What is the range of estimates for BFL?
assuming
1. Order limited (i.e. fill all 10,000-20,000+ orders)
2. Wafter limited (i.e. run out of ASIC chips)
I have heard that the upper theoretical limit is something like 1,000 - 2,000 THash/sec ordered from BFL.
also - difficulty follows price. not the other way around. we may well see a decrease in bitcoin price
indeed it has stabilized heavily and ceased it's gradual increase on average / massively chaotic pricing. difficulty can skyrocket and price can do as it pleases.
BFL already seems to be mining with all the units they have except for the very few they decide to send off to keep up the illusion that they are actually delivering. I'd imagine they will start shipping larger amounts at some point (when they have another large amount finished that they can use for mining), but I doubt that BFL's units are going to affect difficulty seriously any time soon. As for price, the issue is that while we only had GPU and FGPA miners, minimal price (assuming at least some demand) was set by the power costs, and the massive efficiency of the ASICs makes mining profitable (not factoring in the purchase price, only power cost) even at really extreme values, say you bought Avalon chips and put them on a board, you'd still have some small profit if the price was some $15/btc and difficulty at 100m, so the ASICs really don't provide any reason for a price increase. Not to mention KnCMiner units, which are supposedly going to be even more power efficient, assuming they deliver some time this year. Ultimately, price is dictated by supply/demand, and for the time being the supply will not increase; demand is dictated by whether or not Gox is having issues and the latest related announcement the US makes. 7 posts and you are already an expert on BFL with inside knowledge of their mining operation, please tell us more, I haven't had a good laugh for a while. |
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well I'v been watching worldcoin all day, the buy order books are nearly empty. That being said I like worldcoin and hope it survives this crash
What crash? WDC hasn't been on the exchanges long enough to have a crash, it's still finding it's first stable level. Secondly how can it not survive, the exchange rate to BTC doesn't determine the success or failure of a coin, only it's relative price. |
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Company Name: CRYONIKS, INC.
Status: Active
Filing Date: 04/16/2013
Entity Type: Domestic Profit Corporation
File Number: 05133X
Filing State: Michigan (MI)
Company Age: 1 Month
Registered Agent:
Ralph R Safford
40900 Woodward Ave Ste 275
Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304
Only a month old. I wonder who did the R&D then? |
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WDC is taking a nose dive right now and is worth less then DGC
WDC should be worth less than DGC as there are way more produced. However both coins are fetching a crap price on Cryptsy atm, this seems to be the fate of all the new coins this month. |
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The reality is these coins are backed by:
1. The length of the blockchain
2. The difficulty
3. The amount of compute power necessary to maintain the network
Bitcoin is the most valuable because it has (1) The highest hash rate, (2) the longest block chain, and (3) by far the strongest network
LTC is a runner up
Most of the alternate coins are a pale shadow of BTC/LTC but over months and years a few winners may emerge. We're undergoing an experiment here to sort out who those winners may be.
I agree with most of that, except the compute power to maintain BTC network has shifted from GPU to more energy efficient FPGA/ASIC devices, and the other coins are still on GPU. |
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IMHO The reason price of DGC (and any other new altcoin) falls as soon as it hits an exchange is:
a) Lot of alt-coins at the moment
b) Only miners are aware of the 2 day old coin (who are sellers and not buyers)
c) Those with low latency and high hash power need to dump the coin ASAP before moving on to another. That's because history of all recently launched coins (FTC, CNC, YAC) points to same thing. Price goes down for the first few days and then stagnates at low prices.
Trouble is the market locks in at the low price, and it's damn near impossible to break away from it unless some media announcement gets the ear of the traders eg. rumour that LTC is going to Gox. That's why it annoys me when the miners don't take care with their initial selling price, you have a couple of minute window at setting the initial price, and they blow it. |
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Really need to get the source code on github updated I just tried to compile on a Mac and it gives this: make: *** No rule to make target `src/qt/res/icons/bitcoin.icns', needed by `tulips-Qt.app/Contents/Resources/bitcoin.icns'. Stop.
Meaning bits are missing, never had a problem compiling other coin clients. |
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Grats, let us know when it actually arrives, and update http://bfl.ptz.ro/ if it's not too much of a hassle. I will. my jally arrived today. well packed, in a regular white box. with a butterfly labs coffee mug. 5.3 GH/s average in the last 20 mins with cgminer 3.1.1. erk, how do I update that page? I can only add orders? Dunno, never tried to. Obviously someone has done it because a couple of them are green/delivered already. |
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Even though this early, low selling hurts the coin, I don't think it will hurt it too much. I think the coin is healthy. It's clear that their is faith and trust in the coin. I attribute this to the honest attempts of the dev to be fair, transparent and active. The launch was not perfect, but it was possibly the best one I have seen. The coin does have merit. Those just wanting to make some quick, secure money have the right to sell low and early. I expected it to happen. I certainly wouldn't sell so low. DGC is worth more than that to me. I don't want to horde, but I am not going to sell low.
I have faith in DGC, I can't see anything wrong with it. It's fast and not many in circulation. I have a small sell order on Cryptsy, but at what I think is the appropriate price .00838BTC which is one third of the current LTC/BTC price. I am patient, I see no reason to sell if it's below what I think is correct. I have lots of other junk coins with less potential to sell. |
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Man, I never expected DGC to drop so fast. And right now, the lower block reward, and fair start, are actually causing it to devalue further. I hope things change, when it hits an actual exchange.
The block reward makes little difference as long as the blocks are still coming out at the designed rate. It is a miners problem, not a traders problem. I too hope that DGC makes it onto BTC-e. |
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They are either idiots that don't know how to trade on an exchange, or stooges that are there to deliberately keep the price down. Either way they have spoilt a good coin which should be selling for 0.003 BTC not 0.00056 BTC I have stopped mining DGC because it is selling too low. Coinchoose is misleading people into mining coins that are hard to sell or sell for too little.
