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2581  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread on: February 26, 2015, 10:14:17 PM
why is my blockchain stuck?

still with Armory 0.92.3 and Bitcoin Core 0.9.3 in Ubuntu 12.04 LTS 32 bit.

Care to elaborate?

nvm, fixed.

when is the 0.93 update going to work with my OS?
2582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 26, 2015, 06:59:13 PM


Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default


Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging.  They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.



In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?

less than 10% of U.S. dollars are created by Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. The rest are created when fractional reserve banks lend out demand deposits, meaning the money is in two places at once. (in your checking account and with the loan recipient).   This is the money multiplier. But when banks stop lending as they did in 2008, the existing loans still are getting paid back so the money created out of thin air disappears. The money multiplier runs in reverse. Less money chasing the same amount of goods and services= deflation.


Indeed. The '08-'09 crisis showed an impressive drop that hasn't recovered: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

So what do we think happens if/when it *does* recover, after base-money has been expanded by $Ts? Can and will the Fed contract *perfectly*? This all boils down to how well they can thread the needle.

I don't know about you guys, but my bet is that a small group of people can't perfectly handle an increasingly complex (mathematically chaotic) system with almost absolute perfection over arbitrarily long time-periods.

That said, the only hope is an unprecedented US-tech driven multi-decade global expansion (which can actually happen if regulators and congress back off for a while).

It's quite likely we passed a complexity point where a small group of people can't perfectly manage this system around the end of the last century.

Volatility has exploded since the late 90's, first a massive stock bubble, then massive crash, then a massive housing bubble, then an even bigger crash, now a more massive debt and central bank bubble. The fact that the swings are becoming larger and more pronounced shows they are losing the ability to manage all this leverage, which is exactly what you need to do when the banking sector is leveraged more than 10x.

After the last crash, this small group of people openly stated "never again". Meaning they were going to lean on the side of accommodation more than ever before to make absolute sure we're protected against the downside. The reason is the last crash unexpectedly started to run out of their control and demonstrated that their ability to predict and forecast is becoming less and less accurate, which in turn forces them to hedge more and more on the upside.

The problem with this is it means they acknowledged that because they don't understand or can control the system well enough, it is now necessary to hedge on the upside to make up for this lack of understanding and control.

What this also means is both the next blow up and then crash down will be even more pronounced and even further beyond their control. Your only hedge against this is to get as much as possible out of the banking system and anything it touches.

it's still crystal clear in my mind back in 2008 how Tim Geithner said over and over that "we" needed to use massive force to prevent a meltdown.  naturally, as head of the NY Fed at the time, this meant massive money printing to hand over to the banks in the form of bailouts.  now, he has the audacity to say that the economy is weak b/c he wasn't allowed to use enough massive force.  as if the banks didn't make enough as it is from what they did.  and as if the wealth disparity that resulted wasn't enough from what he did.  Bernanke was being lead around by the ear by Geithner and Paulson at the time.  don't let Geithner re-write history as he desperately is trying to do.
2583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 25, 2015, 11:05:45 AM
FED regular BS sponsored by coindesk:

Boston Fed Researchers: We’re Bullish on Bitcoin as a Technology

http://www.coindesk.com/boston-fed-bullish-bitcoin/

Sometimes i wonder what the heck is going on at coindesk.
Promoting scams, craving regulation, and all the insipid piece of article they can come up with..

If you had asked the Fed one year ago, they would have said they were bearish on Bitcoin as a currency and as a technology. I  think their hubris is beginning to falter as evidenced by their need to hedge the technology.
2584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 25, 2015, 12:27:49 AM
-I repeat, 100% decentralisation (even tho bitcoin is not) is preferable only by bitcoin cultists. RL can't force transactions on anyone on the network and the network can be run by other individuals with a network of validators even if RL were to fail tomorrow, that's as much decentralisation as you need. The rest is cultists stuff.
-See above.
-doesn't change the fact that is artificial and 100% replacable by any shitcoin. Gold is not.
-It is used for itself, what more do you need me to say?
-In case you didn't get it, I don't give a shit about "sound money" austrian economics bullshit, I don't give a shit about gold and I don't think gold is better money (lol) than fiat currencies. I just can see that the comparison bitcoin-gold doesn't make sense.

no one cares what you repeat.  no one's listening to you.

