Rats were the carriers in the Black Death.
This has been taught for decades but interestingly a recent study show that may be wrong. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/20/1412887112.abstractProfessor Nils Christian Stenseth and scientists from the University of Oslo say they've compared tree-ring records from Europe and Asia with more than 7,000 outbreaks of the plague. They conclude that weather during much of that period would be too wet for rats to flourish and carry infected fleas across continents.
But he says wet springs succeeded by warm summers would be a honeymoon atmosphere for another species of vermin.
"Such conditions are good for gerbils," Stenseth told the BBC. "It means a high gerbil population across huge areas, and that is good for the plague.
"If we're right," he added, "we'll have to rewrite history." In the US the reservoir of Yersinia pestis (the bacteria that caused the black plague) is not rats but prairie dogs. http://guardianlv.com/2014/07/pneumonic-plague-in-colorado-prairie-dogs-fleas/ No definitive answer yet one way or another but it is at least possible that rats have gotten a bad rap over the last several hundred years. http://www.popsci.com/warmer-weather-asia-meant-black-death-europe-15-years-laterresearchers found that the plague outbreaks were preceded by warmer temperatures in Asia, while there was no correlation between temperature patterns in Europe. Of course travel between Europe and Asia wasn’t nearly as quick as it is today. The temperature spikes in Asia happened 15 years before an outbreak occurred in Europe, a lag that the researchers attribute to the length of the Silk Road trade routes.
They think the pattern went something like this: Warm weather in Asia caused more fleas and small rodents like gerbils to multiply. Then when cooler weather arrived, the rodent populations tumbled, and the bounty of fleas moved on to new hosts, like camels traveling the famous trade route. After a long journey, the flea population encountered rats, another excellent rodent host, in the harbor towns and stowed away on ships bound for Europe. If this turns out to be true it would be one instance where a cyclical model (anything that matched up to warms period in Asia) would accurately predict plague outbreaks. |
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Armstrong is the former manager of $3 trillion in Japanese funds. Come on now. Let's stop assuming he is some fly-by-night dimwit. Seriously!
Please consider to retract your false accusation. IMO your accusation makes you look like a dimwit, not Armstrong. Sorry to ad hominem, but seriously this makes you look bad. You are claiming a person as widely respected as Armstrong is so stupid to claim a joke as being real.
Hero worship is dangerous. It clouds objectivity and sets people up for disappointment. No one including Armstrong is immune from simple human error. I have highlighted the errors I have seen in Armstrong's writings and you have countered. I am comfortable with my comments and believe they can stand on their merits. Obviously that was an error, and I have observed that Armstrong has made other errors in the past of misconstruing facts such as the shrapnel he claimed was possibly machine gun fire in the downed airplane over Ukraine. That leasing claim at the Capitol seemed bizarre to me and I was in rush. Two possible causes of this and the second also applies to myself, is becoming too enamored with one's own truth and being too overworked to maintain perfect research on every one of dozens of things one is multitasking on each day. Note Armstrong has removed the link to the New Yorker article from his blog post. Yet he didn't retract the blog post. I think I can explain Armstrong's motivation, given I have traded emails with him and argued with him earlier this year. He believes the only hope is to wake up the people to put a stop to the corruption before it can drag us into another Dark Age. Thus he probably views the importance of getting shocking information out there to outweigh any pedantic errors. In other words, he doesn't want to give any reason for readers to doubt the seriousness of the situation we face. This is one of his personality flaws and one of the reasons I don't blindly follow him. Also I suspect that Armstrong views humor as data, and may have verified historically and statistically that it foreshadows the opinion of the public as to the actual truth behind the curtain. |
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The experience of pinky who says he has seen the market follow Armstrong's recent predictions is certainly a mark in Armstrong's favor. iamback's belief that Armstrong is legitimate is also favorable as iamback has read all of armstrongs publications and he has shown (based on his own publications) a talent for sorting through complexity and seeing the big picture. I will be the first to admit that the concerns I noted upthread are not sufficient to discredit Armstrong or ignore what he has to say. Below is the list of all the current Armstrong predictions that I am aware of. I will keep an open mind and observe his track record going forward. Armstrong Predictions (compiled by pinky with minor additions): Sovereign Debt Crisis- the sovereign debt crises... target for the actual collapse appeared to begin with the peak of the next wave 2015.75. It appears that the worst may be yet on the horizon between 2015.75 and 2020.05 (January). http://investmentwatchblog.com/martin-a-armstrong-it-appears-that-the-worst-may-be-yet-on-the-horizon-between-2015-75-and-2020-05-january/#2SRM6FkF58Wvwufd.99Pandemic Prediction-Whether or not (Ebola) is the next great plague or we are waiting for it, it is too difficult to say but we are in the red zone for the next one is due. If it is Ebola, it will subside at first and remain contained to its region with devastating results in Africa. But it will then start to spread internationally by 2016 and then reach the climax in just 3.14 years to 2019. So this may be early for the Ebola to be it. However, it seems to qualify with a 60%-90% mortality rate that is up there with the Black Death. