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2461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 30, 2021, 01:13:29 AM
ETF would bring big money, but also levered players in obscure derivatives..witness the Archegos fiasco.
I wouldn't want btc to drop 30% because some dude invested in some "secret contracts" with counterparty banks (swaps or "contracts-for-difference").
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3127532/billions-secret-derivatives-lie-nub-archegos-leverage
No sireee.
2462  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2021, 05:10:52 PM
Good to HoDL, but better to (also) enjoy while we can!

It's possible to do both. Easy in fact.

I do both. At 64

I have 10 to 29 years of life left. My best guess.

The death clock says 17 to 20 years of life left .

So hodl is cool but I only hodl some mining earnings.

Since I >

1) mine
2) sell gear
3) buy gear
3) trade

the hodl part is pretty easy.
the spending part is harder.

This year a new he shed is part of the selling benefit.

I doubt the accuracy of these sites, especially the tight range (17-20).
Sometimes the numbers are also not very straightforward.
High BMI is considered bad, but higher BMI, when gained late in life, was recently found to be life-extending.
Possible reason: everyone loses weight in the last years of life (up to 10% or even more). Perhaps, if you have some extra BMI, you take longer time to get under some critically lower weight. At least this is my theory.
However, in fact, it is easy to have BMI under control if you live in a moderate climate and in a city that encourages walking.
2463  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2021, 06:13:16 PM

There won’t be any drop from $400k to $300k:

“It’s going up forever Laura”

Just short-term, man, just short-term!

https://youtu.be/W2Ct0ouRooY

She sounds a bit forcibly naive sometimes, probably striving for journalistic "objectivism", but Saylor sounds a bit funny too.
He is probably frustrated by the fact that every time btc drops in a fiscal quarter, he would have to report some asset impairement/depreciation.
LONG term, he is absolutely right (to a degree of still being within sane number aka less than all funds in the world), but saying that it will go up forever is an obvious exaggeration.
That said, it would be interesting to see if cycles would not have much effect after 2025. I am reasonably sure that we would have at least one more or less "classical" cycle to look forward to.
2464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2021, 03:56:26 AM
These cups/plates and a figurine are messing with my head on a quiet Saturday night.
....

usually what messes with my head on a quiet Saturday night comes in a brown bottle.
 ....or on this particular night, it happens to come in a flat green tinged bottle that I mix with a spot of tonic and twist of lemon.... (on ice of course)

GO BITCOIN




Cheers!
2465  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2021, 03:26:43 AM
These cups/plates and a figurine are messing with my head on a quiet Saturday night.
As far as perception goes, there is no objective reality, as expected.
I can almost make myself see either way (on demand).

EDIT: To think a bit more about this, maybe such change in perception and our brains plasticity are the underlying cause of the sudden changes on the stock market or in bitcoin.
Suddenly, the point of view changes 180 degrees. Glass half-full becomes half empty. I remember the change in Feb-March 2000. Suddenly, there was absolutely NO liquidity and you could not sell a measly 1000 shares without a $2 price decline. I was selling out of one stock and had to do 20-40 sells for a 4K shares position (100-200 shares at the time, otherwise the vapid MM just dropped the price like a fiend).
2466  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 27, 2021, 11:32:11 PM
It seems whatever your brain latches on first.
One time I looked and it was cw, next time ccw.
disturbing.

EDIT: It changes if I close one eye.

EDIT 2: Here is another anecdote-there is a spot in your retina, which has no light receptors, called the optic disk (blind spot). Yet, you don't see a round hole in your vision field.
Your brain performs 'filling-in', like an advanced photoshop and you don't notice anything unusual, the field of vision is smooth. There is some way you can find the blind spot, but it is a bit involved.

... if you focus on the ballerina's foot she goes one direction, focus on the top of the head and it reverses

hmm...not for me
for me if I look at the head, it goes in a certain direction, then reverses, then AFTER it reversed and I look at the feet, it does not change again (for the second time).
The clincher is that it changes once, then stays put (experiences could vary, of course).
2467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 27, 2021, 11:20:57 PM
It seems whatever your brain latches on first.
One time I looked and it was cw, next time ccw.
disturbing.

its also started one way and then reversed and gone the other way half way through a couple times.

yes, that happened too.

EDIT: at least the bathtub water typically swirls cw (in the Northern hemisphere). The legend says that it goes ccw in the Southern, but HM (or any other "southie") need to make an appearance to confirm if it is so.
2468  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 27, 2021, 10:49:09 PM
It seems whatever your brain latches on first.
One time I looked and it was cw, next time ccw.
disturbing.

EDIT: It changes if I close one eye.

EDIT 2: Here is another anecdote-there is a spot in your retina, which has no light receptors, called the optic disk (blind spot). Yet, you don't see a round hole in your vision field.
Your brain performs 'filling-in', like an advanced photoshop and you don't notice anything unusual, the field of vision is smooth. There is some way you can find the blind spot, but it is a bit involved.
2469  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 27, 2021, 04:23:54 AM
Observing $55,370.

ATH next week I reckon  Cool

<snip>

Sometimes I look at planB  S2F chart predicting $5mil/btc in 2025.
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1375483627090419716

That would be absolutely wild, wouldn't it?
I cannot comprehend the meaning of that number (~100X from here).


It will go up much higher, hench 100trillionUSD. Model ends after corn captured real estate, it's unknown territory after that.

1 full coin is basically enough to retire at that time but WO'rs will hodl more than just 1. Cool



actually, $5mil per btc is that 100tril  Grin
5000000X21000000=105000000000000 or 105X10^12 or 105 tril, but who is counting
2470  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 27, 2021, 01:10:17 AM
Observing $55,370.

