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You mad, bro?
A rhetorical question.
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. I am bearish until the next halving though if I’m honest.
.... aaaand this is a bullish sign imo.... you were wahwahwahwall of worrying it the whole way up to fake top of ~60k when you sold out to fiat Sold 25% of my stash that I held since 2014. I now never have to work again, I’m mid 30’s. I don’t regret selling that 25% one bit. It saves me from deludedly thinking we’re going to 200k or something this cycle. The top is in imo, I’ve made peace with that. On the way up to 60k I was a bitch because I was 100% bitcoin, my life literally depended on it. Now I’m sitting on large fiat bags & more bitcoin than (I’m pretty sure) 99% of people in this thread. - If we moon this year I sell more
- If we dump, I buy most of what I sold back at a big discount
- If we’re in a crab market for 18 months, cool
My opinion is we won’t see another ATH until after the next halving in 2024. We’ll probably rocket to 300k or something amazingly high in 2025. That’s how this works, 4 year cycles, bull to bear to bull to bear & repeat. You know that though. Selling 25% gave me peace of mind, I can sleep at night now. I’m currently in the process of buying a new house with cash (no mortgage - thanks to bitcoin). There was no way I was going through another cycle shitting myself after selling nothing AGAIN. We all have families to support & decisions to make. I think I’ve played it near perfectly to be honest. I have nothing but respect for this position. And it makes crazy good sense. I have cashed in some of my stack at various times over the years. And the defense I have for it is pretty simple. - If it goes up? Well that's the problem I WANT right there. I still have most of it. - If it goes down? Well hooray me... My Bitcoin secured some luxury for me. - I don't live forever. And I can't take it to my grave. - Making my kids billionaires will ruin both them AND their children. I *do* think you are possibly wrong about your cycle thesis. Even though I support your reasoning behind your hedge. In fact I think it's a damn good hedge (really... that's my point here). I could have retired multiple times just in what I lost between 2018-2020 on the only alt coin I own. It's regained ALL that value in the last year... and will again, I think. And it's my smaller position. I went through the same pain you did. But that pain did something really weird to me. It made me realize that I will be about as happy as I am whether or not I have the money. All my joy and all my problems will persist whether I can afford ... well whatever. And I am naturally frugal. Got it from my dad, I guess. I have never NEEDED the money. That said... looks like I have some relatives who may need to be taken care of. So you better bet your ass I will make sure that can happen. That's why I see your position as righteous. You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am. And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do. But who knows? nice writeup too... The future is HIGHLY uncertain now, I feel. Maybe descendants might need a good cave instead of cash  . Athough, unless LFC cashed out mid 7 digits (or even low 8 digits), i don't think you can be 100% sure that it would be enough for the next 40-50 years (if peaceful).. and that is the expected remaining life span for a healthy 35 year old. Not trying to pin it down, just bracketing. |
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Never thought about it but i wonder how many WO people are already on retirement mode?
not me...honestly, retirement scares me a bit after working for a long time. work does organize life a bit...good habits like waking up earlier than otherwise and not internet surfing until late at night. I can see myself retired, but would need a project. Possibilities: 1. Serious traveling with staying a month or two in new places. 2. "Collecting" real estate. Becoming a landlord? Some people say that it is quite boring and tiresome. Running after nonpaying people? I don't see myself doing that. 3. Mining venture? I am not living close to low cost electricity and solar is still expensive to set up. 4. Charity or direct funding of some research project(s)? Sounds interesting, but not now. 5. Going into investment aka diversifying from bitcoin? Why making too many moves when just one (bitcoin) seems to be quite successful. |
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Macron already warned about this at the start of the war, in fact it might have happened even without the war, as several countries have had problems making wheat.
I don't think we'll get to not having enough food, at least not in the West, the problem is getting food to countries that are the most affected by this. One idea is to suspend the EU's plan for reducing food production (due to previous overproduction that crashed the prices).
As for his proposal of food vouchers, it's a campaign proposal as the election is in 3 weeks. In France we already have money handouts to the poor, unemployed etc., with one criticism of the system that it can be abused, you can do anything with the money, so I think he's trying his usual "two birds, one stone" approach, offering more help to the poorest, but ensuring that help will really go to food.
