closed loop. So they are wanting to shutdown Coinbase Lend before they get any further along with it. A 4% return is still below the actual inflation rate, but big investors are desperately starved for yield anywhere they can find it in the world. This is the fucked up game they are playing. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 06, 2021, 03:35:33 PM
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I'd be scared to "retire" even at 65 if I only had $2m USD, but it's one of those things where you just have to take that risk. Or keep working.
The biggest mistake that some retirees make these days is liquidating their 401ks or re-configuring it to mostly cash and bonds. Huge mistake. Inflation would insure their wealth would be cut in half within 10-15 years. If they live 30 more years beyond retirement, then they will nearly be poor by their death. The risk has now completely flipped 180, it is far less risky to keep your retirement wealth in equities and other investments after retirement than to go to cash/bonds. Edit: I read about a couple that retired early 15 years ago on $800K, but they kept it all pretty much in investments and only liquidated what they needed. Now 15 years later, they have $1.2M left.  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: September 06, 2021, 02:27:05 PM
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Eventually the "McDonalds" will be a series of smart contracts running the restaurant with an algorithm as the "owner".
And there won't be stand-alone restaurants anymore, only ghost kitchens for delivery. McDonalds et al will only exist as a brand on a phone app. The future will be a combo of Idiocracy and Wall-E. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 23, 2021, 12:05:48 PM
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Me? For a long time (say post 2017, in 2017 I cashed out as well, from 2018 - 2020 I bought), I aimed for +/- 1% of my net in BTC (none in alts). As BTC rose, I would on occasion re-balance my portfolio by selling (or trading BTC for gold). Typically during 2020 (and especially 2021) the BULL MARKET ran away from me so fast that it was hard to balance it back down to 1%. But, that's OK, good, in a bull market. Right now I am roughly 1.5%.
DO keep in mind that even my HODLing 1% (subject to irregular re-balancing) in the past year and a half or so has yielded me well over 1% in my whole portfolio. I will have to do the numbers, but even just a HODLing at 1% has probably grown my portfolio perhaps 4% - 5%, not bad considering I have been trying to keep BTC at 1%...
Please don't tell me you're sticking with 1% allocation because you heard that on CNBC and in the MSM. There is a reason they are telling the public that, and it isn't for the publics' protection. Hint: the wealthy elites aren't just allocating 1%.  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 21, 2021, 11:40:03 PM
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Good read. So when prices go up, consumers are forced to buy cheaper products, and thus there has been no inflation? Devious! Or like when the price of new cars and trucks skyrocket due to supposed "supply chain constraints", people are forced to purchase used cars and trucks at exorbitantly sky-high prices... ...so there isn't really anything cheaper. Oh wait... |
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1156
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 21, 2021, 08:15:12 PM
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I am 100% certain that a LOT of professional traders who are newly into Bitcoin made an error because of this particular fake out. I mean... I suppose I can be wrong about where we are headed and this is a dead cat? But I doubt it. This is an over-classic spot on formation at the end of a parabolic run to all time highs. I guarantee that a LOT of money traded out of this. I remember seeing Microstrategy announcing new buys over and over during the 3-4 month correction. And I can remember pros commenting on them sending good money after bad, and pointing out the levels at which they would be under water. This is not a post saying "HA HA! Look at the dumb 'professionals!'". They are good at what they do. And notice I said "the ones new to bitcoin". Because the ones that UNDERSTAND bitcoin a bit more were... well, doing what Saylor did.  One more bit of thought... A lot of really smart professional money got out in the 60 to 45 range. So part of this rally will be them getting back in while they are still at a discount. It's sort of an implied short squeeze. And for some it is probably as REAL short squeeze. But others just have money on the sidelines like Raja... They are going to be buying in more as the price starts to continue to head up, because more of them will be hedging under their sale price that they were wrong. And Voila. They were. Feel free to dig this quote up and post it to embarrass me in 6 months: We are now entering the next phase of the bullsplosion. And I think it is highly likely to be the uber-face-melter.But it won't get quoted. Because it will be correct.  Cards face up. All in. Love you folks. (PS. I think the real tell will be the volume over the next month or so... If it stays low then all the above theories were wrong. If we see it start to build from here??? CCMF)I agree. I'm not sure to say if volume is really moving up though, more like leverage is coming back. And that's the problem with excessive leverage, it masks the underlying true volume. We also see hashrate edging up, which is a good and positive sign. Could this be a massive head fake bull trap that merely forms a double top? Yeah, maybe. But as you indicated, the Michael Saylors and Elon Musks of the world weren't exactly sweating the fall into the $30k's or below. And Saylor, Dorsey, and Wood were actually buying more during that time, a lot more. It was almost as if they knew something that we didn't, that there was a floor...hmmm...insider information must be great when you are wealthy. Lol.  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 20, 2021, 10:46:34 PM
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With Coinbase seemingly trying to take the BTC investor crown away from Microstrategy we have the fuel to get above $50K. Then we can watch media articles push us back above new highs. I think in the next 60 days we’ll see a greater than $60K Bitcoin and once that happens we’ll see just how big this bubble is going to inflate. I suspect it will be quick and by Halloween it will be clear that the market is headed toward the moon.
Bah whatever. What a freaking POX that Armstrong is on Bitcoin. He has been anti-BTC for at LEAST six years, and their announcement is they will put their money in "crypto". I actually believe that there are a few projects besides Bitcoin that do matter, so I am not even a maximalist. Well i believe there is ONE. And he won't list or hold that one for fear he won't keep getting to lick the boots of the state. He picks the WORST, and has never understood why bitcoin matters as far as I can tell. In a way it's win/win. Either it's SUPER heavy BTC allotment (proving the point) or it's super heavy shitcoins, and he loses his ass. Sadly the percentage of BTC in the mix is likely to hedge against total ass losing... I hope with all my heart that they put WAY too much into shitcoins that end up getting clobbered. Yet their "investment" will somehow legitimize the shitcoins. He can't take any crown away from Microstrategy anymore than someone who specializes in slot machine gambling could win a WSOP bracelet. Brian A. likely hides his true feelings about Bitcoin (and also shitcoins), because Coinbase has always been about buying/selling fees, and now their trading platform (fees for every trade). And the investing establishment (now shareholders) have clearly swayed him, i.e. "You must make more and more shitcoins available for trading on your platform!" Now they actually have to put $500M of shitcoins on their balance sheet to create liquidity for those scam markets, because without it there wouldn't be any liquidity at all. It's Penny Stocks 2.0 all over again. High volume buying/selling/trading fees are the only thing that matters now for Coinbase's bottom line. They pretend to care about vetting all those shitcoins on their platform, but they really don't. As long as a shitcoin has some sort of narrative/angle to make it seem somehow valuable, that's all they care about. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: August 19, 2021, 05:38:48 PM
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I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision. About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/You should have bought back at $30k. By the time it touches the 200-week again, the price could be back to or even well above $55k. |
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