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1981  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: variance in block times --- std deviation on: April 28, 2015, 03:06:18 AM
- snip -
I think I understand your question as "how can they always target 10, since adding or removing a requirement for a zero moves the difficulty target exponentially".  I would also like to know the answer to this,
- snip -

We don't just add or remove a zero.

Adding or removing a zero was an example in a concept document about how a difficulty could be adjusted.  It does not describe how the difficulty adjustment was actually implemented once the software was written.

Instead, the difficulty target is simply a 256 bit number.  Any hash value that is less than the target is valid regardless of how many zeros there are.

Now in practice, a number that is less than the target will never have LESS leading zeros than the target has, but it might have the exact same number of zeros if the rest of the hash is less than the target difficulty.

I think that pretty much explains it.  Thanks Danny Hamilton!
1982  Other / Off-topic / Re: Am I the only girl on here? : ( on: April 28, 2015, 03:03:57 AM
Why dont you post a picture of you fabiola , holding on your hands (Bitcointalk.org) paper, to prove that you are a woman.

I`d like to see some bitcoin user woman that creates a thread with 68000 views.

I think part of the reason this thread has so many views is because of the ambiguity of fabiola!.

If she were to post a picture and prove she was female, everyone would probably move on to other controversies.  Smiley

There have to be other ways to prove one's femaleness, right?  What about a short essay on [insert your favorite gender-based stereotype here]?

Smiley
1983  Economy / Gambling / Re: SwCpoker.eu | No Banking, Only Bitcoin | Bitcoin Poker 2.0 LIVE NOW! on: April 28, 2015, 03:02:14 AM
** ALERT **

An arrest warrant was issued against Bryon Micon in Las Vegas Justice Court on Monday on one count of operating an unlicensed interactive gaming system. The charge carries a penalty of up to 10 years in prison and a $50,000 fine.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/las-vegas/nevada-ag-charges-online-poker-operator-who-used-bitcoin


Holy moly!  Stay safe, Micon!  I hope they don't do extradition or whatever from Antigua.
1984  Economy / Services / Re: Re: cracking private keys on: April 27, 2015, 08:40:59 PM
BHAHAHA. Your response only confirms how much of a good job I am doing here at busing scams, especially yours Wink

Sweet.  It's Quickseller's daily masterbation post.  Dude can't go a day without telling us what a good job he does.  Smiley
1985  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: variance in block times --- std deviation on: April 27, 2015, 08:35:38 PM
We can work out using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution#Quantiles that:
99% of blocks to be found in 46mins..  Which means 1 in 100 blocks will take longer than that.

This is assuming a stable hash-rate/difficulty.

I'm sure I'm missing something, but isn't that equation based on continuous parameters?  Whereas the number of leading zeros is always discreet.  So what happens when, say 2 leading zeros at a given hashrate would lead to 8 min block times but 3 leading zeros would lead to 16 minutes.  You can't require 2.5 zeros.  Sorry for my dumbness.
1986  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Just a thought about variance. on: April 27, 2015, 08:29:11 PM
So what would realistically happen if we were to in say 10 years have such bad variance? Like say, 24hrs with no block?

I think the chances of that happening are nanoscopically low.  Those long block times early in the blockchain are explained by the lack of hashing power on the network at the time, right?   There is so much hashing power on the network now that it's hard to imagine such a thing happening.  If it did happen, what would happen then is that I guess everyone would have a freakout or something.  Perhaps we'd see a huge selloff of bitcoin, but then again, those selloff tranasctions would also be waiting for confirmations until that next block Smiley
1987  Economy / Gambling / Re: BitcoinPoker.gg - High Stakes. High Rewards - Secure Bitcoin Poker on: April 27, 2015, 08:26:37 PM
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I was away most of the weekend this week.  Sad I couldn't join this tourney.  I'll definitely get into the next one.  Is it weekly on Sunday?