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/31/ebola-virus-the-next-plague-due-2019/US Currency Predictions- The spread between German 10 year and US 10 Year Treasuries may prove to be the trade of the century later in the year (short Germany Long US). German rates .45% v 1.84%. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/18/understanding-the-bond-bubble/US Stock Market PredictionsWe are most likely going to see that Phase Transition in US equities unfold with a 2017 high. Just as the 1987 high took place on the half cycle leading into the peak of the ECM in 1989, this time we are likely to perhaps see the US share market peak on the half cycle after 2015.75. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/15/g20-leaders-plead-with-fed-not-to-raise-rates/More US Stock Market PredictionsA month-end closing above 17970 will warn that we can still see an early March high. That may then lead to a retest of support going into June. A low at that time will be very constructive for the longer term looking into 2017. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/17/the-dow-outlook/ |
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The media is becoming increasingly unreliable. Take this recent interview by Allen Greenspan. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iup05yEKmCIIn the interview Greenspan says a number of interesting things including: American productivity has gone nowhere in the last few years the annual rate of increase in entitlements of 9% per year...the people that receive it believe they are getting their money back and have a right to it. QE lowering the real rate of interest "has been responsible for the rise in P/E multiples... when rates normalize, that will reverse" We can't argue that we're extremely overvalued in the marketplace If we get leveraged types of toxic assets, we have a very serious problem, as 2008 and 1929 showed us So what how does the media report this very negative interview? See for yourself http://www.cnbc.com/id/102483369According to CNBC "Greenspan: Stocks not too hot, despite bubble talk" Bottom line: don't rely on the MSM for anything resembling factual reporting of economic issues. |
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For example, you have been trying to say he was wrong about a Greece exit from the EU. Rather Greece's problems began precisely to the day of Pi from the turn in his ECM model, and it looks like Greece will finally exit on 8.6 year point from that turn when the host (the EU) in my OP's Petri dish is dead.
We cannot completely pin him down on Greece because he has not given a specific date for his prediction. His exact words were. Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/He said this right after the new Greek government started making all its loud noises about refusing to negotiate (yeah right) and everyone was talking about a Greek exit. One could argue that maybe he really meant next year or in 8.6 years. The most we can say is that his prediction has not come to pass as of today. I have been watching his predictions about DOW and gold market bottoms/highs in the past year where he predicted major low in DOW in October a week before, and if I remember correctly he even reasured that the bottom is in on the day even before we formed the first hammer, next day another hammer, then the crazy rally begin to the new highs in the DOW. He also gave warning on recent gold rally to 1300 that this is probably high. You can check and verify this stuff.
As a trader watching this in live market I can assure you M. Armstrong is the real deal - you just can't make this stuff up and be right.
Things like this are why I do take him seriously especially in the area of financial markets (his area of expertise). If a crisis happens as he predicts in Semptember-October of 2015 (which I believe is very possible) I will attach even more weight to his predictions. |
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Why did you quote him out-of-context in order to obfuscate his prediction?
I did not quote him out of context but since we disagree on that I will post the entire section in question below.  | We are headed into a period of wild weather that will be marked by extreme swings in both directions. The deadliest tornado was the Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925 that killed the most and the most destruction was the St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado of May 27, 1896. The recent outbreak of tornadoes from a cyclical perspective is a bull market. We are building in intensity that many have tried to usurp calling it global warming claiming man has caused this. The data shows before automobiles there were cyclical weather patterns that we have not yet reached – but will insofar as intensity.
Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side. Markets function in the same identical manner. |
He wrote this in March of 2013 when we were experiencing a record cold spring http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013http://prairieecologist.com/2013/04/02/why-a-warming-climate-is-making-this-spring-so-cold-and-last-spring-so-warm/Not quite following you here. Atlantic tropical storm formation like Atlantic hurricanes typically peak at the end of summer but it continues into the fall.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/hurricanefacts/when-and-where-do-hurricanes-o/31028Fall runs from late September to late December which captures the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season. However, Armstrong did not specify Atlantic hurricane season. The fall is also hurricane season in the Pacific ocean. When looking at the 2013 overall we see a very calm year in the Atlantic and a more mixed picture in the pacific and Indian oceans but definitely not a record breaking year. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes, and the first since 1968 with no storms of at least Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.
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First system Formed June 5, 2013, Last System dissipated December 7, 3013
The 2013 Pacific hurricane season was a very active season, although most of the storms remained weak. It officially began on May 15, 2013 in the Eastern Pacific and started on June 1, 2013 in the Central Pacific. Both ended on November 30, 2013. 2013 also had set a historic low for the number of Tornadoes the fewest tornadoes ever 15% lower than the previous record.  My take is that Armstrong simply got this one wrong. You can try to say well maybe he meant fall of some future year or maybe he meant drought instead of "violent storm like hurricanes". But the simple fact of the matter is that Armstrong said his models indicated something and that prediction turned out to be wrong. In my opinion this is incontestable based on his own writing and the subsequent facts. However, as opinions may very I am happy to let the matter rest on its merits. The weather is very difficult to predict and getting a prediction wrong does not make him wrong about his market predictions (his area of expertise). However, it does indicate that Armstrong's models are not perfect and that it is important to critically evaluate his predictions on their merits rather than "have faith" and blindly follow them. |
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Armstrong was correct on that prediction :
(California drought pic)
I think you are grasping at straws here. Armstrong was clear in his prediction. Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side.
He wrote this in March of 2013 when we were experiencing a record cold spring http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013http://prairieecologist.com/2013/04/02/why-a-warming-climate-is-making-this-spring-so-cold-and-last-spring-so-warm/The predicted violent storm like hurricanes, however, failed to materialize. The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes, and the first since 1968 with no storms of at least Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Least extreme U.S. weather year ever?’ 2013 shatters the record for fewest U.S. tornadoes — 15% lower than previous record — 2013 also had the fewest U.S. forest fires since 1984 To argue that drought in one state somehow makes the above prediction for violent storm like hurricanes true is something of a stretch to say the least. Blind faith in the predictions of any prognosticators (event talented ones) is a recipe for trouble. No one can predict the future with 100% accuracy. Armstrong's area of expertise is the financial markets. It stands to reason that his predictions in this area are more likely to be accurate and his predictions in other areas weather, pandemics, Greece leaving the EU are more likely to be wrong. |
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Note Taleb was working closely with Benoit Mandelbrot, the father of fractals before the latter's death. Note also Armstrong's comments about the fractal nature (hidden order) of time and events. From one of your Armstrong links above specifically http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/31/understanding-cycles-the-two-extremes-why-we-must-crash-burn/This fall, we will see more chaos in weather. We are headed into a period of wild weather that will be marked by extreme swings....
Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side. Markets function in the same identical manner. So how did that prediction turn out? http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/27/2013-shatters-the-record-for-fewest-tornadoes-15-lower-than-previous-record/Least extreme U.S. weather year ever?’ 2013 shatters the record for fewest U.S. tornadoes — 15% lower than previous record — 2013 also had the fewest U.S. forest fires since 1984 The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes,and the first since 1968 with no storms of at least Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Bottom line is that some Armstrong predictions have been wrong. |
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Armstrong had clearly stated it would die down, then the pandemic would rise again in 2017. I am thinking it will be an H?N? influenza strain.
iamback we do not see eye to eye on Mr. Armstrong. As I argued earlier. Armstrong does not disclose his methods. It is easy to claim you have a superior computer model that tracks 32,000 variables. It is far harder to actually develop such a thing. Armstrong is also selling a product (investment advice) so there is a potential financial motive for convincing others he has something that does not necessarily exist.
When I try to find actual documented predictions from 1985 I can't find anything independent ie not published by Armstrong himself.
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Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. I just don't see it here.
