Well well...
Big ass green candle making a run at highs not seen since the spring... Let's see if we get rejected.
OR NOT!
 There we go... POP. So this is the big next action area, right? How hard is it to get up in this range?  |
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I am ALREADY so underwhelmed by the prospect of 100k. All the laser eyes and the media... it will be a big psychological thing. But I hope it does not become like a 6 month battle. I would love to see bitcoin cut through it like it does not give a crap. Which it doesn't. I mean... I know it's significant to our pattern recognizing brains when we add a digit. But I am already pining for the zero after THAT one. I 'spose I will never be happy!  |
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Well well...
Big ass green candle making a run at highs not seen since the spring... Let's see if we get rejected.
OR NOT!
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I believe half of the Bitcoin's value is from Tether printing those USDTs. Don't take me wrong but it's a fake pump going around.
I would love the crappy shit to get rid of Bitcoin so that it can again be decentralized.
I believe they've stated that a lot of their tether is "backed" by other cryptocurrencies they've bought with them. Also, they don't guarantee that you can redeem USDT for actual dollars. Lots of red flags and even if they're 100% scrupulous (which the former would argue against), it's a ticking time bomb. I have not spent a lot of time thinking about this. But it has seemed to me that in the end it will be a huge proof for bitcoin in general. They way they created a synthetic crypto "dollar" came with all the same issues fiat money has always had, but on steroids. Fractional reserve, printing willy nilly, corruption. And when it implodes people will howl, and point at Bitcoin. And Bitcoin will say, "What?" And slowly a few more people will realize what bitcoin actually is, and what it fixes. It will be, like everything is, a net positive for Bitcoin in the end. Might take a rough road to get there... but that's what I think. |
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While we are sitting here waiting for 100K I thought we could kill some time with a little play. What was your first car and what song, that you still play to energize yourself, did you play in it. I'll go first. My first car was a 1968 brown Ford Capri and I played "Ça Plane Pour Moi" very loud, and still do. It had Lucas electric system, and I can confirm the rumors, he did indeed invent darkness. I was 18, driving too fast on a dark country road when suddenly everything went dark, everything. I saw nothing. luckily the road was straight and I was young, so I slammed the brakes and managed to stop without going of the road. I opened the hood and started to hit random things with a hammer and all of a sudden the lights went back on. I never trusted that car after that incident and soon traded it for a 1962 Chevy Nova (that car too was a piece of garbage and was traded for a Volvo Amazon, that car was a pearl). Not the actual care, but one just like it.  Ça Plane Pour Moi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDHjeiys3a0You are the king of the divan! |
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- Halving impact is reducing
- Magnitude of waves will reduce*
- Frequency of waves will increase
- *Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)
This year we will see 90% of the bitcoin supply mined already. Between now and 99%, which is in the year 2035 there will be a few halvings, and I think the mother of all happens somewhere in the middle. Past that, there's not much left to make any significant effect. By the year 2048, we have 99.9% of supply. The next 100 years to the year 2140 (or as some predict maybe even earlier, but just a few years) is a 0.1% increase to 100% of all bitcoin supply. But we also know price does not immediately follow these milestones, it may take some time for these numbers to sink in before people, retail, and institutional investors and even countries to buy in. So I find myself constantly musing the paths forward... We could follow a rational, predictable (in hindsight) curve that just keeps grinding away, and when you zoom out just looks like a smooth ramp up. The fact that the higher we go (especially from a logarithmic basis) the more it takes to move us supports this. It has the fact that the patient will be rewarded, and there can be many dead bodies along the way of people "glad to get out before that last crash". As bitcoin gradually monetizes. Or we could reach some tipping point where the growth is explosive and dumbfounding. A point at which the early herd is pouring in and they are able to overcome the logarithmic bias because of the ridiculously small float in real terms that bitcoin has. This also leaves dead bodies along the way of people who were counting on the "cycle" to just keep repeating itself. Adoption curves favor the latter. And because price is the only metric that really matters in Bitcoin an argument can be made that the price will directly reflect adoption. Because the more people use it, the more things are priced in it, the more it gets stuck in the hands of holders and the smaller that float becomes. Then the ONLY way to loosen up some of the float is to put the price up to a level that the people willing to see... do loosen up. And it's that positive feedback loop Satoshi mentioned. I go back and forth... But I WANT that second road. Because i am not young. And that is how I have chosen to play my cards. |
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I am just saying "great minds think alike". I think he might be right... and have been saying it for over a year. Never claimed to be the originator of the idea, but i did come to the conclusion fairly independently. Never been a Dan Held acolyte, but I think he was early on with all the "supercycle" stuff. I think Willy's take is a little more nuanced. It does not completely throw out the 4 year cycle thing, but more sort of dampens it. I personally think the halvings will still have some impact, but I believe the early roller coaster days are a thing of the past to *some* extent. But there is even nuance there. I could say insterad of 80-90% pullbacks we could see 50-60, and then less etc. And instead of one big parabola and one big crash we could see gentler more frequent waves. As well as the possibility of a really crazy upward push thrown in... I think the quadrennial bitcoin cycle will become less and less of a "thing' as adoption increases. This makes a lot of sense because of both the lessened actual value of the next halvings (50->25 is a way bigger drop in nominal terms than 6.25->3.125) as well as the larger field of players will also create more liquidity and lead to less SHOCKS. My thesis in bullet points: - Halving impact is reducing
- Magnitude of waves will reduce*
- Frequency of waves will increase
- *Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)
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... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?
Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon. Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t
I just have my side to be on…..
Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)
I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC). Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold? But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ? So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do? I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision. About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/I think this is a very sensible approach. The risk you are taking is simple to see, and easy to hedge. You are discounting the black swan. That the 200DMA will be higher than your sell point when it touches would be one way to express it. The hedge is just to leave a portion in BTC. But i am talking about what I would do rather than what you want. |
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Willy talkin' like the cAP... |
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This is the catch-22 of bitcoin, and one of the more interesting topics of thought, in my opinion.
Some of the factors:
Some believe people will not want to SPEND a deflationary hard money, but rather will SAVE into it.
As long as purchases with crypto are taxable events it disincentivizes commerce.
Gresham's vs Their's laws... how does that play out?
My thoughts...
Even if Bitcoin was not "spent" much it would be useful. Currently in the west people are "saving" in the stock markets. You can't use stocks to buy things, and trades out are taxable events for most of us. And yet the stock market continues to flourish.
Same with gold. Gold is property. And people hedge with it.
But Bitcoin is a better hedge than either really. And the world is *juuuuust* figuring that out right now.
And here is the kicker. Bitcoin's properties make it the most natural electronic money ever. It is DESIGNED for commerce. So once people are in it they will start to move it around. I.E. SPEND it.
So... that's where it gets interesting. How will that unfold? Yes, I *do* think eventually people will spend their Bitcoin. I am just not sure about the path to that future.
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Simple question...
The lightning network is capable of enabling atomic exchange between different blockchains. But the ability is still mostly theoretical, as it has not been developed out much.
However BTC<->XMR cross chain atomic swaps is already built, and even beginning to work.
Why did that development come first?
Hint: The answer is even simpler than the question.
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Screw waiting for bitcoin, we're going... Up?
Would *lurve* to see it break over .00615ish  |
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ok chartbuddy enough lounging around. time to put some effort into heading uphill again. attaboy i know youll come through.
It's $47000 now. pffft ant mode Ah, you want $470000. Very much. That would do it for sure... |
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A nice advice for all those who want to invest in bitcoin that you won't get rich overnight as no one has ever become in most cases but you need to think about safeguarding your future like you take insurance policies and plans for your kids and old age.So it is better not to regret at that time making same false and lame excuses.Be part of it now. Interesting how the sheeple sit on the sidelines watching bitcoin do a 5X since pre-Covid, and do nothing, while also watching inflation reek havoc on the food/goods/services that they buy daily during the same timeframe and feel no way to escape it. How many people ever really benefit from the obvious multipliers we are fortunate enough to see this time? In the future many, many, many will say, I should have seen it all along it is so obvious now. But this has astonished me the entire time. And I know I am not the only one who has been saying to many of his friends and even acquaintances that Bitcoin is going to change the world, and it has a long way to go (including the obligatory risk assessment, even catastrophic risks). And the responses all fall into a predictable range: It's a bubble/tulips. It's the MySpace of crypto. It's too late. It will be made illegal. And the contrarian in me comforts myself because if it were so obvious to everyone I would not have been afforded the extraordinary chance I have had. But it is just as hard to convince someone that there is still, today, a chance to get in early. I have boiled it down to this: If Bitcoin continues to survive, and only takes an amount of value held in, for example, gold, we still have a 10x left That's the minimum. Why would you not hedge the possibility by at least downloading the Cash App, or Strike and just put 0.5% of your savings in it? It's still a binary bet!