So the usual famine and wars in Africa, South America. India? But to middle class, you might have a small problem with the distribution of wealth when you need to provide food vouchers to middle class There would be NO 'middle class' in a situation that resembles "Soylent Green". Do I seriously think that we are going there? Hopefully, not, but the food availability implications of the current war are a bit unnerving. |
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Makes me sad that I did not do anything when learning of bitcoin existence in late 2011 (price around $2). For most people bitcoin required a couple of looks, or maybe it was just me. EDIT: I guess everyone gets btc price they deserve (research, commitment, courage/risk taking). |
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What's up with Ukraine legalizing crypto after receiving millions in donations in crypto, and then the largest bank in Ukraine suspending money transfers to crypto exchanges? Ukraine’s Largest Bank Suspends Money Transfers to Crypto ExchangesAlso, I think this is gonna have some impact on the market price in the short-mid term, might make breaking $46,000 difficult in the short term? I guess, they want to use crypto that is coming in, but not allow their fiat (hryvnia?) to be converted to 'hard' currency and taken out, maybe even moved elsewhere thereby probably affecting the course of their currency. Maybe something temporary; i don't think it matters as far as btc is concerned. |
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.... CAPS ALL OVER THE PLACE... and lots of tadpoles
As soon as I see a post with random CAPS , and bloviating about quote "I have a LARGE respectful following who KNOW me very well and what I'm about" I'm like "oh gawd.... fucking spare me...."  GO BITCOIN  That's a nice looking tadpole you got there  |
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they seem fine to me... I was walking through a beach area with a bunch of young folks partying down - and sometimes I was overhearing some of their nonsense conversations, and it seems like they do and talk about a lot of similar dumb shit as I used to do and talk about when younger...
Of course, the technology seems to change some of the matters - but still it is easy enough to see that some of the folks are more awkward than others and some of the chicks are more scantily dressed than others... not that I was looking very closely.. oh my, is she even old enough to have that beer in her hands? same shit, no? vaping instead of smoking, but still some smoking going on too...
I still go to tons of concerts and the kids sit there like lumps and don't even get up, its a disgrace. classical music, maybe? otherwise, it used to be a high energy affair...haven't been in maybe 5-7 years, though. |
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@jjg-why being SO angry all the time?
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I prefer bi-chromatic TA (red and green), lol.
..maybe an occasional blue...
.."until we know it".
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Paper traders and MSM would have you believe bitcoin is just another asset class....its not.
I wish we would get an asset class valuation first (at least $10-15 tril aka $500-750K per) before having serious dibs on larger inspirations, which are more down the line (could be a decade), imho. |
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Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch? (Not saying we Will... But if we do...) I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid. But it isn't. Yet. I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time. But it simply is not yet. If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that. We may get to see!  Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024. I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025? Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too. To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years. The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'. |
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Hate to break it to you...we are in a bear market...or will be...of the likes this generation has never seen.
Can the 'system' take it? We are already about 10-11% down, but some fluffy techs are already down more than 50% and some large techs-20-40%. If stock market goes down another 30% or more, combined with high actual inflation and no interest on savings, it would be catastrophic, imho. How are we going to get out of that possible predicament? I have no idea. Of course, bitcoin is my core remediation strategy, but even that could be negated (or at least it is possible). |
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@jjg..i am still of the opinion of the $30-60K band.
Buy close to the bottom, sell (or sell calls) close to the top of this range (if you are a trader).
I am not trading bitcoin, though.
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Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here.
So his reason to say negative things to me on is because I have been posting Bearish things earlier. Doesn't that shows my stand on something which I believe is going to happen? People don't even understand the word "Opinion". The discrimination is surreal and affects my mental health. This place is not OPEN for discussion, this place is just another thread where they want to hear only HOPIUM news for BTC. Sick. I believe you are partially correct. You have posted a wide range of things. Some very bearish. Any models predicting a low UNDER the last cycle top will be pushed back on. But you're right. This place is full of irrational bulls. I may be the worst. You are being picked on a lot. Sometimes for valid reasons. Sometimes not. But I think overall a little much. some people (like @jjg) always fly off the handle, harassing anyone with ANY opinion that is different from hers/his/its. then, they try to put their notion of YOUR opinion into your mouth. |
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These models seem like bullshit for me. If we really got the TOP in November 2021 for this 4years cycle (so only X3.5 of the 2017 ATH), why we should make more (X5 X6) as written in your models on the next one?
Chill the F out guys, the Model I posted is the one Toxic2040 posted the same day. You didn't told him that these models looks bullshit? I don't see any replies to him the way you said to me? I guess it's just the mentality of yours that everything ImThour post is bullshit. On the other hand, I don't care what you guys think. I can post whatever I want to post, press that Ignore if you can't take my bullshit. Stop cornering me or hating me for sharing something someone else already did without getting any hatred. Sick mentality people. Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here. |
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Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
Biggest BS of the year! All blowoff tops were actually parabolic rallies!  Where did you see a blowoff top in a day? the param for blowoff top is typically 100% in a MONTH (which is 3.3% a day, on average), FOLLOWING the long term slower rise beforehand (do you see this here somewhere?). Check your charts, buddy. besides, didn't it just reverse for like a 4th-5th time? |
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Beware of the fast moving markets.
Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
I want to be optimistic, but this is the way bear market grinds you.
Even the fast pump in April of 2019 eventually reversed fully in March of 2020 (covid-dump), although I wouldn't mind a pop like that (it was from about $4K to $14K between april and june-july 2019). In our case a pop to 55k might be the equivalent.
Depends man. Stop being toxic.  If the people that bought don't sell / day trade. Then it will blow back up. toxic? maybe your shrooms, lol |
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