How extravagant.  This bounce was actually weaker than the last mtgox bounce.

10KBTC of bids are in front of the bottom  (vs 20KBTC)

It went from 340 to 440 [+30%] ( vs 400 to 610 [+52%] )

There was 64K volume on stamp (vs 120K)



There is a whopping 9.5M USD.

The trendline is an imaginary observation of the past based on guesstimations of a lagging slope and an arbitrary formula for an exponential growth of the userbase in which the exponent could easily be wrong causing a massive error.

I remember statements about "the cycles are getting faster now. This will only be a very brief consolidation for a couple months before ATH and not a full bear market" and of course "wall street is going to take it from here".

Probably this year? That means the price has to reverse out of this 1W downtrend, rally back to ATH, and then rally 600% on top of ATH, all within 9 months. It really doesn't look like that's going to happen at the rate things are doing and even when things are at their best it doesn't move that fast.

Normally in an investment if you said you expected 1500% growth in 2 years, or 1500% growth in any amount of time ever, that would be phenomenal and unbelievable. And here people think that's bearish... This is such a cukoo nut job place.

If it's not obvious which direction to trade, don't trade. These consolidations are here to give you a break.

Do not underestimate China.

Maybe they do it late. The 20th rolls around and a bank account closes "Sorry it took us so long. We were very busy, system issues, etc."

There's no law or announcement coming on the 15th. The banks were asked to close the accounts by the 15th as a deadline. Either they comply, or they don't.

There has always been the ability to transfer off exchange. Why do people think it suddenly happening orders of magnitude greater now than before? If bringing up the issue of trust, keep in mind that the amounts of cash involved earlier were less also.

The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.

So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.



Actually, I think the ichimoku cloud on TradingView is a much better visualiazation of resistance than a rigid line.

I'm not confident in this being the final bottom for the same reason as last time. The stoch RSI is wrong, again. The reversal is being triggered by some piece of information and a panic at the wrong point in the trend with no evidence of a true capitulation having occured. In a real reversal, everyone is bearish and someone is there sneakily buying up all the coins that the bears are dumping despite all odds, and the price slowly scoops it way upwards with the MACD crossing as the stoch RSI is still low. It usually features a sort of double bottom a couple days apart with both days having high volume.

So far every bottom has seemed firm, until it was double penetrated. First 530 was very firm, then it was 400. Even 850 was firm in November during a correction before the Chinese acted.

I think this is the plan:

What would this pattern be called, if it broke out: Head, shoulders, and hips?

Almost everyone who trades bitcoin is in the same boat. Nobody knows how to calculate the value of a bitcoin. I never see any equations where the total amount of sales of bitcoin business and such is passed through to yield a value. We're all just speculating on wild guesses. It's a very trending market with trends that go on very long and the charts themselves create movements. Also there is always someone doing some kind of insider trading and you can see it happening with TA. The best thing you can do is just ignore the news, trade the charts, and use risk management strategies.

It shouldn't go much past 2800 before consolidating for a few days.

Order books and charts are showing a powerful momentum with thin retraces, early indicator reversals, and lots of bids filling in.

I think there should be a consolidation of a couple days before break to 520 (and then either dump or trend reversal). At least that's how it worked last month with mtgox. Only problem I see is there is significantly less volume on stamp this time. Stamp did 64K of volume yesterday and with the mtgox bounce, it did 120K of volume. The candles now, however, actually look even more bullish than then, but the volume does not. I don't know what to make of it.

I would make sense in this situation if the trend is being driven by Chinese re-entrants and so the volume there is more significant. However, in that case we have to trust that this the end of the China situation and that the Chinese volume wont get killed of by continued bank shutdowns. So far, ignoring the volume on stamp has always been a mistake.

It does not matter if the statement is bullish or bearish - I cannot point out objective statements about TA and charts without having my own position questioned. Why is that?

that is one bullish set of daily candles. Where are the train pics?

My thought process? I'm simply discussing the topic at hand, in the thread. Unlike you, who wants to divert my attention away from the topic as some kind of defense against actually have to discuss it.

If they say "to the moon", it implies that they are very confident in an upwards price movement and that their customers should buy. Even if you think it's a joke, other people might not. In the real market, it would illegal to even make such a vague reference and you would be potentially liable if a customer were to trade based on your statements and lose. It's also simply not the way that a business should communicate.

What is the with the caps, profanity, and emotions? I did not use any of that.