To the above criticism I would add that I have personally seen Armstrong significantly edit his old writings when his initial writing made him look bad. Specifically he erroneous reported as fact that Citigroup was moving its headquarters from New York to the U.S. Capitol building. This is just jumping off the cliff. Not only did these people grease enough palms to repeal Dodd Frank, they are now leasing space right in the Capital Building and managed to increase the donation limitation from $32,400 to $324,000.
Looks like the clouds are starting to gather for 2015.75 in a very dramatic way. Maybe it is just time to leave. Oh ya. This is fulfilling the lyrics of the Eagle’s song Hotel California – where you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
He later significantly revised that post http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/14/are-you-really-ready-for-the-world-to-be-ruled-by-bankers/I do not know the extent to which Armstrong changes his prior writings to "improve" things. In regards to Armstrong's claims of predicting pandemic in 2018 I would restate my prior arguments that I believe accurate prediction of such an event is impossible. Most pandemics occur when a pathogen jumps a species barrier to a new host (humans) that are not adapted to it. Such a process should be random and follow a Poisson distribution. The expected time between pandemics should therefore follow an exponential distribution. I am skeptical of the validity of a cyclical model predicting a definitive pandemic date.
I agree that that economic collapse and overpopulation could lead to worsening squalor increased contact with infected animals and increased chance of a pathogen jumping the species barrier. If economic collapse and downturns occurred cyclically that could introduce a cyclic increase in jump probability and the Poisson distribution would not hold.
However, all that would mean is that there would be times of increased risk of a pandemic and times of lesser risk. A higher probability is no guarantee that such a pathogen will jump. The Jump itself would still be a random process. It seems ridiculous to me for anyone to claim there is definitively going to be a pandemic in 2018. The only way to know that with certainly would be if you were the one introducing the pandemic.
My genuine impression of Mr. Armstrong is that he is someone who has predicted, probably correctly, that 2015-2016 is the date when the central banks finally start to lose control and that he is planning to leverage that prediction into $$$ by selling terrified investors (very expensive) investment advice. However, I am keeping an eye on his predictions. 1) Economy turning down at the end of 2015 and 2) Pandemic in 2018 3) Any others? I think he is right about #1 and I do not believe #2 is possible to predict unless you are directly involved or communicating with individuals introducing a pandemic. If both predictions #1 and #2 happen on schedule I will revise my opinion accordingly. |
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Please stop replying to that lame attempt at an AnonyMint copy. It's obvious he's just paraphrasing him, with all his 2015.75, Armstrong this, confiscation that. I don't have specific advise Also, AnonyMint would never mistake "advise" for "advice". iamback = AnonyMint = TheFascistMind = UnunoctiumTesticles = contagion Having been following his posts for a while and communicating occasionally by PM both with AnonyMint and more recently with iamback I can say this with certainty. |
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underclass who do not understand the mechanism of their impoverishment
You are describing yourself here, I think. You are deliberately mis-using well-defined terms in a way that lines up with a key propaganda meme propagated by the very forces you seek to unmask. Do you not see the absurdity in this? ... The United States has no collective control over production and distribution. The government is completely captured and under the control of a very narrow group of private interests. Anyone can see that. Personal insults so soon huh? Since you seem so keenly interested I am actually in the reviled 1% based on 2014 income (but I am somewhat young and have not been making that kind of money long so my net worth is not high). I am close to the government money spigot and a direct beneficiary of our current system (a winner of the status quo if you will). I would be quite happy if our current system went on without a hiccup for another 30+ years. Unfortunately that seems unlikely. I am sorry that the definition of socialism so offends you. However, you may want to check the actual dictionary before you start accusing people of "mis-using well-defined terms" http://www.thefreedictionary.com/socialismIf you don't like the word socialist feel free to substitute all instances with the term collectivism. In this context I prefer it as it is more clear and free from the political baggage. The substitution makes no difference to the arguments presented. Collectivism: the political principle of centralized social and economic control, especially of all means of production. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/collectivismYour blanket assertion that the government has no control over production and distribution is false. Government spending is around 40% of GDP and that number will only climb with time.  http://taxfoundation.org/article/short-history-government-taxing-and-spending-united-statesYour claim that government is captured and controlled by special interests is of course correct. But you apparently do not see that the end result of the blue teams redistribution to the poor and the red teams redistribution to the connected is identical. Both teams undercut and gut the productive working class thereby accelerating the inevitable decline. |
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There is not a single element of the power structure in the United States that is not completely hostile to socialism.