If you are talking about the 25mBTC Guaranteed. This tournament is daily. Information is in the OP.

I was talking about that.  I guess I was totally confused.  I was hanging around quite a bit last week during the week, I didn't notice that it was daily.  I can be pretty obtuse, though.  Anyway, thanks for the info, I'll jump into that 25 sometime in the next day or so.

Also, last week I had some fun success finding action in the micro stakes ring tables.  Looks like this site is really starting to take off!
1988  Economy / Gambling / Re: Primedice.com | Most Popular & Trusted Bitcoin Game | Huge Community | Free BTC on: April 27, 2015, 08:24:56 PM
Looks like I've missed a real festival of love from Scott.  I did a bit of rolling on PD last week but I didn't catch the party.  Oh well, next time it looks like.  Smiley
1989  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: variance in block times --- std deviation on: April 27, 2015, 08:18:08 PM
I have a question complementing this thread.
I have copied a chunk from the whitepaper:

Quote
The average work required is exponential in the number
of zero bits required and can be verified by executing a single hash.
For our timestamp network, we implement the proof-of-work by incrementing a nonce in the
block until a value is found that gives the block's hash the required zero bits

Every 2 weeks difficulty is adjusted to keep the 10 minutes avarage in place, but how can this be garanteed since adding or subtracting a nonce will change the difficulty and thus the average exponentialy.
Is there no risk the average will go from lets say 8 minutes to 16 minutes ?

I think I understand your question as "how can they always target 10, since adding or removing a requirement for a zero moves the difficulty target exponentially".  I would also like to know the answer to this, but to clarify the quote from the whitepaper, the nonce they're incrementing is just a value added to the block hash in order to make the block hash to the right number of leading zeros.  They keep incrementing the nonce until they find a block hash the satisfies the difficulty requirments.  But the "nonce" is not the same thing as the leading zeros themselves.  I await an answer to your actual question from someone smarter than me Smiley
1990  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Cross-compiling bitcoin windows binaries on linux on: April 27, 2015, 06:16:57 PM
I've been looking around, but I can't find any recent resources on how to cross-compile bitcoind and bitcoin-qt on Linux for the Windows platform.  Do you guys know of how that could be done?

Thanks.

I've done "cross-compiling" where I was on an amd64 (for example) and was compiling for arm7, ie, different architectures.  Is what you're asking about still called "cross-compling"?  It seems like you're going to need all the windows libraries (dlls?), etc.
1991  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Just a thought about variance. on: April 27, 2015, 06:14:44 PM
I started a very similar thread just a few days ago.  There are some really good infos and links in here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1036835.0
1992  Economy / Gambling / Re: BitcoinPoker.gg - High Stakes. High Rewards - Secure Bitcoin Poker on: April 27, 2015, 06:12:08 PM
Do not forget about our 25mBTC GTD Daily Tournament! It starts in 4 hours.

  • Buy-in: 1 chip + 0.1 chip fee
  • Rebuy: 1 chip
  • Guaranteed at least 25mBTC in prize pool
  • Tournament pays out Top 3 no matter how many players enter into the tournament
  • No-show timer is set to 15 minutes
  • Late registration is set to 30 minutes

You can click here to register.

25mBTC GTD Starts in 2 hours! Do not miss it.

We are also still running our hourly 3mBTC Freerolls. Come join!

I was away most of the weekend this week.  Sad I couldn't join this tourney.  I'll definitely get into the next one.  Is it weekly on Sunday?
1993  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Classic Bitcoin Polls - What is your all time favorite Bitcoin wallet? on: April 27, 2015, 06:10:03 PM
How can you leave bitcoind off this poll?  My fav wallets are bitcoind, bitcoin wallet for android, and then multibit.

