Bitcoin and ModelsI have created 3 models using Power Law and DPC Model whose data was provided to me by @DeFi_initiate. This below chart contains the prediction of all these models (2021-2026):1. Power Law 2. DPC Model 3. AVGPD - Average of Power Law and DPC Model 4. AVGD2 - Average of DPC Model and AVGPD 5. AVGALL - Average of Power Law, DPC Model, AVGPD and AVGD2. Lowest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $35,099 DPC: $18,334 AVGPD: $33,123 AVGD2: $25,944 AVGALL: $31,382 Highest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $217,776 DPC: $389,245 AVGPD: $267,594 AVGD2: $328,420 AVGALL: $282,801  These models seem like bullshit for me. If we really got the TOP in November 2021 for this 4years cycle (so only X3.5 of the 2017 ATH), why we should make more (X5 X6) as written in your models on the next one? Look like just another casino game prediction. Not necessarily. If 69K is/was THE top, it is still more than 20X from the bottom (X22.25 for accuracy). Therefore, if the bottom was (or would be in case of a double bottom) 29K (roughly), then even a half of prior rise (from the bottom) is 11.1X or $321K TL;DR It's possible if you count from the bottom, not from the top. |
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Bitcoin and ModelsI have created 3 models using Power Law and DPC Model whose data was provided to me by @DeFi_initiate. This below chart contains the prediction of all these models (2021-2026):1. Power Law 2. DPC Model 3. AVGPD - Average of Power Law and DPC Model 4. AVGD2 - Average of DPC Model and AVGPD 5. AVGALL - Average of Power Law, DPC Model, AVGPD and AVGD2. Lowest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $35,099 DPC: $18,334 AVGPD: $33,123 AVGD2: $25,944 AVGALL: $31,382 Highest BTC Price by All these Models for 2022-2026:Power Law: $217,776 DPC: $389,245 AVGPD: $267,594 AVGD2: $328,420 AVGALL: $282,801 That's nice. It looks like there will be a great opportunity to BTFD on 01/01/2023. Got to make sure I load Kraken with a good amount of funny money (a.k.a. fiat) before then. sometimes the year starts with a "fake" move in the opposite direction, like in Jan 2015. js |
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Bitcoin checking its daily To-Do list since Dec-2020  It is kind of funny that it does nothing for more than a year, then boom-bam...late 2014-Oct 2015 was the exact same behavior and even a tighter range. Anybody remember that $225-275 stuff? lol |
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I'm not making a moral argument, or saying we should be living in huts or anything like that. I'm taking a long haul flight across the Atlantic in ten days to vacation in the Caribbean (a certain socialist island...). I just think as we focus more and more on reducing emissions, POW cryptos will become a target, as well as other excessive emitters of CO2. Flying serves a purpose, whereas for most people cryptos don't. I even think it could be an existential threat to Bitcoin.
There is absolutely NO civilizationional purpose for you to haul your ass across the globe for a vacation, none whatsoever. It's just your whim and civilization obliges (for now). EU 'greens' should restrain themselves from air traveling first and foremost or travel by dirigibles. Case closed. |
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Personally I'm in favor of BTC moving to POS or something else to reduce its energy use. Maybe something like masternodes where you would need 1 BTC by masternode, a bit like ETH 2.0
A lot of thought needs to go into it of course, the security of the protocol must be preserved.
And the transition would be over something like 5 years so that miners can recoup their investment.
I'm well aware of the difficulty in getting consensus so that BTC can evolve, and this is only my opinion, I have no coding skills to contribute, I have stopped maths long ago after an overdose of it in university...
How we get there, I don't know, but it would be a good outcome. I could imagine small coiners joining up to invest in a node, so that even poor countries can participate. And that would leave one less reason for government crackdowns, of course.