But perhaps you are using a different definition for this term?
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Debt and taxes are not rising as a result of "socialists" pulling the levers of power.
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The United States is not run by socialists. That is utterly obvious. If it is not obvious to you, you are using a tainted definition of the word socialism.
allbits it is fairly clear from your response that you have not read the links in the first post of this thread. Focusing on whatever baggage the word socialism has been associated with is a distraction. When we talk about socialism here we are typically using some variation of the following definition. Socialism: a system of collective control especially over production and distribution in an economy. In a socialist economy the government controlls the means of production either directly via government spending (think military industrial complex) on indirectly via redistribution to favored groups (think welfare recipients, government health care, and bank bailouts). The system is failing because we have an unsustainable financial system that transfers tremendous wealth to a parasitic and non-productive elite. Socialism and taxes are rising because the system impoverishes an ever larger underclass who do not understanding the mechanism of their impoverishment and demand their own parasitic redistribution. Governments are insolvent because we have reached the point where the host (the productive middle class) can no longer support the appetite of these dual ever growing parasites. Debt is rising because governments are mortgaging the future to pospone the inevitable reckoning. |
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Learning programming can be lucrative. I would suggest learning web programming.
I ran across this when looking for programming classes for kids. It is for adults so its not what I needed but it may be a good option for adults looking to learn web programming. http://www.codingdojo.com/ |
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iamback raised an issue some two weeks or so ago that has stuck with me... Namely to improve (educate) oneself. I am considering learning Python, a computer programming language. Python appears to be relatively easy by programming standards and also appears to be friendly to math & statistics programs I am interested in (to learn more about our company's sales data). This (of course) will not be easy... But, I can take my time, and just learn what I need and/or want.
Most of the "guts" of Bitcoin and the blockchain are black boxes to me, I know next to nothing about how they work under the hood...*
OROBTC I think your are wise to focus on the importance of programming. I believe that in the very near future programming will rank alongside reading, writing, and arithmetic as essential and basic skills required by all if they wish to succeed. Programming is a language and with all languages the best results come to those who start early. I am in the same situation as you with no programming knowledge and unable to follow the technicals of Bitcoin or the blockchain. Depending on your free time and commitments it may or may not be the best use of your time to correct this deficiency in yourself. I have decided to instead to focus on making sure my children do not suffer from the same illiteracy. In my area there are several programming classes for children. https://www.codingwithkids.com/#!/ They start with scratch (a very simple programming interface) and move on to JavaScript, HTML, and CSS. As kids get more advanced there are local options for them to take python classes. http://techventurekids.org/codecamps/These opportunities are not available in all areas and are one of the major reasons I relocated my family to the pacific northwest. Re arming up, YES, I agree that as many Americans (inc. women) as possible should have firearms, be proficient in their use and have deep stocks of ammunition. Currently there is an attempt at an "Ammo Grab" here underway, namely a version of AR-15 ammo much used by recreational shooters (it's cheap ammo).
It is always smart to be self sufficient especially when it comes to the ability to defend yourself. However, I agree with iamback's comments (re-posted below). Armed individuals will not stop the overall deterioration. Depending your your situation the best choices are probably 1) Quietly hunker down, hide your assets, keep a low profile and ride out the storm (the storm may last a very long time) or 2) Arrange for an exit for yourself and/or your children You will not stop the State from spiraling into the abyss, because the majority is going to demand expropriation. You can't suddenly change the situation of the majority. The majority has no other option and all the (political or even violent) fighting you do can't give them another option.
The economic reality and trajectory was written into stone decades ago. It can't be altered. The economic reality is what it is.
My advice to everyone is pay off all your debt because (we are) in a deflationary collapse that is underway (see oil under $50 today!)
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Also radically reduce the risk to unjust IRS audits and assessments, because these will become more common.
Also radically reduce the risk to lawsuits, because these will become more common as westerners get desperate.
Then the next priority is to align your vocation with the Knowledge Age and so you have income even during global economic collapse and your skills are transportable to any location you might choose to move to as the chaos takes form.
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If history show us anything...
...its that the participants in statism (aka society run by government) all game the system for maximum short-term individual gain and there is no global (in the time domain, i.e. long-term) optimization feedback mechanism. This what the Petri dish analogy was about in my essay linked from the OP.
