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201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 09:04:15 PM


I'm just not a fan of ETH. It feels like a World Of Warcraft currency. Example: If you want to fly from point A to point B, you have to pay 2 gold coins and 99 silver to the flight master to allow you to get from point A to point B. F^CK MAN!!  Cheesy  Cheesy .. At least on BTC/LTC/DGB/Doge... etc... all the ones that you can say: I'm not f%cking paying that fee. I chose what fee I want and I will sit here and wait 14 days till I get what I want or it gets denied and I get back my money!   Cheesy   Cheesy  (or you can just make a 2nd transaction after with a higher fee then the previous one and you get a spot in the next block.. but it is still something)

ETH feels more like a tyrannical system then the other ones where you can chose to pay or not what it is being asked of you.   Roll Eyes   Roll Eyes

NAhh I look at it different.

Eth increases and decreases at a higher percentage than BTC
Also the merge will act as a triple halving.
Fee problem will get solved in the future...
Transactions come through in minutes. With BTC it's like 30-60mins

Expected ROI is better than BTC.

I have quite some BTC but I'm giving ETH a shot with some on-the-side-cash
202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 08:42:22 PM
1w RSI is at 0... Grin
don't know which website is providing you that data however it's at 24.26 for me.

You are right, I was being hyperbolic. On the chart it's like way down on the bottom  Grin
203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 08:32:41 PM
1w RSI is at 0... Grin
204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 08:24:02 PM
Just bought some Eth at $890  Cool
Hope that's as low as it will go but more funds at the ready.

My Eth is stacking nicely. My btc position is already good  Cool
205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 07:12:41 PM
has anyone the liquidation prices and the amount of coins of the lenders under water?

You mean this?

https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData
206  Economy / Speculation / Re: HOW LOW WILL BITCOIN GO IN THIS CRYPTO WINTER?? (Cast your vote in the poll) on: June 18, 2022, 05:15:13 PM
Voted sub-1k because I want the weak hands gone ASAP.
207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 05:10:37 PM
Time-travel is still not possible, but you can buy bitcoin at old price. How about that?

Well it is possible.

Buy Bitcoin
Buy spaceship
Accelerate away from earth and fly at close to lightspeed for a while in a big loop
When you get back time has dilated and it's 2030 or later and Bitcoin is >1M and you haven't aged more than 1 year.
Cash your Bitcoin and live in wealth

(Requires some math too time the time dilation)
208  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC is coming back on: June 18, 2022, 05:04:48 PM
What is your opinion about BTC and low price
Is this the beginning of the end or just bad period

Welcome to your first bear market.
The more FUD and abuse you endure during this period, the more you invest in this titanic lookalike, the richer you get.
The bear market will show you that "doing nothing" isn't as easy as it seems.

So just bend over and cough and before you know it everything will be looking good again  Smiley
209  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH Sentiment Poll for June on: June 18, 2022, 04:58:47 PM
I believe the merge will be a huge success and once everyone adapts it will go up significantly.
Ethereum has way more utility than Bitcoin.
No new coins can be mined so there will only be 170M or so coins. That means that with the merge and the current Bitcoin price it would mean that approx $2400 is the current price. It's s as 2X for sure.
When Bitcoin climbs to $100k ethereum should be at least $12k or higher.
210  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC "broke" the support level of 20k USD on: June 18, 2022, 04:43:48 PM
Bitcoin broke expectations when it only peaked 3.5 times higher than the previous ATH, compared to the x20 growth between 2013 and 2017 tops. Now it broke the expectation that it won't go lower than the ATH of 2017. Just another proof that Bitcoin is hard to predict, there's no strong rules - pure speculation. Could go to $300 in the next 3 years, could go to $300,000. Both extremes are unlikely, but who knows.

I'm still going to HODL, because I see that there's enough interest in the world, this crash wasn't caused by a broad disappointment in Bitcoin or some deep flaws. The crash to $3,000 was also shocking and unexpected and it defied certain expectations about how low Bitcoin could go, and yet it fully recovered and made quite some gains. I'd still say that the long term prospects are rather bullish than bearish.

It's especially hard to predict because the markets are illiquid. I've watched a number of smart people talking about it on various podcasts.