You fixed it Wink  Casted my vote today. Smiley
1994  Other / Archival / Re: Quickseller, trust abuse, innacurate negative ratings, unprofesional escrow... on: April 27, 2015, 06:08:31 PM
Looks like he's gone the opposite way with me.  He's added more negative trust (trust spamming?).  His new one says that not only does he take a known scammer's word for it that I'm somehow a scammer, but because I called him out for his smear campaign, that also makes me untrustworthy.  He says "avoid interacting with me at all".  Hey, Quickseller, how is leaving three negative trust ratings on me (between you and your alt) equal to avoiding interaction?  Seems like immature trolling to me.

Holy shit! Just looked at your ratings, did that idiot give you negative trust for something you did two years ago? How objective of you Quickseller, it's not like you targeted because you hate him, not at all. He really deserved a negative trust rating 2 years after no one else had complained about what he did.

No wonder that you think accts seller is his alt, he necroposted on your scam accusation from 2013 2 years afterwards just to target you from what is seems. Way to abuse his position in default trust.

It's well known at this point.  He actually admitted that acctseller is his alt in another thread just after this abuse.  Your characterization of what he's doing to me couldn't be more accurate.  I'm sure that Badbear is going to be cleaning it up in a few days though, don't worry.  I've been around here for too long and creating 0 problems for anyone.  Dude isn't going to be allowed to go on trolling smear crusades while on default trust.  There are issues with default trust for sure, but this kind of behavior is typically cleaned up pretty fast---the only issue here is that badbear is the one who has quickseller on default trust and he's out of town until 1 May.
1995  Other / Archival / Re: Quickseller, trust abuse, innacurate negative ratings, unprofesional escrow... on: April 27, 2015, 05:59:03 PM
Fun fact: douche in question took away my neg trust.
He and Mr. Spittoon were so sure... Undecided


I know where he got it, though I'm yet to get either a reply or a neg rating from Salty.

[...]
[...] but you better follow your buddy's list and neg rep me - he got the cue from you Smiley If I had any doubts about the vindictiveness of that douche, they're gone.



Looks like he's gone the opposite way with me.  He's added more negative trust (trust spamming?).  His new one says that not only does he take a known scammer's word for it that I'm somehow a scammer, but because I called him out for his smear campaign, that also makes me untrustworthy.  He says "avoid interacting with me at all".  Hey, Quickseller, how is leaving three negative trust ratings on me (between you and your alt) equal to avoiding interaction?  Seems like immature trolling to me.
1996  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Rare address hall of fame on: April 27, 2015, 04:47:10 PM
Non vanity address, ending with four X's.  
1KaD9jMRutBBZjCbZH2Hcot6xVuhp5xXxX

Address with only 1 number after the leading 1.
1MfiREDAWiEsUJhQWqkd5XySrrAkjGwtoU


 The trailing X's are pretty cool Wink
  
Addresses with only 1 number or even 0 numbers aren't very rare.  There are 4 "illegal" characters - capital o, capital I and a miniscule L and the number 0 - which leaves 49 letters to chose from and 9 numbers.  
So if we forget about the leading 1 and assume a 35 character address (they can be smaller) the probability, if matching only letters, would be [49/58]34.  

You will probably see only the leading 1 as a number in about 0.3237 percent of all Bitcoin addresses.  I just checked through a list of previously generated addresses and found 20 out of 1600 that had no numbers other than the leading 1 but those results are skewed in favour of the letters since I am looking for words.

 Now if you have all miniscule or all capital letters and few numbers, that would be hall of fame worthy!


Or an address with all (or almost all) numbers would be also very cool.
1997  Other / Archival / Re: Quickseller, trust abuse, innacurate negative ratings, unprofesional escrow... on: April 27, 2015, 04:45:35 PM
Five quickseller posts in the first meta page. Tongue

Can't be helped, I haven't gone through all the threads, but the one where he gave a negative due to someone not agreeing to the final escrow did seem his arrogancy where he wasn't paid a dollar for his escrow fees. Maybe you should have given him the dollar to avoid the negative trust.