States compete and thus evolve. Ideologies compete and thus evolve. Statism attempts to create an artificial global feedback in the form of enforceable property rights, laws, and taxation. Thus statism is simply a form of collectivism on a grand scale and arises naturally from individuals seeking to protect themselves from the terror of unbounded anarchism (murder, theft, warlords, chaos, war). Statism does not change human nature and human nature dictates that the participants in any collective order will always maximize their individual short-term gains. Without a global feedback mechanism the inevitable result is the progressive deterioration and eventual collapse of the collective back into anarchism. |
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The citizenry (of Norway) I assume have become entitled, spoiled, overpriced. Humans don't readjust quickly from this state. They go kicking and screaming back to poverty, not willingly with foresight and planning. Socialism destroys humans.
I repeat my point from upthread that trajectory is more important.
Norway faces up to prospect of North Sea slowdown http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/21061f38-b3d3-11e4-a6c1-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ScTYzX6z
Norwegians work the third-fewest hours in the developed world and have the highest rates of sick leave. More than one in five children above the age of 16 drops out of school, double the average for the Nordic region, while school results are below average internationally despite high spending.
“We have been on autopilot for too long. We have some big problems,” said one Norwegian chief executive, who argued that oil has squeezed out other industries, making it difficult to reform the economy.
Ms Jensen (the Norewgian finance minister) believes Norway is lucky to face such a turning point in its economy at a time when its finances are strong. “Our fortune is that we can reform . . . without having a shock to the economy. We have low unemployment and growth — that is a perfect [position] to start reforming your economy from.”
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I'd like to take a moment from your learned "OMG, economic devastation" discussion to share some great news: For Bitcoin, it's already in progress. We broke $280! You may now return to prognosticatin' doom & disaster  Come over a month later we are 40 dollars plus below that. I wouldn't bet on a complete economic meltdown. But, hypothetically speaking, I could imagine Bitcoin prices, and gold for that matter, soaring in value when fiat collapses. (pdf link) From 1926-1929 Silver traded between 53 and 60 cents per ounce in New York. In 1929 (onset of the Great Depression) the price for silver began to decline and went down steadily through 1930 reaching an all time low of 25 cents per ounce in New York in Feburary, 1931. During 1931 and 1932 the price stabilized at a new low level between 25 and 32 cents per ounce before reaching a new all time low in December 1932 of 24 cents. It was not until 1933 (three years after the start of the great depression) that silver begain to rise in terms of depreciating American dollars. |
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Well you do have a lot of posts under a lot of different user names Great linked post I missed it when you first put it up. I am copying the most relevant parts of it below. Norway government debt is $737 billion and their oil savings fund is $857 billion net positive $120 Billion (at current market rates) and per capita positive of $23,500. Enough to fund a year and a half of current expenses with no incomming revenue not ten. Still they have some significant reserves. Enough to do much better than the rest of the Europe so it’s a relative safe haven. http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/136374/Norwegian_Oil_Firm_Noreco_to_RestructureNorwegian Oil Firm Noreco to Restructure by Reuters | Monday, December 15, 2014 OSLO, Dec 15 (Reuters) – Norwegian oil firm Noreco proposed a restructuring as low oil prices and persistent production problems at its key assets are threatening its ability to remain a going concern, it said on Monday. Noreco, which holds stakes in a handful of British, Norwegian and Danish fields, said it needs to fully convert its outstanding bond debt as it was burning through cash rapidly and cannot pay interest or service its debt. http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/136404/Norways_Statoil_Approves_610M_North_Sea_DevelopmentOSLO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Norwegian energy firm Statoil ... has delayed several new developments as low oil prices and high costs have reduced its profitability, eating into its cash. The North Sea oil dependent countries have a huge problem with the ability to finance HUGE per-capita external debt levels as their export oil revenues wane. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/edmundconway/6505670/North-Sea-oil-is-dragging-us-into-the-red.html for the past quarter of a century, Britain has been a petro-economy. In 1999, we were producing more oil than Iraq, Kuwait or Nigeria. The following year, we pumped out almost twice as much natural gas as Iran – a country with reserves that are the envy of the world.
There are two problems, however. The first is that the stuff is running out. Production of North Sea oil has halved in the past decade; Britain has gone from being comfortably self-sufficient in oil and gas to being a net importer.
http://gcaptain.com/norway-reviews-gdp-growth-estimates-oil-plunge-continues/A 41 percent drop in oil prices from a June high is proving to be the worst since the financial crisis erupted in 2008. The slump has put pressure on a nation [Norway] that relies on energy resources for about 22 percent of its [GDP] output.