I don't see how it is possible, period. That said, I remember seeing a table where btc energy use is infinitesimally lower in CO2 release than usage of airplanes. Electricity use does not mean something 'bad" since EV use electricity-DUH! ESG crowd energy better spend there. A totally made-up problem. |
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That makes no sense. I mean, it's great that the energy is being used for something useful but it's still CH4+202 -> CO2+2H20 Left-wing math, presumably. If the methane is burned off (hence flare gas), then it's purely an economic issue when it's used for bitcoin mining instead but many oil companies just vent the gas (since it's less dense than air) into the atmosphere rather than burn it and in that case, the unburned methane has somewhere over 20 times the effect of CO 2 as a greenhouse gas. This is why they're going after cattle as well. We're going to have to tap those cattle next for bitcoin mining. Bitcoin miners will also try to make the case that using flare gas removes some reliance from other fossil fuels which have a higher carbon content and coal (pretty much all carbon). I'm not sure I buy that logic because if the energy comes cheaply enough from flare gas, then older, less efficient bitcoin miners could be used where they would be too inefficient for use within the existing electrical distribution system. I am not sure how we can reduce methane production by cattle without reducing cattle numbers. For a second there I imagine attaching a methane collecting box to their behinds, but then....it is not possible. On a large scale the solution is an artificial photosynthesis process, no doubt. In photosynthesis (done by plants), CO2 is captured from the atmosphere and sugars and oxygen (as a byproduct) are produced. Two problems: 1. Splitting water at the ambient temperature and 2. Running the system at relatively low CO2 concentration (as plants are able to do). However, it is a scientific/engineering problem that can be eventually solved aka there is NO reasoning as to why it cannot work in principle. Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_photosynthesis |
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... to derive value in the market, a phenomenon known as "shared subjectivity" which blurs the line between subjectivity and objectivity arises, whereby money derives a "shared subjective value" price from market participants who come to pricing agreements in trading based on the performance of various functions and intrinsic properties of the monetary good .... these functions and properties that are usually ascribed to monetary goods that perform well in the shared subjective value stakes of monetary markets are well-known and described by over a century by classical monetary economists
According to Desjardins,[28] "many economists and experts in the field agree" that the functions of money are that it is a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. To fulfill these various functions, he states that money must be:[28]
Fungible: its individual units must be capable of mutual substitution (i.e., interchangeability).
Durable: able to withstand repeated use.
Divisibile: divisible to small units.
Portable: easily carried and transported.
Acceptable: everyone must accept the money as payment
Uniform: all units of the same denomination have the same value
Limited in supply: its supply in circulation must be limited.[28]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money... none of this is controversial, learn what money is, how it works and you will be good with money, like any other complex tool that aids in your survival. You shouldn't drive a car or shoot a firearm without learning how it works. According to this definition ANY money is not "MONEY". Fungible: its individual units must be capable of mutual substitution (i.e., interchangeability) - does not work if you have the same 'money', but happens to be in a 'wrong" jurisdiction. Durable: able to withstand repeated use- irrelevant because of point #1 Divisibile: divisible to small units.- irrelevant because of point #1 Portable: easily carried and transported.- irrelevant because of point #1; in addition, you might not be able to transport anything aka being stuck Acceptable: everyone must accept the money as payment.- definetly completely impossible as NOBODY is currently accepting a particular form of money for payment. You might not be able to pay with cash in some places, credit card in other, bitcoin in third, etc, etc.. bitcoin is not accepted everywhere, you cannot pay in almost any store with a gold bar or a heap of silver. Uniform: all units of the same denomination have the same value- almost within reach right now, but with some caveats that could be enforced to become insurmountable in the future (as far as bitcoin is concerned) Limited in supply: its supply in circulation must be limited.- important, but not relevant in the case of restrictions on use. |
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I am coming to realization that money has no real value. It's pretty shocking, actually.
Whether this includes bitcoin, it is still an open question, but better than the rest, of course.
I can use money in my pocket right now of course, but what about a situation when some goods are absent as it started happening (mostly outside of US for now)?
I am also a bit shocked that bitcoin did not go up 50% recently, considering what happened with fiat. Flat city.
Does property have value? Maybe, unless you are not the 'right' person at the time. If you are not, people might not respect your property rights.
So, chalk off property as well. It has been a nice 77 years of stability in that respect, not anymore.
What is of value: imho, it is your geographical location, access to readily available resources (I am talking about food and water mostly), freedom of movement.
Bitcoin could play a role in the last two (or even all three) params.