ATH next week I reckon  Cool

<snip>

Sometimes I look at planB  S2F chart predicting $5mil/btc in 2025.
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1375483627090419716

That would be absolutely wild, wouldn't it?
I cannot comprehend the meaning of that number (~100X from here).
2471  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2021, 07:59:44 PM
Check out this old vid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_t39jCXXIrY

Now it is worth >1000X more.
What happens in the next 8 years?
2472  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2021, 07:28:51 PM
That's everyone's story though ... everyone knew about Bitcoin when it was a buck.

I was late to the party apparently.
I cannot even remember the price being in the double digits, honestly.

Stacking sats now. All the best I can do. Purchasing land out of the realm of possible things for the moment.

But I am happy as it is right now. Still early compared to the mass. And who knows what would have I done if I had purchased 1000 BTC at 1.

@Jimbotoronto: congrats marrying the right girl.

I remember perfectly well when I first heard about btc-it was the Wired story in Nov 2011 and btc just bottomed at $2 after being at $32 beforehand.
Wired was grim, plus I spent exactly 2 min on the article and got distracted by the word "Linux" as far as where to run it. Back then I had no clue about Linux.
An opportunity missed. In retrospect, that probably left me never making a MtGox account, which was for the better, obviously.
Next time was October 2013 and Senate hearings-got progressively more interested with a full interest since maybe Nov 2013-at the peak of that cycle.
2473  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2021, 05:20:56 PM
we added an extra $100kCAD an hour before the vendor was considering all the offers. The extra hundred grand was nothing compared to the millions by which our coins increased in value while we patiently waited.

She's glad now that we waited. We get our lake and our millions.

Thank you Bitcoin.


Wow, that's a pretty good vendor intel right there.
Is it typical in Canada to be told the decision time by an hour?
I never heard about it here, where they just vaguely tell you that a better offer was received.
One time my buying agent was clearly in cahoots with the selling agent (that is completely illegal)-we even had to have a consult with a lawyer.
2474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2021, 04:48:22 PM
If I did have a wife and she dared to shout at me for not selling the top or for buying the dip, I would literally say to her "pack your things and get the hell out of my house".

Well, sometimes it is not a shout, but crying, as others attested.
I was talked to for not selling at 20K (actually, I initially promised to sell at 10K, but then decided not to).
It all worked itself out, but hear this..the wife informed me that she has some house and garden projects in mind and it is basically non-negotiable.
I don't mind at all, considering that the projects make sense. Why not bring a bit more enjoyment in lieu of spending something?
Fortunately, I don't have to sell btc to do this.
2475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2021, 03:03:05 AM
First, they forced the guy to commit suicide in lieu of imminent chemical castration ordered as a punishment for being gay.
Now they put him on a 50 pound note.
It's like...oopsie.."He wouldn't mind".
Just look at that...they like to celebrate the dead, not the living.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JepmXCFFU_o
2476  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2021, 07:39:31 PM
..the dumb ideas contained therein end up coming true.

...a classic misnomer.
Blows up on his/hers/its own petard..and lives to tell the tale as if nothing happened, lol.
This phrase is a clear candidate for adoption (slightly below HODL in significance...yet).
In fact, this is EXACTLY what most of the Street keep saying about bitcoin.
2477  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 25, 2021, 02:18:33 AM
Actually, I was thinking about who Musk might be in the WO, and surely proudhon would be a decent candidate.

The general tone is in the right place, but does account age check out?

Proudhon's been around far too long to be Musk.

I can confirm. I am not Elon Musk.

Oh, no, he confirms...with math and science.
Shocking, but then it could be true (it went from 0.0001% to maybe above 1% chance).
2478  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2021, 11:33:57 PM
Sucky blockfi reduced the interest to 0.5% for over 20btc.
Soon it would be a zero or a negative number, just like GBTC premium (negative right now).
This does not look good as far as the desirability of these services.
2479  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2021, 03:38:39 PM
Unfortunately, some people who know I have bitcoin seem not to care for my opsec and will happily discuss the fact that I hold btc with anyone they feel like. Which is annoying, since I don't go around talking about anyone else's finances. So I am wondering how to address this issue. It didn't seem to matter many years ago that I had told a few of my friends about my btc holdings but now, at these prices, it's something I wish I hadn't done.

Anyone else in the same boat?

Pretty much everyone...      

Yeah, I was discussing this with my gf the other day. She has family members that have told loads of other family members. It’s really irritating, I don’t want to be having to face questions like -

‘So how many bitcoin do you have’
‘What are they all worth’
‘When will you sell’

Mind your own damn business. I don’t ask to see your wages or bank statements, assholes.

Yeah it’s suddenly started for me.  People asking how many I have, including teen kids of friends.  I don’t tell them of course but still.  

Boating accident in 3... 2... 1...  Cheesy
Good thing was, when we started extending the house, bitcoin price was sub $10k, so it's absolutely plausible that i had to sell all my corn to pay for work and material.
So, i'd recommend you to think a bit about your "exit story" and do some rehearsals with your wife and/or kids.

I promised one of my kids a fraction of btc sometime back as a reward for doing something productive.
It was either btc or opening of the Roth IRA with the same $ value. BTC was chosen (a wise decision by a kid).
I better fulfill that promise before that fraction exceeds yearly gift limits.
The "danger" is that the kid would brag to friends.
I remember jbreher giving whole btcs to his relatives on their bd. Not possible these days without filling some tax forms. In US, we can only give up to $15K/person/year without filling forms.
2480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 24, 2021, 03:29:24 PM


ha, when you drive off the lot almost ANY car would depreciate 9-11% instantly, it's a fact, so harping about btc volatility is a non-starter.
What if btc declines 10%? lol
In addition, people like this always forget about the REPLACEMENT trade, which is available.
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