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2441  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Explaining Bitcoin to a non-believer on: June 27, 2013, 06:00:56 AM
Bitcoin is an experiment in irreversible digital value transfer and storage.  It is not ready for the world.  That said, it is usable and there is a lot of potential upside if it is able to sustain itself until it is ready.

Right, but saying that to them just gets a reply of "exactly" its a scam and you'll loose your money, etc. Im just trying to show how it makes sense and can eventually be a valid, widy used currency, not "monopoly money"

Show them the white paper.  The only other thing they need to know is that the supply is capped at 21 million.  If they still don't get it, we aren't ready for them yet.

http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
2442  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Explaining Bitcoin to a non-believer on: June 27, 2013, 05:49:12 AM
Bitcoin is an experiment in irreversible digital value transfer and storage.  It is not ready for the world.  That said, it is usable and there is a lot of potential upside if it is able to sustain itself until it is ready.
2443  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device on: June 27, 2013, 05:40:28 AM
I did not buy them.  I am operating them for a fee for a friend.  Based on the timing, I would say 2 which is unfortunate for him.  I wouldn't have bought at that price and I told him that.  However, this shouldn't be a competition to prove I made bad decisions.  This should be a discussion of facts.

At 2BTC a piece I agree.

Also, I am the pool fee, so even on my own hardware I don't have to worry about that.

Dude, I've been mining since December 2010.  I know how to calculate expenses.  If you want to discuss potential difficulty, sure, that is guesswork.  But I know expenses.
2444  Economy / Economics / Re: The end is near on: June 27, 2013, 05:38:00 AM
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/event/220752
2445  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 27, 2013, 05:09:27 AM

I'm bradley manning

I'm Madly Branning.
2446  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device on: June 27, 2013, 03:42:22 AM
...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?
depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue.  So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months?  That's a pretty bold prediction

also did you pay 1 or 2 btc for them. i suspect 2.x

I did not buy them.  I am operating them for a fee for a friend.  Based on the timing, I would say 2 which is unfortunate for him.  I wouldn't have bought at that price and I told him that.  However, this shouldn't be a competition to prove I made bad decisions.  This should be a discussion of facts.
2447  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is bitcoin price not going up? on: June 27, 2013, 03:40:46 AM
*Tinfoil hat on*

It's that guy who wanted to peg Bitcoin to $100.

Max Keiser?
2448  Economy / Economics / Re: The end is near on: June 27, 2013, 12:54:53 AM
For that matter, one solution is to build caissons on the ocean floor and use power during the day to pump water out and air in to these giant caissons. When you later need that power back out, you start letting water in which pumps air out at very high pressure, driving a generator. Voila, constant power as needed.

Another solution would be to build huge culverts to funnel the Pacific Ocean from San Diego to the Salt Flats, which happens to be about 200' below sea level and was an inland sea itself that finally dried up a few thousand years ago.  A few water turbines near the Salt Flats, and with the evaporation rate of the area, easily 100 Megawatts or more for as long as we like.  More, if we decide that an inland sea would be a good thing to have there.  It would alter the immediate environment, increasing humidity, cloud cover, and rainfall for several hundred miles around.

Not that the NIMBY crowd would let something like that happen either.
Yeah, that's the main issue there. You can also do that with large bays that have a narrow inlet.

You're talking about tidal power generation, I'm not here.  Still, tidal generation is an excellent example of what I'm talking about.  The few naturally occurring ideal places to put a tidal generator are all owned by people who don't want you to touch their ocean view.  They don't want you blocking their yachts from entering or exiting the bay either.  And the environmentalists don't want you to alter the shape of other coastlines, even if the benefits could possiblely outweight the massive costs of construction work on any foreseeable timescale.

What I was taliking about was literally a controlled drain of the PAcific Ocean into the saltflats.  No dependency on weather patterns or the orbit of the moon.  24/7 power generation so long as the output water was at or lower than the average evaporation rate of Death VAlley, which is considerable.  Power forever, literally, so long as the pipes and gensets are maintained; in the same sense that most hydroelectric plants are power forever, so long as they are not damaged and the run of the river remains the same.  Difference only in which direction is the source and sink.  Again, it will never happen.  NIMBY all but garrantees that large scale geoengineering projects are imposssible, no matter the cost/benefit analysis of it all.

But who's going to scoop up the salt and put it back in the Pacific?  Or do we want to desalinate the oceans too?
2449  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 26, 2013, 10:36:15 PM
For the record, if I held DZZ or other good short positions, I would liquidate all of them tomorrow.

can you be more specific about your time frame here? sure it could have a reaction back up, but how many have money to spare to support higher gold prices?

Maņana? Before June 28th.

If you think of paper gold as a form of credit, the collapse in prices means that credit is drying up. Nobody wants to lend their asset out anymore.