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 https://twitter.com/jack/status/1502358737981521925Fingerprints, batteries and people.We’re building a wallet that will be easy to use for everyone. In our first post, we covered how we’re accomplishing this: we’re building a combination of hardware and a mobile application that will let you choose how you want to balance the convenience of using the app for transfers and the security of requiring the hardware for authorizing higher stakes money movement. This means that the hardware is only one part of the experience - in fact, only a small part. Customers will primarily manage their money by interacting with the mobile application we’re building, and will only need to interact with the hardware in combination with the mobile app to authorize larger, less frequent transactions above an amount of their choosing.
For transactions that require using the wallet hardware, we want our customers to be able to unlock their wallets securely, but with ease - an unlikely combination that historically has not existed in the market. We believe PINs, passwords, and seed phrases are confusing and often not secure given the workarounds normal people have to create given all the friction. This compounds when the need for those passwords are more rare.
Instead, to achieve seamless authentication in practice, we plan to incorporate a fingerprint sensor into the wallet hardware. Every authentication technology comes with tradeoffs. We’re excited about the security against theft or misuse that this will provide, the peace of mind that will come from not needing to remember yet another PIN, and the ease of placing a finger on the sensor rather than manipulating tiny, failure-prone buttons on a difficult-to-read screen. We're aware of limitations we'll need to design around - for example, some customers will want to share access to their money without relying only on their fingerprint. As we build the product, we'll evaluate additional access methods that customers could opt into. And of course, fingerprint sensor data will never leave the hardware device. But don’t take our word for it - listen to the independent community that will be able to inspect and verify our source code. Are there other limitations we should be designing around?
Additionally, as we’ve continued to design the hardware component of the wallet, we recently chose to use a rechargeable lithium polymer battery and USB-C port to power the device. We believe this is the best choice for this product, as it optimizes for the best customer experience and design. We shared our thinking and solicited feedback using a SPADE, a decision document format commonly used within Block. You can read more about our decision here. pretty stupid, imho, unless it comes with two params with a second be a simultaneous temperature sensor  ( and maybe a third measuring adrenalin levels) |
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car were illegal there for a while too, or, rather, you had to have a representative with a flag running ahead of the car and warning pedestrians (and horses). Boris: "Lovely", "I'm chuffed to bits!"...."bloody well done!" |
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@jjg...of course I am not happy, considering everything else, duh!
In this situation, popping to 50-53K would be within possibility, but not necessarily the most probable scenario.
You are right about 46 as it represents roughly 50% recovery (not a fib per se, but closely followed by the TA people).
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a bit tired of all those fake moves.
$39.67K
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The world is on fire.
Again.
Meh.
Somehow, I expected the Fourth Turning to be a bit more benign, silly me. |
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  After a massive surgery last year…. 8 March 2022 will remembered when losing my best friend. So sorry to hear it. Thinking of getting a dog, but this would have broken my heart too. Still, great memories remain with us even when they are gone. |
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Why use EMA, then?
Yet, I don't see why we would want to start referring to the EMA in these here parts when there are a lot of folks who refer to the regular MA to make various points.. and there seems to be a lot of analysis that largely account for the MA (and do not refer to the EMA)... .. and if you are throwing out other references such as the EMA, then maybe it just comes off as gobbledy-gook since many of us have not really looked into it or tried to figure out why we would want to use it. If you insist on using the EMA rather than the MA, then maybe you should be pointing out why it is either something that we need to pay attention or that there is some meaning and value in using it, rather than merely seeming to contribute to chaos and confusion.. ...
I have been using EMA forever and works good for me and is also a good support/resistance level for the BTC in the past. I have never used MA or SMA in any of my analysis. "Since EMAs place a higher weighting on recent data than on older data, they are more reactive to the latest price changes than SMAs are, which makes the results from EMAs more timely and explains why the EMA is the preferred average among many traders." - https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/difference-between-simple-exponential-moving-average/well, but this makes the phrase 'bitcoin has never gone below 200wk average [for more than a week]" meaningless, as shown in your own chart above, hence it cannot predict the all-important bottom, which is quite important. in fact, the chart shows that you cannot predict almost anything based on 200wk EMA. |
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200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.
200 EMA of Weekly is at $25,800. OK, but the confusing part in this is that most of other TA parties/people are using another type (SMA). Why use EMA, then? |
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200 of what?
I doubt that it is 200 weekly as that one has just gone over 20K recently.
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