Compare this to stocks where let's say you have a local shipping company and the company trades on the main exchange in the country. The company puts x amount for sale, like 50% and that's all available at the exchange either held by investors, ready to be sold, or already in the form of orders. With Bitcoin it's completely different as there are hundreds of exchanges that trade bitcoin all around the world and only a few of them are connected to these big tickers that make people try to catch up to what binance, bitfinex, coinbase and few others are doing.
Also over 70% of all coins are out of exchanges, so the price is based on trades of a fraction of the whole. If you want to participate you have to send money to an exchange and get it added to the balance of your account which can take hours or even days when it comes to small exchanges.

Then there's miners who constantly put pressure on the market selling coins, so when a traditional company can have the ratio of buyers to sellers at 50% to stay at the same point, bitcoin needs buyers to dominate just so it can stay at the same point.
When drops scare off investors, just like it happened when we dropped below the 2021 low, the pressure put by miners keeps dragging us down and it's going to continue until someone steps in and buys enough coins for the market to turn around.

It's all based on belief that the bear market is over and we are going to go up, that's all. There's nothing wrong with bitcoin, but nobody wants to touch it for some reason. People are waiting for a sign of strength, but there will be no such thing until they, themselves start showing strength.

No this is smart money pushing the price down to get weak positions to capitulate.
I bet you can find a few whale accounts growing fatter and fatter.
It's called the accumulation phase.
Once when the whales have taken out the weak hands the market will rise very strongly.
211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 04:27:58 PM
Hey, sorry guys, forgot to put it on my calendar. When's the $10k party?

This is the official signal that the bottom is in  Cool Grin
212  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC "broke" the support level of 20k USD on: June 18, 2022, 02:01:12 PM
Bitcoin can suddenly jump up to 30k and then you will hate yourself for trying to catch the ultimate bottom.

It’s good to be optimistic, but it’s also even better to be realistic. After all that is happening, I do not think that such a jump is possible, because if we look back, we can see that Bitcoin is having a hard time recovering from such blows. Of course, some super good news could reverse the trend, but in general there are many more who have decided to sell, even at a loss.

The old saying "Historia est magistra vitae" doesn't seem to apply to them.

December 7, 2017 btc went up $2500 in one day.
But yes it will be hard to go up.

I'm just saying you should be happy with your position at some point.
213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Today is the day on: June 18, 2022, 01:54:33 PM
If you look at logarithmic models then this was expected to happen after the next halving.
214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 01:50:31 PM
Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.

Filed under, “Teach people that Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.”  It is a very large file.

Its no secret that bitcoin has been tracking the stock market latelty and becoming more and more intertwined with political and macroeconomic factors,So it may actually be beneficial to treat it as a "stock" as this will allow for better models and price predictions.


On another note: how long do yall  think we can hold this 20k support,and is there any major support under it incase we break it ?

Miner support at 15-17k ranges

Question:

At what point would falling BTC price suppress hashrate sufficiently to make it difficult to reach the next difficulty adjustment?

This has been on my mind since I saw your above-quoted post.  An economic attack on Bitcoin is also a security attack, and a DoS if the price can be crashed fast enough that the network grinds to a halt.  If “TPTB” want to force a switch to POS, this is an interesting feature.

Explaining for newbies, not for phil:  In November 2017, hostile miners attempted the Bcash “flippening”.  Some Bcashers proclaimed they could make it infeasible for Bitcoin to reach the next adjustment.  But Bitcoin’s economics constrained them in the direction opposite of what now concerns me.  They could not afford only to mine Bcash.  They tried to pump the BCH market—it went wild, spiked and then crashed.  That could only work as a pump-and-dump on clueless Bcashers.  The hostile miners had to return to Bitcoin, if they wanted to pay their own bills.

(Some POW altcoins have a DAA that adjusts after every block.  In my casual observation, it seems a little bit unstable; and in theory, I guess it may be easier to game some ways.  Maybe.  I am not an expert on this question—far from it!  But if there is a sudden, drastic loss of hashrate, the remaining hashrate only needs to find ~1 more block for things to begin to return to normal.)

