OT:  |
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For all those concerned about recent price action just know that it won't last for that much longer. All markets are currently being driven by the actions of the CBs. Whether interest rates matter or not is not the point but the psychology certainly does. Anyway, lets see if the CBs continue to increase rates into an obvious deflationary (massively so) environment. https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1570491515624882176?cxt=HHwWgICw-c3twMsrAAAA CBs have only till the end of this year. After which their credibility will be blown again. Don't think they will continue with the interest rates increases for much longer. Maybe they will get to about 4 or 4.5% tops before pivoting after which we will see a massive rally in all markets. There will still be inflation but that will help markets also. One key driver to the economy (at least here in the UK) is the housing market. From what I've heard that is already getting stuck in its gears, regardless of recent news articles saying we have had 15% year on year house price increases. Those were July figures based on sales agreed back in Feb / March mostly, well before the majority were concerned with energy increases, inflation etc. Many of us here saw it coming, but the average Joe only heard about it much later. Yep that's pretty much it. Current high inflation will drop, but after that we will have increased structural inflation, brought on by the fiscal responses to the upcoming deflation and other stupid government ideological reactions. Housing is a big driver, and was a large part of the latest core inflation increase coming from the US. But every housing market in the west (not just the UK) is now falling at a pretty fast rate, when this caries over into the very lagging core inflation every CB and government will go into panic mode.
As you say markets will rocket. In this instance it is better to be early than late.Absolutely. I predict the stonk market will begin to front-run rally at least 4-6 months prior to any Fed pivot announcement. So if you see markets start to rally in December, you'll already know what's coming from the Fed in the spring. |
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What the fck is that? They're just shorting heavily and liquidating premature longs until the Fed hikes another 75 bps. Then markets will start to rise again... Also, I think the Fed is frustrated as fk that they aren't seeing the mass layoffs they expect to see. They'll keep hiking until they see it. But there is only so far they can hike rates before things start to globally melt down. |
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OT: The minute that the Fed announces its last major rate hike, is the very minute the stonk and bitcoin markets starts to majorly rise.
Change my mind.
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Million dollar homes have now lost their luxury status https://finance.yahoo.com/news/million-dollar-homes-aren-t-123000894.htmlI personally know a doctor that lives in a $1.3M home in a downtown suburb of Chicago. It is 2200 sq. ft., on a lot the size of a postage stamp, with a backyard barely big enough for a small concrete patio. He pays $24K a year in property taxes. |
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Watched the movie RRR last night on Netflix.
All I can say is, what in the hell did I just watch.
It was an all out Bromance spectacle, full of testosterone and over-the-top action and unintentional humor.
Loved it.
It's like India's version of Kung Fu Hustle.
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It's pretty obvious that whales are trading btc for eth in order to begin a large pump and dump run ahead of the Ethereum upgrade/merge news.  Noobs will never learn I guess. |
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Ahh...taking out some leveraged longs today, I see. Gunning for sub- $19k.
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2. Corporations will not be able to borrow at that rate and will go bankrupt. Thus mass layoffs will happen, which will cause even more of the govt tax base to fall due to mass unemployment. Should corporations that can't survive at 5% interest even exist? Those zombie companies also compete against healthy companies. No they shouldn't. Not in a sustainable world economy. But literally every major corporation out there, even the "healthy" ones with significant cash reserves like Amazon and Apple, count on borrowing massive amounts of cash every year at absurdly low interest rates. The whole world runs on cheap debt now. Make that debt expensive for an extended period of time, and the entire world collapses. I would also postulate that most zombie companies around the world have been propped up by the system solely to give people jobs (so those employees can buy a house, buy cars, buy stuff and ultimately pay taxes). That's it. Otherwise those people would be on the streets permanently. They would not be able to find similar jobs elsewhere, because the companies remaining could not absorb the extra staff and overhead. It's a complete financial ponzi system. |
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Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation? Isn't the low interest the cause of all this? It's been too low for too long, there's too much fiat money now, and the interest has to be raised a lot more before markets can make sense again. True, but... 1. At even 4-5% interest rate, the U.S. cannot afford even afford to pay the interest on the national debt. They have to borrow every year just to pay the interest. Especially in an environment where tax receipts are falling. 2. Corporations will not be able to borrow at that rate and will go bankrupt. Thus mass layoffs will happen, which will cause even more of the govt tax base to fall due to mass unemployment. Low interest rates were low for so long for a reason, an inconvenient truth that no one wants to acknowledge. At some point the Fed will have no choice but to pivot to rate cuts again in order to avoid a global financial meltdown. |
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OT: You can't make this shit up  |
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If whole world is under debt then who is the lender  Great question, think again.. I will give you some more minutes.. 3.. 2.. 1.. Okay you couldn't figure it out, maybe it's us the people who are lending them money for their shit in terms of Tax? BLACKROCK |
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C'mon Fed, I know that you can absolutely crush the world economies to dust.
Another big rate hike or two should do it.
I'm rooting for you! /s
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That wasn't what I was driving at but since you made me think about it, I would say, "No." and yet there are thousands of McDonalds worldwide pumping that shit out for hundreds of thousand repeat customers on a daily basis. You would think that eventually they would realize what they're being shown on the menu isn't exactly what they're being served. There must be other "tech" we aren't yet privy to in play. NB. The only thing I get at McDonalds and only once in a blue moon is their egg McMuffin and coffee. I can't believe that people still eat fast food burgers, which aren't even real food. I make 100% grass-fed beef burgers, charcoal grilled at home, with real vegetables, real 100% cheese, and organic buns with flavor that runs circles around Mc Donalds, Burger King, or even Five Guys crap. One day I totaled out the expenses, and it came out to around $3/ per person for one of my gourmet burgers, with patties twice the size as that of the fast food crap. People are lazy as fk these days. |
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The current failure to capture & subsequently hodl $25,000 doesn’t fill me with confidence that the bottom is in. I would advise you all to have dry powder loaded on exchanges for potential lower lows. I’ve seen this movie too many times before.
Honeybadger will wake up & start going on a tear but maybe not for a year or more.
It seems the majority thinks the worst is yet to come... (I hope they are wrong as usual..)Me too, I mean if as expected there is a global recession or even great depression confirmed, we can hope bitcoin acts as a life raft for people & a safe haven. Thing is when bad shit goes down, like when COVID was first confirmed as a global pandemic the arse fell out of bitcoin (not complaining, I bought a decent amount there, profiting on peoples misery). Im 50% convinced the bottom is in, in other words I have no clue. We are going to $150,000+ in the next bull cycle (after the halving). I’m just not convinced another black swan won’t send us tumbling to new lows before that. It's actually very simple. The bitcoin market price is not going anywhere until a) the Fed stops with the rate hikes, and reverses course. and b) China's economy stops imploding and finds a bottom. Until those two situations change, it's more sideways action. |
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