Ripple is a failure.  just a couple of months ago all the gatesways had to defer to one centralized gateway b/c of network problems.  nothing that catastrophic has ever happened to Bitcoin.  plus it's all based on debt, another huge problem.
2585  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 25, 2015, 12:23:56 AM
you can see that we formed a proper, highly capitulative bottom on 1/14.  the long term MACD continues to strengthen:


1. It's high volume only because price is lower (1k BTC at $1200 ≠ 1k BTC at $250). Check the volume on USD and poof, no difference:




2. Last time the 1 week MACD shifted to green, it was at $650-$680 right before the crash.

price is strengthening.  no two ways about it.
2586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 11:40:32 PM
you can see that we formed a proper, highly capitulative bottom on 1/14.  the long term MACD continues to strengthen:

2587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 11:35:19 PM
Intersting thread! It's so much nicer in here than the wall observer. I might be able to learn something from the seniors here. go bitcoin!

thanks.  i try to keep it level-headed, technical, and intellectual.  takes alot of work and time but it is well worth it.  most of the guys in here have been around from the beginning, know their stuff, and have the ability to engage in abstract thought.

unfortunately we have to put up with the likes of NJHJT and NLC from time to time.
2588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 04:40:17 PM


The lack of understanding continues right up to the eve of Ethereum's planned release. No comprehension of the ledger, still thinking in terms of "tokens" and "blockchain tech is the important thing, not the money."

He's simultaneously totally wrong and completely right.  

How he's right:
The concept of a database with per record access protection is incredibly useful.  For example, you'll be able to actually receive electronic financial statements or other legal documents and not worry that they will be retroactively changed without your knowledge, because your private key is needed to change them.  You could even imagine a bank that cannot change your USD balance without your OK...

For many of these databases tokens are unnecessary.  The cost of maintaining the database is simply part of ongoing operations just like databases today.  Ethereum is overly complex for this task.  Bitcoin is overly complex.  You could throw out all the mining logic, most of the scripting, etc because the DB does not need to be decentralized.

How he's wrong:
The killer app for a "database with per record access protection" is money because money is memory.  So Bitcoin.



how is that helpful to society when you, the acct holder, can change/alter them?
2589  Bitcoin / Armory / Re: Armory - Discussion Thread on: February 24, 2015, 04:35:36 PM
You may want to consider some updates to the online dllinks.txt file at some point...

Will Bitcoin 0.10.0 become available through the secure downloader, now that Armory officially supports it?

Speaking of updates to the dllinks.txt file Wink (that's the file that would need updating and re-signing for 0.10.0 to become available).

Yes it will, the problem is that it's not split up by Armory version, so updating 0.10 in the secure downloader would push it to the all the 0.92.3 users as well, who haven't upgraded.  I figured I would remove all the torrent code and push 0.10 all at once, but I'll give it some time for people to upgrade Armory first.

how's the Ubuntu 12.04 version coming along?
2590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 11:45:49 AM
I like Konrad Graf:

http://pricesandmarkets.org/volume-3-issue-3-winter-2015/commodity-scarcity-and-monetary-value-theory-in-light-of-bitcoin/
2591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 11:28:49 AM
Gold threatening to fall below 1200 again; and quite possibly, for good.
2592  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 03:28:21 AM
i foresee the Trezor replacing the offline wallet and its pc and being more secure since the offline wallets can be susceptible to a USB malware attack.  as far as i know, there is no way to get privkeys off a Trezor so in that sense it is safer
I think this is a dangerous assumption to make.

Trezor has a larger attack surface than an offline laptop, since you have to plug it in directly to a potential hostile machine every time you use it.

You can reduce your attack surface with an offline laptop by using CD-R media instead of USB drives, or maybe by using the audio cable transfer method.