That's my current pitch. I think it works about 3% of the time. The mind boggles. |
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You're mistaking your inability to search with some sort of conspiracy. It's been debunked and forgotten.
I mean, what the fuck are long term studies even good for anyway, amirite? If the historians write the truth about us in the future... black and white thinking (in SO MANY ways) will be the hallmark of all the problems we lived through in this age. A renascence awaits us in a world reacquainted with nuance. I hope to live to see it! |
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As far as we know you are quoting a dead man. He held a lot of bitcoin while he was alive, and probably lost more than many in this thread could imagine.
What an insight you shared there. I just checked the user's profile. They were last active in March. That means their demise happened recently. What a loss. The rumor is it was a car wreck. Truly sad. He made lots of enemies here because he was also a thief/scammer. He started a crypto "game" that I think used monero, but then had it's own google sheets based "currency", and he basically exit scammed, supposedly went to jail (not sure if related) and most likely lost most of it... I had several long private conversations with him. he was a tortured soul. At least some of the time. I never knew, however, that he was a violin appraiser. Lol.   This guy more or less brought me into crypto and i enjoyed his predictions and mathematical forecasts very much! I think his game was not intended as an exit scam, i think -as i was watching the development of his castle game- he was fucked by hackers as other exchanges had been fucked also and he was fucked by poloniex also. I am not sure if he had a car accident or if he was accidented, but yes he had some troubles with his wife and his children. RIP, i will still enjoy reading his posts and predictions saved here  A quick note to agree with you that Risto was not purely bad. But he did demolish his reputation and his own riches as well as the wealth of others. Along with, as you say, getting others to see the future with Bitcoin (and also Monero). I liked him and had several great conversations with him. It would be terrible if he was "accidented". When the kingdom game was going I would not touch it with a 10 meter pole. He loved the idea of being a king, surrounded by sycophants. He was that as well... I saw the end from a mile away... maybe I was just cynical, but also right. |
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As for concrete and pylons depends on code.
I can do this with a gravel pad and not be called permanent structure so no tax on it and no permit.
If I do concrete I need a permit.
This is different from a concrete pad. It can be either a concrete block or you can cast concrete cylinders. I have been lucky so far with poison ivy with no incidents though my wife has had it a few times. I almost wonder if there's such a thing as immunity. Yes. Some people do not have a reaction to it. |
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On the earlier discussion about money not making you happy. I recall a study done where it's not so much that money makes you happy but not having money makes you less happy.  I think the key is to reach the point where you're not worried about money anymore so you can focus on better things in life. But the less money you have, you certainly do need to worry about money. I've been at the lowest end of the scale to well beyond the highest and I would agree. I would caveat this with the fact that though I did not have money (I figured out the many ways to cook potatoes as it was all I had to eat for weeks, and later finding Bar-S hot dogs for $1 and a loaf of bread for $1 could get me through a week of meals) I knew that if things got too bad I could fall back on family. So my level of desperation never hit huge lows. My current goal in life is not about having super cool awesome stuff, lambos, etc. It's about ensuring that the rest of my life I am not in the position I was early in my life. My problem with government has always been that they are the biggest factor in stopping me from ensuring my future through the use of violence. Thx elwar…. I’m very interested in these kind of studies… Good when I have some discussions with some peeps I’m of the opinion Money doesn’t make happy… but it make thing way easier and that’s why it does make people happy Like not have the need of worrying to pay monthly bills, able of going on holidays etc Then comes the point of more money could be better, holidays can go easier more exciting, a bigger car, better house little more luxury things etc Do I need most of gadgets not really but when there is more money then mostly more things are being bought. I can say there isn’t really a lot making me happy these days from gadgets, I do like a nice house to call home and a nice car to drive with…. So money doesn’t necessarily makes one happy but the comfort it can give and taking away some stress points that’s something anyone becomes happy from… Being able of taking my Gf or brother or someone I like on a trip or at a high class restaurant and give them the experience they wouldn’t have … that makes me happy as well So I’m in favor of having more money as less money is a thing that could give join, an important thing maybe is to use it on important stuff as well and not only gadgets … Agree. This graph really lets us see what we instinctively know that Money can make you UNHAPPY when you are having to constantly focus on gaining it. But after you are "secure" then there is not so much change. Seeing that quantified as 75k per year seems like it is right from my own experience. There are two modes: Paycheck to Paycheck. Must be disconnected from money to be happy. Enough. Money will not be a stressor, but happiness must still be chosen and pursued. |
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