How much should I have paid him off?  He was after me and and spent a day or two digging until he ended up using the word of a known scammer as "evidence" that I was a scammer.  Maybe I should still pay some kind of ransom (he hasn't removed his negative---and it's doubtful he will until badbear comes back and talks to him about it), how much should I offer him?
1998  Other / Meta / Re: Trim or eliminate "default trust" on: April 27, 2015, 04:41:52 PM
Removal, no

Trim, yes
I think it is pretty clear that you just want the people who keep tagging all of your accounts and all of your HYIP's off of default trust so it will be easier for you to scam  Cheesy

The thing is that people throughout the community trust and respect me enough so that regardless of my status on default trust that they will listen when I say that I think you are running a particular scam so default trust or not, the "investments" that flow into your HYIP's will screech to a halt once I out them as being run by you  Cheesy  Grin

This is the kind of reply which is a kneejerk for you, it's what you say to anyone who disagrees with you or has been harmed by you.  You used to say it to me everytime I disagreed with you: "I think it's pretty clear you are an idiot who is just spamming his signature."  It's what you said to me when I accused you of attempting a smear campaign on me "I think it's pretty clear you are an idiot who deserves to be smeared".

This kind of reply is really not helpful here.  We are discussing ways to improve the trust system so that people down't have to cowtow to trust rangers like you and so that meta isn't constantly clogged up with Quickseller is giving me negative trust for no reason.  Please try to stay on topic here.

@salty, upthread you enthusiastically agreed with my suggestion to change the warning text to something less inflammatory and more descriptive.  I, however, don't have a very direct line of communication with Theymos.  Is this something that you can bring up with him? 
1999  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: variance in block times --- std deviation on: April 25, 2015, 01:38:58 PM
Block finding is just a poisson process; its variance of the intervals well defined-- 1/(lambda)^2; and thus the std dev is the same as the mean.  Observed empirical variance will be slightly different due to shot noise, changes in hashrate, etc... but close enough.

It's important to keep in mind that the variance is a necessary component; without variance the network would never converge again after a fork.

Thanks gmaxwell, this definintely answers my question concretely.  I can look up the poisson process in wikipedia or something to know more.

Std Deviation is 10 minutes, but it's asymmetric.  Obviously, the odds of the next block arriving before the current one is zero (although timestamps sometimes lie to the contrary), but the odds of a block taking 20 minutes, 30 minutes, etc, are positive. 

It's got what I think of as a "half-life."  I'm not entirely sure how long the half-life is but I think it's something around 7 minutes.  So I'd expect a distribution something like: it's ALWAYS (how long since the last one doesn't matter) got a 50% chance of arriving within the next 7 minutes, 25% chance of arriving between 7 and 14 minutes, 12.5% chance of arriving between 14 and 21 minutes, etc. 

But I'm not entirely sure how long the "half-life" period is.

Thanks cryddit, your answer makes it really clear why the tail on th right is so much longer than the one on the left (you hit a wall on the left where the previous block happened and there's no such wall on the right).

Thanks to others as well, I'm going to read some wikipedia articles now and try to get a little smarter.  Cheers!
2000  Other / Archival / Re: Quickseller, trust abuse, innacurate negative ratings, unprofesional escrow... on: April 25, 2015, 01:34:19 PM
Scambusting itself is becoming a form of trust farming (not just by Quickseller). Steamroll over a bunch of people, pretend you stopped a bunch of scammers, collect positive ratings, and abuse trusted position even more. This is one of the main reasons I have argued so heavily against "scambusting" in general. People who are wronged will bring it to light, we don't need internet precrime police running around everywhere interfering with what would otherwise be voluntary transactions in most cases.

So are you telling there must not be any scambusters in this forum?

There would definitely be much fewer posts on meta complaining about trust abuse so of course it would be positive. The only problem is there would be so much more threads on scam accusations  Roll Eyes

That's a hypothesis, I think it might be time to put it to the test.  If it really were the case, it wouldn't be that hard to reinstate the trust-rangers.
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