In the “short term, the disturbances in the Norwegian economy will not be as large,” Solberg said. Norway funnels its oil riches into an $870 billion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest. The government follows a self-imposed cap of 4 percent of the fund when it plans [deficit] budget spending.
‘Dark Clouds’
Over the past decade, Norway’s reliance on oil has been its main strength. Booming prices helped keep unemployment below 3 percent even as other parts of Europe suffered double-digit jobless rates. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt (sorted by highest per-capita first) | Rank | Nation | External Debt | Per Capita | | 5. | United Kingdom | $9.6 trillion | $160,158 | | 7. | Norway | $737 billion | $131,220 |
Note that 22% of GDP for oil quoted above doesn't include the Norwegian government which is 44% of the GDP and gets most of its revenues from taxing oil! Thus greater than 50% of Norwary's GDP is dependent on oil and it is claimed to be fiscally strongest country in Europe! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_budget_of_NorwayTotal costs: $160 billion
Tax Income: $124 billion http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/04/oil-tax-norway-could-teach-australia-a-thing-or-two-about-managing-wealthIn Norway, companies drilling for North Sea oil pay a 78% tax rate on income... There was nothing that survived during the Great Depression from stocks, bonds, commodities, tangible assets, to currencies. This is what we are facing. The complete meltdown of the world economy thanks to the convergence of many factors. Just about anything that can go wrong is going wrong and the end game is not looking pretty. As we can see from this chart of the bond market, while Andrew Mellon first bragged when the stock market crashed “gentlemen buy bonds”, those who ran into the bond markets either were left with nothing as sovereign debt defaulted, or their US bonds were suddenly devalued by FDR and the gold redemption closes were reneged upon.  The Middle East has become addicted to high energy prices and thus they have increased their budget taking into consideration expectations of perpetual high energy prices. [meaning OPEC can't cut production because they need the revenues] During the Great Depression, stocks rallied into 1929 but commodities peaked in 1919. The tangible commodity sector declined into 1932 coinciding with the stock low. That 13 year decline was profound. It wiped out much of the commodity industry. We are dealing with a very serious crisis within the global economy that is by no means limited to Russia or oil. We are witnessing the unraveling of the world economy because we have pervasive corruption in government...[/td][/tr][/table] Crude oil has two numbers we must now pay close attention to for year-end $75 and $57. A closing BELOW $57 warns that we are in serious trouble with oil and we may not see the final low until 2016-2017. The real critical level of support lies at $32. We should see this type of decline send crude back to retest the 1980 high of about $40 similar top gold retesting the $875 high of 1980. Welcome to the land of DEFLATION as all the promises of socialism with government taking care of you from cradle to grave is over and done with. Consequently, additional proof that this is not limited to Russia is just open your eyes. There is a crisis in ALL EMERGING markets. As the dollar rises and commodities decline, this is part of the cycle that sets in motion the Sovereign Debt defaults. We are looking at a major decline within the world economy. This is part of Big Bang. We will produce a major and very serious report on this entire subject matter after the closing of 2014. |
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In some past post, I showed that they are very dependent on oil revenue and afair approximately within a year they would deplete their reserves without the oil revenue. Their oil revenue will decline significantly with the drop in the oil price, because many of their deep sea wells will be uneconomic.
From what I can tell the total current annual government spending of Norway is around 87 Billion USD. The Petroleum Fund of Norway. The fund is commonly referred to as The Oil Fund (Norwegian: Oljefondet). As of the valuation in June 2011, it was the largest pension fund in the world, although it is not actually a pension fund as it derives its financial backing from oil profits and not pension contributions. As of September 30, 2014 its total value is NOK 5.534 trillion ($857.1 billion),
Even if they completly stopped collecting taxes, all oil revenue instantly ceased, and they did not cut any spending they could last almost 10 years just on their savings. Below is a chart of total government spending for Norway. Its shows the amount each quarter (in millions of Krones) so you have to multiply it by 4 and convert the Krone to the USD which is 1 NOK = 0.132 USD currently.  Norway has a population of 5.1 million and government savings essentially equal to $160,000+ per person. USA has a population of 320 million and government debt of $56,000+ per person |
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