Some miners have low enough energy costs, they could probably keep going at ridiculously low BTC prices.  Flared natural gas, areas with high electricity production and low demand, etc.  But I guess not those in New Jersey.  How much of a % of global hashrate?

I know much of the theory here.  (Including the Poisson process and its exponential distribution of arrival times.  About 99% of Bitcoiners get this wrong, including many forum Legendaries.)  But I have no experience with mining; and mining is in many ways an experiential thing.  Especially the business side of mining.  I would appreciate your insights.

Even with free energy you need to acquire the mining rigs to do the work.
Centralizing all that much rigs might become infeasible.
215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Terra cofounder Do Kwon is the one who is pumping Bitcoin on: June 18, 2022, 12:44:24 PM
<...>
Anyway he's just as guilty as Bernie Madoff for projecting false profits and blowing up.

I also think that this is so, especially since according to the investigation conducted by Uppsala Security, the wallet that caused the collapse of UST belonged to Terraform Labs, so investors suffered losses due to the actions of Terra.

https://sentinel-protocol.medium.com/part-1-debunking-the-lunatic-conspiracy-what-you-didnt-know-about-the-activities-behind-the-57227b75d5a6
I did not know that the actions taken were by Tera itself, I always assumed that it was mainly by some other attacker that came in and found a way to make more profit as it got lower and lower, so I was assuming that there was a hacker that took care of this. Maybe I was wrong, and I understand that now, and the research is very precious since it is showing what we didn't know.

But at the same time, I have to say that there is a good case to be made about the fact that these were just some project owners that we invested our money to. Which means that, there are hundreds of these type of projects out there, even if Do Kwon is guilty, we are still doing it to other projects.

I hope that some of these people get harsh punishments just to set an example for others attempting to con others by not having enough collateral.
216  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC "broke" the support level of 20k USD on: June 18, 2022, 12:35:44 PM
People is holding base on the support they see then since the strong support has been broke up for sure many people will get afraid more and maybe we can see more selling pressure. I  can't say I will buy at this point right now since $19k just newly reached and this is truly bad because we might experience more downfall because for many people will make this a basis that we might see a long days of bear market season again.

While it's highly likely that we're going lower like I said, don't try timing bottoms — as you don't really need to catch the literal bottom to perform well in the long term in the first place. Just make that you continue to have enough money for bidding.

Its hard to catch the the cheap while the market still bleeding and its early to tell that we are generally buying the dip since as we see the market still on downside and many people still not done with their worries about worst situation that might happen. I'd rather want to trade short at the moment rather than biting the risk brought by current events and live with it.

Short term views on Bitcoin will take you out.
Bitcoin can suddenly jump up to 30k and then you will hate yourself for trying to catch the ultimate bottom.
Or even worse you get your short liquidated on market reversal.
217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 11:27:13 AM
from 20500 to 19000 seems like microstrategy liquidation , anybody here know any news about them , follow the sound crying CEO.

They will get liquidated at 3k but Saylor has said that at that point he can take out a 300M or so loan which would protect him all the way to 0 without getting liquidated.
218  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin Going To Fall Below The Previous 20k ATH possible? on: June 18, 2022, 09:32:57 AM
Prepare to be shocked!!! In a few days, we'll be doing a 10k!! History has been shattered in front of our eyes, and Bitcoin may never recover over $40k till the next halving... In two years, we'll see each other again.

I will finally own 1BTC when it drops to $8k  Smiley




Congrats!

Think about this:
There are 56.1M millionaires in the world
There are only 21M bitcoins
219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Bottom is Actually In on: June 18, 2022, 09:18:15 AM
I was wrong bottom not in  Cry

Buying down to oblivion...
220  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 18, 2022, 09:17:08 AM

I think Bitcoin is teaching them that there is nobody to bail you out if you go down.
In the normal banking world a liquidity of 10% is enough. In Bitcoin country you need 100% backing.

It's a good thing that these firms are getting washed out.

Exactly. Every bear market Bitcoin is fixing maturity problems.

Hacked exchanges
Battle for dominance
Coin security
FUD resistance
Country legislations
Adoption by the corporate world

And now it's mostly stablecoins and solvency
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