Okay... paper gold is a form of credit.  So, by selling a claim I own on gold, somehow I'm expressing that I want to hold onto my physical?  How does that work?  Aren't the lenders having their locked up assets returned to a liquid position, thus raising physical supply?
2450  Economy / Services / Re: What would simple script/bot cost me ? on: June 26, 2013, 10:30:18 PM
Not so simple as reading HTML folks.

Websockets Wink

Except it is:
https://github.com/jnicklas/capybara

With that, I can run the site in a full browser and read the live DOM as I please.
2451  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:22:30 PM
I didn't realize this was the ripple thread. Excuse me while I go look for the MtGox thread. Roll Eyes

We all treat this as the lounge thread.  If you want to talk about MtGox, bring up an interesting point.
2452  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:21:01 PM
www.ripplescam.org

also tradefort's btc giveaway Cheesy

ripple is a long term scam with serious problems. i could steal over 100 btc today if i wanted to, using its flawed system to trade fake ious with legit ones seamlessly out of peoples wallets. to compare ripple to bitcoin is like comparing unicycles to ferraris.

You can only replace the legit ones with fake ones in the accounts of people who granted you trust.  It would be up to them to cover their losses or let it "ripple".
2453  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 10:19:28 PM
No. But only foolish people who care so little about money not to do a basic level of research will fall into this. If someone is careless enough to simply assume that extending trust is meaningless, without doing a modicum of research, he shouldn't be using Ripple. My advice to newbies: if you aren't willing to learn about Ripple, don't use it. Same goes for bitcoin -- lots of lost coins out there due to very careless people.

You should only trust an established business. If you want to trust your friend, just like IRL, he may never pay you back. I don't understand this idea that people need to trust everyone they know. That's just part of a marketing scheme to make Ripple more relevant to the average user. If my friends or family needed money, we'd figure out a way to get it to them. I don't need to extend trust to every single person (so that I never know whether or not my funds are liquid). If someone needs BTC, I can get them where they need to go easily and without any risk via Ripple.

I would agree insofar that people will make mistakes and get burned. Just like with everything else.

But that's just it.  Ripple is being marketed as a social network not a trusted exchange backbone system.
2454  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [700GH/s] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool on: June 26, 2013, 09:58:07 PM
1. Try the guide posted above.
2. If you can't get your latency down, mine with a public node.
3. If you want to mine with a public node, and also want to reduce variance, give this a try: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234841.0
2455  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-06-25 The DEA Just Seized 11 Bitcoins on: June 26, 2013, 09:45:06 PM
Interesting question:
What will they do with this "illegal" currency that they are now in possession of?
Send it to somewhere even more interesting by the looks of things. Not followed it far but its gone through an address that's had more than 10k coins go through it.

They probably just sold it on MtGox Tongue.
2456  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 09:32:54 PM
Ripple is great, IMO. It has incredible potential as a payment system and is far more versatile than bitcoin in that regard. In that way, since you can move in and out of so many currencies and IOU issuers, Ripple could be very useful for arbitraging. Too early at this point, though.

Ripple will either end with a whimper, as people realize what a bad idea it is, or with a bang, as people find out what a bad idea it is.

Bad idea, why? Do tell. If, like most detractors, you base this on the debt/trust system's potential for collapse, you should probably stay away from bitcoin exchanges as well.

So trusting a registered, established business is just as risky as trusting someone you don't know anything about who happens to be a friend of a friend of a friend?
2457  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: The Impending Stalemate on Mining Hardware and ROI on: June 26, 2013, 09:31:14 PM
If difficulty rises too high people stop buying hardware and inefficient hardware drops out.  Difficulty corrects.  End of story until the next price bubble hits.
2458  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device on: June 26, 2013, 09:29:45 PM
...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?
depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue.  So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months?  That's a pretty bold prediction
2459  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 26, 2013, 08:45:29 PM
BTC-e, Bter and Vicurex are all still down

What's going on, DDoS?

I don't know, it wouldn't surprise me.  LTC gains value due to the Gox news of it being included soon, suddenly the alt-currency exchanges are all under attack - but from who?  (US government or banks? (same thing)).  It seems very unlikely that they'd all have system failures simultaneously.  Who stands to gain from this?

Traders who want to shake confidence.
2460  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: June 26, 2013, 08:41:17 PM
Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?

Fine, a 6.25 year bull market.  One which possibly topped a few weeks ago.

So, again, were is the 4 year bull run?

what year is it again?


2015, obviously.  Tongue

Edit: Nice delete, sir.  Tongue

Nice quote Tongue

Anyway, sorry.  That figure came from the total cycle length (top to top).  We are over 6 years past the previous bull market top.  With an average 4 year timespan from top to top, we are due for a bear market and may have just put in the top in May.
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