Trezor & Offline Armory multisig FTW Smiley

yeah, this would be.
2593  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 02:52:10 AM
"It's the Blockchain, not Bitcoin that's the real killer app." Debunked
http://www.joecoin.com/2015/02/crypto-20-and-other-misconceptions.html

nice find:

"As established above, any so-called feature that allows Bitcoin to play nice with competing tokens only serves to make it more vulnerable to being usurped.

The argument that Sidechains will promote a vibrant innovative cryptocurrency ecosystem is misguided at best and disingenuous at worst. Thus far, I've yet to see any charges of treason being discussed by Bitcoin's collective mind of core developers and mining pool decision makers. We'll see if it becomes wise before it's too late."


what am i?  chopped liver?
2594  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 24, 2015, 02:43:52 AM


How about any derived private key, which is not the root key? How serious a leak would that make? Does it compromise all the other private keys as well, if the attacker knows the chain code? (which I assumed is the same for both, private and public chains).


You should always assume that revealing a private key from a deterministic wallet will reveal all siblings.   In Armory wallets, if private key x is revealed with the chaincode, all private keys >= X+1 are revealed.

But I don't spend much time worrying about this.  We do not support or claim to support any use cases where private keys are intentionally revealed.  And if your wallet is unintentionally compromised, they will all be revealed anyway. 

Thanks for that just to clear up my understanding it is bad practice to distribute private keys from a deterministic wallet.

However is it still true one would need the chaincode and a private key from that chaincode to reveal the resulting private keys of the children keys?


2595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 23, 2015, 11:47:05 PM
After 1000s of Years Enjoying Gold Standard now Welcome to the Bitcoin Standard

http://blog.btcxindia.com/after-1000s-of-years-enjoying-gold-standard-now-welcome-to-the-bitcoin-standard/
2596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 23, 2015, 11:22:03 PM
Why would you need multiple trezors?

The seed is the key, the trezor is like a blank that can be loaded with any key, wiped then loaded with a different key.

In fact having loaded trezors around is riskier than having an empty one with seeds stored elsewhere, off-site, divided up etc.

it gets even more complicated than this.

turns out, you can have multiple wallets loaded into the Trezor all based off of one seed.  to do this, you click "Enable Passphrases" in advanced settings.  each time it asks you for the passphrase, enter in a different one, and you will generate multiple wallets.  a different passphrase acts like an additional 25th word of the original 24 word seed thus creating a new wallet.  you could deposit all your cold storage savings in one wallet then deposit 1-2 BTC in another.  then if someone rubber hoses you simply reveal the passphrase to the 1-2 BTC wallet for plausible deniability.  it's a clever little device.

now that you've posted this your denial is implausible, so I will use monkey wrench attack until I get at least 5 passwords from you (or you die). (sorry to put it that drastically. this is not really my plan, of course, just making a point)

If you want your money safe against such attack, you better have a component involved that you really "don't know" and that isn't "on you", like a seed in a safe somewhere. Shamirs secret sharing sounds like a good idea.

In the end, an attacker can always abduct a loved one and extort coins from you, no matter which way you have secured them.

There's nothing better for safety than a world in which everyone participates sufficiently in prosperity.


hey molecular,

next time you come over, look in the Altoid tin:



2597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 23, 2015, 10:45:46 PM
Why would you need multiple trezors?

The seed is the key, the trezor is like a blank that can be loaded with any key, wiped then loaded with a different key.

In fact having loaded trezors around is riskier than having an empty one with seeds stored elsewhere, off-site, divided up etc.

it gets even more complicated than this.

turns out, you can have multiple wallets loaded into the Trezor all based off of one seed.  to do this, you click "Enable Passphrases" in advanced settings.  each time it asks you for the passphrase, enter in a different one, and you will generate multiple wallets.  a different passphrase acts like an additional 25th word of the original 24 word seed thus creating a new wallet.  you could deposit all your cold storage savings in one wallet then deposit 1-2 BTC in another.  then if someone rubber hoses you simply reveal the passphrase to the 1-2 BTC wallet for plausible deniability.  it's a clever little device.

now that you've posted this your denial is implausible, so I will use monkey wrench attack until I get at least 5 passwords from you (or you die). (sorry to put it that drastically. this is not really my plan, of course, just making a point)

If you want your money safe against such attack, you better have a component involved that you really "don't know" and that isn't "on you", like a seed in a safe somewhere. Shamirs secret sharing sounds like a good idea.