You seem to think that the market is wrong. The market is never wrong. If you fail to make money off rallies and pullbacks then you're wrong, not the market. Everyone makes their bets, when things go in the other direction we made a mistake, not the other way around. I don't think the market is wrong, they are your words. I think the sellers are idiots, they don't understand the difference between coins. I believe DGC should eventually be worth one third of LTC plus or minus good will. People who believe that the market is always right, are usual the ones that fall for market manipulation tricks. Fortunately there are many people left that still do fundamental analysis and can spot a lot of the manipulation. |
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If it should it will.
Relax I dumped my WDC early, cause I knew there were millions of them and that the coin was just too fast to be secure . (I think they have an unwanted fork on their hands now).
I am not selling this one .
People werent selling that much even here. Price will rise. Steadily and naturaly. (not like WDC initial pumps)
I haven't sold any WDC yet because of people like you dumping below it's price. DGC is almost identical to WDC so there are millions of DGC out there too for you to dump. Please go mine BTC where you can do little harm. Getting the price wrong on launch can set it back weeks even months. You are wrong, just about 300k of DGC have been mined. I am sorry but I did not believe in WDC. Just my view. DGC is just a WDC clone that's why the prices are tied to each other why would anyone buy pretty much a copy cat for .003 when they can get WDC for .0005 That's partially true, but the hourly creation rate of DGC is much lower than WDC, enough to give DGC greater value assuming all coins created are in circulation which they won't be. Unfortunately sites like Coinchoose don't factor in the creation rate and number in circulation. |
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Aye, I was referring more to the market history flsh miners have left in their wake the past few weeks, rather than the actual technical repercussions. A point to which you are correct erk. Having more than just a "profit" based interest in the coin tends to make one look at more than just what happened out the gate. With block times dropping I think the fork is off to a good start. Again, my opinion was just that. And based more on my view of the "flash miner" mentality than anything else  I am still mining FTC, I had a bit of a lull and mined WDC and DGC, but my interest came back when firstly those two alts got listed at way below what I calculated their value should be on the exchange, and secondly Coinotron started a PPS pool for FTC as I was having problems with the poor block discovery on the existing FTC pools, including p2pool. PPS gets around that, although you pay 5% for the luxury, it suits me. One of the things going for it is FTC is listed on BTC-e which is important for alt-coins, the other exchanges are full of miners dumping for next to nothing, and more importantly really low volumes. |
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Market is getting diluted. Every pump and dump since Feathercoin has finished off quicker than the last. Development continuing on past the selloff phase is what will determne is a coin has potential staying power.
How many crypto coins have disappeared from exchanges?
This is why I support DGC. The lack of premine & the low block reward for early adopters should help to negate this problem.
Those things are kind of trivial, because the pre-mine issue only pisses off miners, traders don't care where the coin comes from on the exchange as they have no way to know, they are only interested in price and volume. |
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[ You're talking purely from a technical stand point. The difficulty can play a different role on the market. This kind of difficulty change has done well for Litecoin and Bitcoin and I imagine it will do well for us to. We never expected to get back to a 2.5 minute block target straight away. Anyway we are 92% profitable for miners. A few more percent up and flash miners will return, if it goes down we can mine Feathercoin and keep them for ourselves 92% is good for mining, my issue was with the long transaction confirmations. The time is coming down, the site now says 15min per block instead of 20min it did an hour ago. |
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Basic math doesn't dictate the value. And where is gldcoins on your chart?
It would be way lower than everything on there because so many millions were mined in a tiny tiny period of time. It's lower because people are stupid and assign too much good will to BTC. LTC has been around for ages, is trading at a fraction of it's relative worth, which kind of blows your "many millions were mined in a tiny tiny period of time" theory. Remember DGC started off with low coins per block too, and for the first couple of hours most people were getting nothing but orphans. |
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I was actually afraid FTC profitability would spike on coin choose, thus bringing in the flash miners. Not something I wanted to deal with straight away. I am actually very pleased with where things are at. The flash miners are exactly what FTC needs to get the block time back in order. FTC is useless atm. it takes 4 hours for 6 confirmations of a transaction, and over 40 hours to confirm a mined coin before you can trade it. FTC is supposed to transact at the same speed as LTC. If the block 33000 difficulty change formula can't handle the flash crowd, then it's time to go back to the drawing board. |
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It has been settled and what's it got to do with the OP? |
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CBFL comes to mind.
Christian Basketball Fellowship League? Capital Bridging Finance Ltd? Computer Based Functional Literacy? Crystal Ball Fantasy League? How about trying to help the OP instead of jerking off in the thread? |
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finally.  But still i think price will be the same, until miners dump masses of FTC  FTC is still dead because of the restriction on the difficulty re-target. Current Block 33007
Current Difficulty 133.06387906
Expected Time per Block 0 day(s), 0 hour(s), 20 min, 21 sec
Time to Retarget 3 day(s), 15 hour(s), 11 min, 10 sec 20min per block is hardly a useful coin compared to it's 2.5min design. The pool I am on http://feathercoin.is-a-geek.com hasn't found a block in 9 Hours 29 Minutes which is kind of pathetic. The block explorer at http://cryptocoinexplorer.com:5750 seems to have choked on the re-target It is a slow recovery remember. What we did not want to do was end up top of the CoinChoose straight away. Remember that the next difficulty adjust is at 33264 which is only 252 blocks away now. True, the Coinchoose tables are wrong anyway, as they work off the latest spot price not the weighted average, so they are easy to manipulate with small timed sales. |
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