In the end, an attacker can always abduct a loved one and extort coins from you, no matter which way you have secured them.

There's nothing better for safety than a world in which everyone participates sufficiently in prosperity.


Nowhere did I say I am  doing this. I'm just quoting from their help documents what is possible.
2598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 23, 2015, 09:43:01 PM
Why would you need multiple trezors?

The seed is the key, the trezor is like a blank that can be loaded with any key, wiped then loaded with a different key.

In fact having loaded trezors around is riskier than having an empty one with seeds stored elsewhere, off-site, divided up etc.

If I did get one this is how I'd use it too. Keep the "cold" wallets off trezor and secured as backups only, and keep the "hot" wallet on trezor for daily use.

I should have qualified that with a conditional, multiple trezors might be useful in respect of back-up hardware, in case one fails or for spoof wallet, leave one around with a few millibits in it to hand over to thugs gubmint or otherwise, etc.

you don't need the backup hardware.  just load the recovery seed into Mycelium.  totally compatible.
2599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 23, 2015, 09:40:21 PM
Why would you need multiple trezors?

The seed is the key, the trezor is like a blank that can be loaded with any key, wiped then loaded with a different key.

In fact having loaded trezors around is riskier than having an empty one with seeds stored elsewhere, off-site, divided up etc.

it gets even more complicated than this.

turns out, you can have multiple wallets loaded into the Trezor all based off of one seed.  to do this, you click "Enable Passphrases" in advanced settings.  each time it asks you for the passphrase, enter in a different one, and you will generate multiple wallets.  a different passphrase acts like an additional 25th word of the original 24 word seed thus creating a new wallet.  you could deposit all your cold storage savings in one wallet then deposit 1-2 BTC in another.  then if someone rubber hoses you simply reveal the passphrase to the 1-2 BTC wallet for plausible deniability.  it's a clever little device.
2600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 23, 2015, 09:14:59 PM
can the Trezor ppl see our balances and tx's while the Trezor is logged into myTrezor.com?

Out of curiosity, how do you guys plan on using your Trezor? I looked into them, like the idea and would like to get one, but couldn't see how a Trezor would fit into how I currently manage my BTC.

In my case I use Armory offline wallets for primary BTC storage, with secure HD seed backups so I'm confident I can always restore the wallets. For day to day usage I keep a small amount in Mycelium, and use this for buying pizza, etc. To fund Mycelium, in Armory I create spending addresses with a small amount of BTC and export the private key to Mycelium. The advantage to this is if I lose my phone, the BTC are recoverable in Armory or HD seed backups. The worse case is if someone steals and breaks my phone, I can only lose the amount on the phone (similar to cash in a real wallet). I like this method because: 1)  I can store and use BTC on my phone without worrying about losing the coins because they are simultaneously in Armory (which is an awesome property of Bitcoin) and 2) Only a small amount are ever "at risk", with the majority secure in Armory.

Because of this I can't see how a Trezor would fit. So how do you guys use it?

I use the trezor for both secure long-term storage and also for day-to-day spending. I actually think it's at least as secure a any armory (or other solution running on multipurpose hardware)-based solution. It's the nice thing about trezor: it combines ease of use with extreme security. In conjunction with electrum (as an example) I can also use address-based coin control for increasing privacy.

Of course, for ordering pizza or making the odd donation I use mycelium. It's just way faster (I make a habit of unplugging the trezor after use) and scanning qr-codes from the screen and seeing the payment arrive a second later has something very special to it.


now i believe that is not right.  i assume you have just one Trezor.  why carry around your long term storage for daily spending?  i assume it has a sizeable balance.  think rubber hosing...

I admit I have multiple trezors.

thatta boy Smiley
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